MUScoop

MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: Marcus92 on November 11, 2018, 03:23:44 AM

Title: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: Marcus92 on November 11, 2018, 03:23:44 AM
KenPom.com ranks Indiana #24 in defensive efficiency. Their eFG% (4th), 3PT% defense (14th) and TO% (14th) are particularly strong. We'll need to keep the ball moving, look for opportunities to drive, find open shooters and protect the ball.

On offense, the Hoosiers do all their work in transition and inside. They're not a good outside shooting team (#195), but #9 in 2PT%. This is where MU's defense has been strongest so far. Sacar will probably be tasked with guarding preseason All-American Romeo Langford. Can Theo and Ed defend without fouling? This will be a big test.

Indiana is also just as deep as we are, if not more so. Eight players are averaging at least 15 mpg, 2 others at least 11 mpg.
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: Jockey on November 11, 2018, 05:01:32 AM
Meaningless stats.

They played two low level cupcakes.
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: burger on November 11, 2018, 10:00:37 AM
I hope we "throttle" those pompous F's......

Not just beat them.....Duke them.....aka Ken""ucky.......

Perfect opportunity.....
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: Warrior Code on November 11, 2018, 12:06:36 PM
Which helps us more at the end of the year: a win at IU or a neutral-court win over Kansas? I remember seeing that road victories are weighted more but I don't know the actual numbers behind it. Obviously, the final rankings will play a part and we can't know what they are at this point, but I wanted to get a gut reaction from scoop.
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: brewcity77 on November 11, 2018, 12:13:58 PM
Quote from: Warrior Code on November 11, 2018, 12:06:36 PM
Which helps us more at the end of the year: a win at IU or a neutral-court win over Kansas? I remember seeing that road victories are weighted more but I don't know the actual numbers behind it. Obviously, the final rankings will play a part and we can't know what they are at this point, but I wanted to get a gut reaction from scoop.

If we go 1-1 and I get to pick, I'll take the win over Kansas. Until proven otherwise, they are the perennial Big 12 champs and haven't been worse than a 2 seed in the past 9 years. Ultimately, we know that the win over Kansas would be a certain Q1 win over a conference champ and 1 or 2 seed. The IU win would be big, but they probably aren't better than a 4-seed unless they win the Big 10 and could very well be a NIT team.
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: Warrior Code on November 11, 2018, 01:20:27 PM
Thanks, brew. That's kind of what I was thinking too. Although I don't see IU as a possible NIT team this year, unless something goes terribly wrong over in Bloomington.
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: Nukem2 on November 11, 2018, 01:26:52 PM
Quote from: brewcity77 on November 11, 2018, 12:13:58 PM
If we go 1-1 and I get to pick, I'll take the win over Kansas. Until proven otherwise, they are the perennial Big 12 champs and haven't been worse than a 2 seed in the past 9 years. Ultimately, we know that the win over Kansas would be a certain Q1 win over a conference champ and 1 or 2 seed. The IU win would be big, but they probably aren't better than a 4-seed unless they win the Big 10 and could very well be a NIT team.
Unfortunately, we don't get to pick.  But let's go for 2-0. ;)
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: brewcity77 on November 11, 2018, 01:34:11 PM
Quote from: Nukem2 on November 11, 2018, 01:26:52 PM
Unfortunately, we don't get to pick.  But let's go for 2-0. ;)

Not to be an ass, but did you even read what I quoted and was responding to? Of course we'd prefer 2-0, that doesn't answer the question.
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: Nukem2 on November 11, 2018, 01:35:15 PM
Quote from: brewcity77 on November 11, 2018, 01:34:11 PM
Not to be an ass, but did you even read what I quoted and was responding to? Of course we'd prefer 2-0, that doesn't answer the question.
Was just having fun with a 2-0 alternative.  Don't be so touchy
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: Marcus92 on November 11, 2018, 01:49:50 PM
Quote from: Jockey on November 11, 2018, 05:01:32 AMMeaningless stats.

They played two low level cupcakes.

KenPom's defensive efficiency stats are adjusted for the level of competition. Metrics matter. Ask any college coach in the game today. No prediction is perfect, of course. But Indiana is getting votes in the AP poll for a reason. This is a quality team, one that could compete for a top 3 finish in the Big 10 and a 5 or 6 seed in the NCAA tournament.
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on November 11, 2018, 02:13:34 PM
Quote from: Marcus92 on November 11, 2018, 01:49:50 PM
KenPom's defensive efficiency stats are adjusted for the level of competition. Metrics matter. Ask any college coach in the game today. No prediction is perfect, of course. But Indiana is getting votes in the AP poll for a reason. This is a quality team, one that could compete for a top 3 finish in the Big 10 and a 5 or 6 seed in the NCAA tournament.

True to a degree, but the only stat you quoted that is adjusted for competition is defensive efficiency, which at this point in the season is still mostly pre-season projection baked in anyway. The other stats (eFG%, 3PT%, TO%) are raw & unadulterated, so completely biased by IU's early crappy competition (as are ours).
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: brewcity77 on November 11, 2018, 02:56:33 PM
Quote from: Nukem2 on November 11, 2018, 01:35:15 PM
Was just having fun with a 2-0 alternative.  Don't be so touchy

Not touchy, just confused why you would say something that was so obviously irrelevant to the question at hand.
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: GoldenEagle323 on November 11, 2018, 03:09:28 PM
Im not worried about anyone on IU but juwan morgan hasn't done much this season but i wouldnt be surprised if morrow was put on him considering they have played against each other
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: Marcus92 on November 11, 2018, 03:21:46 PM
Quote from: Ellenson Family Reunion on November 11, 2018, 02:13:34 PMTrue to a degree, but the only stat you quoted that is adjusted for competition is defensive efficiency, which at this point in the season is still mostly pre-season projection baked in anyway. The other stats (eFG%, 3PT%, TO%) are raw & unadulterated, so completely biased by IU's early crappy competition (as are ours).

Good point, I should have clarified that. This will clearly be the first game by either team against real competition. But it does look to me like strength (MU offense) versus strength (IU defense).
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on November 11, 2018, 04:56:42 PM
Quote from: Marcus92 on November 11, 2018, 01:49:50 PM
KenPom's defensive efficiency stats are adjusted for the level of competition. Metrics matter. Ask any college coach in the game today. No prediction is perfect, of course. But Indiana is getting votes in the AP poll for a reason. This is a quality team, one that could compete for a top 3 finish in the Big 10 and a 5 or 6 seed in the NCAA tournament.

I forget the exact number, but KenPom doesn't become accurate until 5 or 6 games in. IIRC, level of competition is decided by what KenPom guessed (educated guesses but still guesses) teams would be for the first few games. Once there is enough data he switches so it is all based on information from this season.

I'm not an expert stathead so I could be wrong, but my understanding is that KenPom rankings are pretty useless for the first few games of the season.
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: ChitownSpaceForRent on November 11, 2018, 05:03:02 PM
I would love nothing more than to beat an Archie Miller coached team into the ground...
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: Herman Cain on November 11, 2018, 05:19:20 PM
https://www.thedailyhoosier.com/indiana-basketball-injury-news-and-notable-numbers-from-montana-state/
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: Spaniel with a Short Tail on November 11, 2018, 05:26:07 PM
Quote from: Nukem2 on November 11, 2018, 01:35:15 PM
Was just having fun with a 2-0 alternative.  Don't be so touchy

(https://cdn1.lockerdome.com/uploads/6eb96cfe4d3bbc5498d51b850bc0fb4d71d6c6a7e91db4643cd66eefc9b60e96_large)
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: muwarrior69 on November 11, 2018, 05:33:49 PM
The team which has the most points after 40 minutes.
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: brewcity77 on November 11, 2018, 07:35:36 PM
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on November 11, 2018, 04:56:42 PMI'm not an expert stathead so I could be wrong, but my understanding is that KenPom rankings are pretty useless for the first few games of the season.

Full accuracy doesn't come until mid-January. Right now it's still heavily based on last year and projections rather than actual current data.
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: Nukem2 on November 11, 2018, 08:52:13 PM
Quote from: brewcity77 on November 11, 2018, 02:56:33 PM
Not touchy, just confused why you would say something that was so obviously irrelevant to the question at hand.
Guess you have no sense of fun.  Lighten up young guy.
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: brewcity77 on November 11, 2018, 08:59:40 PM
Quote from: Nukem2 on November 11, 2018, 08:52:13 PM
Guess you have no sense of fun.  Lighten up young guy.

My sense of fun is fine. Your post just wasn't funny.
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: Nukem2 on November 11, 2018, 09:05:35 PM
Quote from: brewcity77 on November 11, 2018, 08:59:40 PM
My sense of fun is fine. Your post just wasn't funny.
Whatever.  Just all about possibilities.  I would love to be 2-0.   :)
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on November 11, 2018, 10:05:18 PM
Took a look at some of the numbers for Indiana's first two games. It seems that Jerome Hunter is out indefinitely with a leg injury. He was their highest rated freshman other than Langford. They certainly didn't miss him in the first two but it does give us an easier task. We already knew Langford was a star, but they have two other true freshmen who played big minutes in the first two games. Robert Phinese and Demazi Anderson are both top 125 type players who have gotten starter level minutes in the first two games. Will be curious how they do against real competition instead of a sub 250 team and a sub 350 team. If they are relying on three true freshmen for major minutes, I feel a little more confident.
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: MU82 on November 12, 2018, 09:41:31 AM
Quote from: brewcity77 on November 11, 2018, 02:56:33 PM
Not touchy, just confused why you would say something that was so obviously irrelevant to the question at hand.

I know! A Scooper saying something irrelevant and/or making light of something!

The nerve!! And so outside the norm of behavior 'round these parts!!!
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: Bocephys on November 12, 2018, 10:43:08 AM
Quote from: MU82 on November 12, 2018, 09:41:31 AM
I know! A Scooper saying something irrelevant and/or making light of something!

The nerve!! And so outside the norm of behavior 'round these parts!!!

Followed by a completely disproportional reaction that assumed a personal slight which never existed! 

Honestly, Scoop should be commended for being in mid-season form so quickly.  All that hand wringing over paper tickets was like an overseas trip to help the team bond.
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: MU82 on November 12, 2018, 10:46:03 AM
Quote from: Bocephys on November 12, 2018, 10:43:08 AM
Scoop should be commended for being in mid-season form so quickly.

Won't really be in mid-season form until we lose a game, especially if the loss is to a team "we should have beaten."
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: DCHoopster on November 12, 2018, 11:08:33 AM
Quote from: MU82 on November 12, 2018, 10:46:03 AM
Won't really be in mid-season form until we lose a game, especially if the loss is to a team "we should have beaten."

MU is expected to lose on Wednesday, but they can go in there and have fun, and just maybe they can win.  This is a good test to see how Wojo uses Joey, Cain
and Bailey.  Key to the game is trying to keep Theo out of foul trouble.  Markus has to stay hot from the outside.
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: Windyplayer on November 12, 2018, 11:17:21 AM
Quote from: DCHoopster on November 12, 2018, 11:08:33 AM
MU is expected to lose on Wednesday, but they can go in there and have fun, and just maybe they can win.  This is a good test to see how Wojo uses Joey, Cain
and Bailey.  Key to the game is trying to keep Theo out of foul trouble.  Markus has to stay hot from the outside.
They can get ice cream after, win or lose!
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: Windyplayer on November 12, 2018, 11:17:58 AM
REMOVED
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: MU82 on November 12, 2018, 01:20:06 PM
Quote from: DCHoopster on November 12, 2018, 11:08:33 AM
MU is expected to lose on Wednesday, but they can go in there and have fun, and just maybe they can win.  This is a good test to see how Wojo uses Joey, Cain
and Bailey.  Key to the game is trying to keep Theo out of foul trouble.  Markus has to stay hot from the outside.

Gotta hit 3s, protect the ball, and defend decently without committing too many fouls.

Am guessing the recipe for success will be similar in most games, but especially so in the games against good teams.

Throw in that our lads must keep their poise in their first road test as a ranked team.
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: ChitownSpaceForRent on November 12, 2018, 01:29:59 PM
Quote from: MU82 on November 12, 2018, 10:46:03 AM
Won't really be in mid-season form until we lose a game, especially if the loss is to a team "we should have beaten."

Gonna need a refresher on the Marquette/scoop checklist.
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: Herman Cain on November 12, 2018, 01:35:40 PM
Markus and Sam both need to be hitting their threes. We need that to take the Assembly Hall crowd out of the game.

We have plenty of fouls to work with against Juwan Morgan, if possible it would be great to work the ball in to our big men and get Morgan in foul trouble.

Sacar will have to work hard guarding Langford.
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: fjm on November 12, 2018, 01:57:37 PM
Agree Herman. If we can get Ed or Theo to atleast get an early 2 fouls on Morgan that would be great. Dump it in to Theo and let him try a hook shot or two or initiate contact to get some fouls going against Indiana.
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: ChitownSpaceForRent on November 12, 2018, 02:04:03 PM
Quote from: fjm on November 12, 2018, 01:57:37 PM
Agree Herman. If we can get Ed or Theo to atleast get an early 2 fouls on Morgan that would be great. Dump it in to Theo and let him try a hook shot or two or initiate contact to get some fouls going against Indiana.

That seems to have been Wojo's MO since he's been here. I remember the first play almost always going to Matt last year, Luke two years ago, and Theo in the last game.

Scripted plays but it works. Or maybe I'm just imagining things.
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: Stretchdeltsig on November 12, 2018, 02:39:10 PM
Quote from: DCHoopster on November 12, 2018, 11:08:33 AM
MU is expected to lose on Wednesday, but they can go in there and have fun, and just maybe they can win.  This is a good test to see how Wojo uses Joey, Cain
and Bailey.  Key to the game is trying to keep Theo out of foul trouble.  Markus has to stay hot from the outside.
Who said "Marquette is expected to lose?"  We expect them to win by 7-10 points.  Go Marquette!
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: T-Bone on November 12, 2018, 02:48:22 PM
Mid-Season Meltdown Checklist:
- Hiroshima mentions
- Ron Paul Blimp "It's Happening"
- Chico's ban.
- A scooper goes missing, is found on Dodds
- Several self-imposed bans.
- The mods keep muttering about Arby's while locking threads (they're in mid-season form)
- How you feel in GIF threads - then a political fight about the G/J in pronunciation.
- A thread or two lamenting Singleton
- 5 threads about what the Greek Freak's brother could have done. 
- NM thread grows exponentially.
- Hoopaloop rises from the ashes.
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: Marcus92 on November 12, 2018, 02:55:10 PM
- Return of the pointless but seemingly irresistible argument about which head coach came to Marquette with a more empty cupboard
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on November 12, 2018, 04:34:56 PM
Quote from: T-Bone on November 12, 2018, 02:48:22 PM
Mid-Season Meltdown Checklist:
- Hiroshima mentions
- Ron Paul Blimp "It's Happening"
- Chico's ban.
- A scooper goes missing, is found on Dodds
- Several self-imposed bans.
- The mods keep muttering about Arby's while locking threads (they're in mid-season form)
- How you feel in GIF threads - then a political fight about the G/J in pronunciation.
- A thread or two lamenting Singleton
- 5 threads about what the Greek Freak's brother could have done. 
- NM thread grows exponentially.
- Hoopaloop rises from the ashes.

Well done
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: brewcity77 on November 12, 2018, 04:58:42 PM
IU wants to force us into turnovers and get points in transition. Their average possession length of 14.3 is because they are forcing turnovers and getting easy points. I think the key is to slow it down on offense. We are the better shooting team and the more efficient team. I could definitely see some zone in this game. Slow it down and make every possession that much more valuable. Hopefully that will help us limit turnovers and easy chances for them, while also increasing the impact of 3-point shots on the game. This will be a great game to try some small-ball shooting lineups.

I think this one will come down to possessions. If we hold it under 70 possessions, I think we win. 75 or more and Indiana has the advantage. One of those rare times when I want a Wojo offense to play slow.
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: GoldenEagle323 on November 12, 2018, 05:03:02 PM
Besides Sacar who could we see matched up with langford? i hope we shut him down
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: MU82 on November 12, 2018, 05:03:58 PM
Quote from: T-Bone on November 12, 2018, 02:48:22 PM
- 5 threads about what the Greek Freak's brother could have done. 

If only we didn't have Kostas.
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: brewcity77 on November 12, 2018, 05:07:47 PM
Quote from: GoldenEagle323 on November 12, 2018, 05:03:02 PM
Besides Sacar who could we see matched up with langford? i hope we shut him down

1. Sacar
2. Chartouny
3. Cain or Bailey, hoping to use length to stifle him
4. Zone
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: Marcus92 on November 12, 2018, 05:08:31 PM
Wouldn't be surprised to see Jamal or Brendan guarding Langford for at least some of the game.
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: GoldenEagle323 on November 12, 2018, 05:09:14 PM
Quote from: brewcity77 on November 12, 2018, 05:07:47 PM
1. Sacar
2. Chartouny
3. Cain or Bailey, hoping to use length to stifle him
4. Zone
I was think chartouny but so far he looks a little slow
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on November 12, 2018, 05:13:27 PM
Quote from: GoldenEagle323 on November 12, 2018, 05:03:02 PM
Besides Sacar who could we see matched up with langford? i hope we shut him down

Guessing Sam/Jamal/Brendan
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on November 12, 2018, 05:32:50 PM
Quote from: GoldenEagle323 on November 12, 2018, 05:03:02 PM
Besides Sacar who could we see matched up with langford? i hope we shut him down

Nice thing about the roster this year. We have options.

I would guess Sacar is the first choice, but I think Bailey, Cain, and Chartouny could all match up with him pretty well. I think Sam and Morrow would be a touch too slow but I think they could be effective.

Zone could be an option tomorrow. I wrote this about Indiana for Paint Touches over the summer:

QuoteThe other concern is 3P shooting. Last year, the Hooisers ranked second to last in the conference for both 3PM and 3P%, beating out only Rutgers in both categories. They also lose their only consistent 3P threat in Johnson in addition to Newkirk who was third on the team in 3PM. Green can make threes but wasn't particularly accurate at 33.7%. McRoberts was accurate but only attempted 33 on the season. Morgan was neither accurate (30.5%) nor prolific (16 3PM). There will need to be significant improvement from these three or the newcomers. If there isn't, Juwan Morgan could see constant doubles in the post and Langford will be driving into a crowded lane.

So far Indiana is 13/42 (31%) from three against a sub 250 type team and a sub 350 type team (yes, I'm aware there only 353 teams, Chicago State is that bad). True freshman Rob Phinisee is the only player with more than 2 3PM, going 3/5. Walk on Zach McRoberts is 2/2. True freshman Damezi Anderson is 2/7. The other two members of their starting backcourt Langford and Devonte Green are a combined 2/15.

Given all that....and the fact that we are suddenly blessed with a roster full of length, I would not be shocked to see us bust out a zone for a significant part of the game. Imagine for a moment the beauty of a 2-3 zone with Chartouny and Sacar on top, Cain and Bailey on the wings, and John anchoring the center waiting to demolish anyone who dares approach. Nevermind that this particular lineup would be a mess on offense....but think of how devastating that zone could be!

Obviously you would have to fit some offensive minded guys like Howard and Sam in there somewhere, but like I said, we have options.
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: wadesworld on November 12, 2018, 07:44:14 PM
If we do go zone I'm hoping we can be comfortable with where we stand up to halftime and save it so they don't have a halftime to make adjustments for it. Save it for the second half.
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: real chili 83 on November 12, 2018, 08:12:12 PM
Quote from: T-Bone on November 12, 2018, 02:48:22 PM
Mid-Season Meltdown Checklist:
- Hiroshima mentions
- Ron Paul Blimp "It's Happening"
- Chico's ban.
- A scooper goes missing, is found on Dodds
- Several self-imposed bans.
- The mods keep muttering about Arby's while locking threads (they're in mid-season form)
- How you feel in GIF threads - then a political fight about the G/J in pronunciation.
- A thread or two lamenting Singleton
- 5 threads about what the Greek Freak's brother could have done. 
- NM thread grows exponentially.
- Hoopaloop rises from the ashes.

Throw in some smoked meats and you've got this nailed.
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: real chili 83 on November 12, 2018, 08:17:08 PM
Tomorrow might be a good day for folks to stock up on Sonoran Salsa. Get enough for IU and Kansas.

That sh1t is powerful stuff. Warrior salsa.  Dunks, can you handle the demand???
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: DUNKS45 on November 12, 2018, 08:25:28 PM
Quote from: real chili 83 on November 12, 2018, 08:17:08 PM
Tomorrow might be a good day for folks to stock up on Sonoran Salsa. Get enough for IU and Kansas.

That sh1t is powerful stuff. Warrior salsa.  Dunks, can you handle the demand???
I'm back in the lab tomorrow making a new batch. GO WARRIORS
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: wadesworld on November 12, 2018, 08:40:29 PM
Quote from: real chili 83 on November 12, 2018, 08:12:12 PM
Throw in some smoked meats and you've got this nailed.

And fishing.

Quote from: DUNKS45 on November 12, 2018, 08:25:28 PM
I'm back in the lab tomorrow making a new batch. GO WARRIORS

If it gets me speaking Spanish tomorrow night I'm all in ai'na?
Title: Re: Keys to watch for against IU
Post by: real chili 83 on November 12, 2018, 08:45:35 PM
Quote from: wadesworld on November 12, 2018, 08:40:29 PM
And fishing.

If it gets me speaking Spanish tomorrow night I'm all in ai'na?

Si
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