MUScoop

During the Nevada vs. Utah State game last night, the announcers mentioned that Utah State's Sam Merrill is on pace for  50/40/90 (FG%/3FG%/FT%) season this year and how rare that is in basketball. They didn't mention how often it happens in college basketball, but the pros they listed as achieving this were all very accomplished. It was guys like Reggie Miller, Larry Bird, and Steph Curry.

Markus is a guy who is probably capable of this, and wasn't too far off the mark in his freshman year. But his FG% has slipped each of the last two years and will likely be the biggest hurdle for him to join this elite club. What do you think, Scoop? Can he get there?

Quote from: skianth16 on January 03, 2019, 09:03:46 AM
During the Nevada vs. Utah State game last night, the announcers mentioned that Utah State's Sam Merrill is on pace ....................

Any relation to the legend?

I think Sam has a better shot, though I do not think either of them will do it.  Markus' too high a volume shooter to accomplish that, IMO.

I think he can do it if it's 50% 2FG / 40% 3FG / 90% FT

He probably shoots too many threes to get to 50% FG / 40% 3FG / 90% FT

But if anyone can do it, it's Markus

Quote from: Ellenson Family Reunion on January 03, 2019, 09:15:41 AM
I think he can do it if it's 50% 2FG / 40% 3FG / 90% FT

He probably shoots too many threes to get to 50% FG / 40% 3FG / 90% FT

But if anyone can do it, it's Markus

Right now his 2FG% and 3FG% are pretty similar. He's at 43.4% 2FG% and 42.1% 3FG%.

If he can cut down bad shots in the paint - you know, where he drives then jumps without knowing exactly what to do next - then he can really improve his 2FG% and overall FG%. And if he can initiate contact and draw fouls a bit better, his FG% is bound to go up as well. He's a got a shot, but it will probably mean he plays a little more conservatively for the rest of the year and/or next year.

Quote from: skianth16 on January 03, 2019, 09:39:16 AM
Right now his 2FG% and 3FG% are pretty similar. He's at 43.4% 2FG% and 42.1% 3FG%.

If he can cut down bad shots in the paint - you know, where he drives then jumps without knowing exactly what to do next - then he can really improve his 2FG% and overall FG%. And if he can initiate contact and draw fouls a bit better, his FG% is bound to go up as well. He's a got a shot, but it will probably mean he plays a little more conservatively for the rest of the year and/or next year.

Think this is pretty right.  If Markus has the mindset to go 50-40-90, I think he can get there, but his mentality (rightfully so) is to win games.  That means that he will have some games like UW this year, where he puts up a lot of points, and is a key contributor to us winning, but it takes a lot of shots to get there (averaging 16 shots per game this year).

The bigger question should be, can Joey get there this year?  He's 50-40-85 right now, and only taking 6 shots per, I could see him maintaining that all year.

His usage rate is just too high for me to see it happening. If it was going to happen, it would've been last year. His 3PFG% will drag his overall FG% down because as good as he is, the odds of hitting 50% again (remember when people were talking about him making 60%?) is pretty slim and he's always going to contend with a lot of contact when he drives.

I'm not too bothered, though, FG% isn't a very meaningful stat. eFG% is far more important (and a place where he could use some improvement this year, mainly due to his decline in 2PFG%).

Quote from: skianth16 on January 03, 2019, 09:39:16 AM
Right now his 2FG% and 3FG% are pretty similar. He's at 43.4% 2FG% and 42.1% 3FG%.

If he can cut down bad shots in the paint - you know, where he drives then jumps without knowing exactly what to do next - then he can really improve his 2FG% and overall FG%. And if he can initiate contact and draw fouls a bit better, his FG% is bound to go up as well. He's a got a shot, but it will probably mean he plays a little more conservatively for the rest of the year and/or next year.

Agree, it's just a math problem. Back of the envelope:

He attempts roughly 1:1 2FG to 3FG

If he shoots his 41% average over the last 2 years from 3 (which is excellent for the volume & degree of difficulty!), in order to get to 50% overall FG he'll have to hit 59% of his 2's for a full season, which is otherworldly for a 5'11" guy.

If he shoots 45% from 3 (which would mean we are winning a buttload of games, I hope it happens!) he'll have to hit 55% of his 2's (which he could do... he hit 53% 2FG last year).

But to get his #'s up to the second scenario this season, He'd probably have to shoot 49% from 3 & 67% from 2 from here on out. Which would be incredible.

I'm not putting it past him! If anyone can do it, it's Markus! Unlikely this year though with where he's at now. To get to 50% 2FG / 40 % 3FG / 90% FT this season, he'll have to just maintain his 3 & FT #'s and shoot ~57% from 2. Still a tall task but much more likely. (and for reference he already hit the 50 2FG / 40 3FG / 90 FT split last year)


If he's here next year, I think he has a very good shot to do it with overall FG%. With the addition of Koby & Elliott he'll have to take less contested/late shot clock/nothing happening type of shots that drag the overall FG% down.

Quote from: brewcity77 on January 03, 2019, 10:05:07 AM
His usage rate is just too high for me to see it happening. If it was going to happen, it would've been last year. His 3PFG% will drag his overall FG% down because as good as he is, the odds of hitting 50% again (remember when people were talking about him making 60%?) is pretty slim and he's always going to contend with a lot of contact when he drives.

I'm not too bothered, though, FG% isn't a very meaningful stat. eFG% is far more important (and a place where he could use some improvement this year, mainly due to his decline in 2PFG%).

eFG% may be more meaningful, but it doesn't mean FG% isn't important. I get that the game is becoming more geared toward 3's in general, and MU fans may lean more toward eFG% because we're a heavy 3 pt shooting team, but if a guy is shooting 50%+ from the field, he's having a darn good year.

Quote from: skianth16 on January 03, 2019, 10:38:43 AM
eFG% may be more meaningful, but it doesn't mean FG% isn't important. I get that the game is becoming more geared toward 3's in general, and MU fans may lean more toward eFG% because we're a heavy 3 pt shooting team, but if a guy is shooting 50%+ from the field, he's having a darn good year.

Maybe. Probably. The difference is eFG% gives you context. If you have two guys, Player A that shoots 50% from the field and Player B that shoots 40%, logic tells you that you want to feed Player A. But if all of Player A's attempts are from 2 and all Player B's attempts are from 3, you want to put it in the hands of Player B as often as possible because his 60 eFG% is vastly superior to Player A's 50 eFG%.

FG% just doesn't tell you very much, especially now that we have better tools available.

Quote from: Ellenson Family Reunion on January 03, 2019, 09:15:41 AM
I think he can do it if it's 50% 2FG / 40% 3FG / 90% FT

He did this last year.

Quote from: Ellenson Family Reunion on January 03, 2019, 09:15:41 AM

He probably shoots too many threes to get to 50% FG / 40% 3FG / 90% FT

But if anyone can do it, it's Markus

Markus almost did this as a frosh.  88.9% at the line. 50.6% FG even though he was sub-50% on 2's.  That's how good he was on 3's.

Quote from: brewcity77 on January 03, 2019, 10:51:30 AM
Maybe. Probably. The difference is eFG% gives you context. If you have two guys, Player A that shoots 50% from the field and Player B that shoots 40%, logic tells you that you want to feed Player A. But if all of Player A's attempts are from 2 and all Player B's attempts are from 3, you want to put it in the hands of Player B as often as possible because his 60 eFG% is vastly superior to Player A's 50 eFG%.

FG% just doesn't tell you very much, especially now that we have better tools available.

Sure, when you take extreme examples like a guy who only shoots 3's and does so very well, then you get big differences in FG% vs. eFG%. I get why it's becoming the go-to metric, but again, if a guy has a solid FG%, that still shows that he's playing well and playing efficiently. Yes, eFG gives you more context, but I don't think that means FG% is useless.

Quote from: Lazar's Headband on January 03, 2019, 10:52:02 AM
He did this last year.

Markus almost did this as a frosh.  88.9% at the line. 50.6% FG even though he was sub-50% on 2's.  That's how good he was on 3's.

Quote from: Ellenson Family Reunion on January 03, 2019, 10:18:28 AM
(and for reference he already hit the 50 2FG / 40 3FG / 90 FT split last year)

Got it covered!

Quote from: Ellenson Family Reunion on January 03, 2019, 10:18:28 AM
If he's here next year, I think he has a very good shot to do it with overall FG%. With the addition of Koby & Elliott he'll have to take less contested/late shot clock/nothing happening type of shots that drag the overall FG% down.

I think he's here next year, and I think you're right that the addition of Koby will take some pressure off Markus, allowing him to take fewer contested shots. I don't see a way for him to get there this year given the way our offense is built and Markus being the only guy who can really create his own shot consistently. He has to be a volume guy this year, but I think that can change next year.

Quote from: Ellenson Family Reunion on January 03, 2019, 11:10:14 AM
Got it covered!

Doh!