Now that non-conference play is mostly done, I'm curious how everyone sees the league shaking out in 2019. Records not needed. Here's mine:
1) Marquette 15-3
2) Villanova 12-6
3) Seton Hall 11-7
4) Creighton 10-8
5) Butler 10-8
6) Providence 9-9
7) St John's 8-10
8) DePaul 6-12
9) Xavier 5-13
10) Georgetown 4-14
Long time lurker here finally registered. I've been to all three games against the top 15 opponents. The home court advantage displayed is more than people think it is. It was loud for Kansas St, Wisconsin and Buffalo. I don't see them losing a home game this season. I would agree with Brew City on 3 losses.
Going 9-0 at home and 6-3 on the road. I think they might slip up against Villanova, Seton hall and St, Johns. I wouldn't have said St Johns if Seton Hall hadn't played them a few days earlier. I don't think St. Johns has played anyone good and had Marquette been the first team in conference I would have felt better since MU could have punched them in the mouth first before SH. Realistically I think this team can get a 2 seed if they just hold suit at home.
15-3?!?!?
I think that's a little high.
I do think we are the favorites tho. I'm hoping more for 13-5
1. Villanova 13-5
2. Marquette 13-5
3. Butler 12-6
4. St. John's 11-7
5. Creighton 9-9
6. Providence 9-9
7. Seton Hall 9-9
8. Xavier 5-13
9. DePaul 5-13
10. Georgetown 4-14
This is based on the assumption that Reeves (PC) and Keita (SJU) come back and are contributors.
Thoughts on the league...
Villanova: Expecting mixed early results, but a late push will get them around the 5/6 line and look like an incredibly dangerous team.
Seton Hall: The team I was most wrong on. Powell is the most likely challenger to Howard's BEPOY bid. Solid tourney team.
Creighton: Think Marquette 2016-2018. Offense will steal some games, defense will lose some. Bubble team.
Butler: As Kamar Baldwin goes, so go the Bulldogs. He's been terrible in their losses and great in their wins. Probably a tourney team.
Providence: This is the team that will beat some of the top teams but lose to the bottom. They don't really do anything particularly well. They look like a NIT team.
St. John's: When you're undefeated & your Pomeroy ranking has dropped for a month, that screams paper tiger. No size & haven't beat anyone of significance. Maybe not as severe, but I expect a repeat of last year's strong start & precipitous fall.
DePaul: Dave Leitao's best DePaul team in his second go around.
Xavier: They just haven't beat anyone.
Georgetown: They also haven't beat anyone, and have two freshmen in the backcourt.
We are going 13-5.
Yeah, I'm in the 13-5 camp too. I think there are bumps in the road for a team that has not had excessive winning experience and might lapse a little, like after the big win against Nova. I hope most fans here have a tighter grip on the Wagon if this happens.
Here's the thing... for the last couple years we said we'll win one or two we probably shouldn't (on paper) but we'll also lose at least one or two that we probably shouldn't.
Now this year, to whom are we supposed to lose? I actually think we're better than every BEAST team on any given day... but if we run into the best teams (X/Nova) on a day that we're not hitting shots and Markus cant find cheat mode then we'll lose... but in fact we should not.
The games I worry about are DePaul and Providence. Providence because they have athleticism and aggressiveness (and in my opinion great coaching) that they can game plan to beat anyone. And DePaul because we don't seem to take them seriously.
Bottom line is that we need to win all the home games (no mistakes) and lose only 4 of the road games. I predict we'll lose on the road at X, Nova, DePaul, and PC. 14-4.
12-6. More road losses than we would like.
Quote from: tower912 on December 23, 2018, 10:31:09 AM
12-6. More road losses than we would like.
I think so as well. I predict 8-1 at home and 4-5 on the road (but obviously would be glad to be wrong).
Here is our road records in this conference so far:
Nova: 0-5
Butler: 0-5
St. Johns: 1-4
Xavier: 1-4
Providence: 2-3
Georgetown: 2-3
DePaul: 3-2
Creighton: 3-2
Seton Hall: 3-2
Total: 15-30
Quote from: AirPunch on December 23, 2018, 10:34:50 AM
I think so as well. I predict 8-1 at home and 4-5 on the road (but obviously would be glad to be wrong).
Agree. We're going to lose one at the Chaluparena, because Arby's. 8-1
4 or 5 wins on the road.
We'll lose a game we're not supposed to, win one also.
12 or 13 wins .. And that's if Markus stays healthy.
12-6. Winning on the road is tough. We will not be the dog in many conference games. Crowds will be fired up to knock us off. I think 12-6 is reasonable.
13-5 or 12-6 sounds right. The conference is certainly down this year but 15-3 is a little far fetched, IMO. Will be interesting to see how this team does in their first few road games in conference.
We've only played one road game so far and got throttled by a solid, not great Indiana team. I think the team has improved since then but there are plenty of places where it is not easy to win in this conference- even if it is a down year for some of those teams.
Quote from: tower912 on December 23, 2018, 10:31:09 AM
12-6. More road losses than we would like.
I still don't see it. Name the teams we lose to on the road. I have Nova and Butler forsure and maybe St. John's but other than that I really don't see who they lose to.
Quote from: ChitownSpaceForRent on December 23, 2018, 12:04:33 PM
I still don't see it. Name the teams we lose to on the road. I have Nova and Butler forsure and maybe St. John's but other than that I really don't see who they lose to.
I think you are underestimating how difficult it is to win the the road in CBB. We are no longer the underdog. We will go into almost every venue with a target on our backs. First time in the Wojo era. Will be fun but every game will be a battle.
Quote from: ChitownSpaceForRent on December 23, 2018, 12:04:33 PM
I still don't see it. Name the teams we lose to on the road. I have Nova and Butler forsure and maybe St. John's but other than that I really don't see who they lose to.
MU managed to lose to Depaul on the road last year. Any road game is a battle. It is simply my opinion that we lose more road games than we win. I'm not going to go game by game and predict.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on December 23, 2018, 09:22:57 AM
1. Villanova 13-5
2. Marquette 13-5
3. Butler 12-6
4. St. John's 11-7
5. Creighton 9-9
6. Providence 9-9
7. Seton Hall 9-9
8. Xavier 5-13
9. DePaul 5-13
10. Georgetown 4-14
This is based on the assumption that Reeves (PC) and Keita (SJU) come back and are contributors.
That's discouraging. In 2013, Georgetown was #5 in the country. Now, it's drawing DePaul-sized crowds.
MU 2nd. Nova still team to beat, best talent but they are younger than they normally are. We can become too one dimensional at times. If we can get over that, than we become team to beat.
Seton Hall looks better then anticipated.......Creighton gave Gonzaga everything they wanted in Omaha.
Butler is good......Nova will be tough.....Providence just won at Texas and will get Reaves back.
I don't see 15-3.
Marquette is the class of the league. Have experience in key spots, depth, versatility, and have the best balance on both sides of the game. Think 14 is the ceiling in terms of wins. Conference will be much tighter then it's ever been.
Nova and Butler next.
Johnnies and PC.
Hall, DePaul, Jays.
Hoyas and X.
Quote from: ChitownSpaceForRent on December 23, 2018, 12:04:33 PM
I still don't see it. Name the teams we lose to on the road. I have Nova and Butler forsure and maybe St. John's but other than that I really don't see who they lose to.
I agree with your two "forsure" road losses. On top of that, I think we will be a dog at St. John's. I think we will be pretty close to a pick em at Seton Hall, Providence, Creighton and Xavier. MU also manages to lose at least one "WTF" game a season and I think at DePaul and at Georgetown are great candidates for that this season. I think there are 5-6 possible road losses in there.
Like nova the last few years, I'd youre the top dog in the league, you get everyone's best efforts every game. This will lead to a few L's we are. It anticipating.
1) Marquette 13-5
2) Villanova 12-6
3) Seton Hall 11-7
Butler 11-7
5) St John's 10-8
6) Providence 8-10
Creighton 8-10
8) Xavier 7-11
9) DePaul 5-13
Georgetown 5-13
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on December 23, 2018, 01:40:39 PMI agree with your two "forsure" road losses.
I don't think there are any "for sure" road losses. I think we'll lose some games, but none are certain. Villanova already lost twice at the Pavilion and has shown the ability to lose to anyone. They also have the ability to beat anyone, but we could certainly win there.
Same goes with Butler. Everyone thinks they are invincible at Hinkle, but that's just because they beat 'Nova a couple times there and Marquette hasn't won there since realignment. Fun fact...Marquette is the ONLY Big East team that hasn't won a game at Hinkle. Fun Fact 2...Butler has never won more than 6 home conference games in a season at Hinkle since realignment. That doesn't mean we will win there, but it's not the fortress it's made out to be.
In terms of talent and depth, I do believe that if we stay healthy, we will be the best team on the floor in every game we play from now until March 21st with the possible exception of Villanova if they put it all together. That certainly doesn't mean we'll win every game, but we will have a chance to win every game.
That said, we could lose 5 or 6 on the road and it wouldn't shock me. There also isn't a team in the league, DePaul, Xavier, and Georgetown included, that I think are automatic wins on the road.
I am worried about:
@SJU - when is the last time we won in NY? A couple of years ago at MSG it was the worst game I've ever seen MU play in person.
@Creighton
@Butler - McDermott flops like Davison
@Prov
@Nova
9-0 at home, avoid one of these and it's 14-4. Should be good enough.
Brew, completely agree. There are no unwinnable games left. I only meant that we will almost certainly be dogs in those two games.
I also don't believe that Butler is invincible at home, but I won't believe that we will beat them until we do. They have had Wojos number. I feel the same way about Creighton beating us
1 MU 14-4 -I can't believe I'm saying this
2 Creighton 13-5
3 Seton Hall 11-7
4 Nova 10-8
5 Butler 10-8
6 StJ 8-10
7 GT 6-12
8 Prov 6-12
9 DePaul 6-12
10 Xavier 6-12
7-10 was a mess so I have them all at 6-12. One of em will be worse and one better.
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 23, 2018, 09:28:25 AM
Thoughts on the league...
Villanova: Expecting mixed early results, but a late push will get them around the 5/6 line and look like an incredibly dangerous team.
Seton Hall: The team I was most wrong on. Powell is the most likely challenger to Howard's BEPOY bid. Solid tourney team.
Creighton: Think Marquette 2016-2018. Offense will steal some games, defense will lose some. Bubble team.
Butler: As Kamar Baldwin goes, so go the Bulldogs. He's been terrible in their losses and great in their wins. Probably a tourney team.
Providence: This is the team that will beat some of the top teams but lose to the bottom. They don't really do anything particularly well. They look like a NIT team.
St. John's: When you're undefeated & your Pomeroy ranking has dropped for a month, that screams paper tiger. No size & haven't beat anyone of significance. Maybe not as severe, but I expect a repeat of last year's strong start & precipitous fall.
DePaul: Dave Leitao's best DePaul team in his second go around.
Xavier: They just haven't beat anyone.
Georgetown: They also haven't beat anyone, and have two freshmen in the backcourt.
Dead wrong on ST johns, just because they have played a weak schedule doesnt mean they are a paper tiger. Doesnt mean they are not either. Bottom line is we dont know.
From what ive seen they are a top 5 team in the league. They had a really solid finish to the end of last year. Added figueroa who is a really nice player and heron who was the best player on a top 10 team last year.
Quote from: GrimmReaper33 on December 23, 2018, 11:59:50 AM
13-5 or 12-6 sounds right. The conference is certainly down this year but 15-3 is a little far fetched, IMO. Will be interesting to see how this team does in their first few road games in conference.
We've only played one road game so far and got throttled by a solid, not great Indiana team. I think the team has improved since then but there are plenty of places where it is not easy to win in this conference- even if it is a down year for some of those teams.
Indian is much better than ur goving the credit for. With that ssid game was lost in the first 5 minutes. They have two first round draft picks and some other really nice pieces. How many teams have two draft picks
Quote from: MUBigDance on December 23, 2018, 07:05:42 PM
1 MU 14-4 -I can't believe I'm saying this
2 Creighton 13-5
3 Seton Hall 11-7
4 Nova 10-8
5 Butler 10-8
6 StJ 8-10
7 GT 6-12
8 Prov 6-12
9 DePaul 6-12
10 Xavier 6-12
7-10 was a mess so I have them all at 6-12. One of em will be worse and one better.
Huh???
This im guessing might be the worst projection of them all
Quote from: Mr. Sand-Knit on December 23, 2018, 07:42:30 PMDead wrong on ST johns, just because they have played a weak schedule doesnt mean they are a paper tiger. Doesnt mean they are not either. Bottom line is we dont know.
Well, they're predictions, so duh we don't know. But St. John's doesn't look remotely as good as their record. They struggled with Cal, Bowling Green, and Georgia Tech. VCU has not been good and SJU needed a comeback & overtime.
What I said is they keep winning & their rating keeps dropping. What that means is that while they are getting wins, they are doing so in a fashion that indicates they're not as good as the results they've posted. All the other undefeated teams have either seen their rankings hold firm or improve significantly as new data comes in. St. John's, on the other hand, has dropped sharply while playing one of the worst schedules in the country (#344 per Pomeroy).
Yes, they could prove to be as good as their record, but that's not what the data to date indicates. And having watched them a few times against some pretty bad teams, I have not been impressed. They have some talent, but are poorly coached and undersized.
Quote from: mileskishnish72 on December 23, 2018, 04:27:47 PM
I am worried about:
@SJU - when is the last time we won in NY? A couple of years ago at MSG it was the worst game I've ever seen MU play in person.
@Creighton
@Butler - McDermott flops like Davison
@Prov
@Nova
9-0 at home, avoid one of these and it's 14-4. Should be good enough.
2016 we beat SJ on the road and in the BET at MSG.
Barring major injury I'd say our floor is 12-6.
Ceiling? Maybe 16-2.
Prediction: 14-4
Seton Hall was probably underrated to start the year
Now quickly becoming overrated
I will say 13-5. Winning on the road is hard.
Quote from: PGsHeroes32 on December 24, 2018, 12:44:55 AM
Seton Hall was probably underrated to start the year
Now quickly becoming overrated
This. I was in the camp that thought they would be terrible. But let's not get too excited yet. Actually looking forward to that SHU/Johnnie game although I probably won't see it.
Pomeroy has it
Team Conf
Villanova 12-6
Butler 11-7
Marquette 11-7
Creighton 10-8
St. John's 9-9
Seton Hall 9-9
Providence 8-10
Xavier 8-10
DePaul 6-12
Georgetown 6-12
Quote from: WarriorDad on December 24, 2018, 10:18:52 AM
Pomeroy has it
Team Conf
Villanova 12-6
Butler 11-7
Marquette 11-7
Creighton 10-8
St. John's 9-9
Seton Hall 9-9
Providence 8-10
Xavier 8-10
DePaul 6-12
Georgetown 6-12
I think for once Pomeroy is short changing us. I think our floor is 12-6 and an outside chance of going 14-4. Looking at Sagarin's numbers:
Home: 8-1 (favored in all of them)
Has DePaul and G'Town to be the road locks: 2-0
Has pick-em games at Xavier, Hall, St. John's, Providence: If you go 2-2 there
Then the remaining road games where he has us as a dog (Creighton, Butler, Nova). Maybe steal one?
That would be 13-5.
Quote from: Mr. Sand-Knit on December 23, 2018, 07:49:42 PM
Huh???
This im guessing might be the worst projection of them all
Love it.
By the way Sand-knit. For someone with strong opinions on others, I don't see your 10? Don't be "head in the
Sand, sitting by
Knitting"
😜
Villanova 13-5
MU 12-6
The Hall 11-7
Providence 10-8
Butler 9-9
The Johnnies 9-9
Creighton 8-10
Georgetown 7-11
Xavier 6-12
DePaul 5-13
If there is upside to this , the wins will come at the expense of Xavier and DePaul . I actually think Xavier may be worse than DePaul but I am still giving them credit for their home court advantage.
1) Marquette 15-3
2) Villanova 15-3
3) Butler 12-6
4) Seton Hall 11-7
5) St. John's 9-9
6) Providence 9-9
7) Creighton 9-9
8) Xavier 5-13
9) Georgetown 3-15
10) DePaul 2-16
Bump.
Quote from: Lennys Tap on December 23, 2018, 10:20:08 PM
Barring major injury I'd say our floor is 12-6.
Ceiling? Maybe 16-2.
Prediction: 14-4
With 4 games left we were 12-2, our ceiling (16-2) and floor(12-6) established. Didn't see the floor materializing from there. Oh well...
Quote from: Mr. Sand-Knit on December 23, 2018, 07:42:30 PM
Dead wrong on ST johns
You know why I didn't bring this up repeatedly all year like you did? Because all the blathering you did the past three months was meaningless. I missed plenty, but I was dead right on St John's. 7th place, 8-10 in the league.
Quote from: brewcity77 on March 09, 2019, 09:33:07 PM
You know why I didn't bring this up repeatedly all year like you did? Because all the blathering you did the past three months was meaningless. I missed plenty, but I was dead right on St John's. 7th place, 8-10 in the league.
Kick his ass Seabass
Quote from: WarriorDad on December 24, 2018, 10:18:52 AM
Pomeroy has it
Team Conf
Villanova 12-6
Butler 11-7
Marquette 11-7
Creighton 10-8
St. John's 9-9
Seton Hall 9-9
Providence 8-10
Xavier 8-10
DePaul 6-12
Georgetown 6-12
Butler and Georgetown were big misses but the rest were within one game or dead on.
Quote from: tower912 on December 23, 2018, 10:31:09 AM
12-6. More road losses than we would like.
Nailed it. The manner in which it came to be was painful.
Quote from: brewcity77 on March 09, 2019, 09:33:07 PM
You know why I didn't bring this up repeatedly all year like you did? Because all the blathering you did the past three months was meaningless. I missed plenty, but I was dead right on St John's. 7th place, 8-10 in the league.
Trump card ishyude
Before the season I was thinking around 11 to 13 wins in the BE. After the St. John's game I would have said 9-9. At 12-2 I would have said 15-3. I honestly don't expect a win at MSG but hope I'm wrong.
Quote from: Herman Cain on December 24, 2018, 01:57:28 PM
Villanova 13-5
MU 12-6
The Hall 11-7
Providence 10-8
Butler 9-9
The Johnnies 9-9
Creighton 8-10
Georgetown 7-11
Xavier 6-12
DePaul 5-13
If there is upside to this , the wins will come at the expense of Xavier and DePaul . I actually think Xavier may be worse than DePaul but I am still giving them credit for their home court advantage.
Pretty solid.