Because why not? Marquette next 4 out. Wisconsin first 4 out. 6 Big East teams getting bids.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Not listed:
Georgetown
DePaul
SJU
Interesting. I can't tell if this is based on what team's have done or how good he thinks teams really are. Cause if it's based on what team's have done, Arizona shouldn't be in with three wins against low majors and 3 losses, only 1 of which is against a for sure tournament team. But if it's based on where he thinks team's really are, I can't imagine Washington State or Missouri (minus Porter) being anywhere near the tournament by the end of the season.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on November 30, 2017, 11:07:19 AM
Interesting. I can't tell if this is based on what team's have done or how good he thinks teams really are. Cause if it's based on what team's have done, Arizona shouldn't be in with three wins against low majors and 3 losses, only 1 of which is against a for sure tournament team. But if it's based on where he thinks team's really are, I can't imagine Washington State or Missouri (minus Porter) being anywhere near the tournament by the end of the season.
This early in the season? Probably a little bit of both. Not enough data for people who started on the outside looking in to bump some teams that started on the inside and are trending out. So what have you done for me lately gets a little seasoning from what will you do for me in the next few weeks.
If it was based on what teams have done Wisconsin wouldn't be ahead of us.
Quote from: jficke13 on November 30, 2017, 11:11:25 AM
This early in the season? Probably a little bit of both. Not enough data for people who started on the outside looking in to bump some teams that started on the inside and are trending out. So what have you done for me lately gets a little seasoning from what will you do for me in the next few weeks.
Exactly. Some love for the early season darlings. But no point in removing a team like Arizona from the fray as they'll obviously be there are seasons end.
All in all, seems pretty fair on Marquette at the moment. Go 3-0 in the next 10 days and we'll be comfortably in the field at the moment.
If MU goes 3-0 during the next week, I am confident that a week from now, in the equally meaningless bracketology, MU will be in.
Quote from: MuMark on November 30, 2017, 11:27:53 AM
If it was based on what teams have done Wisconsin wouldn't be ahead of us.
Losses to then 22 Baylor, 15 xavier, 23 UCLA, 18 @UVA...sure they have more losses, but its not like they are losing to garbage teams.
And thats why as most have pointed, they are looking at what has been done, and what is predicted for the rest of the season.
Pretty sure that his is based on absolutely nothing. Most of his bracketologies this year look as if an 8 year old with no knowledge of basketball put them together.
Georgetown is 5-0, hard to believe they aren't a 2-seed.
Next 3 games are huge for our tourney hopes
Almost gotta go 2/3, preferably without dropping one at home
Georgia scares me with thier length (they start 6'4" / 6'4" / 6'8" / 6'8" / 6'8") and they have a full week to prep for us. Then we have a quick turnaround to a good Vermont team that took UK to the wire in Lexington. And we'll have to shoot lights out to beat UW at their place. Really too bad we won't have Froling for any of these games.
The way I see it, go 3/3 (20% chance) and an 8-10 BEast record likely gets us in the tourney (and could potentially have us ranked by end of 2017).
Go 2/3 (35% chance), and a 9-9 BEast record likely gets us in (win a conf tourney game and we're a lock)
Go 1/3 (30% chance), and we'll need 10-8 BEast record with a signature road win and no bad home losses (Georgetown/DePaul)
Go 0/3 (15% chance), and we'll need to go 12-6 in conference with no bad home losses
Hope M2N, Sam, and Drewski are all locked in and "on" at the same time over the next 10 days!
Sorry for being dense, but what does M2N stand for?
What this tells me is beating LSU means nothing.
Quote from: ZiggysFryBoy on November 30, 2017, 12:39:11 PM
Sorry for being dense, but what does M2N stand for?
Ask your buddy, JB. (Markus 2 NBA)
Quote from: The Deane Team on November 30, 2017, 11:52:53 AM
Georgetown is 5-0, hard to believe they aren't a 2-seed.
Basically Lunardi's logic
Why is Michigan in ahead of us? They're best win was over VCU by 8. We won by 11. And we beat LSU while Michigan lost to LSU. Michigan lost to UNC by 15, which compares to our loss to Wichita St. Huh?
This bracketology no matta.
Quote from: Lazar's Headband on November 30, 2017, 01:26:33 PM
Why is Michigan in ahead of us? They're best win was over VCU by 8. We won by 11. And we beat LSU while Michigan lost to LSU. Michigan lost to UNC by 15, which compares to our loss to Wichita St. Huh?
This bracketology no matta.
Agreed. That one struck me as odd as well.
Quote from: Ellenson Family Reunion on November 30, 2017, 12:07:19 PM
Next 3 games are huge for our tourney hopes
The way I see it, go 3/3 (20% chance) and an 8-10 BEast record likely gets us in the tourney (and could potentially have us ranked by end of 2017).
Go 2/3 (35% chance), and a 9-9 BEast record likely gets us in (win a conf tourney game and we're a lock)
Go 1/3 (30% chance), and we'll need 10-8 BEast record with a signature road win and no bad home losses (Georgetown/DePaul)
Go 0/3 (15% chance), and we'll need to go 12-6 in conference with no bad home losses
I agree with this analysis for the most part, but not 100% sure 9-9 gets it done with a 9-3 non-conference record. 18-12 going into the BE tournament. We'd be squarely on the bubble. But this is probably the most realistic result.
Finishing out the non-con with 5 more wins is going to give us so much more room for error. Its totally possible, but we're going to need to figure out how to play some D over the next 40 hours.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on November 30, 2017, 02:16:36 PM
I agree with this analysis for the most part, but not 100% sure 9-9 gets it done with a 9-3 non-conference record. 18-12 going into the BE tournament. We'd be squarely on the bubble. But this is probably the most realistic result.
Finishing out the non-con with 5 more wins is going to give us so much more room for error. Its totally possible, but we're going to need to figure out how to play some D over the next 40 hours.
I think it would if our non con sos continued to be the highest of all high majors. If it fell for some reason then it'd be bubblelicious
Quote from: BagpipingBoxer on November 30, 2017, 02:58:16 PM
I think it would if our non con sos continued to be the highest of all high majors. If it fell for some reason then it'd be bubblelicious
What source has our NC SOS that high?
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on November 30, 2017, 03:13:53 PM
What source has our NC SOS that high?
RPI Forecast projects MU to have a SOS of 23. 18-12 would give MU a projected RPI of 50.7, if the model holds.
18-12 with BET 0-1,1-1, or 2-1 I don't think we get in.
I know who we beat and if we're 9-9 vs 10-8 in the BE makes a difference.
But in general 20-13 doesn't smell good.
So if we're 9-3 NC and 10-8 BE then 1-1 BET, I would feel good about it.
Quote from: MUBigDance on November 30, 2017, 03:29:44 PM
18-12 with BET 0-1,1-1, or 2-1 I don't think we get in.
I know who we beat and if we're 9-9 vs 10-8 in the BE makes a difference.
But in general 20-13 doesn't smell good.
So if we're 9-3 NC and 10-8 BE then 1-1 BET, I would feel good about it.
20 wins will be plenty this season....19 would probably work too. 10 Big East wins and we're stone cold locks unless we drop 3/5 renaming non-con games.
9-3 non con and 10-8 BE and we'll be somewhere in the 7-9 seed range, comfortably in...IMO.
Quote from: Lazar's Headband on November 30, 2017, 03:23:25 PM
RPI Forecast projects MU to have a SOS of 23. 18-12 would give MU a projected RPI of 50.7, if the model holds.
yeah...thats what I was seeing. His "highest SOS of all high majors" comment had me wondering where he saw that info.
19 wins would be plenty enough. 19-11 going into the BET puts us at a RPI in the 30s according to rpiforecast.
19 would make us a lock, but thanks to beating VCU I do think 18 will be enough to get us in. Our SOS and RPI would be adequate for a First Four game. Likely need a 9-9 Big East record regardless. I don't think we end up in if we have a losing conference record unless we have 20+ overall wins (which means at least 2 in NYC).
Quote from: brewcity77 on November 30, 2017, 04:17:01 PM
19 would make us a lock, but thanks to beating VCU I do think 18 will be enough to get us in. Our SOS and RPI would be adequate for a First Four game. Likely need a 9-9 Big East record regardless. I don't think we end up in if we have a losing conference record unless we have 20+ overall wins (which means at least 2 in NYC).
Ehh...if we win out in non-con, and go 8-10 in BE play, I think we'd be in decent shape to get in with a BET win. But yeah...definitely not going to feel good going into SS.
Quote from: Ellenson Family Reunion on November 30, 2017, 12:07:19 PM
Next 3 games are huge for our tourney hopes
Almost gotta go 2/3, preferably without dropping one at home
Georgia scares me with thier length (they start 6'4" / 6'4" / 6'8" / 6'8" / 6'8") and they have a full week to prep for us. Then we have a quick turnaround to a good Vermont team that took UK to the wire in Lexington. And we'll have to shoot lights out to beat UW at their place. Really too bad we won't have Froling for any of these games.
The way I see it, go 3/3 (20% chance) and an 8-10 BEast record likely gets us in the tourney (and could potentially have us ranked by end of 2017).
Go 2/3 (35% chance), and a 9-9 BEast record likely gets us in (win a conf tourney game and we're a lock)
Go 1/3 (30% chance), and we'll need 10-8 BEast record with a signature road win and no bad home losses (Georgetown/DePaul)
Go 0/3 (15% chance), and we'll need to go 12-6 in conference with no bad home losses
Hope M2N, Sam, and Drewski are all locked in and "on" at the same time over the next 10 days!
3 amigos 2.0 will go off in all three causing Mattis to take notice of the balogna-dropping capability, who in turn will relay to POTUS, who will in turn seek their services in operations abroad, and in a crazy twist of fate the college basketball players will seek gratitude from POTUS for their intervention.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on November 30, 2017, 04:20:33 PM
Ehh...if we win out in non-con, and go 8-10 in BE play, I think we'd be in decent shape to get in with a BET win. But yeah...definitely not going to feel good going into SS.
This scenario: 10-2 non con, 8-10 BE gives us an 18-12 record (RPI: 48; SOS:23) heading into BET. I think with those computer numbers, we'd still be very much alive.
That assumes we lose all BE road games except Depaul and Georgetown. Win all BE home games except Nova and X. Obviously we'll likely steal a road game or two and drop a home game or two, but that is the calculus I ran.
Using RPI Wizard, I looked at the 13 games they rated as us most likely to win to get us to 18 wins: Georgia, Vermont, NIU, American, Georgetown, @Butler, DePaul, Butler, Providence, St. John's, @DePaul, @Georgetown, Creighton.
That would give us numbers of 18-12 (9-9), RPI 49, SOS 24. That looks like a tournament resume to me.
It should be noted however, that RPI Wizard currently gives us less than 50% chance of winning the following: @Butler (41%), Providence (48%), @Georgetown (43%), and Creighton (40%). If it's right, than our numbers are: 14-16 (5-13), RPI 98, SOS 25. That's not getting into any tournament and would likely cause Hiroshima.
Lucky for us, games are played on the court! What do those eggheads at RPI Wizard know?
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on November 30, 2017, 03:39:55 PM
yeah...thats what I was seeing. His "highest SOS of all high majors" comment had me wondering where he saw that info.
http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=54887.0
Quote from: The Lens on November 30, 2017, 12:41:31 PM
What this tells me is beating LSU means nothing.
We beat them two years ago, when they arguably had the best player in the country and we did not even get an NIT bid. So beating LSU may not mean much.
Quote from: BagpipingBoxer on November 30, 2017, 04:35:58 PM
http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=54887.0
Ah...dated #s.
Quote from: Windyplayer on November 30, 2017, 04:21:14 PM
3 amigos 2.0 will go off in all three causing Mattis to take notice of the balogna-dropping capability, who in turn will relay to POTUS, who will in turn seek their services in operations abroad, and in a crazy twist of fate the college basketball players will seek gratitude from POTUS for their intervention.
I thought this was absurd at first but upon re-reading I'm pretty convinced it's gonna happen.
Quote from: bilsu on November 30, 2017, 05:12:02 PM
We beat them two years ago, when they arguably had the best player in the country and we did not even get an NIT bid. So beating LSU may not mean much.
It's almost like teams change year to year. Your theory holds about as much water as us saying we beat them and Shaq went there when they were unreal so it's a top notch win
Quote from: BagpipingBoxer on November 30, 2017, 05:21:06 PM
It's almost like teams change year to year. Your theory holds about as much water as us saying we beat them and Shaq went there when they were unreal so it's a top notch win
Yep. There was a time when CCNY would have been a quality win....
Quote from: Windyplayer on November 30, 2017, 04:21:14 PM
3 amigos 2.0 will go off in all three
Ok, I know the post was in jest, but there will be at least one game this year where all 3 are on fire, and I pity that opponent. I'm looking forward to that game!
Quote from: rocky_warrior on November 30, 2017, 07:25:11 PM
Ok, I know the post was in jest, but there will be at least one game this year where all 3 are on fire, and I pity that opponent. I'm looking forward to that game!
Ditto!