MUScoop

MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: BM1090 on November 30, 2018, 03:39:45 PM

Title: Marquette opens -2 vs. Kansas State
Post by: BM1090 on November 30, 2018, 03:39:45 PM
https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaab/kansas-state-marquette-odds-december-1-2018-1045912?utm_source=pickpapa
Title: Re: Marquette opens -2 vs. Kansas State
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on November 30, 2018, 04:05:12 PM
Honestly surprised. I think that's right, but I assumed that Vegas would favor K-State.
Title: Re: Marquette opens -2 vs. Kansas State
Post by: Floorslapper on November 30, 2018, 04:20:02 PM
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on November 30, 2018, 04:05:12 PM
Honestly surprised. I think that's right, but I assumed that Vegas would favor K-State.

I've noticed Vegas lines over the last few years almost are the exact same as projected Pomeroy.  However, KenPom has us favored by just 1, not 2.
Title: Re: Marquette opens -2 vs. Kansas State
Post by: BM1090 on November 30, 2018, 04:22:58 PM
Quote from: Floorslapper on November 30, 2018, 04:20:02 PM
I've noticed Vegas lines over the last few years almost are the exact same as projected Pomeroy.  However, KenPom has us favored by just 1, not 2.

Yeah, they are definitely usually within a point or two. Once in awhile you'll see a 3 or 4 and that's when Vegas typically has an edge that the rest of us don't
Title: Re: Marquette opens -2 vs. Kansas State
Post by: Floorslapper on November 30, 2018, 08:06:32 PM
Quote from: MUeagle1090 on November 30, 2018, 04:22:58 PM
Yeah, they are definitely usually within a point or two. Once in awhile you'll see a 3 or 4 and that's when Vegas typically has an edge that the rest of us don't

True.  I've frequently bet those games taking the "extra" points per the Pomeroy model, and yet my winning percentage on those bets as I recall doesn't seem to exceed a 50% winning percentage.


Title: Re: Marquette opens -2 vs. Kansas State
Post by: esotericmindguy on November 30, 2018, 10:51:17 PM
Quote from: Floorslapper on November 30, 2018, 08:06:32 PM
True.  I've frequently bet those games taking the "extra" points per the Pomeroy model, and yet my winning percentage on those bets as I recall doesn't seem to exceed a 50% winning percentage.

Yeah. My friend and I used to do Teaser bets with Kenpom. Find a 4 point differential and move it another 4 points. We had good luck with it
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