MUScoop

MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: 5DollarPitcher on February 21, 2018, 09:23:27 PM

Title: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: 5DollarPitcher on February 21, 2018, 09:23:27 PM
I think we can!
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: tower912 on February 21, 2018, 09:24:51 PM
The back end of MU's schedule is not as rough.    Get to 10 wins, make the tourney.    Make it your mantra.   
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: mileskishnish72 on February 21, 2018, 10:11:32 PM
I think there's even a ployanna route to 4th.
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: BM1090 on February 21, 2018, 11:52:19 PM
If SHU finishes off PC tomorrow we are 1 game behind 4th. If PC comes back to win then we are in 6th
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: mikekinsellaMVP on February 21, 2018, 11:54:02 PM
Quote from: mileskishnish72 on February 21, 2018, 10:11:32 PM
I think there's even a ployanna route to 4th.

Providence goes 1-2 (w/ loss to SH); finishes 9-9.
Butler loses out; finishes 9-9.
Creighton goes 1-2 (w/ loss to MU); finishes 9-9.
Hall goes 2-2 (wins over Providence, Butler); finishes 9-9.

If Marquette were to finish 2-1 with a win over Creighton on Senior Day, the tiebreaker shakes out as:

3.  MU 5-3 (SH x2, CU x2, PC); head-to-head tiebreaker over Hall
4.  SH 5-3 (BU x2, PC x2, CU)
5.  BU 4-4 (MU x2, PC, CU)
6.  PC 3-5 (MU, CU, BU); tiebreaker over Creighton via Villanova win
7.  CU 3-5 (PC, SH, BU)

That's right -- there's an outlandish possibility where we could finish third, even with an ugly loss in either Chicago or D.C.
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: Galway Eagle on February 21, 2018, 11:58:28 PM
Quote from: mikekinsellaMVP on February 21, 2018, 11:54:02 PM
Providence goes 1-2 (w/ loss to SH); finishes 9-9.
Butler loses out; finishes 9-9.
Creighton goes 1-2 (w/ loss to MU); finishes 9-9.
Hall goes 2-2 (wins over Providence, Butler); finishes 9-9.

If Marquette were to finish 2-1 with a win over Creighton on Senior Day, the tiebreaker shakes out as:

3.  MU 5-3 (SH x2, CU x2, PC); head-to-head tiebreaker over Hall
4.  SH 5-3 (BU x2, PC x2, CU)
5.  BU 4-4 (MU x2, PC, CU)
6.  PC 3-5 (MU, CU, BU); tiebreaker over Creighton via Villanova win
7.  CU 3-5 (PC, SH, BU)

That's right -- there's an outlandish possibility where we could finish third, even with an ugly loss in either Chicago or D.C.

If this happens I will videotape myself eating a carolina reaper and ghost pepper. Then playing the bagpipes
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: wadesworld on February 22, 2018, 12:00:32 AM
Just win Saturday.  The rest will take care of itself.  Where we finish in the BE standings doesn't matter much in terms of our end goal.

Finishing first in the BE?  Big deal.
Making the NCAA Tournament?  Big deal.

Finishing 5th in the BE?  Meh.
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on February 22, 2018, 12:06:37 AM
We are in!
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on February 22, 2018, 12:49:06 AM
Quote from: BagpipingBoxer on February 21, 2018, 11:58:28 PM
If this happens I will videotape myself eating a carolina reaper and ghost pepper. Then playing the bagpipes

We are holding you to this
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: Benny B on February 22, 2018, 01:44:10 AM
Quote from: BagpipingBoxer on February 21, 2018, 11:58:28 PM
If this happens I will videotape myself eating a carolina reaper and ghost pepper. Then playing the bagpipes

What has to happen to get you to post the link to said video on Scoop?
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: Spaniel with a Short Tail on February 22, 2018, 07:33:02 AM
Quote from: Benny B on February 22, 2018, 01:44:10 AM
What has to happen to get you to post the link to said video on Scoop?

Check with friartv.
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: cheebs09 on February 22, 2018, 07:58:04 AM
My rooting interest is what we need for our wins to stay or get into the Q1/Q2 quadrants. 6th place also would be nice to avoid Wednesday for the BET.

Our Q1/Q2 record will have a much bigger impact on Selection Sunday than where we finish in the Big East.
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: warriorchick on February 22, 2018, 08:11:47 AM
(https://media1.giphy.com/media/3o7btPCcdNniyf0ArS/source.gif)

Thanks for doing the math, Mike K.!
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: naginiF on February 22, 2018, 08:18:32 AM
Quote from: BagpipingBoxer on February 21, 2018, 11:58:28 PM
If this happens I will videotape myself eating a carolina reaper and ghost pepper. Then playing the bagpipes
I thought we established that the "If this happens....." protocol was to threaten to give each poster in the thread $100?
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: slack00 on February 22, 2018, 08:22:02 AM
Current T-Rank Probabilities:

@Depaul - 59%
@Georgetown - 55%
vCreighton - 61%

3 - 0: 20%
2 - 1: 43%
1 - 2: 30%
0 - 3:  7%
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on February 22, 2018, 08:24:05 AM
Quote from: wadesworld on February 22, 2018, 12:00:32 AM
Just win Saturday.  The rest will take care of itself.  Where we finish in the BE standings doesn't matter much in terms of our end goal.

Finishing first in the BE?  Big deal.
Making the NCAA Tournament?  Big deal.

Finishing 5th in the BE?  Meh.

I think avoiding playing DePaul, but more specifically SJU (don't think they'll end up with 10 seed) in the garden in the BET is important.
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: Newsdreams on February 22, 2018, 08:45:11 AM
Quote from: naginiF on February 22, 2018, 08:18:32 AM
I thought we established that the "If this happens....." protocol was to threaten to give each poster in the thread $100?
I'm in just in case...
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: Herman Cain on February 23, 2018, 11:38:21 PM
My season long view is that we are going to finish 3rd in the Big East and Make it to the second weekend of the tournament. Still hanging in there on that calll.
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: BrewCity83 on February 25, 2018, 11:35:22 AM
A win yesterday would've put us within a game of 3rd.  Now, VERY unlikely.
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: Marquette4life on February 25, 2018, 11:37:32 AM
Quote from: Herman Cain on February 23, 2018, 11:38:21 PM
My season long view is that we are going to finish 3rd in the Big East and Make it to the second weekend of the tournament. Still hanging in there on that calll.
you realize we would have had to make the tourney to get to the second weekend right?
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on February 25, 2018, 11:53:57 AM
Quote from: BrewCity83 on February 25, 2018, 11:35:22 AM
A win yesterday would've put us within a game of 3rd.  Now, VERY unlikely.

And mathematically impossible...but let's not interrupt Hermie's view of reality, shall we?
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: muguru on February 25, 2018, 11:58:45 AM
I still think 6th is a strong possibility. of course MU has to win their last two, and Seton hall needs to lose their last two, but against Nova and Butler, that is very possible(if not likely).
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: burger on February 25, 2018, 12:17:23 PM
Exposure by the FBI of wrong doing by Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, and Providence.....

Pretty much our path to 5th.....
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: BM1090 on February 25, 2018, 12:26:25 PM
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on February 25, 2018, 11:53:57 AM
And mathematically impossible...but let's not interrupt Hermie's view of reality, shall we?

He posted that prior to yesterday's game
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: GooooMarquette on February 25, 2018, 12:31:04 PM
Quote from: burger on February 25, 2018, 12:17:23 PM
Exposure by the FBI of wrong doing by Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, and Providence.....

Pretty much our path to 5th.....

Might even get us to 3rd or 4th if things go well....
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on February 25, 2018, 12:31:30 PM
Quote from: MUeagle1090 on February 25, 2018, 12:26:25 PM
He posted that prior to yesterday's game

It was mathematically impossible then too.
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: BM1090 on February 25, 2018, 01:01:46 PM
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on February 25, 2018, 12:31:30 PM
It was mathematically impossible then too.

I don't think this is true.

Creighton could have lost and been 8-8. SHU could have lost and been 8-8. PC could have lost to be 8-8. PC plays X, 8-9 with a loss. SHU plays Nova and loses, 8-9. Creighton beats Depaul but then loses to us, 9-9.

Butler loses @ SJU and to SHU. Both finish 9-9. There was a path to 10-8 and alone in 3rd place, unless . There was also a path to a tie for 3rd place and winning the tiebreaker for the 3 seed.
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: Newsdreams on February 26, 2018, 02:24:07 PM
Quote from: MUeagle1090 on February 25, 2018, 01:01:46 PM
I don't think this is true.

Creighton could have lost and been 8-8. SHU could have lost and been 8-8. PC could have lost to be 8-8. PC plays X, 8-9 with a loss. SHU plays Nova and loses, 8-9. Creighton beats Depaul but then loses to us, 9-9.

Butler loses @ SJU and to SHU. Both finish 9-9. There was a path to 10-8 and alone in 3rd place, unless . There was also a path to a tie for 3rd place and winning the tiebreaker for the 3 seed.
Yes
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on February 26, 2018, 02:59:32 PM
Quote from: muguru on February 25, 2018, 11:58:45 AM
I still think 6th is a strong possibility. of course MU has to win their last two, and Seton hall needs to lose their last two, but against Nova and Butler, that is very possible(if not likely).

edit.  this is correct.
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: Newsdreams on February 27, 2018, 10:09:59 PM
Creighton destroyed Depaul to get to 10 wins.
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: BM1090 on February 28, 2018, 12:16:01 AM
Still a path to 5th. Need SHU and PC to lose out.
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: IrwinFletcher on February 28, 2018, 07:56:21 AM
I wonder if the best path to the tourney is actually to finish 7th and play SJU.  If we win that game, that is considered a road game and would be another Q2 win and another road win.  Also means we face Villanova or X again further strengthening our SOS.

Beat CU and SJU and lose to V or X and we will have a decent shot.
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: muguru on February 28, 2018, 09:01:14 AM
Quote from: IrwinFletcher on February 28, 2018, 07:56:21 AM
I wonder if the best path to the tourney is actually to finish 7th and play SJU.  If we win that game, that is considered a road game and would be another Q2 win and another road win.  Also means we face Villanova or X again further strengthening our SOS.

Beat CU and SJU and lose to V or X and we will have a decent shot.

I still think it might be better to get the 6 and play Butler, Creighton or PC and add another quadrant 1 win..I think MU's road/neutral wins are good enough
Title: Re: Realistic Path to 5th in the BE
Post by: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on February 28, 2018, 10:32:54 AM
Quote from: IrwinFletcher on February 28, 2018, 07:56:21 AM
I wonder if the best path to the tourney is actually to finish 7th and play SJU.  If we win that game, that is considered a road game and would be another Q2 win and another road win.  Also means we face Villanova or X again further strengthening our SOS.

Beat CU and SJU and lose to V or X and we will have a decent shot.

From an at large perspective, it is.  Getting the 7 seed, beating SJU and then taking a swing at Nova is better for the numbers (even with a loss to Nova).  But it is definitely a harder road to the AQ. 

If SJU wins one of their last 2 games, we're better off with the 6 seed for at large purposes.  A win over Depaul in the 7/10 game does nothing for us. 

If we get the 6 seed, we'll be playing for a bid in that game against the 3 seed.  But the numbers aren't too kind to us if we lose it. 
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