We're about to get flooded with the "too early" predictions and I saw the first this morning. Should provide us some discussion fodder after tonight. I'll continue to add and update the opening post.
Sporting News (http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/news/college-basketball-top-25-rankings-2018-2019-kentucky-duke-kansas-villanova-nba-draft/699qbsghlgh01sfheywp060ox?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter) (No Marquette mention)
Gary Parrish Top-25 & 1 (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/2018-19-college-basketball-rankings-way-too-early-projection-has-kansas-and-duke-at-the-top/amp/?__twitter_impression=true) (No Marquette mention)
Yahoo! Sports (https://sports.yahoo.com/way-early-top-25-2018-19-college-basketball-season-033644755.html) (#22 Marquette)
The Athletic (https://theathletic.com/296549/2018/04/02/way-too-early-2018-19-preseason-top-25/) (Marquette "Others Receiving Consideration")
Jon Rothstein (https://frshoopz.com/cbb/rothstein-way-too-early-cbb-top-25-for-2018-19/) (No Marquette Mention)
Badgers at 15 is so shameful it hurts, but then again this is Sporting News, not a real media outlet.
Edit: they cite the Badgers "addition of talent" with the #59 overall recruiting class coming in. You cannot make this crap up.
When questioned on social media, DeCourcy defended the "talent coming in" as including their two guys (King & Trice) returning from injury. Never mind the Badgers were 4-6 with those guys.
Quote from: Tha Hound on April 02, 2018, 08:44:12 AM
Badgers at 15 is so shameful it hurts, but then again this is Sporting News, not a real media outlet.
Edit: they cite the Badgers "addition of talent" with the #59 overall recruiting class coming in. You cannot make this crap up.
They should fit the 12 year old who wrote this.
What? It was a grown ass man? Yeesh
I can see why Grimes went to Kansas. #1 ranked team coming off of a Final Four. Compared to Marquette, it's a no brainer.
TBH, most of these way too early predictions will have one pick that seems totally nuts. Either they are right and they link back to it next season to show what a genius they are or they are wrong and no one remembers this dumb article anyway
Quote from: brewcity77 on April 02, 2018, 08:52:32 AM
When questioned on social media, DeCourcy defended the "talent coming in" as including their two guys (King & Trice) returning from injury. Never mind the Badgers were 4-6 with those guys.
Isn't Ryan Fagan the one who wrote the article?
With those guys they lost to Xavier despite being tied with about 2 minutes to go, lost to UCLA in final seconds. 15th is way too high, but Wisconsin will be a NCAA team next year. I'd say 26th to 30th range.
I had no idea The Sporting News was still a thing
Quote from: WarriorDad on April 02, 2018, 09:23:34 AM
Isn't Ryan cute onean the one who wrote the article?
With those guys they lost to Xavier despite being tied with about 2 minutes to go, lost to UCLA in final seconds. 15th is way too high, but Wisconsin will be a NCAA team next year. I'd say 26th to 30th range.
That's very generous, I think they could be an NCAA tournament team but they were about 35 spots out of the tournament this year and I'm not sure that the #59 recruiting class plus Trice and King will enough to make up those 35 spots plus another 15 or so to get to the top 30.
And they lost by 10 to X, and then lost to two bubble teams in UCLA and Baylor. Not bad losses for sure, but I wouldn't use losing to them as evidence that Wisconsin was really good before the injuries.
Total joke to consider them #15. His rationale for such a ranking is so weak. He cites a #59 recruiting class!! One of the their three guys in the class will start his Badger career as a preferred walk-on. Writer noting their starting with a clean slate is throwaway nonsense.
Happ will return I'd bet, even with that, this team is a mile from a top 25 ranking. Other than Davison and Happ's low post game (he still sucks at FT) there is little to like about their team.
A know nothing writing a college basketball column based on recent reputation of programs. But we all know most of these pre rankings are a waste of time. I can't recall a single one for 2017-18 that didn't have Bucky as a top 25, with the rationale, well there always there at the end. Well, this year was different, they stunk. Their improvement was modest at the end of the year. Playing MI St close twice, one home, one neutral, is hardly anything to get worked up over based on MI St. very short stay in the NCAA's.
We get a solid grad transfer PG, we are surely top 20. Not that any in media will figure that out until well into next season.
Quote from: HutchwasClutch on April 02, 2018, 09:40:55 AM
Total joke to consider them #15. His rationale for such a ranking is so weak. He cites a #59 recruiting class!! One of the their three guys in the class will start his Badger career as a preferred walk-on. Writer noting their starting with a clean slate is throwaway nonsense.
Happ will return I'd bet, even with that, this team is a mile from a top 25 ranking. Other than Davison and Happ's low post game (he still sucks at FT) there is little to like about their team.
A know nothing writing a college basketball column based on recent reputation of programs. But we all know most of these pre rankings are a waste of time. I can't recall a single one for 2017-18 that didn't have Bucky as a top 25, with the rationale, well there always there at the end. Well, this year was different, they stunk. Their improvement was modest at the end of the year. Playing MI St close twice, one home, one neutral, is hardly anything to get worked up over based on MI St. very short stay in the NCAA's.
They have a potential All-American back, plus 7 other players back, lose nobody. With King and Trice back, they will be better. I can see the rating at this time.
Most teams lose players so there is some question marks, here, none. Now can they improve this summer, I think so. Freshman will make no difference. Can MU
be better, maybe, but I see lots more question marks right now. Maybe in a month, not as many. It is early.
Quote from: DCHoopster on April 02, 2018, 09:47:43 AM
They have a potential All-American back, plus 7 other players back, lose nobody. With King and Trice back, they will be better. I can see the rating at this time.
Most teams lose players so there is some question marks, here, none. Now can they improve this summer, I think so. Freshman will make no difference. Can MU
be better, maybe, but I see lots more question marks right now. Maybe in a month, not as many. It is early.
I truly believe Happ has hit his ceiling as a player. The other guys are just that, guys. What's to be so excited about Trice and King? They were hardly setting anyone on fire before they were injured. Trice was a sub 40% shooter, averaging less than 10 ppg, with 2 assists and 2 rebound per game.
King was averaging 5 a game. Hardly Markus Howard like start to his career.
I'm not saying those two won't help, and maybe they will be good in the end. My bottom line is it takes a tremendous homer mentality and leap of faith to slot them #15, would require many so-so and disappointing players becoming really strong players over the course of one summer. That can happen, not very often. And they don't have a HOF coach leading the development anymore.
F%cky #15.
Thanks for posting, brew. I needed a morning chuckle.
It will be fun to beat them by 1,000 points again.
Should we change the title to 18-19 Badger Predictions - since it appears that's all anyone wants to talk about?
At the end of the year the Badgers were playing really well. 15 is probably too high, but they will be good next year assuming Happ returns.
Quote from: HutchwasClutch on April 02, 2018, 09:55:55 AM
I truly believe Happ has hit his ceiling as a player. The other guys are just that, guys. What's to be so excited about Trice and King? They were hardly setting anyone on fire before they were injured. Trice was a sub 40% shooter, averaging less than 10 ppg, with 2 assists and 2 rebound per game.
King was averaging 5 a game. Hardly Markus Howard like start to his career.
I'm not saying those two won't help, and maybe they will be good in the end. My bottom line is it takes a tremendous homer mentality and leap of faith to slot them #15, would require many so-so and disappointing players becoming really strong players over the course of one summer. That can happen, not very often. And they don't have a HOF coach leading the development anymore.
They subbed last year Schlundt and Moesch, there is a difference having Trice and King. Big difference. Add the 15 points you stated above, that will make a big difference compared to those 2 stiffs. But in defense to them, they were both walk-ons.
next year.
Articles like this are really just meant to stir the pot. I don't know anything about their incoming class, but Oregon certainly did not strike me as a top 10 team.
Quote from: bilsu on April 02, 2018, 10:01:07 AM
At the end of the year the Badgers were playing really well. 15 is probably too high, but they will be good next year assuming Happ returns.
Other than beating Purdue, based on what? Playing MI St close and losing twice on home and neutral courts? MI St flamed out in both tournaments. Or beating Maryland who made no postseason, in a game decided in the final minute?
Quote from: Its DJOver on April 02, 2018, 10:03:41 AM
Articles like this are really just meant to stir the pot. I don't know anything about their incoming class, but Oregon certainly did not strike me as a top 10 team.
If you did know anything about their incoming class, you would know why they are ranked so high.
https://247sports.com/college/oregon/Season/2018-Basketball/Commits
Currently the #2 class in the country
15 is too high for UW, but people are kidding themselves if they don't think the Badgers will be back in the Dance next season and flirting with the top 25 at points during the season. They literally return everyone from this season- how many teams in college basketball can say that? The incoming class is nothing special, but adding Trice and King back to a young team that showed a lot of improvement last season will be a big help.
Plus it sounds like they may still go after a grad transfer as well. 15 is too high though, and not sure I would bet on UW finishing next season ahead of MU.
I loved the Sporting News early prediction following our E8 showing. If memory serves me they had MU ranked #5 going into the following season. Unfortunately it failed to materialize.
Quote from: TAMU Chardonnay on April 02, 2018, 10:12:35 AM
If you did know anything about their incoming class, you would know why they are ranked so high.
https://247sports.com/college/oregon/Season/2018-Basketball/Commits
Currently the #2 class in the country
Great class, but it doesn't always lead to a high ranking. They had a top 15 class last year and didn't make the tourney. Plenty of examples of programs having great classes that don't end up ranked very high, but I do understand why they would appear on the list, just think top 10 is a little high.
Would be nice to see Marquette showing up on some lists. Been way too long.
Quote from: Goose on April 02, 2018, 10:18:28 AM
I loved the Sporting News early prediction following our E8 showing. If memory serves me they had MU ranked #5 going into the following season. Unfortunately it failed to materialize.
Yep yep.
These kinds of articles are what we used to call "conversation starters." And it obviously worked!
Quote from: TAMU Chardonnay on April 02, 2018, 10:12:35 AM
If you did know anything about their incoming class, you would know why they are ranked so high.
https://247sports.com/college/oregon/Season/2018-Basketball/Commits
Currently the #2 class in the country
I was aware and think they're still way, way too high. I look at this list at teams like Oregon and LSU that are based largely off unproven recruits and think back to 2016 LSU with Ben Simmons. I'd put more stock in teams with proven players, especially at programs that don't have Duke or Kentucky sizes like success at integrating star freshmen.
I'm also surprised K State isn't in here. They return almost everyone from an E8 team that was also top-4 in the best league in the country.
Quote from: TAMU Chardonnay on April 02, 2018, 10:12:35 AM
If you did know anything about their incoming class, you would know why they are ranked so high.
https://247sports.com/college/oregon/Season/2018-Basketball/Commits
Currently the #2 class in the country
How do recruiting class rankings translate into immediate on-court success? For discussion's sake:
2017 recruiting class rankings of the Final Four teams:
Kansas #9
Villanova #28
Michigan #43
Loyola #103
The other Elite 8 teams:
Duke #1
Florida State #12
Texas Tech #39
Kansas State #92
Sweet 16:
Kentucky #2
Texas A&M #29
Purdue #34
Syracuse #38
Clemson #46
West Virginia #66
Nevada #101
Gonzaga #120
In the meantime, six of the top 20 classes didn't make the tournament, and seven others didn't get out of the first round.
Quote from: Daniel on April 02, 2018, 10:24:18 AM
Would be nice to see Marquette showing up on some lists. Been way too long.
Agree. And they should be on next year's lists. Rowsey is only loss of consequence, and on the defensive end, it will be nothing but a gain without him. We're deep and talented, and will have 5 upperclassmen, plus 3 sophomores who played a lot, so experience is no longer an issue. J. Hauser is a big time talent who will be one of the go to guys next year.
True PG to run the show is only piece missing and that may yet be solved. If it is, I feel strongly we're a top 20 team when all accounts are settled next year.
Quote from: Pakuni on April 02, 2018, 10:30:04 AM
In the meantime, six of the top 20 classes didn't make the tournament, and seven others didn't get out of the first round.
And one of those was Oregon. Good recruiting can and should put you on these way too early lists, but top 10 after a NIT season is a stretch.
Easy folks, was just explaining why Oregon was ranked so high. These lists always put top recruiting classes at the top. I don't think they are top 10 either
Quote from: Daniel on April 02, 2018, 10:24:18 AM
Would be nice to see Marquette showing up on some lists. Been way too long.
Rarely do writers look that close at teams that are ranked around 50 or so. Morrow is probably not on anybodies radar or for that matter Joey who played one game
last year and Bailey being gone for 2 years. If you add Bailey, Morrow and Joey as a recruiting class it would be ranked pretty high. Add a transfer and it would be
Top 10. Then again, 2 of the players have question marks.
Quote from: WarriorDad on April 02, 2018, 09:23:34 AM
Isn't Ryan cute onean the one who wrote the article?
With those guys they lost to Xavier despite being tied with about 2 minutes to go, lost to UCLA in final seconds. 15th is way too high, but Wisconsin will be a NCAA team next year. I'd say 26th to 30th range.
Chicos with his daily dose of Badgers love.
Just for fun, here's the Sporting News' 2017-18 preseason top 25.
Notable inclusions:
#6 Louisville
#10 Minnesota
#12 UCLA
#15 USC
#24 Northwestern
http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/news/college-basketball-rankings-recruiting-2017-2018-duke-kentucky-uk-arizona-louisville-michigan-ucla/9km64x4imz0z1icg9m122z6f4
While I find it laffable that wisco is 15, I find it remarkable that vpi is 19. Quite a powerful building program by Buzz at a previous nonentity. Same amount of time Wojo has had. Hmmm
Quote from: augoman on April 02, 2018, 10:57:28 AM
While I find it laffable that wisco is 15, I find it remarkable that vpi is 19. Quite a powerful building program by Buzz at a previous nonentity. Same amount of time Wojo has had. Hmmm
VPI was 22nd in last year's preseason rankings. Not likely to be in the top 30 in the final poll.
Clearly an underachieving performance.
Quote from: augoman on April 02, 2018, 10:57:28 AM
While I find it laffable that wisco is 15, I find it remarkable that vpi is 19. Quite a powerful building program by Buzz at a previous nonentity. Same amount of time Wojo has had. Hmmm
Yes I think we should have this debate (again) in yet another thread. I am sure it will be productive, with new arguments unleashed and many minds changed.
Quote from: rocky_warrior on April 02, 2018, 09:58:54 AM
Should we change the title to 18-19 Badger Predictions - since it appears that's all anyone wants to talk about?
Hard to talk about MU prediction in this context since our Warriors didn't get a mention.
Quote from: Pakuni on April 02, 2018, 10:54:49 AM
Just for fun, here's the Sporting News' 2017-18 preseason top 25.
Notable inclusions:
#6 Louisville
#10 Minnesota
#12 UCLA
#15 USC
#24 Northwestern
http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/news/college-basketball-rankings-recruiting-2017-2018-duke-kentucky-uk-arizona-louisville-michigan-ucla/9km64x4imz0z1icg9m122z6f4
To be fair, if not most services had rankings similar to these for these schools. There are always teams that over and underachieve.
Quote from: TAMU Chardonnay on April 02, 2018, 11:08:13 AM
To be fair, if not most services had rankings similar to these for these schools. There are always teams that over and underachieve.
Right ... the point being, nobody should get worked up about this.
The same would be true if Marquette were ranked in the top 10.
Quote from: TAMU Chardonnay on April 02, 2018, 11:08:13 AM
To be fair, if not most services had rankings similar to these for these schools. There are always teams that over and underachieve.
Well, don't know where Sporting News has us slotted (26th, 36th, 46th?) but sooner or later meeting low expectations won't get it.
Lenny
I do not think these predictions hold much water, but it BE does not have a lot of exposure on the list. Impossible to guess where MU would fall, but I am guessing they do not have have us third best team going into next year. Could be wrong on that, but my guess is they have have us at 4-6 best team in BE.
Quote from: Lennys Tap on April 02, 2018, 11:21:17 AM
Well, don't know where Sporting News has us slotted (26th, 36th, 46th?) but sooner or later meeting low expectations won't get it.
I wasn't talking about Marquette at all in my post but ok.
Honestly I don't think Sporting News has us ranked anywhere at this point. I seriously doubt the writer spent that much time researching this article.
Look at it this way, the Badger fans are going to treat this as gospel and when they fail to make the tournament again next year(my prediction) Bucky fans will burn and it will be awesome
(https://static3.fjcdn.com/comments/Blank+_565b355902cfd9cd28a644144019c6bf.jpg)
Quote from: TAMU Chardonnay on April 02, 2018, 11:08:13 AM
To be fair, if not most services had rankings similar to these for these schools. There are always teams that over and underachieve.
Exactly why these rankings are a load of dung.
Quote from: HutchwasClutch on April 02, 2018, 12:04:07 PM
Exactly why these rankings are a load of dung.
I wouldn't call them a load of dung, some of them (not this one IMHO) are based on good research and statistical analysis. We pointed out the 5 sporting news were really wrong on but the other 20 weren't that far off. But yes, basketball isn't played on paper. Just because some article says a team will be good or bad does not make it so. Especially when transfer season has barely started
Quote from: TAMU Chardonnay on April 02, 2018, 12:09:51 PM
I wouldn't call them a load of dung, some of them (not this one IMHO) are based on good research and statistical analysis. We pointed out the 5 sporting news were really wrong on but the other 20 weren't that far off. But yes, basketball isn't played on paper. Just because some article says a team will be good or bad does not make it so. Especially when transfer season has barely started
I agree and I'll walk back my previous remark some...some of these are clearly written by clowns like this Sporting News hack. The way it's written appears he's done almost zero actual research and analysis of the college basketball landscape. Just grab school that have been good recently. For crying out loud, he has Duke #2 even though no starter is projected to return. As Kentucky has demonstrated just bringing in 4 or 5 guys that are projected one and dones isn't enough to be at that level.
Quote from: HutchwasClutch on April 02, 2018, 12:15:24 PM
I agree and I'll walk back my previous remark some...some of these are clearly written by clowns like this Sporting News hack. The way it's written appears he's done almost zero actual research and analysis of the college basketball landscape. Just grab school that have been good recently. For crying out loud, he has Duke #2 even though no starter is projected to return. As Kentucky has demonstrated just bringing in 4 or 5 guys that are projected one and dones isn't enough to be at that level.
Duke is bringing in 4 Top 10 kids, and the top 3 for next year. They will be fine. Can they co-exist together, that is what Coach K does best with the USA teams so he
understands how to do it.
Quote from: DCHoopster on April 02, 2018, 12:20:31 PM
Duke is bringing in 4 Top 10 kids, and the top 3 for next year. They will be fine. Can they co-exist together, that is what Coach K does best with the USA teams so he
understands how to do it.
I never said they won't be fine next year. But to place them at #2 preseason is off base. Again, see Kentucky this year.
I am think readers are mistaken. This is the not too early FBI Top 25 Most Wanted list.
Quote from: Lazar's Headband on April 02, 2018, 08:57:01 AM
I can see why Grimes went to Kansas. #1 ranked team coming off of a Final Four. Compared to Marquette, it's a no brainer.
I believe the pitch was that he would be "the guy" at MU and could make his mark - like Wade. At Kansas he's just another in a long line of 5* recruits.
Quote from: Seashells on April 02, 2018, 12:34:05 PM
I believe the pitch was that he would be "the guy" at MU and could make his mark - like Wade. At Kansas he's just another in a long line of 5* recruits.
However, there is a reason that players make such a big jump in the NBA. It is because when you are surrounded by talent you tend to benefit from this.
Quote from: TAMU Chardonnay on April 02, 2018, 09:31:27 AM
That's very generous, I think they could be an NCAA tournament team but they were about 35 spots out of the tournament this year and I'm not sure that the #59 recruiting class plus Trice and King will enough to make up those 35 spots plus another 15 or so to get to the top 30.
And they lost by 10 to X, and then lost to two bubble teams in UCLA and Baylor. Not bad losses for sure, but I wouldn't use losing to them as evidence that Wisconsin was really good before the injuries.
They lost to Xavier by ten, but the game was tied 66-66 with 2:11 left. Still a one possession game with until the 1:07 mark. XU basically made free throws at the end to build the lead. I would be surprised to not see them back in the NCAAs this upcoming season, which is a good thing if they barely get in. Keep Gard around as long as we can for MU's sake.
Quote from: TAMU Chardonnay on April 02, 2018, 09:31:27 AM
That's very generous, I think they could be an NCAA tournament team but they were about 35 spots out of the tournament this year and I'm not sure that the #59 recruiting class plus Trice and King will enough to make up those 35 spots plus another 15 or so to get to the top 30.
And they lost by 10 to X, and then lost to two bubble teams in UCLA and Baylor. Not bad losses for sure, but I wouldn't use losing to them as evidence that Wisconsin was really good before the injuries.
So, Trice and King will be so good that they will take most of Davidson's and Pritzl's minutes to soar the Badgers to 15th!
Take their two best trey shooters out of the line-up...that's sure to take the pressure off Happ.
The Athletic has Marquette as the first team listed of "others receiving consideration" outside of the top 25.
Westgate in Vegas released opening odds for 18-19 national champ. MU 200-1.
https://twitter.com/Johnny_Detroit/status/980889076080537600
Quote from: Skitch on April 02, 2018, 09:29:39 PM
Westgate in Vegas released opening odds for 18-19 national champ. MU 200-1.
https://twitter.com/Johnny_Detroit/status/980889076080537600
No love for Kansas State there. Also 200/1. They're not losing much.
Quote from: WarriorDad on April 02, 2018, 07:13:28 PM
They lost to Xavier by ten, but the game was tied 66-66 with 2:11 left. Still a one possession game with until the 1:07 mark. XU basically made free throws at the end to build the lead. I would be surprised to not see them back in the NCAAs this upcoming season, which is a good thing if they barely get in. Keep Gard around as long as we can for MU's sake.
Well, they lost to Marquette by 1,000.
Wait ... I think Markus, Sam and Rowsey just hit another 3 each.
But yeah, chicos, F%cky was really close to special this past season.
Quote from: Skitch on April 02, 2018, 09:29:39 PM
Westgate in Vegas released opening odds for 18-19 national champ. MU 200-1.
https://twitter.com/Johnny_Detroit/status/980889076080537600
So at this point Vegas doesn't consider us a tourney team? 65th on list and obviously doesn't factor in small schools.
Is that a fair interpretation? Or does a lot of this have to do with them handicapping for antipated bets?
I'll leave this here.
https://sports.yahoo.com/way-early-top-25-2018-19-college-basketball-season-033644755.html
Here's Gary Parrish's first Top 25 and 1 for the 18-19 season:
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/2018-19-college-basketball-rankings-way-too-early-projection-has-kansas-and-duke-at-the-top/amp/?__twitter_impression=true (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/2018-19-college-basketball-rankings-way-too-early-projection-has-kansas-and-duke-at-the-top/amp/?__twitter_impression=true)
Quote from: source? on April 03, 2018, 12:48:48 AM
I'll leave this here.
https://sports.yahoo.com/way-early-top-25-2018-19-college-basketball-season-033644755.html
"Froling key loss" :o
Quote from: TAMU Chardonnay on April 02, 2018, 09:04:13 AM
TBH, most of these way too early predictions will have one pick that seems totally nuts. Either they are right and they link back to it next season to show what a genius they are or they are wrong and no one remembers this dumb article anyway
Similar to some scoopers.
Quote from: DJO's Jaw on April 03, 2018, 07:27:34 AM
Here's Gary Parrish's first Top 25 and 1 for the 18-19 season:
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/2018-19-college-basketball-rankings-way-too-early-projection-has-kansas-and-duke-at-the-top/amp/?__twitter_impression=true (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/2018-19-college-basketball-rankings-way-too-early-projection-has-kansas-and-duke-at-the-top/amp/?__twitter_impression=true)
Wow, only one Big East team
The Big East loses a ton of star power. Trying to come up with the preseason all conference teams will be pretty tough.
Quote from: source? on April 03, 2018, 12:48:48 AM
I'll leave this here.
https://sports.yahoo.com/way-early-top-25-2018-19-college-basketball-season-033644755.html
Nice! Spot-on, quick-hitting analysis as well in the blurb.
Quote from: cheese ball chaser on April 03, 2018, 08:35:31 AM
Wow, only one Big East team
And with 7 ACC and 6 SEC teams in his Top 25...Gary must not be good at math...
Quote from: source? on April 03, 2018, 12:48:48 AM
I'll leave this here.
https://sports.yahoo.com/way-early-top-25-2018-19-college-basketball-season-033644755.html
Feels about right. Wisconsin should be around 30ish, but they will be back. MU top 25 yes. Great to see Coach Williams team up there with Virginia Tech. XU remains but no Louisville.
Quote from: WarriorDad on April 03, 2018, 09:16:36 AM
Feels about right. Wisconsin should be around 30ish, but they will be back. MU top 25 yes. Great to see Coach Williams team up there with Virginia Tech. XU remains but no Louisville.
Sweet diversion...keep them all guessing my man
I look at what a lot of these top 25 predictions are losing compared to what we lose, and what they gain compared to what we do (even without a grad transfer PG), and I think we're a safe top 25 team by conference play barring major injury.
Quote from: Ellenson Family Reunion on April 03, 2018, 10:37:47 AM
I look at what a lot of these top 25 predictions are losing compared to what we lose, and what they gain compared to what we do (even without a grad transfer PG), and I think we're a safe top 25 team by conference play barring major injury.
Honestly, our expectation should be that we're at top 15 team by seasons end. Polls are a fickle measure, but my expectation for next years team is a KenPom top 25 ranking and a Top 15 ranking in the polls. Anything less and we are underachieving our talent.
Quote from: MU82 on April 02, 2018, 09:58:07 AM
F%cky #15.
Thanks for posting, brew. I needed a morning chuckle.
It will be fun to beat them by 1,000 points again.
And if we lose to Bucky next year? At home? All things stay equal on both rosters, I certainly wouldn't consider MU a lock to win that game...and even if we get a solid grad transfer PG..doubt we would win in a blowout of any variety.
Quote from: Floorslapper on April 03, 2018, 12:56:43 PM
And if we lose to Bucky next year? At home? All things stay equal on both rosters, I certainly wouldn't consider MU a lock to win that game...and even if we get a solid grad transfer PG..doubt we would win in a blowout of any variety.
So do you think Rowsey was the sole reason we destroyed Bucky or that only they get better next year?
SB Nation:
23. Marquette Golden Eagles
2017-18 Record: 21-14
2017-18 Finish: NIT Quarterfinals
Expect Marquette to be slightly improved without the explosive Andrew Rowsey. Juniors Markus Howard and Sam Hauser have more than enough star power to get the Golden Eagles into the NCAA tournament in what feels like an important season for Steve Wojciechowski.
https://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2018/4/3/17189916/college-basketball-early-top-25-rankings-2019-kansas-duke-villanova-virginia-kentucky-gonzaga
Of note:
3. Nova
28. Loyola
33. Xavier
34. Wisconsin
Quote from: BagpipingBoxer on April 03, 2018, 01:00:10 PM
So do you think Rowsey was the sole reason we destroyed Bucky or that only they get better next year?
Well, it was Bucky's first game without Trice and King. Rowsey went for 24 points in 20 minutes with a 171 O-Rating.
My firm position is that I feel the "Team Wojo" crowd underestimate the value of Rowsey.
Quote from: Pakuni on April 03, 2018, 01:06:50 PM
SB Nation:
23. Marquette Golden Eagles
2017-18 Record: 21-14
2017-18 Finish: NIT Quarterfinals
Expect Marquette to be slightly improved without the explosive Andrew Rowsey. Juniors Markus Howard and Sam Hauser have more than enough star power to get the Golden Eagles into the NCAA tournament in what feels like an important season for Steve Wojciechowski.
https://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2018/4/3/17189916/college-basketball-early-top-25-rankings-2019-kansas-duke-villanova-virginia-kentucky-gonzaga
Of note:
3. Nova
28. Loyola
33. Xavier
34. Wisconsin
That is a very accurate assessment all around.
Quote from: Floorslapper on April 03, 2018, 01:07:33 PM
Well, it was Bucky's first game without Trice and King. Rowsey went for 24 points in 20 minutes with a 171 O-Rating.
My firm position is that I feel the "Team Wojo" crowd underestimate the value of Rowsey.
I don't underestimate Rowsey's value, what I properly estimate is the value of not giving Wojo the ability to play Rowsey and Howard together. Saying this team will be better next year without Rowsey is not a stretch when you assume(not unreasonably) that Rowsey's offense can be replaced with existing or new players while his defense can be vastly improved on with existing or new players
On offenseJunior Markus > Soph Markus
Junior Sacar <<< Senior Rowsey
Junior Sam(healthy) >> Soph Sacar
Junior Morrow = Soph Sam(not healthy)
Senior Heldt = Junior Heldt
On defenseJunior Markus = Soph Markus
Junior Sacar >>>> Senior Rowsey
Junior Sam(healthy) < Soph Sacar
Junior Morrow >> Soph Sam(not healthy)
Senior Heldt = Junior Heldt
Quote from: Floorslapper on April 03, 2018, 01:07:33 PM
Well, it was Bucky's first game without Trice and King. Rowsey went for 24 points in 20 minutes with a 171 O-Rating.
My firm position is that I feel the "Team Wojo" crowd underestimate the value of Rowsey.
Markus also went for 23 and didn't pick up one of the stupidest technical's ever. I think a lot of people have noted that we will miss AR's offense, however, as pointed out a couple of times, we lost quite a bit of offense from 16-17 to 17-18 (38 ppg vs 21 ppg that we're losing with AR gone) and we remained a very good offensive team.
Also, our ability to beat the badgers will once again depend on our ability to defend in the post. Matt did a great job this year, if he can do close to that next year, we should be fine.
Quote from: Floorslapper on April 03, 2018, 01:07:33 PM
Well, it was Bucky's first game without Trice and King. Rowsey went for 24 points in 20 minutes with a 171 O-Rating.
My firm position is that I feel the "Team Wojo" crowd underestimate the value of Rowsey.
Tremendous take from a Ners-It-All who just a couple years ago compared Rowsey unfavorably to Magic Dawson.Quote from: Floorslapper on April 03, 2018, 12:56:43 PM
And if we lose to Bucky next year? At home? All things stay equal on both rosters, I certainly wouldn't consider MU a lock to win that game...and even if we get a solid grad transfer PG..doubt we would win in a blowout of any variety.
And what if we do? What if we lose that game but otherwise go 29-1? What if we lose them all and go 0-30? What if we do anything in between those extremes?
Going in, did you believe this season's game at Kohl was going to be a blowout of any variety? I'd look it up, but you were banned from here and I don't read the other site that banned you multiple times.
Quote from: MU82 on April 03, 2018, 01:34:14 PM
Tremendous take from a Ners-It-All who just a couple years ago compared Rowsey unfavorably to Magic Dawson.
And what if we do? What if we lose that game but otherwise go 29-1? What if we lose them all and go 0-30? What if we do anything in between those extremes?
Going in, did you believe this season's game at Kohl was going to be a blowout of any variety? I'd look it up, but you were banned from here and I don't read the other site that banned you multiple times.
Said physically Rowsey was 30 pounds less and 4 shorter than Dawson, and both put up similar eFG% Numbers at their low major school at time I made post - and that size matters in Big East.
Now Rowsey exceeded my expectations, for sure. He was spectacular this year. That doesn't get lost on me. He was SO good offensively, that it will take a huge collective effort for the team to replace his production.
Players generally do improve year over year, yet opposition also adjusts. Markus took a step back as a sophomore. Am I convinced he will be improved next season, when he very likely might be forced into playing PG which is not his best position AND he won't have a guy of Rowsey's caliber on the floor to add spacing?
And yes, I was banned from Pollyanna John Dodds board 3 times. You should really consider taking your pollyanna viewpoint there 82. It would be a match made in heaven. You and Dodds in perfect harmony assuring each other year after year, to just wait till next year. You most definitely have a way of finding the silver lining in mediocrity.
Quote from: Floorslapper on April 03, 2018, 07:06:56 PMMarkus took a step back as a sophomore.
I guess it must be worth it to say things so mind-numbingly stupid if it gives you a chance to make @ScoopTakes.
Quote from: Floorslapper on April 03, 2018, 07:06:56 PM
Said physically Rowsey was 30 pounds less and 4 shorter than Dawson, and both put up similar eFG% Numbers at their low major school at time I made post - and that size matters in Big East.
Now Rowsey exceeded my expectations, for sure. He was spectacular this year. That doesn't get lost on me. He was SO good offensively, that it will take a huge collective effort for the team to replace his production.
Players generally do improve year over year, yet opposition also adjusts. Markus took a step back as a sophomore. Am I convinced he will be improved next season, when he very likely might be forced into playing PG which is not his best position AND he won't have a guy of Rowsey's caliber on the floor to add spacing?
And yes, I was banned from Pollyanna John Dodds board 3 times. You should really consider taking your pollyanna viewpoint there 82. It would be a match made in heaven. You and Dodds in perfect harmony assuring each other year after year, to just wait till next year. You most definitely have a way of finding the silver lining in mediocrity.
Well, if it's pollyanna to say that a kid who went from a 13-point scorer to a 20-point scorer and was named second-team All-Conference in one of the nation's best leagues DIDN'T take a step backward, then I plead guilty to being pollyanna.
We mere mortals here on Scoop just have to keep reminding ourselves that you know more about basketball than anybody - even the Big East coaches who stupidly honored Markus.
Rationalize your "Magic is better than Rowsey" declaration again for us, OK? Hilarious.
As long as Wojo is in charge, shouldn't the term be Poli-anna?
I'd just like to go on record that if what Markus did this year was a "step back", then I'd like to see him take another "step back" next season into what would likely be first team all conference.
Quote from: Lazar's Headband on April 03, 2018, 11:33:20 PM
As long as Wojo is in charge, shouldn't the term be Poli-anna?
Poli-ai'na?
Quote from: GB Warrior on April 04, 2018, 08:23:31 AM
Poli-ai'na?
(https://media.giphy.com/media/l1KXu3d3o7AyJNtkI/giphy.gif)
Quote from: brewcity77 on April 03, 2018, 09:30:01 PM
I guess it must be worth it to say things so mind-numbingly stupid if it gives you a chance to make @ScoopTakes.
Markus Freshman:
118.6 O Rating. 65.8% eFG. 19.9 Assist Rate. 54.7% 3pt FG% 25.4% Usage.
Markus Sophomore:
114.5 O Rating. 57.2% eFG. 18.4% Assist Rate. 40.4% 3pt FG%. 28.8% Usage
The splits look even worse if you compare his Advanced Stats in conference play freshman/sophomore year.
Facts are your friend Brew.
Quote from: MU82 on April 03, 2018, 10:59:17 PM
Well, if it's pollyanna to say that a kid who went from a 13-point scorer to a 20-point scorer and was named second-team All-Conference in one of the nation's best leagues DIDN'T take a step backward, then I plead guilty to being pollyanna.
We mere mortals here on Scoop just have to keep reminding ourselves that you know more about basketball than anybody - even the Big East coaches who stupidly honored Markus.
Rationalize your "Magic is better than Rowsey" declaration again for us, OK? Hilarious.
Guys, Markus clearly took a step back......from how great Ners was in high school.
Taking a step back is all about the reference point and Ners is super good and moving the reference point. It's almost a super power.
Quote from: Floorslapper on April 04, 2018, 09:37:12 AM
Markus Freshman:
118.6 O Rating. 65.8% eFG. 19.9 Assist Rate. 54.7% 3pt FG% 25.4% Usage.
Markus Sophomore:
114.5 O Rating. 57.2% eFG. 18.4% Assist Rate. 40.4% 3pt FG%. 28.8% Usage
The splits look even worse if you compare his Advanced Stats in conference play freshman/sophomore year.
Facts are your friend Brew.
Wait, his usage went up and his statistics went down......while being injured for a third of the conference season? This is madness, who could have seen this coming?
(http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/2012/11/fake_surprise.gif)
Quote from: mu03eng on April 04, 2018, 09:39:58 AM
Wait, his usage went up and his statistics went down......while being injured for a third of the conference season? This is madness, who could have seen this coming?
Cool. Until.
Markus's numbers actually slightly improved after the injury that in your world adversely "affected" 1/3rd of our conference season. But, it was only 5 of our 20 conference games. Furthermore, Markus's conference usage was all of 0.9% more as a sophomore than freshman.
Is what it is.
First bracket by Lunardi
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Last Four In
Miami
NC State
Marquette
Oklahoma State
First Four Out
Texas A&M
Notre Dame
Texas
Alabama
Next Four Out
Saint Joseph's
Wisconsin
Baylor
Indiana
Quote from: Mr. Nielsen on April 04, 2018, 09:53:36 AM
First bracket by Lunardi
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
If we're an 11 seed I'd call that a disappointing year
Quote from: BagpipingBoxer on April 04, 2018, 09:55:57 AM
If we're an 11 seed I'd call that a disappointing year
Sounds about right. Yet, many of the Wojo fan club will be calling it "progress," and further evidence that he could* evolve into a Jay Wright one day.
Boxer
If MU is an 11 seed next season, I will call it a success. One of the second year guys need to show major improvement, one newcomer has to be at least close to impact player, a PG needs to be found and Hauser's need to be healthy to have a chance at a higher seed. There are way too many "ifs" and next season will likely be a less entertaining version of this season. I would expect The Al will get some use next March. I suggest buying your tickets for The Al early.
Quote from: BagpipingBoxer on April 04, 2018, 09:55:57 AM
If we're an 11 seed I'd call that a disappointing year
Undoubtedly it would be. But if MU is ranked or just outside the rankings, like some outlets are suggesting, MU would be more like a 5 or 6 seed.
Quote from: Goose on April 04, 2018, 10:03:54 AM
Boxer
If MU is an 11 seed next season, I will call it a success. One of the second year guys need to show major improvement, one newcomer has to be at least close to impact player, a PG needs to be found and Hauser's need to be healthy to have a chance at a higher seed. There are way too many "ifs" and next season will likely be a less entertaining version of this season. I would expect The Al will get some use next March. I suggest buying your tickets for The Al early.
An 11 seed really isn't that much better than they were this year. The ceiling is higher.
sultan
Of course there is a chance for higher and I outlined what I believe is needed for that to happen. Lot of work to be done for them to be a lock NCAA team next season, and probably too much work, IMO.
Quote from: Mr. Nielsen on April 04, 2018, 09:53:36 AM
First bracket by Lunardi
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
11 teams from the ACC! Calm down there JoeyL
Quote from: Goose on April 04, 2018, 10:03:54 AM
Boxer
If MU is an 11 seed next season, I will call it a success. One of the second year guys need to show major improvement, one newcomer has to be at least close to impact player, a PG needs to be found and Hauser's need to be healthy to have a chance at a higher seed. There are way too many "ifs" and next season will likely be a less entertaining version of this season. I would expect The Al will get some use next March. I suggest buying your tickets for The Al early.
I believe it well stated that you are not as bullish on the team next year as we are. I respectfully disagree and will not be buying tickets as I'll be living in Ireland though thank you for the concern.
Quote from: #bansultan on April 04, 2018, 10:05:11 AM
Undoubtedly it would be. But if MU is ranked or just outside the rankings, like some outlets are suggesting, MU would be more like a 5 or 6 seed.
That's what I'm looking for next year
Quote from: Floorslapper on April 04, 2018, 09:50:17 AM
Cool. Until.
Markus's numbers actually slightly improved after the injury that in your world adversely "affected" 1/3rd of our conference season. But, it was only 5 of our 20 conference games. Furthermore, Markus's conference usage was all of 0.9% more as a sophomore than freshman.
Is what it is.
His numbers went up because his usage went down over that time period, but whatevs.
Quote from: BagpipingBoxer on April 04, 2018, 10:10:58 AM
I'll be living in Ireland though thank you for the concern.
Where? Just got back from 9 days over there(my first trip) and it was kind of amazing.
Quote from: mu03eng on April 04, 2018, 10:12:53 AM
Where? Just got back from 9 days over there(my first trip) and it was kind of amazing.
Nice, I'll be in Galway. Where'd you go?
Quote from: LoudMouth on April 04, 2018, 10:10:38 AM
11 teams from the ACC! Calm down there JoeyL
It's Early, and it's Marketing 101.
Boxer
USA's loss and Ireland's gain. We will place a Heldt jersey in your honor in the upper bowl.
Someone should also probably tell him that SH just graduated 4 Seniors, if they make it ahead of us next year either Wojo will be in real trouble or Willard will win conference coach of the year.
Quote from: Goose on April 04, 2018, 10:07:16 AM
sultan
Of course there is a chance for higher and I outlined what I believe is needed for that to happen. Lot of work to be done for them to be a lock NCAA team next season, and probably too much work, IMO.
I would be disappointed in an 11 seed.
The incoming talent makes up for the outgoing talent, especially the Morrow...I expect Sam and Greg to be back at full strength...I expect the returning players to improve - especially the three freshmen.
So I think taking the type of leap that TCU took this year (from NIT to #6 seed) for instance is completely realistic.
Quote from: Floorslapper on April 04, 2018, 09:37:12 AM
Markus Freshman:
118.6 O Rating. 65.8% eFG. 19.9 Assist Rate. 54.7% 3pt FG% 25.4% Usage.
Markus Sophomore:
114.5 O Rating. 57.2% eFG. 18.4% Assist Rate. 40.4% 3pt FG%. 28.8% Usage
The splits look even worse if you compare his Advanced Stats in conference play freshman/sophomore year.
Facts are your friend Brew.
No sure where you got your usage stats but I have 26.7 for FR Markus and 30.9 for SO Markus. A slightly bigger jump in usage. And a 4.2% jump in usage is worth a lot more than the slight dip in efficiency stats that we saw from Markus. You also left off that Markus increased his rebounding% though only by .2% and dropped his TO% by 4.4%. Markus also improved his on ball defense significantly, it was still bad but it was historically bad as a freshman.
Markus wasn't the most improved player on the team by any stretch, but SO Markus was better than FR Markus. You can't ignore the increase in minutes, usage, and the fact that he was at the top of every team's scouting report.
Quote from: mu03eng on April 04, 2018, 09:37:52 AM
Guys, Markus clearly took a step back......from how great Ners was in high school.
Taking a step back is all about the reference point and Ners is super good and moving the reference point. It's almost a super power.
Has the Dominic James-ing of Markus officially kicked off?
Quote from: Floorslapper on April 04, 2018, 10:01:20 AM
Sounds about right. Yet, many of the Wojo fan club will be calling it "progress," and further evidence that he could* evolve into a Jay Wright one day.
Let me be clear, unless there is a significant injury, an 11 seed would be a disappointing season and I would be moving from "wait and see" towards "fire wojo." I might give him one more season, but in my mind his seat would be blistering hot
Quote from: BagpipingBoxer on April 04, 2018, 10:15:08 AM
Nice, I'll be in Galway. Where'd you go?
Dublin, Galway, Connemara, Killarney, Dingle, Limerick, Tralee, Doolin/Cliffs of Moher
Galway and Doolin were by far my favorite places but all of it was awesome. Galway is basically a college town, yes it's got a lot of tourist stuff going on but it's a super fun place to hang out, get to the Latin Quarter, some good places to drink. I strongly recommend going to Limerick on a weekend, the music scene is ridiculous(especially Dolan's and Locke Bar...great food at the Curragower).
I'd skip Tralee, wasn't much to do/see there. Sky Road is a must in Connemarra
Did not meet one person who was not super friendly and engaging
Quote from: LoudMouth on April 04, 2018, 10:10:38 AM
11 teams from the ACC! Calm down there JoeyL
I'm pretty sure he does this every year
Quote from: TAMU Chardonnay on April 04, 2018, 10:31:18 AM
Let me be clear, unless there is a significant injury, an 11 seed would be a disappointing season and I would be moving from "wait and see" towards "fire wojo." I might give him one more season, but in my mind his seat would be blistering hot
This is 100% the correct take. I expect a top 4 seed in the tournament, will accept a top 7, and will be off the Wojo bandwagon for anything less. Not making the tournament or being close is a fireable offense
Quote from: Pakuni on April 04, 2018, 10:27:39 AM
Has the Dominic James-ing of Markus officially kicked off?
We're in range at least.
Quote from: TAMU Chardonnay on April 04, 2018, 10:26:52 AM
No sure where you got your usage stats but I have 26.7 for FR Markus and 30.9 for SO Markus. A slightly bigger jump in usage. And a 4.2% jump in usage is worth a lot more than the slight dip in efficiency stats that we saw from Markus. You also left off that Markus increased his rebounding% though only by .2% and dropped his TO% by 4.4%. Markus also improved his on ball defense significantly, it was still bad but it was historically bad as a freshman.
Markus wasn't the most improved player on the team by any stretch, but SO Markus was better than FR Markus. You can't ignore the increase in minutes, usage, and the fact that he was at the top of every team's scouting report.
I'd add the change in supporting cast was also a factor. Losing Johnson, Reinhardt, and Fischer made it easier for defenses to key on Markus and harder for Markus to get assists.
PS- Rowsey took an even bigger step back.
TAMU
I tell you often that you know your stuff and state your points in first class manner. Your comments on next season expectations is music to my ears. While I think your expectations are unrealistic, the fact you set the bar in regards to Wojo is awesome. I cannot speak for the anti Wojo camp, but I hope Wojo hits the bar you set. I would much rather see Wojo perform at high level than see him fail. That said, if he needs to go after next season, than I hope the next hire is a better fit.
Quote from: Goose on April 04, 2018, 10:03:54 AM
Boxer
If MU is an 11 seed next season, I will call it a success.
Bookmarking this
Quote from: Goose on April 04, 2018, 11:04:09 AM
TAMU
I tell you often that you know your stuff and state your points in first class manner. Your comments on next season expectations is music to my ears. While I think your expectations are unrealistic, the fact you set the bar in regards to Wojo is awesome. I cannot speak for the anti Wojo camp, but I hope Wojo hits the bar you set. I would much rather see Wojo perform at high level than see him fail. That said, if he needs to go after next season, than I hope the next hire is a better fit.
If Wojo leaves after next season, it wasn't a fit problem, it was a coaching problem. I will argue to my dying breath that Wojo is the perfect coach for MU, as long as he can actually coach (there's a lot more to being a D1 coach than actual coaching, it's just the most important thing). Next year represents the first time, short of some sort of injury bug, that there will be zero excuses around coaching.....either he can coach or he can't and next season will tell the tale.
mu03eng
I was being polite. If Wojo proves that he cannot coach, they sure as hell better find a guy that can coach.
Quote from: mu03eng on April 04, 2018, 11:17:52 AM
If Wojo leaves after next season, it wasn't a fit problem, it was a coaching problem. I will argue to my dying breath that Wojo is the perfect coach for MU, as long as he can actually coach (there's a lot more to being a D1 coach than actual coaching, it's just the most important thing). Next year represents the first time, short of some sort of injury bug, that there will be zero excuses around coaching.....either he can coach or he can't and next season will tell the tale.
This is an interesting point, and I don't mean this to argue against what you're saying, but rather raise IT for discussion.
I listened to an interview with Ed Cooley the other day, and he said Xs and Os really aren't an important part of his job. He said the most important parts of being a head coach are building relationships (with players, staff, administrators, recruiting contacts, etc.), and creating a culture.
That could all just be coachspeak, of course, but I think he has a point. Mike Deane could coach circles around Tom crean and Buzz Williams, but had a fraction of the success at Marquette because of his weakness in other areas.
Obviously you want a head coach who can coach and be a relationship guy.
And I agree, next season is a big one for Wojo. If he can't get a top 25-30 season out of this group, it's not a good sign.
TSmith
Why would you bookmark that? Do you think I would say it was not a success or do you think they will be much higher seed?
Quote from: Pakuni on April 04, 2018, 11:28:16 AM
This is an interesting point, and I don't mean this to argue against what you're saying, but rather raise IT for discussion.
I listened to an interview with Ed Cooley the other day, and he said Xs and Os really aren't an important part of his job. He said the most important parts of being a head coach are building relationships (with players, staff, administrators, recruiting contacts, etc.), and creating a culture.
That could all just be coachspeak, of course, but I think he has a point. Mike Deane could coach circles around Tom crean and Buzz Williams, but had a fraction of the success at Marquette because of his weakness in other areas.
Obviously you want a head coach who can coach and be a relationship guy.
And I agree, next season is a big one for Wojo. If he can't get a top 25-30 season out of this group, it's not a good sign.
I mean, I would defer to someone like Ed Cooley who is doing the job versus an internet idiot such as myself, so it has at least some merit. But whether it's the coach themselves or the staff he puts together, someone is doing the Xs and Os...and that was an issue this season at least from a line-up and defensive strategy standpoint IMO. It's clear to me that Rowsey and Howard couldn't play together for the season to be a success and Wojo just didn't make that move. Whether he didn't see it or didn't want to do it is irrelevant it comes down to not putting your team in a position to succeed.
I think if you have enough talent/experience you can overcome a "coaching problem", which next year should represent. But if this team doesn't succeed next year I think it's evidence that whatever you call the problem it's too much for Wojo to overcome.
Quote from: Floorslapper on April 04, 2018, 09:37:12 AM
Markus Freshman:
118.6 O Rating. 65.8% eFG. 19.9 Assist Rate. 54.7% 3pt FG% 25.4% Usage.
Markus Sophomore:
114.5 O Rating. 57.2% eFG. 18.4% Assist Rate. 40.4% 3pt FG%. 28.8% Usage
The splits look even worse if you compare his Advanced Stats in conference play freshman/sophomore year.
Facts are your friend Brew.
You're right, facts are my friend. Sadly, they are not yours. Statistics are also not your friend when you don't know how to use them. Last night when I posted that, I considered adding this gif to the post...
(https://media.giphy.com/media/lk0TFUdop2JTW/giphy.gif)
Instead, I just bumped this thread (https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=54665.0) from the preseason. In it, I posted how in the previous decade, over 60% of the players that shot 50% from three and returned for another season failed to even shoot 40% again. I repeated in there quite a few times that most likely, Markus was going to shoot under 40% from three. I also stated that if he maintained over 40% for his career, he would have to be considered an all-time great as only two of the shooters to ever hit 50% also never dropped below 40% for a season.
Now, to your misuse of statistics. If the barometer for Markus' three-point percentage was accurately placed at 40%, then it would have to be argued that he exceeded expectations. He is in the minority of players to follow up a season as successful as he had from beyond the arc in 2017 with one as successful as he had in 2018.
So we place the over/under on 3PFG% at 40%, which was the number Ellenson Family Reunion stated was the absolute minimum Markus would shoot and the baseline I gave for him being considered for all-time great status, and project it along with his 2017 2PFG% with the quantity of shots he took in 2018, we get the following:
40% of 275 3PFGs = 110/275
45.4% of 240 2PFGs = 109/240
Expected eFG% = ((110 x 1.5) + (109)) / 515
Doing the math, Markus' expected eFG% for 2018 would be 53.2%. However, his actual eFG% was 57.2%. Why? Because he exceeded expectations (albeit minimally) on three-poing shooting but moreso because he exceeded expectations massively (almost 9% better) on two-point shooting.
So the dips you point out in 3PFG% and eFG% were actually both cases where Markus exceeded expectations historically based on other similar players and personally based on his own 2017 tendencies. Again, it's not just looking at statistics and facts, it's understanding how to interpret them that matters.
The next consideration is one of role. In 2017, Markus played as our primary point guard. Looking at Pomeroy, Markus was playing PG for Marquette 68% of the time over our past 5 games with Rowsey playing the other 32%. Rowsey was our primary SG during that same period. In 2017, Markus was our point guard. His job was not only to score, but to distribute. His assist rate led the team because that was his job. In 2018, his job changed. Again, looking at those last 5 games, Rowsey played the point 92% of the time while Markus was only there 8%. Not surprisingly, Rowsey's assist rate improved significantly while Markus' own declined slightly. This was not because of some decline in his game, it was because of a change in his role. Wojo made him into our SG and his game adjusted accordingly.
His usage went up, his efficiency went down, which is what's expected for virtually any player. If you think a player's offensive rating should hold level regardless of usage, I suppose you advocate running the offense through Matt Heldt.
Markus improved obviously not just because of what we saw on the court but what we saw statistically. His 3PFG% dropped but his efficiency and eFG% did not drop as much as one would expect because of other improvements in his game. His assist rate dropped because Wojo changed his role and made him into more of a scorer than distributor. Further, he improved his rebounding and turnover percentages while fouling less on defense and drawing more fouls on offense. In absolutely no way did Markus take "a step back" as you foolishly said. Anyone who actually interprets statistics and doesn't just regurgitate them without context would understand that.
Quote from: Floorslapper on April 03, 2018, 01:07:33 PM
Well, it was Bucky's first game without Trice and King. Rowsey went for 24 points in 20 minutes with a 171 O-Rating.
My firm position is that I feel the "Team Wojo" crowd underestimate the value of Rowsey.
I agree with this analysis.
Quote from: Goose on April 04, 2018, 11:31:06 AM
TSmith
Why would you bookmark that? Do you think I would say it was not a success or do you think they will be much higher seed?
Both, but I'd bookmark it for the former. I am not trying to take a shot at you, but I suspect you will not be satisfied with an 11 seed.
FWIW, I would be pretty disappointed with an 11 seed.
TSmith
You are incorrect. I would be fine with an 11 seed. To get an 11 seed, Wojo is going to have to coach is butt off between now and next March. IMO, that would be a first step in progress for the Wojo era. I am not joking on this.
It wouldn't be the first time I am incorrect.
Is the offseason almost over yet?
Quote from: brewcity77 on April 04, 2018, 12:06:13 PM
You're right, facts are my friend. Sadly, they are not yours. Statistics are also not your friend when you don't know how to use them. Last night when I posted that, I considered adding this gif to the post...
(https://media.giphy.com/media/lk0TFUdop2JTW/giphy.gif)
Instead, I just bumped this thread (https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=54665.0) from the preseason. In it, I posted how in the previous decade, over 60% of the players that shot 50% from three and returned for another season failed to even shoot 40% again. I repeated in there quite a few times that most likely, Markus was going to shoot under 40% from three. I also stated that if he maintained over 40% for his career, he would have to be considered an all-time great as only two of the shooters to ever hit 50% also never dropped below 40% for a season.
Now, to your misuse of statistics. If the barometer for Markus' three-point percentage was accurately placed at 40%, then it would have to be argued that he exceeded expectations. He is in the minority of players to follow up a season as successful as he had from beyond the arc in 2017 with one as successful as he had in 2018.
So we place the over/under on 3PFG% at 40%, which was the number Ellenson Family Reunion stated was the absolute minimum Markus would shoot and the baseline I gave for him being considered for all-time great status, and project it along with his 2017 2PFG% with the quantity of shots he took in 2018, we get the following:
40% of 275 3PFGs = 110/275
45.4% of 240 2PFGs = 109/240
Expected eFG% = ((110 x 1.5) + (109)) / 515
Doing the math, Markus' expected eFG% for 2018 would be 53.2%. However, his actual eFG% was 57.2%. Why? Because he exceeded expectations (albeit minimally) on three-poing shooting but moreso because he exceeded expectations massively (almost 9% better) on two-point shooting.
So the dips you point out in 3PFG% and eFG% were actually both cases where Markus exceeded expectations historically based on other similar players and personally based on his own 2017 tendencies. Again, it's not just looking at statistics and facts, it's understanding how to interpret them that matters.
The next consideration is one of role. In 2017, Markus played as our primary point guard. Looking at Pomeroy, Markus was playing PG for Marquette 68% of the time over our past 5 games with Rowsey playing the other 32%. Rowsey was our primary SG during that same period. In 2017, Markus was our point guard. His job was not only to score, but to distribute. His assist rate led the team because that was his job. In 2018, his job changed. Again, looking at those last 5 games, Rowsey played the point 92% of the time while Markus was only there 8%. Not surprisingly, Rowsey's assist rate improved significantly while Markus' own declined slightly. This was not because of some decline in his game, it was because of a change in his role. Wojo made him into our SG and his game adjusted accordingly.
His usage went up, his efficiency went down, which is what's expected for virtually any player. If you think a player's offensive rating should hold level regardless of usage, I suppose you advocate running the offense through Matt Heldt.
Markus improved obviously not just because of what we saw on the court but what we saw statistically. His 3PFG% dropped but his efficiency and eFG% did not drop as much as one would expect because of other improvements in his game. His assist rate dropped because Wojo changed his role and made him into more of a scorer than distributor. Further, he improved his rebounding and turnover percentages while fouling less on defense and drawing more fouls on offense. In absolutely no way did Markus take "a step back" as you foolishly said. Anyone who actually interprets statistics and doesn't just regurgitate them without context would understand that.
Man, I love seeing Ners-It-Alls get the smug slapped out of them. Great job, brew, and also by TAMU and mu03eng.
Most of us didn't even need these stats. The eye test also told us that Markus improved as a sophomore. For an "expert" like Ners, you'd think that's all he'd need. I mean, I hear he played high school ball.
Quote from: brewcity77 on April 04, 2018, 12:06:13 PM
You're right, facts are my friend. Sadly, they are not yours. Statistics are also not your friend when you don't know how to use them. Last night when I posted that, I considered adding this gif to the post...
Instead, I just bumped this thread (https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=54665.0) from the preseason. In it, I posted how in the previous decade, over 60% of the players that shot 50% from three and returned for another season failed to even shoot 40% again. I repeated in there quite a few times that most likely, Markus was going to shoot under 40% from three. I also stated that if he maintained over 40% for his career, he would have to be considered an all-time great as only two of the shooters to ever hit 50% also never dropped below 40% for a season.
Now, to your misuse of statistics. If the barometer for Markus' three-point percentage was accurately placed at 40%, then it would have to be argued that he exceeded expectations. He is in the minority of players to follow up a season as successful as he had from beyond the arc in 2017 with one as successful as he had in 2018.
So we place the over/under on 3PFG% at 40%, which was the number Ellenson Family Reunion stated was the absolute minimum Markus would shoot and the baseline I gave for him being considered for all-time great status, and project it along with his 2017 2PFG% with the quantity of shots he took in 2018, we get the following:
40% of 275 3PFGs = 110/275
45.4% of 240 2PFGs = 109/240
Expected eFG% = ((110 x 1.5) + (109)) / 515
Doing the math, Markus' expected eFG% for 2018 would be 53.2%. However, his actual eFG% was 57.2%. Why? Because he exceeded expectations (albeit minimally) on three-poing shooting but moreso because he exceeded expectations massively (almost 9% better) on two-point shooting.
So the dips you point out in 3PFG% and eFG% were actually both cases where Markus exceeded expectations historically based on other similar players and personally based on his own 2017 tendencies. Again, it's not just looking at statistics and facts, it's understanding how to interpret them that matters.
The next consideration is one of role. In 2017, Markus played as our primary point guard. Looking at Pomeroy, Markus was playing PG for Marquette 68% of the time over our past 5 games with Rowsey playing the other 32%. Rowsey was our primary SG during that same period. In 2017, Markus was our point guard. His job was not only to score, but to distribute. His assist rate led the team because that was his job. In 2018, his job changed. Again, looking at those last 5 games, Rowsey played the point 92% of the time while Markus was only there 8%. Not surprisingly, Rowsey's assist rate improved significantly while Markus' own declined slightly. This was not because of some decline in his game, it was because of a change in his role. Wojo made him into our SG and his game adjusted accordingly.
His usage went up, his efficiency went down, which is what's expected for virtually any player. If you think a player's offensive rating should hold level regardless of usage, I suppose you advocate running the offense through Matt Heldt.
Markus improved obviously not just because of what we saw on the court but what we saw statistically. His 3PFG% dropped but his efficiency and eFG% did not drop as much as one would expect because of other improvements in his game. His assist rate dropped because Wojo changed his role and made him into more of a scorer than distributor. Further, he improved his rebounding and turnover percentages while fouling less on defense and drawing more fouls on offense. In absolutely no way did Markus take "a step back" as you foolishly said. Anyone who actually interprets statistics and doesn't just regurgitate them without context would understand that.
So...it took all of this pretzel logic to rebut my below post? Seems a little far fetched Brew. But, appreciate the effort.
Markus Freshman:
118.6 O Rating. 65.8% eFG. 19.9 Assist Rate. 54.7% 3pt FG% 25.4% Usage.
Markus Sophomore:
114.5 O Rating. 57.2% eFG. 18.4% Assist Rate. 40.4% 3pt FG%. 28.8% Usage
The splits look even worse if you compare his Advanced Stats in conference play freshman/sophomore year.
Facts are your friend Brew.
Quote from: MU82 on April 04, 2018, 03:58:42 PM
Man, I love seeing Ners-It-Alls get the smug slapped out of them. Great job, brew, and also by TAMU and mu03eng.
Most of us didn't even need these stats. The eye test also told us that Markus improved as a sophomore. For an "expert" like Ners, you'd think that's all he'd need. I mean, I hear he played high school ball.
You have some serious issues dude.
Somebody has serious issues......I have a feeling it isn't 82.....
Quote from: MuMark on April 04, 2018, 07:41:28 PM
Somebody has serious issues......I have a feeling it isn't 82.....
LOL - 82 is obsessed with me. But, nice to see you markedman, coming to the defense of one of your fellow pollyanna posters. Know you are all in and bullish on Wojo. 4 years in, not 1 NCAA win. Not exactly lighting the world on fire. And, we have a major hole in the roster going into Year 5, with no depth at PG position.
But hey, just wait till next year!
Quote from: Floorslapper on April 04, 2018, 07:36:16 PM
So...it took all of this pretzel logic to rebut my below post? Seems a little far fetched Brew. But, appreciate the effort.
Markus Freshman:
118.6 O Rating. 65.8% eFG. 19.9 Assist Rate. 54.7% 3pt FG% 25.4% Usage.
Markus Sophomore:
114.5 O Rating. 57.2% eFG. 18.4% Assist Rate. 40.4% 3pt FG%. 28.8% Usage
The splits look even worse if you compare his Advanced Stats in conference play freshman/sophomore year.
Facts are your friend Brew.
I can always on you to double down on your own stupidity. Quote the post that proves your inability to talk intelligently about a subject, then repeat the phrase that demonstrates your inability.
U guys make my head hurt
Quote from: Floorslapper on April 04, 2018, 07:49:25 PM
LOL - 82 is obsessed with me. But, nice to see you markedman, coming to the defense of one of your fellow pollyanna posters. Know you are all in and bullish on Wojo. 4 years in, not 1 NCAA win. Not exactly lighting the world on fire. And, we have a major hole in the roster going into Year 5, with no depth at PG position.
But hey, just wait till next year!
You'll have been banned a couple more times by then.
Love,
Polly
Quote from: Pakuni on April 04, 2018, 11:28:16 AM
This is an interesting point, and I don't mean this to argue against what you're saying, but rather raise IT for discussion.
I listened to an interview with Ed Cooley the other day, and he said Xs and Os really aren't an important part of his job. He said the most important parts of being a head coach are building relationships (with players, staff, administrators, recruiting contacts, etc.), and creating a culture.
That could all just be coachspeak, of course, but I think he has a point. Mike Deane could coach circles around Tom crean and Buzz Williams, but had a fraction of the success at Marquette because of his weakness in other areas.
Obviously you want a head coach who can coach and be a relationship guy.
And I agree, next season is a big one for Wojo. If he can't get a top 25-30 season out of this group, it's not a good sign.
i like this perspective. ed has been around long enough to know what he is talking about. being successful at what he is referencing plays directly into getting the most and/or more out of the players he has recruited. if the player can relate to you, they will perform for you...don't ever forget-jimmy v. trust and believe in the system. there's just something about wojo that tells me he gets this. i think(hope like hell) he is one tick away
Quote from: MU82 on April 04, 2018, 09:08:23 PM
You'll have been banned a couple more times by then.
Love,
Polly
hey 82, seeing as how yogi(sniff-sniff) is no longer with us, i think ya just found your new yogi and boo-boo, ehyn'er?
A couple of thoughts about next year that I have and feel fairly strongly about:
1) I know we will be better but I do not like the idea that people see us as a Top 25 team. We Scoopers and the True Believers put enough pressure on this team. I know we expect a Top 25 team, but not sure I like it in writing from so-called experts. I'd rather have us sneak up on people.
2) With Rowsey gone, we make the broad-based assumption that someone single-handedly has to make up his scoring. WRONG!!!! I'm confident that our offense should be more balanced, that our inside people will become more prolific scorers and that Matt Heldt/Ed Morrow et al will get more than 2.2 points per game. I'm high on Bailey and think that Greg Elliott could become a major asset to us as well, but I also think for us to break into the NCAA tournament and have an impact, we will have to be a balanced team. No more hero ball.
3) If we don't play defense, we will have a 50-year streak with the NIT. The point guard Wojo and Stan are scouring the country for needs to be found and needs to set the defensive tone.
4) I've said it before and I will say it again. If we don't make the NCAA, Wojo's seat will be 1000 degrees Kelvin and he will be shaking hands with Beelzebub. If we are a one-and-done team, it will be a strong disappointment.
5) The best thing that ever happened to the NCAA was Loyola. It proves a hot team with heart and defense can go far. A little belief helps too. I expect us to be in that position a year from now --- but don't tell anyone!
6) Beat the Rodent!
Quote from: rocket surgeon on April 04, 2018, 09:27:18 PM
hey 82, seeing as how yogi(sniff-sniff) is no longer with us, i think ya just found your new yogi and boo-boo, ehyn'er?
Oh, you know chicos is still here.
I got no problem with you, rocket. You've got a good heart.
Quote from: dgies9156 on April 04, 2018, 09:43:16 PM
A couple of thoughts about next year that I have and feel fairly strongly about:
1) I know we will be better but I do not like the idea that people see us as a Top 25 team. We Scoopers and the True Believers put enough pressure on this team. I know we expect a Top 25 team, but not sure I like it in writing from so-called experts. I'd rather have us sneak up on people.
2) With Rowsey gone, we make the broad-based assumption that someone single-handedly has to make up his scoring. WRONG!!!! I'm confident that our offense should be more balanced, that our inside people will become more prolific scorers and that Matt Heldt/Ed Morrow et al will get more than 2.2 points per game. I'm high on Bailey and think that Greg Elliott could become a major asset to us as well, but I also think for us to break into the NCAA tournament and have an impact, we will have to be a balanced team. No more hero ball.
3) If we don't play defense, we will have a 50-year streak with the NIT. The point guard Wojo and Stan are scouring the country for needs to be found and needs to set the defensive tone.
4) I've said it before and I will say it again. If we don't make the NCAA, Wojo's seat will be 1000 degrees Kelvin and he will be shaking hands with Beelzebub. If we are a one-and-done team, it will be a strong disappointment.
5) The best thing that ever happened to the NCAA was Loyola. It proves a hot team with heart and defense can go far. A little belief helps too. I expect us to be in that position a year from now --- but don't tell anyone!
6) Beat the Rodent!
Loyola will be by and large remembered like VCU and George Mason before them. Nice story. That's about it.
Quote from: rocket surgeon on April 04, 2018, 09:27:18 PM
hey 82, seeing as how yogi(sniff-sniff) is no longer with us, i think ya just found your new yogi and boo-boo, ehyn'er?
Wut?
Quote from: TSmith34 on April 05, 2018, 09:28:13 AM
Wut?
Don't try to translate rocket. It results in brain injuries.
Quote from: MU82 on April 05, 2018, 10:25:49 AM
Don't try to translate rocket. It is the results in of brain injuries.
FIFY
Quote from: #bansultan on April 04, 2018, 09:50:42 PM
Loyola will be by and large remembered like VCU and George Mason before them. Nice story. That's about it.
It's too early to tell. If they have sustained success and Moser builds a culture of winning, I could see them being a perennial contender out of the MVC.
Quote from: #bansultan on April 04, 2018, 09:50:42 PM
Loyola will be by and large remembered like VCU and George Mason before them. Nice story. That's about it.
I think they'll be remembered much more fondly. The way they won most of those games, the Sister Jean factor and the plucky little urban Catholic school thing they had going for them, will make Loyola's run far more memorable than that of the other 11 seeds who've been to a Final Four.
Quote from: Pakuni on April 05, 2018, 12:44:49 PM
I think they'll be remembered much more fondly. The way they won most of those games, the Sister Jean factor and the plucky little urban Catholic school thing they had going for them, will make Loyola's run far more memorable than that of the other 11 seeds who've been to a Final Four.
Absolutely.
Quote from: Pakuni on April 05, 2018, 12:44:49 PM
I think they'll be remembered much more fondly. The way they won most of those games, the Sister Jean factor and the plucky little urban Catholic school thing they had going for them, will make Loyola's run far more memorable than that of the other 11 seeds who've been to a Final Four.
Ditto.
Quote from: Pakuni on April 05, 2018, 12:44:49 PM
I think they'll be remembered much more fondly. The way they won most of those games, the Sister Jean factor and the plucky little urban Catholic school thing they had going for them, will make Loyola's run far more memorable than that of the other 11 seeds who've been to a Final Four.
It will be regional in nature.
For the people on this board, primarily upper midwesterners, Loyola's run will mean much more than it will to those of us outside that region.
Wait ... what ... Loyola was in the Final Four?
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-04-04/duke-villanova-kansas-lead-early-look-top-2019-contenders
Big East: Villanova could/should be the class of the league, assuming the Wildcats don't get gutted by early-entry decisions. Let's assume that there isn't a mass exodus, and with the addition of Cole Swider, the Wildcats should be right back near the top. Donte DiViencenzo is more than capable of being the star once Jalen Brunson is gone. But never assume everyone stays.
The Big East was top heavy with senior-laden teams. So, there will be a bit of reshuffling. Marquette could be the sleeper team with Markus Howard, Sam and Joey Hauser and transfer Ed Morrow. Providence still has Alpha Diallo, Nate Watson and David Duke. Xavier returns Naji Marshall and Paul Scruggs, Quentin Goodin and Kaiser Gates.
Quote from: Frenns Liquor Depot on April 03, 2018, 09:19:35 AM
Sweet diversion...keep them all guessing my man
I have been nothing but complimentary to Coach Williams and former Marquette coaches. My only gripe with him is the comments he made about the Big East, which look more and more absurd as Nova tacks on titles, the conference remains ranked in the top 3.
https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=55605.0
Quote from: WarriorDad on April 07, 2018, 11:52:10 AM
I have been nothing but complimentary to Coach Williams and former Marquette coaches. My only gripe with him is the comments he made about the Big East, which look more and more absurd as Nova tacks on titles, the conference remains ranked in the top 3.
https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=55605.0
You're pathetic Chicos. Go have a beer summit and stay there.
Quote from: Pakuni on April 04, 2018, 11:28:16 AM
This is an interesting point, and I don't mean this to argue against what you're saying, but rather raise IT for discussion.
I listened to an interview with Ed Cooley the other day, and he said Xs and Os really aren't an important part of his job. He said the most important parts of being a head coach are building relationships (with players, staff, administrators, recruiting contacts, etc.), and creating a culture.
That could all just be coachspeak, of course, but I think he has a point. Mike Deane could coach circles around Tom crean and Buzz Williams, but had a fraction of the success at Marquette because of his weakness in other areas.
Obviously you want a head coach who can coach and be a relationship guy.
And I agree, next season is a big one for Wojo. If he can't get a top 25-30 season out of this group, it's not a good sign.
#assistantsMatta
Quote from: dgies9156 on April 04, 2018, 09:43:16 PM
A couple of thoughts about next year that I have and feel fairly strongly about:
1) I know we will be better but I do not like the idea that people see us as a Top 25 team. We Scoopers and the True Believers put enough pressure on this team. I know we expect a Top 25 team, but not sure I like it in writing from so-called experts. I'd rather have us sneak up on people.
2) With Rowsey gone, we make the broad-based assumption that someone single-handedly has to make up his scoring. WRONG!!!! I'm confident that our offense should be more balanced, that our inside people will become more prolific scorers and that Matt Heldt/Ed Morrow et al will get more than 2.2 points per game. I'm high on Bailey and think that Greg Elliott could become a major asset to us as well, but I also think for us to break into the NCAA tournament and have an impact, we will have to be a balanced team. No more hero ball.
3) If we don't play defense, we will have a 50-year streak with the NIT. The point guard Wojo and Stan are scouring the country for needs to be found and needs to set the defensive tone.
4) I've said it before and I will say it again. If we don't make the NCAA, Wojo's seat will be 1000 degrees Kelvin and he will be shaking hands with Beelzebub. If we are a one-and-done team, it will be a strong disappointment.
5) The best thing that ever happened to the NCAA was Loyola. It proves a hot team with heart and defense can go far. A little belief helps too. I expect us to be in that position a year from now --- but don't tell anyone!
6) Beat the Rodent!
What makes you so sure?
Quote from: Eldon on April 07, 2018, 12:30:34 PM
What makes you so sure?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7G_Gw8rbihY