MU & Butler Project as 1st 2 Teams Out After Value Add Adjustment for Froling and All Other Injuries, Transfers worth 0.5 or more pts.The following table seeds the NCAA March Madness Field based on each team's current rating at
www.kenpom.com adjusted by the
Value Add rating of each player who is returning or lost for the season.
The first number is the current KenPom Rating. If a player who helps or hurts a team by at least 0.50 points is listed in
this blog, then that total is reflected in the second "change" number, and after those two numbers are added together they are multiplied by .70 to estimate how many points each team is better or worse than average. Villanova calculates as 21.46 points better than the average team, which would leave them with a 1-seed.
Marquette and Butler actually calculate as the first two teams out of the tournament with Froling projecting to help the team by 1.21 points to make MU 9.91 points better than the average team in the country.
| Team | KenPom | Change | Pts above ave | Conf | Seed |
|---|
| Villanova | 31.02 | | 21.46 | BE | 1 |
| Michigan St. | 28.63 | | 19.79 | B10 | 1 |
| North Carolina | 22.22 | 5.64 | 19.25 | ACC | 1 |
| Virginia | 27.15 | | 18.76 | ACC | 1 |
| Duke | 26.39 | | 18.22 | ACC | 2 |
| Arizona | 21.43 | 4.61 | 17.98 | P12 | 2 |
| Purdue | 25.71 | | 17.75 | B10 | 2 |
| Kansas | 24.84 | | 17.14 | B12 | 2 |
| Texas A&M | 24.25 | | 16.73 | SEC | 3 |
| West Virginia | 22.56 | | 15.54 | B12 | 3 |
| Clemson | 19.23 | 3.15 | 15.42 | ACC | 3 |
| Wichita St. | 22.38 | | 15.42 | Amer | 3 |
| Cincinnati | 22.3 | | 15.36 | Amer | 4 |
| Texas Tech | 22.29 | | 15.35 | B12 | 4 |
| Gonzaga | 21.71 | | 14.95 | WCC | 4 |
| Miami FL | 21.52 | | 14.81 | ACC | 4 |
| Seton Hall | 20.02 | 1.48 | 14.80 | BE | 5 |
| Oklahoma | 21.19 | | 14.58 | B12 | 5 |
| Kentucky | 21.18 | | 14.58 | SEC | 5 |
| Xavier | 21.08 | | 14.51 | BE | 5 |
| Florida St. | 18.2 | 2.18 | 14.02 | ACC | 6 |
| Saint Mary's | 17.4 | 2.17 | 13.45 | WCC | 6 |
| Baylor | 18.33 | 1.10 | 13.35 | B12 | 6 |
| Arizona St. | 19.25 | | 13.23 | P12 | 6 |
| SMU | 19.14 | | 13.15 | Amer | 7 |
| TCU | 19.14 | | 13.15 | B12 | 7 |
| Notre Dame | 19.08 | | 13.11 | ACC | 7 |
| Arkansas | 19.06 | | 13.09 | SEC | 7 |
| Louisville | 16.82 | 1.98 | 12.91 | ACC | 8 |
| Florida | 16.91 | 1.64 | 12.74 | SEC | 8 |
| Texas | 17.3 | 1.12 | 12.64 | B12 | 8 |
| Tennessee | 18 | | 12.35 | SEC | 8 |
| Nevada | 17.83 | | 12.23 | MWC | 9 |
| Creighton | 17.66 | | 12.11 | BE | 9 |
| USC | 16.28 | 0.94 | 11.80 | P12 | 9 |
| St. Bonaventure | 11.68 | 5.47 | 11.76 | A10 | 9 |
| St. John's | 13.76 | 3.34 | 11.72 | BE | 10 |
| Michigan | 17.04 | | 11.68 | B10 | 10 |
| Maryland | 16.97 | | 11.63 | B10 | 10 |
| Virginia Tech | 16.51 | | 11.31 | ACC | 10 |
| Houston | 15.72 | | 10.75 | Amer | 11 |
| Auburn | 15.02 | | 10.26 | SEC | 11 |
| Penn St. | 14.77 | | 10.09 | B10 | 12-Dayton |
| Alabama | 13.27 | 1.40 | 10.02 | SEC | 12-Dayton |
| Minnesota | 14.61 | | 9.98 | B10 | 12-Dayton |
| Kansas St. | 14.57 | | 9.95 | B12 | 12-Dayton |
| Northern Iowa | 6.97 | 4.91 | 8.06 | MVC | 11 |
| Middle Tennessee | 10.43 | | 7.05 | CUSA | 11 |
| Vermont | 9.07 | | 6.10 | AE | 12 |
| College of Charleston | 4.38 | 4.68 | 6.09 | CAA | 12 |
| Northern Kentucky | 8.42 | | 5.64 | Horz | 13 |
| UT Arlington | 8.23 | | 5.51 | SB | 13 |
| Bucknell | 6.02 | 1.37 | 4.92 | Pat | 13 |
| South Dakota | 7.35 | | 4.90 | Sum | 13 |
| Portland St. | 3.32 | 3.43 | 4.48 | BSky | 14 |
| New Mexico St. | 6.67 | | 4.42 | WAC | 14 |
| East Tennessee St. | 6.54 | | 4.33 | SC | 14 |
| Ohio | 1.35 | 5.17 | 4.32 | MAC | 14 |
| Belmont | 5.62 | | 3.68 | OVC | 15 |
| Stephen F. Austin | 4.25 | | 2.73 | Slnd | 15 |
| Iona | 4.14 | | 2.65 | MAAC | 15 |
| Florida Gulf Coast | 2.3 | 1.73 | 2.57 | ASun | 15 |
| Princeton | 4.02 | | 2.56 | Ivy | 16 |
| UC Santa Barbara | 3.39 | | 2.12 | BW | 16 |
| St. Francis PA | -1.42 | 3.61 | 1.28 | NEC | 16-Dayton |
| UNC Asheville | 2.17 | | 1.27 | BSth | 16-Dayton |
| Texas Southern | -3.84 | | -2.94 | SWAC | 16-Dayton |
| Hampton | -8.5 | | -6.20 | MEAC | 16-Dayton |
| Butler | 14.54 | | 9.93 | BE | 1st 4 out |
| Marquette | 13.3 | 1.21 | 9.91 | BE | 1st 4 out |
| Ohio St. | 14.36 | | 9.80 | B10 | 1st 4 out |
| UCF | 8.32 | 5.57 | 9.48 | Amer | 1st 4 out |
| Missouri | 13.84 | | 9.44 | SEC | Next 4 out |
| Oregon | 13.8 | | 9.41 | P12 | Next 4 out |
| Rhode Island | 13.21 | | 9.00 | A10 | Next 4 out |
| Oklahoma St. | 13.6 | -0.61 | 8.84 | B12 | Next 4 out |
| Syracuse | 12.89 | | 8.77 | ACC | 3rd 4 out |
| Providence | 10.57 | 1.84 | 8.44 | BE | 3rd 4 out |
| San Diego St. | 12.13 | | 8.24 | MWC | 3rd 4 out |
| Georgia | 10.7 | 1.42 | 8.23 | SEC | 3rd 4 out |
Source: MU & Butler Project as 1st 2 Teams Out After Value Add Adjustment for Froling and All Other Injuries, Transfers worth 0.5 or more pts. (http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2017/12/mu-butler-project-as-1st-2-teams-out.html)
Only five Big East teams in at this time...that's a drop down from seven last year. UGA out. That UGA home loss could cost us. Lots of hoops to be played, obviously.
Wojo folding in different defenses lately. That side of the ball will determine MU's fate. Worst in the Big East in the OOC.
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on December 23, 2017, 09:02:19 AM
Only five Big East teams in at this time...that's a drop down from seven last year. UGA out. That UGA home loss could cost us. Lots of hoops to be played, obviously.
Wojo folding in different defenses lately. That side of the ball will determine MU's fate. Worst in the Big East in the OOC.
Just to clarify, MU's
defense is the worst in the big East during OOC, right?
Why is Dayton mentioned after the seeding of the 12th and 16th seeded teams in the tournament?
Quote from: 4everCrean on December 23, 2017, 09:43:00 AM
Just to clarify, MU's defense is the worst in the big East during OOC, right?
Yes, per KPomeroy.
Crap. And I was looking forward to the season.
Won't even bother watching now, since we have no chance.
Quote from: 4everCrean on December 23, 2017, 09:45:13 AM
Why is Dayton mentioned after the seeding of the 12th and 16th seeded teams in the tournament?
I'm guessing he's saying those teams would be in the first four play-in round in Dayton. That's the only thing I can think of.
Is this before or after last night's games (Penn St losing to Rider and Alabama losing to Texas). Georgia also beat Temple
Before. It is based on the numbers through the current www.valueaddbasketball.,com page which in the bottom right lists the Thursday night games that were not yet included when it was last run - so none of the Friday night games but all but a few of Thursday night games - San Diego St win over Gonzaga was not included.
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on December 23, 2017, 09:02:19 AM
Only five Big East teams in at this time...that's a drop down from seven last year. UGA out. That UGA home loss could cost us. Lots of hoops to be played, obviously.
Wojo folding in different defenses lately. That side of the ball will determine MU's fate. Worst in the Big East in the OOC.
Agreed, though our 3-point defense was one of the worst 10 in the country through early December and has improved dramatically from "terrible."
Quote from: 4everCrean on December 23, 2017, 09:45:13 AM
Why is Dayton mentioned after the seeding of the 12th and 16th seeded teams in the tournament?
Just meant those would be the playing games in Dayton as the last 4 teams in and then the worst 4 of the automatic bids.
Quote from: MDMU04 on December 23, 2017, 10:15:44 AM
I'm guessing he's saying those teams would be in the first four play-in round in Dayton. That's the only thing I can think of.
Thanks - sorry I just answered again before seeing you had already answered
Quote from: MU82 on December 23, 2017, 09:54:07 AM
Crap. And I was looking forward to the season.
Won't even bother watching now, since we have no chance.
Yes! I wanted to free you up to do other things selection Sunday rather than watching all 4 brackets without much ever being called - and then having to hear the committee say they thought long and hard about Marquette and Butler :-)
Quote from: auburnmarquette on December 23, 2017, 11:31:06 AM
Yes! I wanted to free you up to do other things selection Sunday rather than watching all 4 brackets without much ever being called - and then having to hear the committee say they thought long and hard about Marquette and Butler :-)
You are a very caring person. Thanks!
I'm now free to cure cancer!
Awesome :-) merry Christmas!
Now that we've had a chance to get a good feel for this roster I feel very comfortable in saying not getting a tourney bid this year with this roster would definitely be underachieving.
nm
Quote from: NickelDimer on December 24, 2017, 08:31:17 AM
Now that we've had a chance to get a good feel for this roster I feel very comfortable in saying not getting a tourney bid this year with this roster would definitely be underachieving.
I don't really understand this. At the start of the year with this roster not many would have said that. We lost a starter due to transfer and now if we don't get a bid it would be underachieving?
Quote from: NickelDimer on December 24, 2017, 08:31:17 AM
Now that we've had a chance to get a good feel for this roster I feel very comfortable in saying not getting a tourney bid this year with this roster would definitely be underachieving.
I would've agreed before Cheatham transferred.
Quote from: MUeagle1090 on December 24, 2017, 10:57:53 PM
I don't really understand this. At the start of the year with this roster not many would have said that. We lost a starter due to transfer and now if we don't get a bid it would be underachieving?
I Concur. At the beginning of the season many posters thought it would be a step back season, and even Kenpom had us as 18-16 wins.
Now that the new faces (and Sacar) are developing, that improvement rate may not be sustainable in playing the BEast schedule. I think underachieving is an unfair statement which diminishes the progress made by these guys. Its as unfair as questioning why us fans did not seeing this coming.
But the bottom line is we're going Dancing and that the name of that Tune.