MUScoop

Pre-season is over.   The Big East awaits.   Is the team better, worse, or approximately what you expected?

As Expected. In the moment I think we could be 10-2 but I went into the season expecting three losses

Georgia would have been nice.
Loved the Wisc beat down.
As Brew stated, getting past VCU, and therefore games vs WSU and LSU, was the biggest win of the non-con schedule.

I expected 9-3 but it's slightly worse than expected.  I thought we would get Michigan in the third round.

The freshmen have stepped up.   Wojo has managed them well.   Haanif leaving hurt.   IMO, if he stays, MU beats UGA.   Sam is developing nicely.    A little too 3 reliant, but MU does have shooters.    I am not sure if MU is going to be able to shoot 3's at the same level in league play.    The defense has improved during the season, but the last few teams have not run a lot of high pick and roll.    Froling is going to contribute during the conference.   It will be nice to have 3 guys with the size to defend Delgado, etc.   
     IMO, MU held serve in the pre-season.   The team moves the ball well, shares it, shoots it.    I worry about the physicality of league play.    Guards are small, Elliott and Cain are so skinny, and every time I see Rowsey or Howard hit the floor, I flinch.     With all things considered, slightly better.   

Bump the game by game prediction thread... might be a few of us right on the money...

9-3 is fine and about what I expected. Let us not forget however that we almost ruined our season against EIU.

On to the gauntlet.  I really believe we're capable of 10+ wins.  On any given day we can beat anyone because we might be the best 3 point shooting team ever.  But when the shots aren't falling, the back-up plans aren't great.  But seeing Theo evolve into a true rim protector is a step in the right direction.

Well, with many Posters, preseason forecast of a step back season I think we're better than that.  And I really liked what I seen with Harry and Theo on the floor at the same time.

We got this.

Quote from: jsglow on December 22, 2017, 08:00:21 AM
9-3 is fine and about what I expected. Let us not forget however that we almost ruined our season against EIU.

On to the gauntlet.  I really believe we're capable of 10+ wins.  On any given day we can beat anyone because we might be the best 3 point shooting team ever.  But when the shots aren't falling, the back-up plans aren't great.  But seeing Theo evolve into a true rim protector is a step in the right direction.

We are not as good a 3 point team as last year or ever

Record is what I thought it would be.   For entertainment value this team is great to watch.  They like to run, shoot the 3, and are starting to play some D.  They will
have trouble against athletic teams that are in the Big East, but can play with any of them if the ball keeps moving on offense and Rowsey and Howard do not play
hero ball.  I like how Theo keeps learning how to play at this level, not sure about Cain or Elliott on the offensive end but add some D.  Froling showed a big jump form
game 1 to game 2.  Will add value to the team.

The biggest surprise is how good Sam Hauser is.  Yesterday was the quietest 29 points and most efficient game any MU player as ever played.  Took 10 shots and scored
29 points, wow.  Can his brother be better than him, not sure about that?  And Bo Ryan did not want him?  Adding Morrow and Hauser next year, it will be intereting playing time for all the bigs.  If Eke is anything, they really will have time issues.  Next 2 years should be special, as the other teams loss there stars, and not sure how
they can replace them.  It will even be hard to replace for Villy.

I was very disappointed when we lost to Georgia but I am cautiously optimistic that we are going to do better than expected in conference play.

Theo is an interior presence like we haven't seen in many years.  He seems to have figured out how to play without fouling as much, and we need his skill set on the defensive end. 

Based on last night, Harry looks like he can contribute and once he gets more time on the court he'll only get better.  The offense had an entirely different feel with him in the game and playing well (granted, it was against American).

The Freshmen can contribute.  there are times when they look like freshmen but by and large they can be relied on for some quality minutes.

Damn, we can shoot the ball.  That ability is going to keep us in most games.

9-3 give and take...Georgia - woulda, shoulda, coulda.    Can't forget EIU.  Good teams are better than us... BUT.... we will get better.

I think hypothetically, we would be 11-1 if playing the same schedule at the end of the season. Yes, beat Purdue...no on Wichita State.

But forget Hypotheticals .. beat X then beat GT then beat the next guy..

The only game that I can look back and say 'I thought we should have had that one' is Georgia.  There were plenty of games that I turned on and wondered how the heck these teams were sticking around.  There were also games that went into overtime and was worried. 

However, we won those games.  I am happy with an ugly win any day.  My biggest goal for this season for Marquette is not to see them lose any of those games against the crappy Beast teams that swing their season.  Some years I look at our Beast record and think how a bad loss against a DePaul or St. Johns kept us from the NCAA tournament.  That one loss to DePaul/St. Johns kept the team under 500 instead of that conference record with 1 win over 500.  I think that makes a huge difference when you have this huge jumble of Beast teams in that 1 game over 500, 500, 1 game under 500 conference record range.

The UGA and EIU games (and Lindenwood) were the stumblers. Maui and Madison were the delighters. In the end, UGA was the only stinker with the team stressed on the seams with Cheatham quitting and Rowsey off the rails.

However, since then, these guys look like a NCAA team. No question, this team is better without Haanif. The freshmen are getting minutes, Sam is moving into the three slot. Harry is active, providing more depth and options on both defense and offense. Theo and Matt can now slip into what they do well. Rowsey has assumed the role Wojo wants him to.

Xavier will be a test as to how good this team can be. Please come out and support the boys. If MU can surprise X after break, we are off to the races.

About as expected, though we'd be sitting real pretty with a better game (and a W) against Georgia.

Oh well.  9-9 should be plenty to have this team safely in the field.

Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on December 22, 2017, 09:09:44 AM
The UGA and EIU games (and Lindenwood) were the stumblers. Maui and Madison were the delighters. In the end, UGA was the only stinker with the team stressed on the seams with Cheatham quitting and Rowsey off the rails.

However, since then, these guys look like a NCAA team. No question, this team is better without Haanif. The freshmen are getting minutes, Sam is moving into the three slot. Harry is active, providing more depth and options on both defense and offense. Theo and Matt can now slip into what they do well. Rowsey has assumed the role Wojo wants him to.

Xavier will be a test as to how good this team can be. Please come out and support the boys. If MU can surprise X after break, we are off to the races.

If we are shooting 60% we might have chance. It's our physicality and athleticism or lack thereof that defeats us.

Quote from: Mr. Sand-Knit on December 22, 2017, 08:41:04 AM
We are not as good a 3 point team as last year or ever

Disagree.  Only Markus' percentage is down and the utilization rate of our big 3 scorers seems to be way up.  For reference, Katin shot 40.3% last year meaning that his Senior year production was roughly comparable to Markus' Sophomore year.  Even though Markus is down from his record breaking performance, I wouldn't argue he's 'worse' because of his utilization and the defense focus he receives.  As to my 'ever' comment, I meant MU ever.  I'm sure the statisticians here can do more work on this as necessary.

I think this was about as expected.  Two players that really got important minutes during these games IMO were Theo and Sacar.

Theo is starting to figure out how to play defense and protect the rim a lot better without fouling.  And if he contributes 2-5 ppg, even better.

Sacar showed a lot defensively, but he also really showed he can get to the rim.  The one thing he was terrible at was finishing once he was there.  Hopefully these minutes he's received along with additional practice time and we'll see him begin to finish at a higher clip.

Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on December 22, 2017, 09:09:44 AM
The UGA and EIU games (and Lindenwood) were the stumblers.

UGA sure.  But they beat EIU and Lindenwood was an exhibition.  Neither were stumbles.

Overall they are where I thought they would be.  Thought they would beat UGA and lose to UW however. 

Losing Haanif IMO hasn't hurt us at all.  (I was wrong about that.)  I like how this team is playing and how they play for each other.  Still worried about defense (but it's getting better) and turnovers.  But love the offense.

we seem to be able to light it up pretty good, but i don't have our first 11-12 game stats from last year.  elliot, cain and john are definitely improving and gaining confidence.  now if we can just slap the floor a little

9-3 is right about what I was thinking, while hoping for 10-2. Actually ... I was hoping for 12-0!

I know folks are frustrated about Georgia and EIU, as I was while watching the games, but look around. Almost every team in the country - even top-10 teams - have had their Georgias and their EIUs already this season. Indeed, several teams that were highly ranked at the time suffered far more embarrassing defeats than our loss to Georgia. I mean, UNC just lost at home to a team that had been 0-25 all-time against ranked teams and had been 0-23 against UNC. It would be like us losing to UWM - but probably worse.

I remain very optimistic about our lads. 9-9 in BE is very doable, and that's a tourney bid for sure. 10 or 11 wins isn't out of the question. (Of course, neither is 7 or 8.)

We are going to be a team with little margin for error in every game, so it will always be "exciting."

I agree about getting off to a nice start. Win our two home games vs. X and GT, and we're gonna have a great year.

But please, folks, let's not climb on the ledge if we don't win those games. It's a long season.

(Yes, I know, asking that of Scoop was beyond dopey. Fire Wojo!)

While 9-3 is around the right numbers for wins and losses expectation .. I voted worse.   

MU's defense was abysmal last year, making it a top priority.    The expectation for at least a mediocre defense was not met.   

Quote from: mu_hilltopper on December 22, 2017, 11:30:09 AM
While 9-3 is around the right numbers for wins and losses expectation .. I voted worse.   

MU's defense was abysmal last year, making it a top priority.    The expectation for at least a mediocre defense was not met.

Topper voting for worse....Eat at Arby's.

I said worse. I expected us to beat Georgia and had everything else correct. I still think we beat Georgia 7/10 in that situation, but it wasn't our day. I'm satisfied with results, largely because we beat VCU (you all know my thoughts there) and didn't take any truly bad losses, but I wanted the matchup with Michigan (though beating LSU is an acceptable substitute) and felt 10 wins was realistic.

Quote from: brewcity77 on December 22, 2017, 05:10:32 PM
I said worse. I expected us to beat Georgia and had everything else correct. I still think we beat Georgia 7/10 in that situation, but it wasn't our day. I'm satisfied with results, largely because we beat VCU (you all know my thoughts there) and didn't take any truly bad losses, but I wanted the matchup with Michigan (though beating LSU is an acceptable substitute) and felt 10 wins was realistic.

According to RPI Wizard, after beating VCU but losing to Georgia, our projected RPI is 70.3, with a projected SOS of 29.

Had we beat Georgia, lost to VCU, then won the two games against Michigan and California in the consolation bracket in Maui, our projected RPI would be 60, with an SOS of 36.

I think this shows that you simply can't make up RPI ground lost by losing home games with a marginally more difficult SOS. Losing home games to Georgia and Purdue killed our RPI, and beating VCU in order to have our asses handed to us by Wichita State didn't make up for it. 

At the end of the year, putting all the debate about beating VCU aside, it turns out that the home game against Georgia will be the most important game of the season for us. 

I am happy with the 9-3 non-conference season, but I do not think we beat anyone that will earn an at-large bid in NCAA tournament.

Quote from: The Equalizer on December 23, 2017, 11:52:49 AMHad we beat Georgia, lost to VCU, then won the two games against Michigan and California in the consolation bracket in Maui, our projected RPI would be 60, with an SOS of 36.

This is a logical fallacy. The difference of who we played in Maui was not contingent on the Georgia outcome like it was the VCU outcome. Georgia must be treated as independent. Also, there's no guarantee we get two wins after the VCU loss. Every reasonable metric would have us as an underdog to Michigan, so that's two fallacious assumptions in one post.

The biggest game of the season is Wednesday, 12/27/17 against Xavier.

If you go with the exact percentages per RPI Wizard the rest of the way, we would have a 7-11 conference record and finish the regular season 16-14 (11-7). We would have an RPI of 73 and SOS of 30.

If you assume a loss to VCU, the logical follow-through would be a win over California and a loss to Michigan (we are rated lower in kenpom, Sagarin, RPI, Massey, etc). That would give us a record of 15-15 (11-7) with an RPI of 89 and SOS of 37.

So, the VCU win nets us an RPI improvement of 16 spots and SOS boost of 7 spots.

If you simply turn the Georgia loss into a win, we finish 17-13 (11-7) with an RPI of 61 and SOS of 28. Winning the Georgia game would net us an RPI improvement of 12 spots and SOS boost of 2 spots (don't ask me how the calculation figured that us beating Georgia, and thus worsening their record despite no other changes would give us a better SOS).

Regardless, we have to remember that while the VCU and subsequent Maui games have a direct relation to each other, the Georgia game is completely independent. We also have to remember that if we are solely using the predictors as accurate (which we must assume to normalize the conference record) then we must also assume a loss to Michigan and a 1-2 record in Maui.

Listen, no one is saying winning at home isn't important. All things being equal, I would rather go 9-9 in conference play with 9 wins at home and 9 losses on the road than any other permutation of 9-9. You benefit more from winning the games at home and losing the games on the road than you do losing at home and winning on the road. Road wins are valuable, but home wins are more important.

But that's all irrelevant now. We lost to Georgia. It sucks, but it has no bearing on any other game and it has less impact than the expected results had we lost to VCU as opposed the the real results we earned from beating VCU.

Quote from: wadesworld on December 23, 2017, 03:03:26 PM
The biggest game of the season is Wednesday, 12/27/17 against Xavier.

Never ever Tired of hearing This.

Quote from: wadesworld on December 23, 2017, 03:03:26 PM
The biggest game of the season is Wednesday, 12/27/17 against Xavier.

Says the guy who in another thread just claimed the Panthers were inferior to the Packers because of GB's past glories. Never mind that the Panthers eliminated the Packers from the playoffs 6 days ago!

8-)

Quote from: wadesworld on December 23, 2017, 03:03:26 PM
The biggest game of the season is Wednesday, 12/27/17 against Xavier.

Yep, we gotta score more points than them.

Quote from: MU82 on December 23, 2017, 04:20:15 PM
Says the guy who in another thread just claimed the Panthers were inferior to the Packers because of GB's past glories. Never mind that the Panthers eliminated the Packers from the playoffs 6 days ago!

8-)

Congrats! Your team was able to have a better season than a team who lost the best player in football for half the season!

I understand your excitement in needing to bring the NFL thread over to MU basketball. It is very, very rare the Panthers have a better season than the Packers. Congrats again!

Quote from: wadesworld on December 23, 2017, 06:58:35 PM
Congrats! Your team was able to have a better season than a team who lost the best player in football for half the season!

I understand your excitement in needing to bring the NFL thread over to MU basketball. It is very, very rare the Panthers have a better season than the Packers. Congrats again!

Very rare. Only 2 out of the last 3 years.

I accept your congratulations.

And I agree about X being the biggest game!

(He said, smoothly moving back to the topic.)

Quote from: MU82 on December 23, 2017, 11:17:37 PM
Very rare. Only 2 out of the last 3 years.

I accept your congratulations.

And I agree about X being the biggest game!

(He said, smoothly moving back to the topic.)

Woo hoo!  2 out of the last 3 years!  Congrats!  The Panthers will have a season that lasts longer than the Packers for a whopping 4th time in their franchise history!  Super exciting!

Again, let me know the next time the Panthers win something, because the next time will be the first time!

Quote from: wadesworld on December 23, 2017, 11:35:43 PM
Woo hoo!  2 out of the last 3 years!  Congrats!  The Panthers will have a season that lasts longer than the Packers for a whopping 4th time in their franchise history!  Super exciting!

Again, let me know the next time the Panthers win something, because the next time will be the first time!

A great person has said (repeatedly) that the next game is all that matters!

Quote from: MU82 on December 24, 2017, 12:00:35 AM
A great person has said (repeatedly) that the next game is all that matters!

Who's that?