MUScoop

Earlier this year many posted their game by game predictions. Quite a few incorporated a loss to Indiana in their projections. We have also seen how the rest of the Big East is performing.  The question is have your expectations for the teams performance  for the full year changed?.

I'm answering based on the question posed in the post rather than how it's phrased in the poll. My expectations have been a top-3 finish in league and a comfortable NCAA seed so when Selection Sunday comes, we aren't worried about if we're in but rather what line we'll be on. I feel that's a 7 or better. However just as important is seeing some actual progress from the defense. I don't think any of my original expectations are unrealistic, but I also haven't seen the consistency to convince me we're going to meet the ones I started with.

Regardless, the expectations I have aren't going to change regardless of results. If we don't get there, though, I think it is time to revisit our coaching situation.

Nope.  May want to wait and revisit this upon completion of non conference play, not four games.  Way too early. 

Quote from: nyg on November 18, 2018, 04:01:21 PM
Nope.  May want to wait and revisit this upon completion of non conference play, not four games.  Way too early.

This. 

Quote from: nyg on November 18, 2018, 04:01:21 PM
Nope.  May want to wait and revisit this upon completion of non conference play, not four games.  Way too early.

Yup. The overreactions here are incredible.

Yes based on results. No based on eye test. Way too early for any legitimate answer, but were we ever going to win at Assembly Hall? My expectations moving forward in non conference is a split this week, and winning 2 of 3 against KSU, UW and Buffalo. 3 losses heading into conference play. All "good losses" and a few quality wins.

3-1. After watching IU, I predicted a double digit loss for MU. 
Disappointments:  size of loss to IU.
Flow of offense and bad 3 OT shooting.
Morrow, Chartouny
Better than expected:  defense
Joey.
Theo, when not in foul trouble.

I expected us to be 3-1 at this point.  From that perspective, met expectations. 

Yes. Lots of people jumping off the wagon amazing.

IU was a mess. I'll agree there.
But they have met mine so far. My largest concern is the offense. It has just seemed to awkward so far this season.

Have my overall expectations changed based on four games and an exhibition? No. Not enough data.

Expectations for individual players? Still too little data. Just look at Chartouny, yesterday about Noon the expectation of most seemed to be that he was a wasted scholarship. Three hours later, many seemed to be looking at him as the savior of the season.

I will say that my biggest concern so far (I won't say disappointment because there is plenty of season to turn it around) is Morrow. He was a beast at Nebraska and has looked timid at times and has had several bad brain farts in limited minutes. Was expecting big things from him. When he's locked in, he might be the best defender that we have. Really like what he brings on that side of the floor. Has to not be an offensive liability.

I have been pleasantly surprised so far by Cain, Theo, and Joey. Joey is a lot more dynamic than I thought he would be and Cain/John have both taken big steps from their freshman campaigns. Everyone else is relatively close to what I expected. My concern for Morrow unfortunately is much larger than the pleasant surprises of Joey, Cain and John.

Quote from: tower912 on November 18, 2018, 04:16:52 PM
3-1. After watching IU, I predicted a double digit loss for MU. 
Disappointments:  size of loss to IU.
Flow of offense and bad 3 OT shooting.
Morrow, Chartouny
Better than expected:  defense
Joey.
Theo, when not in foul trouble.

Holy crap, are you serious with that comment?  How low were your expectations?  We played one team with a pulse and they put up 96 points in 75 possessions.

My biggest disappointment so far is Markus.  He has not become a reliable point guard and seems to be much slower than last year, or we never realized that most of his open shots were because of Rowsey. 

Quote from: GrimmReaper33 on November 18, 2018, 07:34:52 PM
Holy crap, are you serious with that comment?  How low were your expectations?  We played one team with a pulse and they put up 96 points in 75 possessions.

Yeah, it's only ranked 54th in the nation. Come on.

 4 games in...? 

  What I have noticed however, MU players seem to have the lowest tattoo per capita of most teams.  I mean since katin graduated, our numbers and per square inch covered has markedly dropped off.  Theo has some ink goin on, but I've heard the trend is going away from that stuff.  if one wants to make some decent coin going forward, learn how to remove them; laser or...?

Quote from: PTM on November 18, 2018, 07:46:59 PM
Yeah, it's only ranked 54th in the nation. Come on.

The numbers from the 3 cupcakes are completely meaningless.  Like I said, the one team they played with a pulse lit them up.  Let's see what the defensive ranking looks like after KU, KSU, UW, Buff, etc.  I'm going to guess it won't be 54th in the country.

Quote from: GrimmReaper33 on November 18, 2018, 08:07:41 PM
The numbers from the 3 cupcakes are completely meaningless.  Like I said, the one team they played with a pulse lit them up.  Let's see what the defensive ranking looks like after KU, KSU, UW, Buff, etc.  I'm going to guess it won't be 54th in the country.

Except they aren't meaningless, because last year we sucked against cupcakes too.

Didn't realize until I watched replays of some of the games that we are switching almost all ball screens now

Quote from: GrimmReaper33 on November 18, 2018, 07:34:52 PM
Holy crap, are you serious with that comment?  How low were your expectations?  We played one team with a pulse and they put up 96 points in 75 possessions.

Quote from: GrimmReaper33 on November 18, 2018, 08:07:41 PM
The numbers from the 3 cupcakes are completely meaningless.  Like I said, the one team they played with a pulse lit them up.  Let's see what the defensive ranking looks like after KU, KSU, UW, Buff, etc.  I'm going to guess it won't be 54th in the country.

Go back last season and see how are defense did against the cupcakes (even against exhibition Lindenwood). There's reasons to be encouraged. The Indiana game is a big reason to be discouraged.

Also, the D-Rating stats adjust for strength of opponent. It is early so I wouldn't quote that 54th ranking as gospel truth either.

Four data points. Gives us some hints but hardly a clear picture.

Quote from: GrimmReaper33 on November 18, 2018, 07:34:52 PM
Holy crap, are you serious with that comment?  How low were your expectations?  We played one team with a pulse and they put up 96 points in 75 possessions.

Indiana can do that to teams in their building.  Defense has improved, but must improve much much more to be successful this season.

Quote from: rocket surgeon on November 18, 2018, 08:06:36 PM
4 games in...? 

  What I have noticed however, MU players seem to have the lowest tattoo per capita of most teams.  I mean since katin graduated, our numbers and per square inch covered has markedly dropped off.  Theo has some ink goin on, but I've heard the trend is going away from that stuff.  if one wants to make some decent coin going forward, learn how to remove them; laser or...?

+100 Very funny, doc!

Quote from: WarriorDad on November 18, 2018, 08:47:47 PM
Indiana can do that to teams in their building.  Defense has improved, but must improve much much more to be successful this season.

Great point.  Because Indiana couldn't do it in their loss on the road tonight against #55 Arkansas - just .95 points per possession, as compared to the 1.28 points per possession at home against our markedly improved defense (according to the Scoop Intelligencia)  That Assembly Hall advantage is no doubt uuge.

As for MU this season:  The Big East is awful - getting pummeled by Top 20 caliber teams.  My guess is a 3rd place finish, despite the league being WAY down.

May sneak into the NCAA as a 10 seed.  Chances of us winning a game in the NCAA if* we even make it?  <30%.

If that Indiana had showed up we would have looked better. We wouldn't have won but would have been better. Indiana also lost Juwan Morgan to foul trouble in the first two minutes of the first half. Didn't play again until the second.

It's usually not wise to put so much emphasis on a single data point.

Quote from: rocket surgeon on November 18, 2018, 08:06:36 PM
MU players seem to have the lowest tattoo per capita of most teams.  I mean since katin graduated, our numbers and per square inch covered has markedly dropped off.  Theo has some ink goin on, but I've heard the trend is going away from that stuff.  if one wants to make some decent coin going forward, learn how to remove them; laser or...?

I donno, Ed has picked up a lot of ink since his time in Nebraska.  It's just not on his arms...

(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/n244SFgOykE/maxresdefault.jpg)

Quote from: rocky_warrior on November 19, 2018, 12:07:48 AM
I donno, Ed has picked up a lot of ink since his time in Nebraska.  It's just not on his arms...

(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/n244SFgOykE/maxresdefault.jpg)

  Not just on his arms?  Hmmm...either tmi or you guys must be pretty tight then eyn'a? 😜

Given that several key rotation players are seeing their first real court time for MU (Chartouny, Joey, Morrow, Bailey), I expected that things would be bumpy and inconsistent in November and perhaps into December. This team has met those expectations so far.

Hard to interpert the results of this poll.  There are four possibilities.

1) Had low expectations and met expectations.

2 Had high expectations and met expectations.

3) Had low expectations and exceeded those expectations.

4) Had high expectations and did not meet those expections.

For me I had high expectations so I fell under category 4. Would be interesting to see how many fell into category 2.

Honestly, my expectation for this season to this point changed because I watched IU play a cupcake at home.  It was obvious IU was quicker and playing at home.   So that game basically met my revised expectations, not because of MU, but because IU at home was better than I had thought they would be two weeks prior. The three MU cupcake games went fine. 

Quote from: TAMU Eagle on November 18, 2018, 11:29:20 PM
If that Indiana had showed up we would have looked better. We wouldn't have won but would have been better. Indiana also lost Juwan Morgan to foul trouble in the first two minutes of the first half. Didn't play again until the second.

It's usually not wise to put so much emphasis on a single data point.

We need to stop getting so unlucky.  That aside, Archie must have done some really good coaching in the first half having lost Morgan, to only have been trailing by 3 at the half on the road, 38-35.  As I recall our more experienced squad was down 13 at the half at IU with its full complement of players available.

It's usually not wise to put so much emphasis on finding excuses to justify continued mediocre performance.

Quote from: Floorslapper on November 19, 2018, 09:28:20 AM
We need to stop getting so unlucky.

We get as lucky and unlucky as anybody else. Some nights we will face teams playing near the ceiling, some nights we will get them playing near their floor. Most nights they will be somewhere in between. As much as I loved the Villanova win we absolutely caught them on an off night and took advantage.

Quote from: Floorslapper on November 19, 2018, 09:28:20 AM
That aside, Archie must have done some really good coaching in the first half having lost Morgan, to only have been trailing by 3 at the half on the road, 38-35.  As I recall our more experienced squad was down 13 at the half at IU with its full complement of players available.

Archie is a great coach. I don't know anyone who has said otherwise. I'm also sure you are aware that the transitive property is not a thing in sports.

My expectations based on feedback about some of our new guys were high for the non-conference schedule. Hearing that Morrow was the best guy in practice a few times last year, and then over the summer hearing that Bailey was looking like a starter had be thinking we'd start the year strong. I also thought Chartouny would be a starter from Day 1 because all his tape showed him as a much more comfortable PG than Markus. And while we are now seeing what JC is capable of, we still haven't seen Morrow or Bailey looking like starter-caliber Big East guys. They may get there, but if it takes them some time, we may end up losing a few games that I initially thought we'd win.

I came into the season thinking we would win all our non-conference home games. I saw 1 or 2 losses heading into conference play. I thought we'd hang with IU and have a good chance at winning that one (add in IU injuries, and then I really thought we could win). I assumed we'd go 1-1 in NYC, and I still think that will happen. But with the slower than expected start for some of our new guys, and even for some of our returning players, I think we'll drop a game or two at home to one of UW, KSU, and Buffalo.

Were my expectations too high? Maybe. But with the all the talent we've heard we have on this roster, I thought this was finally going to be a breakthrough year. It could still be, and we may see these guys flip a switch this week. But from what we've seen so far, it looks like it's going to take a while for this group (players and coaches) to really hit their stride. A strong close out to conference play and a good showing in March will certainly outweigh early season stumbles, so I'm hoping for that. I'm just not sure I'm betting on it just yet.

I had MU winning the three they won and losing to Indiana, so yes, my expectations have been met.... record-wise.
Even a loss to Kansas maintains that.

now, how they've gotten that expected record is certainly a subject for debate and some disappointment.
but it is early.
while frustrated to a degree, I'm nowhere close to throwing in the towel on what should certainly be the most accomplished season of the Wojo tenure.

My expectations were simple.  I thought for the first time in the Wojo era that I could go to a game, or watch a game on tv and feel, "sure, we're going to win this one".  In other words, expected us to win because of the roster, the talent, the pre season reports etc.

Now I feel like I hope we win this one - I'm not confident yet in any game we play that we will just out and out win it.   Til it's over. Lol. 

Go Marquette!

Quote from: Class71 on November 19, 2018, 08:32:48 AM
Hard to interpert the results of this poll.  There are four possibilities.

1) Had low expectations and met expectations.

2 Had high expectations and met expectations.

3) Had low expectations and exceeded those expectations.

4) Had high expectations and did not meet those expections.

For me I had high expectations so I fell under category 4. Would be interesting to see how many fell into category 2.

5) Had high expectations for the season as a whole, but knew it would take a while to fit all the new guys into the rotation so the beginning could be rough, and we met those expectations.

That's me.

We did about as expected against the cupcakes, two games where we didn't really play great but you were comfortable that we would win from start to finish and one that was uncomfortable for 3/4 of the game, but we did worse than expected against IU, in that we played poorly and were never really in the game.  So my answer was no.  I may answer differently after 6 games.  Tough to feel confident one way or the other after 4 games.

question could be answered two different ways:
1.Based on our record.
2.Based on our play.

Used #2=NO - too inconsistent and fold at IU.

Edit.

Didn't read the whole post before voting.

I would say that I still EXPECT this team to be as good as I EXPECTED them to be 3 weeks ago.  But I am very disapointed about the start to the season.  I projected an Indiana loss, so not so much the L that bugs me, its that I don't think the boys have played well at all in any of the 4 games. 

Still a lot of season left though. 

Before the season started, I had MU with 19 wins, mostly winning at home, losing all but a couple on the road.  Middle of the BE, 9+ seed. 

I think my expectations were at the low end of the spectrum of prognosticators.  Why low?  This thread. 

This thread has appeared every single damn (recent) year and MU constantly underwhelms, especially the first dozen games.  There's rarely a surprise to the upside.

I would love it if 2018-19 Wojo proved all that Arby's wrong and surprised us all.