Louisville Preview
While Louisville has its Kentucky like Marquette has its Wisconsin, something special happens every time the Cards and the Warriors meet up.
Take this audio from a decade ago, January 3, 1998.
Wardle hits to win the game, 71-70.
Since 2000, MU and UL have matched up 16 times. The record? A fitting 8-8. Nearly half of those games, the visiting team has won on hostile ground. Overtimes, triple overtimes. One, two, three point games, won on the last bucket, time and time again. Strap in.
Want to Win the Big EAST? How about starting by winning some games on the road? Maybe against a key rival? How about against a team that we love to hate?
Here are the Top Five Numbers to Know about Louisville. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.
66% - Pomeroy's computer simulation gives us a 66% Chance of winning this game.
* Ah, if only games were played on computer, instead of on the court
* Considering that home teams have managed to hold serve consistently this year, treat this with some skepticism
11 - Louisville's National Rating at Adjusted Defensive Efficiency
* Efficiency is ((Points / Possessions)*100)
* Their Adj Def Efficiency (85.7) is 11 out of 341 teams, whereas their Offensive Efficiency is only ranked 64
* Louisville is clearly winning games on the defensive end, having only allowed four teams to crack 100 (none in the last seven games)
* On the other hand, Marquette has only been below 100 on offensive efficiency once (against SHU)
95% - Pace is 95% correlated to Louisville's Offensive Efficiency
* In other words, Louisville does better on offense the more that they push the pace
* However, Louisville only averages 66.7 possessions / game
* That is one of the slowest tempos in Division 1 (211 out of 341)
* Expecting the run-and-gun pressing team from Louisville? Maybe, but it's not helping them force a faster tempo.
* In fact, Louisville is average (ranking of 162) at forcing turnovers from their opponents
8 - Louisville's ranking at 2-point FG%
* Louisville is only allowing opponents to achieve 40.3% on two-point field goals
* Marquette is making 53% of our 2-point field goals, so something has to give
2 - Number of times that Louisville has allowed an opponent to get over 35% on Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%)
* OR% is the ratio of total potential offensive rebounds. Team OR / (Team OR + Opponent DR). Each defensive rebound by the opponent is a potential offensive rebound.
* Louisville is holding opponents to an average OR% of 30%
* Marquette is averaging 39.4% on offensive rebounds, but we've been below 33% against our last three opponents
* Will Marquette be able to recapture the Offensive Rebounding prowess?
Summary
Although the reputation of Pitino's teams is that of the running, pressing teams that drop 100 points, this year's Louisville team is largely winning on interior defense. I actually think that a quicker pace helps tip towards Marquette's favor, but only if that means we're able to create offensive rebounds and quality shots in the paint.
Expect another great game on Thursday night. Overtime, Triple Overtime, maybe more.
Time/TV: 6pm CST, ESPN2
* MU Game Notes
* UL Game Notes
* The Cardinal Fan Blog
..written by Henry & Hilltopper.
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2008/01/louisville-preview.html