Poll
Question:
Will we get a bid with a 1-1 finish in NY
Option 1: Yes
votes: 94
Option 2: No
votes: 102
It's looks like we're locked into the 7 seed. I think everyone agrees that 0-1 we're out and 2 wins or better we're in, question is, is 1-1 enough to get to into the tourney?
The only thing I like about this draw is that if you take care of business against depaul then you have one game against nova for a spot in the tournament, win and you're in and you can relax on Sunday
I know it didn't help a couple years ago but 20 is a magic number.
Beating DePaul does absolutely nothing for our metrics. Beating Villanova and losing in the semis is probably the right side of the bubble but no guarantee.
Quote from: chapman on March 03, 2018, 09:29:22 PM
Beating DePaul does absolutely nothing for our metrics. Beating Villanova and losing in the semis is probably the right side of the bubble but no guarantee.
Haha, if we beat Nova, have a margarita and relax.
Need to beat Nova no matter what now to get in I believe. A win vs Providence might've been just enough to get them over the hump but beating DePaul doesn't help at all. Need to beat DePaul and Nova to get in unless some magic on the bubble happens and a bunch of bubble teams add a bad loss
Quote from: Otule's Glass Eye on March 03, 2018, 09:38:34 PM
Need to beat Nova no matter what now yo get in I believe. A win vs Providence might've been just enough to get them over the hump but beating DePaul doesn't help at all. Need to beat DePaul and Nova to get in unless some magic on the bubble happens and a bunch of bubble teams add a bad loss
Is this just your unsubstantiated belief?
Quote from: cschor on March 03, 2018, 09:14:10 PM
I know it didn't help a couple years ago but 20 is a magic number.
We heard for a month or more that 9-9 was the magic set of numbers.
(Not to be confused with 9-9-9, MUFINY's alter-ego.)
Quote from: MU82 on March 03, 2018, 09:47:26 PM
We heard for a month or more that 9-9 was the magic set of numbers.
(Not to be confused with 9-9-9, MUFINY's alter-ego.)
9-9 with a loss to DePaul is a lot different than 9-9 without a loss to DePaul. Trade that DePaul loss for any one of our wins and we're already in IMO
I think it should but I don't know that it will.
Quote from: chapman on March 03, 2018, 09:29:22 PM
Beating DePaul does absolutely nothing for our metrics. Beating Villanova and losing in the semis is probably the right side of the bubble but no guarantee.
IF we beat nova and dont get in at 20-13 there better be riots.
Quote from: #UnleashRowsey on March 03, 2018, 09:53:39 PM
IF we beat nova and dont get in at 20-13 there better be riots.
I agree with this analysis. Would be unheard of
Quote from: Its DJOver on March 03, 2018, 09:49:37 PM
9-9 with a loss to DePaul is a lot different than 9-9 without a loss to DePaul. Trade that DePaul loss for any one of our wins and we're already in IMO
I understand, but not sure our resident bracketologists made that distinction. Or if they did, I apologize cuz I missed it. It's all good, though. Shows it's far from an exact science.
Take it two da streets y'all, hey?
Quote from: MU82 on March 03, 2018, 09:59:08 PM
I understand, but not sure our resident bracketologists made that distinction. Or if they did, I apologize cuz I missed it. It's all good, though. Shows it's far from an exact science.
Agree, sure am glad lunardi and palm arnt on the comitee, based on the blind resume checks TAMU has been providing, i think 1-1 Will get us to Dayton
I think 1-1 gets us in, but barely. Probably playing in Dayton. Bid thieves could push us to the NIT. I think we need to play on Saturday to feel completely confident, but winning Wednesday is probably (66/34) enough.
Quote from: brewcity77 on March 03, 2018, 10:15:52 PM
I think 1-1 gets us in, but barely. Probably playing in Dayton. Bid thieves could push us to the NIT. I think we need to play on Saturday to feel completely confident, but winning Wednesday is probably (66/34) enough.
I hope your right, to me it just feels like we did enough and should be in barring a disaster with Depaul.
Quote from: Anti-Dentite on March 03, 2018, 10:29:00 PM
I hope your right, to me it just feels like we did enough and should be in barring a disaster with Depaul.
It's so maddening/frustrating to think that had they just beaten DePaul one week ago, we wouldn't be having this discussion..they'd be safely in.
Quote from: muguru on March 03, 2018, 10:31:14 PM
It's so maddening/frustrating to think that had they just beaten DePaul one week ago, we wouldn't be having this discussion..they'd be safely in.
I meant on Wednesday but point taken.
Quote from: muguru on March 03, 2018, 10:31:14 PM
It's so maddening/frustrating to think that had they just beaten DePaul one week ago, we wouldn't be having this discussion..they'd be safely in.
I feel you...but we could have just as easily lost some of the tough games we won. Basketball is funny like that. According to T-Rank, it would be a bad idea to sub the DePaul loss for the win at Seton Hall. We are what our record is.
As for the original question. I think 1-1 is enough to be one of the 48 most tournament worthy teams in the country. Any bid stealers at all and it could/should push us to the NIT.
I do think the bracketologists will be historically inaccurate due to the rumored changes in the committee's selection process. Hopefully it's the kind of inaccurate that pushes up the S curve and not down it.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on March 03, 2018, 11:10:23 PM
I feel you...but we could have just as easily lost some of the tough games we won. Basketball is funny like that. According to T-Rank, it would be a bad idea to sub the DePaul loss for the win at Seton Hall.
I don't want to tell T rank it's wrong because I'm sure it knows more than me, but I would trade a Q1 win for a Q3 loss. Not many bubble teams have no Q3 losses pulling for them (I hope Georgia can get it together and get back to Q2)
Quote from: Its DJOver on March 03, 2018, 11:14:27 PM
I don't want to tell T rank it's wrong because I'm sure it knows more than me, but I would trade a Q1 win for a Q3 loss. Not many bubble teams have no Q3 losses pulling for them (I hope Georgia can get it together and get back to Q2)
Just look at the top 16 the committee put out earlier this year. They care about who you beat not who you lose to. You can't have multiple dreadful losses but they will look past one if you have a quality road win or a win over a top 10 team.
1-1 and we will be sweating on Sunday as we would be right on the bubble, we could go either way depending on what the committee values more this year.
Our RPI would be 58 and our SOS would be 25.
I think it would get us in because looking at other teams, I believe we have a better overall resume, but I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't.
Beating Villanova and then losing to SH/Butler pushes our RPI up to 49-53 which should make us a solid 11 seed imo.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on March 03, 2018, 11:18:18 PM
Just look at the top 16 the committee put out earlier this year. They care about who you beat not who you lose to. You can't have multiple dreadful losses but they will look past one if you have a quality road win or a win over a top 10 team.
As I said, T rank is probably right. Just based on what I think what make a better resume, no bad losses is better than one less good win. We'll see in just over a week
1-1 with a close loss to Villanova will do it, if there are not bid stealers.
I think 1-1 gets us to Dayton, but I'll be nervous on SS if that's what happens.
Quote from: bilsu on March 04, 2018, 12:42:38 AM
1-1 with a close loss to Villanova will do it, if there are not bid stealers.
I partly agree with this but besides bid stealers there is the probability of fellow bubble teams outperforming us in their conference tourneys. I think that a DePaul win will have us IN, but that 2-3 fellow bubble teams will play further into their conference tourneys and by Saturday we will be pushed out if we go 1-1. I also think the Committee will try to avoid putting 7 out of 10 BE teams in the tourney if they have a legit reason to do so. 1-1 gives them that out.
Losin' ta Dapal wood take da anxiety outta it, hey?
What's worse is, had MU beaten DePaul last weekend, they'd be comfortably in, AND have the #3 seed in the BET. :-\
Losing at DePaul was bad, but I think the 3 straight home losses a month ago was really the warriors problem...if there was a problem this season.
Quote from: kryza on March 03, 2018, 11:20:33 PM
Our RPI would be 58 and our SOS would be 25.
***approximatelt/projected. So many games influence our RPI - don't know where it would land exactly... and 55 would sure look better than 60 a1na
I think MU needs two. I thought there was an outside chance that had Seton Hall lost to Butler and then lost in the first round MU might be able to steal their or Friars' bid with a victory against Providence in the BET.
Now MU needs to do better in the tourney and steal one from another conference.
Quote from: brewcity77 on March 03, 2018, 10:15:52 PM
I think 1-1 gets us in, but barely. Probably playing in Dayton. Bid thieves could push us to the NIT. I think we need to play on Saturday to feel completely confident, but winning Wednesday is probably (66/34) enough.
A win over DePaul who is the bottom feeder of Beast does not get us in. On the other hand, a loss to DePaul, which we already have accomplished, should flush us right down the crapper.
Quote from: willie warrior on March 04, 2018, 08:55:12 AM
A win over DePaul who is the bottom feeder of Beast does not get us in. On the other hand, a loss to DePaul, which we already have accomplished, should flush us right down the crapper.
Your focus is on the wrong game.
Quote from: willie warrior on March 04, 2018, 08:55:12 AM
A win over DePaul who is the bottom feeder of Beast does not get us in. On the other hand, a loss to DePaul, which we already have accomplished, should flush us right down the crapper.
But the committee has not begun debating the back end of the tournament field. Technically MU is not "out" even if bracketologists have us there.
1-1 will have MU right on the Dayton/NIT cutline. So let's just win two.
Quote from: willie warrior on March 04, 2018, 08:55:12 AM
A win over DePaul who is the bottom feeder of Beast does not get us in. On the other hand, a loss to DePaul, which we already have accomplished, should flush us right down the crapper.
A win over DePaul also does not hurt us. Nor does a loss to Villanova hurt us. So if, like me, you believe Marquette is just inside the bubble, 1-1 will be enough to keep us there barring bid thieves.
Quote from: willie warrior on March 04, 2018, 08:55:12 AM
A win over DePaul who is the bottom feeder of Beast does not get us in. On the other hand, a loss to DePaul, which we already have accomplished, should flush us right down the crapper.
This is not how things works.
Quote from: brewcity77 on March 04, 2018, 09:58:33 AM
A win over DePaul also does not hurt us. Nor does a loss to Villanova hurt us. So if, like me, you believe Marquette is just inside the bubble, 1-1 will be enough to keep us there barring bid thieves.
Exactly. We're toast if we lose to Providence or DePaul in the first game (and a win against either does not guarantee a berth [clearly with DePaul]) - so wouldn't you rather take the win against DePaul knowing that you still have a chance to dance losing to Nova. The reward in beating Providence is just not worth the the risk of losing.
Quote from: rocky_warrior on March 04, 2018, 08:34:41 AM
Losing at DePaul was bad, but I think the 3 straight home losses a month ago was really the warriors problem...if there was a problem this season.
Defense.
Quote from: Windyplayer on March 04, 2018, 10:12:24 AM
Exactly. We're toast if we lose to Providence or DePaul in the first game (and a win against either does not guarantee a berth [clearly with DePaul]) - so wouldn't you rather take the win against DePaul knowing that you still have a chance to dance losing to Nova. The reward in beating Providence is just not worth the the risk of losing.
Doesn't matter now. DePaul it is. Speculating is silly (though it's what we do 83% of the time on Scoop).
We got this!
The home loss to Providence is the real thorn in MU's side right now.
Quote from: MUDish-Hagans Come On Down on March 04, 2018, 10:47:01 AM
The home loss to Providence is the real thorn in MU's side right now.
+1000 I absolutely agree with this...just like last year, losing at home to PC nearly cost them a bid...this year, it actually could.
Quote from: MUDish-Hagans Come On Down on March 04, 2018, 10:47:01 AM
The home loss to Providence is the real thorn in MU's side right now.
Honestly...it's every loss equally. Any one win would have us safely in. Georgia, Providence, Butler, DePaul, St John's, any one and we'd be good.
lots of talk here about us beating DePaul and then what happens next. Beating them is not sure thing! Although it sure as hell should be. DePaul? The dregs of the conference.
If we do beat DeP and then lose to Nova, I like to think there will be no kind of Selection Sunday watching party.
I remember one year that I was covering the Gophers, Clem & Co. invited the media, cheerleaders, alumni, etc ... and then they didn't get chosen. It was humiliating for poor Goldy.
We need two wins I think
This link is a couple years old, but it gives me some hope that even if we go 1-1, we'll still have a good shot at getting an at large bid. Some power 6 teams have gotten bids with 60+ RPIs in the past. Those are the exceptions to the rule, for sure, but at this point, I'll take it as a positive sign for us.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/bracketolgy-ncaa-tournament-rpi-numbers-to-know-through-the-years/ (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/bracketolgy-ncaa-tournament-rpi-numbers-to-know-through-the-years/)
Quote from: willie warrior on March 04, 2018, 08:55:12 AM
A win over DePaul who is the bottom feeder of Beast does not get us in. On the other hand, a loss to DePaul, which we already have accomplished, should flush us right down the crapper.
I'm pretty certain that everybody here understands that a loss to DePaul squashes our tourney bid, but thanks for setting that straight.
Quote from: MU82 on March 04, 2018, 10:44:00 AM
Doesn't matter now. DePaul it is. Speculating is silly (though it's what we do 83% of the time on Scoop).
We got this!
It's not speculation. It's an argument.
Quote from: MU82 on March 04, 2018, 12:42:07 PM
If we do beat DeP and then lose to Nova, I like to think there will be no kind of Selection Sunday watching party.
I remember one year that I was covering the Gophers, Clem & Co. invited the media, cheerleaders, alumni, etc ... and then they didn't get chosen. It was humiliating for poor Goldy.
So you're pretty confident 1-1 isn't good enough?
Jerry Palm was on the Score a few minutes ago. Hanley asked him if we have to win the Beast tournament to get in. While he didn't say we do, he did say a win against DePaul only won't get us in.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 04, 2018, 02:04:58 PM
So you're pretty confident 1-1 isn't good enough?
I'm confident that I don't know. I'm also confident that nobody else would know for certain, either, even those claiming to know.
Just get together as a team in a private place. Have cameras rolling just in case there is good news to react to. If we don't get in, immediately delete the recording.
That's how I'd handle it if I were Wojo. And we often get confused for one another.
Quote from: MU82 on March 05, 2018, 09:19:48 AM
I'm confident that I don't know. I'm also confident that nobody else would know for certain, either, even those claiming to know.
Just get together as a team in a private place. Have cameras rolling just in case there is good news to react to. If we don't get in, immediately delete the recording.
That's how I'd handle it if I were Wojo. And we often get confused for one another.
Fair enough. I agree.
Quote from: Hagan-house 84 on March 05, 2018, 07:10:36 AM
Jerry Palm was on the Score a few minutes ago. Hanley asked him if we have to win the Beast tournament to get in. While he didn't say we do, he did say a win against DePaul only won't get us in.
tbh, this is the same as asking some random dipsh1t off the street if it's enough.