Let's talk Seton Hall. I have not been watching but they have won their last 4 and 7 of their last 9. One of those losses was the Wildcats. Tough first round matchup. When we split with them it was a different MU team. My guess based on their recent run is that it is a different Seton Hall team too. How do we match up?
3x
Far from a CBB expert but i see them much like us, they may be playing their best ball of the year off of the Butler win, but also like us they have a couple of head scratchers (hello St. Johns). However, they are 'like us' only in results and momentum not in makeup - they are old school BigEast brawn. Couple of points:
- in another thread someone posted this link http://www.bigeast.com/custompages/sports/m-baskbl/2016-2017/confonly.htm (http://www.bigeast.com/custompages/sports/m-baskbl/2016-2017/confonly.htm). Delgado's rebound numbers are insane - over 2X the raw number of rebounds of the #2 in the BEast. Keeping him in the low double:double neighborhood i.e. 12-10, would be big. Bagging on Fish or MH for not keeping him in check is being overly critical
- Matt V tweeted that Sanogo may be out due to ankle injury. I'm not real knowledgeable on SH's bench but, though he doesn't fill the stat sheet, he is a big body with 20+ mpg. so a change in personnel at a minimum.
IMHO - if we can keep the spacing and move the ball we win. if they impose their physicality on us, they win. One of us will get to an early 8 point lead, whichever coach makes the right adjustments from there wins the game.
Agreed. Seaton Hall is a much different team than Seton Hall.
Should be a good game.
Compete on the boards/limit second chance opportunities and we win.
Quote from: naginiF on March 06, 2017, 08:32:41 PM
Far from a CBB expert but i see them much like us, they may be playing their best ball of the year off of the Butler win, but also like us they have a couple of head scratchers (hello St. Johns). However, they are 'like us' only in results and momentum not in makeup - they are old school BigEast brawn. Couple of points:
- in another thread someone posted this link http://www.bigeast.com/custompages/sports/m-baskbl/2016-2017/confonly.htm (http://www.bigeast.com/custompages/sports/m-baskbl/2016-2017/confonly.htm). Delgado's rebound numbers are insane - over 2X the raw number of rebounds of the #2 in the BEast. Keeping him in the low double:double neighborhood i.e. 12-10, would be big. Bagging on Fish or MH for not keeping him in check is being overly critical
- Matt V tweeted that Sanogo may be out due to ankle injury. I'm not real knowledgeable on SH's bench but, though he doesn't fill the stat sheet, he is a big body with 20+ mpg. so a change in personnel at a minimum.
IMHO - if we can keep the spacing and move the ball we win. if they impose their physicality on us, they win. One of us will get to an early 8 point lead, whichever coach makes the right adjustments from there wins the game.
Seton Hall has a very short bench. Sanogo is their best defender. That would be huge news.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on March 06, 2017, 09:10:24 PM
Seton Hall has a very short bench. Sanogo is their best defender. That would be huge news.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/838810737627783168 (https://twitter.com/i/web/status/838810737627783168)
I should've linked Matt's twitter - my bad.
I like our chances.
Quote from: wadesworld on March 06, 2017, 08:36:10 PM
Compete on the boards/limit second chance opportunities and we win.
True. But an easier path to victory would be to simply score at least one more point than the other team, no?
Sanogo's absence would be helpful for MU. Seton Hall is one of those teams whose physicality gives MU problems. MU is going to have to compete defensively and rain 3's. Like most nights.
Stop the pick and roll, we win.
We need to shoot well. We will not win the game, if we are throwing up klunkers. What concerns me is that I believe we are 0-3 in the Garden this year. I think that is where we played Michigan and Pitt.
Need to boxout after every shot. Will be a tough game
Quote from: bilsu on March 07, 2017, 06:48:59 AM
We need to shoot well. We will not win the game, if we are throwing up klunkers.
Mind-blowing analysis.
Flop Grayson Allen style and get Delgado to foul out in the first half. That should do it...
Wait, the "Seaton Hall" thing wasn't on purpose? Oh my.
Didn't realize that Jevon Thomas transferred from the hall. Without Ish, that leaves them with a 6 man rotation. Nzei is the backup for all 5 starters. Run em up and down the court and do whatever you can to draw contact on Delgado.
Carrington gets all the hype but Rodriguez is actually the better wing. Stop him or Delgado and you win. If both go off, you're in trouble.
Someone on twitter pointed out that this is a Title Belt match-up. We won it earlier this year vs Creighton and gave it up a week later.
goo.gl/hTISK6 (http://goo.gl/hTISK6)
Hall has mastered the ability to look amazing for five minutes, average for 32 1/2 minutes leading to a two possession game in the final 90 seconds only to have the opposing team miss shots and get fouled themselves every time down the court on offense. It's been a dumpster fire end to the season for a dumpster fire program.
The way MU is running offense right now there is every bit of expectation they can bomb the Hall out of MSG.
Need this game if we want to play buzz in the NCAAs
So if we know Sanogo is a no-go, we are good to go.
Quote from: Golden Avalanche on March 07, 2017, 10:37:36 AM
Hall has mastered the ability to look amazing for five minutes, average for 32 1/2 minutes leading to a two possession game in the final 90 seconds only to have the opposing team miss shots and get fouled themselves every time down the court on offense. It's been a dumpster fire end to the season for a dumpster fire program.
The way MU is running offense right now there is every bit of expectation they can bomb the Hall out of MSG.
If winning 4 in a row and 7/9 is categorized as a dumpster fire, where do I sign up? Don't let your hatred for a program cloud your vision of what is a pretty solid team.
Quote from: GoldenEagles32 on March 07, 2017, 10:53:58 AM
Need this game if we want to play buzz in the NCAAs
This game has no meaning whatsoever for an NCAA Tournament run. In fact, losing it might help more than winning the game would.
Quote from: wadesworld on March 07, 2017, 11:01:46 AM
This game has no meaning whatsoever for an NCAA Tournament run. In fact, losing it might help more than winning the game would.
if we lose we would probably be an 11 seed right?
Quote from: GoldenEagles32 on March 07, 2017, 11:02:29 AM
if we lose we would probably be an 11 seed right?
Maybe. Maybe a 10. Maybe an 8 or 9. I think we're going to be surprised by our seed, and I honestly think there are at least a dozen teams between us and the bubble.
Quote from: Golden Avalanche on March 07, 2017, 10:37:36 AM
Hall has mastered the ability to look amazing for five minutes, average for 32 1/2 minutes leading to a two possession game in the final 90 seconds only to have the opposing team miss shots and get fouled themselves every time down the court on offense. It's been a dumpster fire end to the season for a dumpster fire program.
The way MU is running offense right now there is every bit of expectation they can bomb the Hall out of MSG.
They won 4 games in a row to probably lock up a bid... I admit I haven't paid a ton of attention to them this year outside of the 2 times we played them, but dumpster fire end to the season? Not sure I see it.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 07, 2017, 11:18:34 AM
Maybe. Maybe a 10. Maybe an 8 or 9. I think we're going to be surprised by our seed, and I honestly think there are at least a dozen teams between us and the bubble.
You never know what those 12 teams could do between now and sunday though
What intrigues me most about this matchup is that while in many ways they are a bad matchup for us (size up front, tough rebounders, good at getting to the line), we are also a bad matchup for them (marginal 3-point defenders, foul too much, poor shot blockers, don't force turnovers).
My initial thought is that tempo would dictate a game like that, but both teams like to play the same way in terms of offensive and defensive matchups. Marquette likes to run and get shots early in the clock, SHU likes to limit time of possession on offense. On defense, they take more time and our defense tries to harass teams into long possessions.
Honestly, it's just a great matchup. My guess is we win simply because we are a better shot-making team. In two previous games, it came down to big rebounds, but we were generally in control the last 5 minutes and the Pirates escaped, once with a win and once with overtime. This time I think we salt it away in regulation.
Quote from: Bocephys on March 07, 2017, 10:27:50 AM
Someone on twitter pointed out that this is a Title Belt match-up. We won it earlier this year vs Creighton and gave it up a week later.
goo.gl/hTISK6 (http://goo.gl/hTISK6)
Go figure... MU actually
defended the belt against the #1 team. I'd venture to say that hasn't happened much.
Quote from: Bocephys on March 07, 2017, 10:27:50 AM
Someone on twitter pointed out that this is a Title Belt match-up. We won it earlier this year vs Creighton and gave it up a week later.
goo.gl/hTISK6 (http://goo.gl/hTISK6)
Very cool idea. Do you own that document? It'd be cool to get a little more in depth in terms of seeing which conference has owned it the most, how many days a team owned it before giving it up, etc.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 07, 2017, 10:59:01 AM
If winning 4 in a row and 7/9 is categorized as a dumpster fire, where do I sign up? Don't let your hatred for a program cloud your vision of what is a pretty solid team.
My vision is clear.
Willard averages seven conference wins a season at Seton Hall.
He hasn't played a post-season game in four of seven seasons in South Orange (assuming their bid this year).
He loses, on average, two players a season to "mysterious" circumstances.
He openly allowed his starting backcourt from two seasons ago to be harassed by teammates (which resulted in zero discipline).
He quietly allowed one of those backcourt players to be robbed by two people on the "pretty solid team" you describe above (which resulted in zero discipline).
It was a smoke and mirrors finish for a program that excels in flaming small spaces. I live in New Jersey. I know the Hall program from the inside. Everything they do is a dumpster fire. But I wouldn't expect anyone in the Upper Midwest to know what's below the surface of wins/losses so you're only partially at fault for being misguided.
Quote from: g0lden3agle on March 07, 2017, 12:37:52 PM
Very cool idea. Do you own that document? It'd be cool to get a little more in depth in terms of seeing which conference has owned it the most, how many days a team owned it before giving it up, etc.
I do not own this, I saw it linked from someone replying to Paint Touches on twitter. I am only a consumer in this world, I add no value.
EDIT: I'm helping! http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=40365 (http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=40365)
Quote from: Golden Avalanche on March 07, 2017, 01:10:06 PM
My vision is clear.
Willard averages seven conference wins a season at Seton Hall.
He hasn't played a post-season game in four of seven seasons in South Orange (assuming their bid this year).
He loses, on average, two players a season to "mysterious" circumstances.
He openly allowed his starting backcourt from two seasons ago to be harassed by teammates (which resulted in zero discipline).
He quietly allowed one of those backcourt players to be robbed by two people on the "pretty solid team" you describe above (which resulted in zero discipline).
It was a smoke and mirrors finish for a program that excels in flaming small spaces. I live in New Jersey. I know the Hall program from the inside. Everything they do is a dumpster fire. But I wouldn't expect anyone in the Upper Midwest to know what's below the surface of wins/losses so you're only partially at fault for being misguided.
(http://24.media.tumblr.com/2546314ffdc7516e5d3dea9cb3c1f9e0/tumblr_n1zv60co9J1qedb29o1_500.gif)
Quote from: Golden Avalanche on March 07, 2017, 01:10:06 PM
My vision is clear.
Willard averages seven conference wins a season at Seton Hall.
He hasn't played a post-season game in four of seven seasons in South Orange (assuming their bid this year).
He loses, on average, two players a season to "mysterious" circumstances.
He openly allowed his starting backcourt from two seasons ago to be harassed by teammates (which resulted in zero discipline).
He quietly allowed one of those backcourt players to be robbed by two people on the "pretty solid team" you describe above (which resulted in zero discipline).
It was a smoke and mirrors finish for a program that excels in flaming small spaces. I live in New Jersey. I know the Hall program from the inside. Everything they do is a dumpster fire. But I wouldn't expect anyone in the Upper Midwest to know what's below the surface of wins/losses so you're only partially at fault for being misguided.
Maybe true, but what does this have to do with their next game?
Quote from: GoldenEagles32 on March 07, 2017, 11:56:12 AM
You never know what those 12 teams could do between now and sunday though
Conference tournament games aren't as valued by the committee as regular season games. Mostly they are used for tiebreakers in seeding.
Fans underestimate the difficulty of moving up and down the bubble. Single game results don't move the needle unless they extraordinary results like beating Nova or losing to Depaul.
Bracket Matrix has 10 teams behind us before the cut off. 1 of those is Illinois State. They literally can do nothing to help themselves moving forward. Another is MTSU. Either they get an autobid or they beat some crap teams and lose to 1 crap team. Three of the teams behind us are all in the Big East. They can't all have good trips to NYC.
So really, there's not much the teams behind us can do.
I'm impressed with all the Knowledgeable Nerds on this thread. Thank you.
I think we win take the lead early (somewhere during the first 5 minutes), never give it up and win by 8 to 12.
Against Xavier, from the time we broke a 10-10 lead at the 14-minute mark of the first half, we never trailed. We led by 12 at half, and Xavier never got closer than 8 the entire rest of the way. In other words, X was never really in the game.
A similar story against Creighton. We led for all but 1 minute and 26 seconds of the game. Up 10 at half. The Bluejays got within 5, but no closer.
We're a much better team than when we first played Seton Hall. We finished the regular season outscoring opponents 431-372 (86.2 to 74.4 ppg) in our last 5 games. That included four victories against good teams with an average winning margin of 16 points.
Quote from: Marcus92 on March 07, 2017, 04:55:26 PM
I think we win take the lead early (somewhere during the first 5 minutes), never give it up and win by 8 to 12.
Against Xavier, from the time we broke a 10-10 lead at the 14-minute mark of the first half, we never trailed. We led by 12 at half, and Xavier never got closer than 8 the entire rest of the way. In other words, X was never really in the game.
A similar story against Creighton. We led for all but 1 minute and 26 seconds of the game. Up 10 at half. The Bluejays got within 5, but no closer.
We're a much better team than when we first played Seton Hall. We finished the regular season outscoring opponents 431-372 (86.2 to 74.4 ppg) in our last 5 games. That included four victories against good teams with an average winning margin of 16 points.
....and the Hall are a much better team when they played us last, winning 5 of their last 6 games. Yes we are better, but so are they.
Quote from: muwarrior69 on March 07, 2017, 05:04:53 PM
....and the Hall are a much better team when they played us last, winning 5 of their last 6 games. Yes we are better, but so are they.
Maybe. I think we have improved more than they have. Look at their last 6 games a little closer:
6 point win vs. CREI at home (we won by 8)
22 point loss vs. NOVA at home (we won by 2)
7 point win vs. X at home (we won by 22)
3 point win vs. DEP on the road (we won by 13)
3 point win vs. GTWN at home (we won by 10)
6 point win vs. BUT on the road (we lost by 8)
Honestly, the only game where I think they were impressive was @Butler. The rest were underwhelming results against middle of the conference competition. Seems kind of like Creighton post Mo Watson honestly.
So will the Hall team that beat Butler on the road show up? Or will the Hall team that barely escaped Depaul and Georgetown show up?
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on March 07, 2017, 05:16:44 PM
Maybe. I think we have improved more than they have. Look at their last 6 games a little closer:
6 point win vs. CREI at home (we won by 8)
22 point loss vs. NOVA at home (we won by 2)
7 point win vs. X at home (we won by 22)
3 point win vs. DEP on the road (we won by 13)
3 point win vs. GTWN at home (we won by 10)
6 point win vs. BUT on the road (we lost by 8)
Honestly, the only game where I think they were impressive was @Butler. The rest were underwhelming results against middle of the conference competition. Seems kind of like Creighton post Mo Watson honestly.
So will the Hall team that beat Butler on the road show up? Or will the Hall team that barely escaped Depaul and Georgetown show up?
Margin of victory hardly matters at all, especially when you're trying to do it while comparing how you did against similar opponents.
Margin of victory over the long run against similar opponents will give you a good indicator. All of the best computer ranking models use margin of victory in some shape or form.
If 2 teams played the same exact schedule and team A was 10-10 but in the wins won by 20 and in the losses lost by an average of 3 and team B also went 10-10 but won by an average of 3 in the wins but lost by an average of 20 in the losses it would tell you that team A is likely better then team B
Quote from: MuMark on March 07, 2017, 06:03:47 PM
Margin of victory over the long run against similar opponents will give you a good indicator. All of the best computer ranking models use margin of victory in some shape or form.
If 2 teams played the same exact schedule and team A was 10-10 but in the wins won by 20 and in the losses lost by an average of 3 and team B also went 10-10 but won by an average of 3 in the wins but lost by an average of 20 in the losses it would tell you that team A is likely better then team B
All about matchups. Team A could beat team C by 20 because they match up well against them while team B could beat team C by 2 in overtime. Means nothing towards what would happen between teams A and B.
We've played Seton Hall twice. Both games came down to the wire. We're very close to each other, regardless of how we've faired against common opponents.
If we want to decide who's been playing better as of late compared to early in the conference it'd be better to compare our results with teams we played early in the year and then late in the year.
Marquette's archers will prevail. Start raising the flag.
I agree we are very close to SH but we will in all likelihood be favored by something close to the Pomeroy projection of 4 points.
Certainly a game either side could easily win.
Quote from: g0lden3agle on March 07, 2017, 12:37:52 PM
Very cool idea. Do you own that document? It'd be cool to get a little more in depth in terms of seeing which conference has owned it the most, how many days a team owned it before giving it up, etc.
Don't ask me why I did this, but the ACC has owned it the most, followed by the combined total of non power conferences. The Big East is a close 3rd. Most interesting aspect, the Pac12 has only owned it for a grand total of ~36 days since 2001. I say approximate because I wasn't very strict on accuracy, and can't be certain on when the season started each year (I didn't include offseason days in holding the title).
For comparison sake, Duke has held it for ~300 days, far longer than anyone else, and longer than the entire SEC, entire Big10, entire Big12 and Pac12.
Only the BE has held it longer than Duke.
That's kind of crazy.
Quote from: bilsu on March 07, 2017, 06:48:59 AM
We need to shoot well. We will not win the game, if we are throwing up klunkers. What concerns me is that I believe we are 0-3 in the Garden this year. I think that is where we played Michigan and Pitt.
Time for us to go 3-0 @ Da Garden :)
(http://i.imgur.com/9Ykp4i8.gif)
That crazy thing is what if were all wrong and were not a lock. Lots say us vs SH is a play in game but idk whose wrong or right here. both should be in really.
Quote from: wadesworld on March 07, 2017, 05:52:56 PM
Margin of victory hardly matters at all, especially when you're trying to do it while comparing how you did against similar opponents.
If your premise is that matchup is an important part of the puzzle, I would agree with you. I would also agree that margin of victory alone can't give you the whole picture, not even close. But it is relevant data.
Margin of victory mattas.
Quote from: Johnny B on March 07, 2017, 08:16:18 PM
That crazy thing is what if were all wrong and were not a lock. Lots say us vs SH is a play in game but idk whose wrong or right here. both should be in really.
Its not us who would be wrong. It would be 129 out 130 bracketologists who would be wrong.
The talking heads say that about any team who isn't a stone cold lock. At this point, we would need beyond extraordinary results from conference tournaments to not be included in the tournament.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on March 07, 2017, 05:16:44 PM
Maybe. I think we have improved more than they have. Look at their last 6 games a little closer:
6 point win vs. CREI at home (we won by 8)
22 point loss vs. NOVA at home (we won by 2)
7 point win vs. X at home (we won by 22)
3 point win vs. DEP on the road (we won by 13)
3 point win vs. GTWN at home (we won by 10)
6 point win vs. BUT on the road (we lost by 8)
Honestly, the only game where I think they were impressive was @Butler. The rest were underwhelming results against middle of the conference competition. Seems kind of like Creighton post Mo Watson honestly.
So will the Hall team that beat Butler on the road show up? Or will the Hall team that barely escaped Depaul and Georgetown show up?
Is this the transitive property of basketball theory?
Quote from: buckchuckler on March 07, 2017, 08:56:02 PM
Is this the transitive property of basketball theory?
No. The transitive property of basketball theory would be "We beat Nova, they lost to Nova, we will be Seton Hall." This is a series of data points that indicate we might be better than Seton Hall based on how how we've fared against a group of common opponents. But its very basic and far from conclusive.
Honestly shouldn't have even mentioned our margin of victory. My point was that Seton Hall's winning 5 out of 6 isn't quite as impressive as it sounds on its face. Three of the wins were against teams playing in the first day of the BET and had single digit margins of victory. Two of them were by 1 possession despite being against the two worst teams in the conference, one of which was at home. 1 of their wins was at home against the 6th placed team in the conference. Really they only have one impressive win during this streak and that was their most recent at Butler. Doesn't mean that they aren't dangerous....just not as much as one might assume.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on March 07, 2017, 09:12:15 PM
Honestly shouldn't have even mentioned our margin of victory. My point was that Seton Hall's winning 5 out of 6 isn't quite as impressive as it sounds on its face. Three of the wins were against teams playing in the first day of the BET and had single digit margins of victory. Two of them were by 1 possession despite being against the two worst teams in the conference, one of which was at home. 1 of their wins was at home against the 6th placed team in the conference. Really they only have one impressive win during this streak and that was their most recent at Butler. Doesn't mean that they aren't dangerous....just not as much as one might assume.
Margin of victory is a ridiculous reason to say we may be better. But anyway...
Ok well, just to be devil's advocate... Maybe our 4 out of 5 wasn't as impressive as it seems. I mean, 3 of the 4 were against teams playing on the first day of the Big East Tourney (better margins, but then, that doesn't really matter, does it? Win by 1 win by 50 it is the same thing). The one other win we had was at home against a team that didn't have its (arguably) most important player. (If you are looking to minimize accomplishments, this is an easy way to do so.)
They beat Creighton, X and Butler in their last 6. We beat X,X and Creighton in our run. That is advantage Hall. Heck, their win at Butler is nearly as impressive as our win over Nova.
Best not try to minimize the accomplishments of others when your own are just as vulnerable.
We have to get into a transition game. A slower game favors the grind it out strength of Seton Hall.
This is going to be a heckuva of a Big East tournament .
Can't wait to go.
Quote from: buckchuckler on March 07, 2017, 10:32:36 PM
Margin of victory is a ridiculous reason to say we may be better. But anyway...
Ok well, just to be devil's advocate... Maybe our 4 out of 5 wasn't as impressive as it seems. I mean, 3 of the 4 were against teams playing on the first day of the Big East Tourney (better margins, but then, that doesn't really matter, does it? Win by 1 win by 50 it is the same thing). The one other win we had was at home against a team that didn't have its (arguably) most important player. (If you are looking to minimize accomplishments, this is an easy way to do so.)
They beat Creighton, X and Butler in their last 6. We beat X,X and Creighton in our run. That is advantage Hall. Heck, their win at Butler is nearly as impressive as our win over Nova.
Best not try to minimize the accomplishments of others when your own are just as vulnerable.
So you assertion is that margin of victory isn't an indication of a better team. That seems suspect. Pretty much every ranking system but RPI uses margin of victory.....and RPI is universally categorized as inaccurate and outdated.
I mean if one team beats Grambling by 30 and one beats Grambling by 1, that wouldn't give you some clue that one team might be a little better than the other? It wouldn't be definitive, because its too small of a sample size, but the more games you add, the more predictive it becomes. Again, this is oversimplified but this very concept is the basis for ranking systems like KP. That's why Marquette is 28 in KP and Seton Hall is 54.
Personally, I think we are playing better ball right now. In our 4 wins, we dominated the competition from coast to coast. Seton Hall squeaked out games against Georgetown (H), Depaul (A), was solid against Creigton (H) and X (H), and was great against Butler (A).
But none of that really matters on Thursday. How either team has played over the past few game doesn't really affect how they will play in the next one. It will depend on which team plays closer to the ceiling of their ability. But I do think that if both teams played an average game for their ability, Marquette would win because they are the better team....especially with Ish Sanogo injured.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on March 07, 2017, 11:13:32 PM
So you assertion is that margin of victory isn't an indication of a better team. That seems suspect. Pretty much every ranking system but RPI uses margin of victory.....and RPI is universally categorized as inaccurate and outdated.
I mean if one team beats Grambling by 30 and one beats Grambling by 1, that wouldn't give you some clue that one team might be a little better than the other? It wouldn't be definitive, because its too small of a sample size, but the more games you add, the more predictive it becomes. Again, this is oversimplified but this very concept is the basis for ranking systems like KP. That's why Marquette is 28 in KP and Seton Hall is 54.
Personally, I think we are playing better ball right now. In our 4 wins, we dominated the competition from coast to coast. Seton Hall squeaked out games against Georgetown (H), Depaul (A), was solid against Creigton (H) and X (H), and was great against Butler (A).
But none of that really matters on Thursday. How either team has played over the past few game doesn't really affect how they will play in the next one. It will depend on which team plays closer to the ceiling of their ability. But I do think that if both teams played an average game for their ability, Marquette would win because they are the better team....especially with Ish Sanogo injured.
Do any of those ratings use margin as their primary factor? Their only factor as you did?
If so thise rankings should be flushed. Each game is independent of the others. Thats why transitive property doesn't apply. Also that is why margin is a poor yard stick.
We are playing well now, probably as well as we have all season. Hall just had their biggest win, on the road. They are playing well right now also.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on March 07, 2017, 08:48:51 PM
If your premise is that matchup is an important part of the puzzle, I would agree with you. I would also agree that margin of victory alone can't give you the whole picture, not even close. But it is relevant data.
Margin of victory mattas.
I'm not so sure it matters as more than a secondary indicator. Take the first MU-Nova game, we got beat by 12 points but mostly because of a late flurry of 3s by MU....howeva, we also had the #1 offensive performance against Nova that night that they've seen all season. Not sure how margin of victory helps you unpackage that.
Quote from: buckchuckler on March 08, 2017, 11:49:40 AM
Do any of those ratings use margin as their primary factor? Their only factor as you did?
If so thise rankings should be flushed. Each game is independent of the others. Thats why transitive property doesn't apply. Also that is why margin is a poor yard stick.
We are playing well now, probably as well as we have all season. Hall just had their biggest win, on the road. They are playing well right now also.
It is not the only factor but it is one of the primary factors in all of them yes. It is a valid data point. Get enough of them and it paints a good picture. As I've said repeatedly, this is not definitive or scientific proof that we are better than Seton Hall. Just an observation.
Seton Hall played its best basketball of the season in its last game. In the few games before that they played very average basketball for them.
But as you point out, this doesn't matter because each game is independent. Just because we've been playing well and they played great their last time out doesn't have any bearing on how they will perform tomorrow.
Quote from: mu03eng on March 08, 2017, 12:42:37 PM
I'm not so sure it matters as more than a secondary indicator. Take the first MU-Nova game, we got beat by 12 points but mostly because of a late flurry of 3s by MU....howeva, we also had the #1 offensive performance against Nova that night that they've seen all season. Not sure how margin of victory helps you unpackage that.
First, I would ask why a late flurry of 3s matters less than an early flurry of 3s.
Second, I would say that the Nova game is one data point. Fairly useless on its own. The more data points you add, the more accurate a picture it becomes.
Here is KenPom's explanation of predictive analytics:
http://kenpom.com/blog/ratings-explanation/ (http://kenpom.com/blog/ratings-explanation/)
You can scroll down about 6 or 7 paragraphs for the key sentence. "The inputs into the pythagorean equation are the team's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies."
Granted, that is clearly not the same thing as scoring margin. Scoring margin doesn't take into account the site (home, away or neutral), and it's not adjusted for pace or the level of competition. But ultimately, all other factors being equal, a more efficient offense produces more points than a less efficient offense — and wins games by a bigger margin.
That's a tremendous, gigantic simplification. But it's also an easy-to-understand way to differentiate between systems like KenPom and RPI — where offensive/defensive efficiency plays no role whatsoever, only who wins and who loses.
All that said, looking forward to postseason basketball this year. Hopefully MU can make some noise.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on March 08, 2017, 12:44:46 PM
It is not the only factor but it is one of the primary factors in all of them yes. It is a valid data point. Get enough of them and it paints a good picture. As I've said repeatedly, this is not definitive or scientific proof that we are better than Seton Hall. Just an observation.
Ok understood. Good conversation, I guess, I think that while winning margins are data points they arent necessarily linked together, they are just data floating in space, but then, I am no expert and mostly ignorant about most things.
Marquette opens -3.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on March 07, 2017, 05:16:44 PM
Maybe. I think we have improved more than they have. Look at their last 6 games a little closer:
6 point win vs. CREI at home (we won by 8)
22 point loss vs. NOVA at home (we won by 2)
7 point win vs. X at home (we won by 22)
3 point win vs. DEP on the road (we won by 13)
3 point win vs. GTWN at home (we won by 10)
6 point win vs. BUT on the road (we lost by 8)
Honestly, the only game where I think they were impressive was @Butler. The rest were underwhelming results against middle of the conference competition. Seems kind of like Creighton post Mo Watson honestly.
So will the Hall team that beat Butler on the road show up? Or will the Hall team that barely escaped Depaul and Georgetown show up?
We lost at Georgetown the last game we played them. We beat Georgetown in the opening conference game and I am not sure how this fits into the picture of Seton Hall's last 6 games.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on March 08, 2017, 12:57:48 PM
First, I would ask why a late flurry of 3s matters less than an early flurry of 3s.
Two reasons - though not particularly applicable here:
The easiest way to summarize the first point is to say that "garbage time" cannot - by definition - exist in the first half. While there's a chance that a late flurry won't have any effect on the outcome of a game, an early flurry will
always have an impact on the outcome of a game. Related to this is that an early flurry is often associated with
building a lead while a late flurry is typically associated with
playing catch-up, therefore, as a single metric the early flurry would more often be a greater indicator of positive performance than a late flurry would.
Second, when a team shoots from the perimeter, they draw fewer fouls per possession. Essentially, when you attempt a 3, you miss an opportunity to draw a foul and potentially put an opposing player into foul trouble (which is correlated with higher PPP). Since coaches will actively manage their bench so as to avoid early foul trouble, there becomes fewer opportunities in the first half. So you're giving up fewer opportunities to put an opposing player into foul trouble with the early flurry than you are with the late flurry.
Quote from: bilsu on March 08, 2017, 03:22:58 PM
We lost at Georgetown the last game we played them. We beat Georgetown in the opening conference game and I am not sure how this fits into the picture of Seton Hall's last 6 games.
Because where you play a game is significantly more relevant than when the game was played. But again, I shouldn't have put our margins of victory in. I did it just to give people something to compare it to. My point wasn't to say we were better than Hall. My point was to show that Hall's win streak to end the season may not necessarily mean that they are a better basketball team now than they were when we played them.
Quote from: Benny B on March 08, 2017, 03:24:22 PM
Two reasons - though not particularly applicable here:
The easiest way to summarize the first point is to say that "garbage time" cannot - by definition - exist in the first half. While there's a chance that a late flurry won't have any effect on the outcome of a game, an early flurry will always have an impact on the outcome of a game. Related to this is that an early flurry is often associated with building a lead while a late flurry is typically associated with playing catch-up, therefore, as a single metric the early flurry would more often be a greater indicator of positive performance than a late flurry would.
Second, when a team shoots from the perimeter, they draw fewer fouls per possession. Essentially, when you attempt a 3, you miss an opportunity to draw a foul and potentially put an opposing player into foul trouble (which is correlated with higher PPP). Since coaches will actively manage their bench so as to avoid early foul trouble, there becomes fewer opportunities in the first half. So you're giving up fewer opportunities to put an opposing player into foul trouble with the early flurry than you are with the late flurry.
I personally have never put much stock into the garbage time argument unless walk ons are in the game. Wright kept his starters in until the end (maybe not the last minute). There is no evidence that Marquette's late flurry of threes was because Nova "called off the dogs" and not because Marquette executed its offense better than Nova executed their defense. I can understand why its reasonable to make that assumption but I don't think its as big of a factor as many think. But more to this conversation, garbage time would be significant because it is a one game example. But it becomes less and less important the more games get added. After all, there were games where we had garbage time against opponents so our margin of victory in those games would have been affected. And most teams that play Nova end up facing Nova in garbage time mode but we were the only one (to my knowledge) that took advantage and cut this big into the deficit.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on March 08, 2017, 03:47:00 PM
Because where you play a game is significantly more relevant than when the game was played. But again, I shouldn't have put our margins of victory in. I did it just to give people something to compare it to. My point wasn't to say we were better than Hall. My point was to show that Hall's win streak to end the season may not necessarily mean that they are a better basketball team now than they were when we played them.
I would argue that the where is more significant to the when only if discussing an early-season game,
i.e. There comes a point where the when is greater than where.
Looks like Golden Avalanche was right on top of the dumpster fire. I hope Wojo is not utilizing Golden's ball knowledge in any of his game planning sessions. Really is amazing the confidence Golden had in his analysis of the SH situation.
Quote from: Goose on March 09, 2017, 03:36:09 PM
Looks like Golden Avalanche was right on top of the dumpster fire. I hope Wojo is not utilizing Golden's ball knowledge in any of his game planning sessions. Really is amazing the confidence Golden had in his analysis of the SH situation.
Burn.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 09, 2017, 10:55:34 PM
Didn't look like much of dumpster fire today.
Today's result is irrelevant. This isn't a game by game referendum, contrary to you two not being bright enough to comprehend. The embers continue to flame in South Orange.
Golden
How do you find the time to be an expert on multiple programs? Hat's off to you, you have a very blessed life.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on March 08, 2017, 03:47:00 PM
Because where you play a game is significantly more relevant than when the game was played. But again, I shouldn't have put our margins of victory in. I did it just to give people something to compare it to. My point wasn't to say we were better than Hall. My point was to show that Hall's win streak to end the season may not necessarily mean that they are a better basketball team now than they were when we played them.
True, but the post started out saying we improved more than Seton Hall and went on to verify this by looking at Seton Hall's last 6 games. The fact that we beat Georgetown the first game of the conference season has nothing to do with improvement in the last 6 games. This certainly was verified in yesturdays game, where Seton Hall certainly looked like they improved more than we did.
Quote from: bilsu on March 10, 2017, 07:26:55 AM
True, but the post started out saying we improved more than Seton Hall and went on to verify this by looking at Seton Hall's last 6 games. The fact that we beat Georgetown the first game of the conference season has nothing to do with improvement in the last 6 games. This certainly was verified in yesturdays game, where Seton Hall certainly looked like they improved more than we did.
Again, was dissecting their win streak. Not commenting on us.
Nothing was verified yesterday, as one game cannot verify much of anything. I saw us have an abnormally poor shooting night and them have an abnormally good shooting night. If we played again today I wouldn't be surprised if we blem them out by 20. Or if we lost by even more. That's the funny thing about basketball.
Quote from: Goose on March 10, 2017, 07:20:54 AM
Golden
How do you find the time to be an expert on multiple programs? Hat's off to you, you have a very blessed life.
I have no idea to what Golden is referring to but their program is in serious financial trouble. That's why I personally worry about Seton Hall in the Big East. I'm not sure what financial commitment they will be able to make in the future. Money spent does not equal success but it certainly helps.
TAMU
I give you credit, you are up on all of the scoop. I had not heard anything of the sort and I have a very good friend who is big supporter of the program. I can believe they could be having financial troubles, but highly doubt it is leaving BE worthy. Who knows, you might be right.
Quote from: Goose on March 10, 2017, 08:52:22 AM
TAMU
I give you credit, you are up on all of the scoop. I had not heard anything of the sort and I have a very good friend who is big supporter of the program. I can believe they could be having financial troubles, but highly doubt it is leaving BE worthy. Who knows, you might be right.
So, does TAMU have a very blessed life as well? Or is that just reserved for me?
Golden
TAMU is gentleman and I respect his opinions on here. He is a class act and hope his life is blessed.
Quote from: Goose on March 10, 2017, 08:52:22 AM
TAMU
I give you credit, you are up on all of the scoop. I had not heard anything of the sort and I have a very good friend who is big supporter of the program. I can believe they could be having financial troubles, but highly doubt it is leaving BE worthy. Who knows, you might be right.
Oh no, not leaving the Big East worthy. Just not able to invest as much in athletics. Again, dollars spent does not always equate to success, but it certainly doesn't hurt.
Kevin Willard did a helluva job getting his junior class. Potentially one of the best classes for a Big East team ever. Will be interesting to see how/if he can follow up on it. He lost 2/3 of the following class, and he got one contributor in this year's class. 2018 is going to be big for the Pirates.
Quote from: Goose on March 10, 2017, 11:05:44 AM
Golden
TAMU is gentleman and I respect his opinions on here. He is a class act and hope his life is blessed.
Why thank you good sir. I hope your life is blessed as well
TAMU
I am pretty blessed, but thanks for caring:)
Watching Seton Hall play Villanova..... I think I am finally finding a conference opponent to truly loathe. Seton Hall, the new Big East's first villain.
Maybe Seton Hall is pretty good and losing to them isn't a sign that we suck. They are making Nova look pretty bad ....
Hall loves them some MSG.
Technically a win for Seton Hall is better for Marquette. We played three times so they affect our numbers more.
Quote from: tower912 on March 10, 2017, 05:58:16 PM
Watching Seton Hall play Villanova..... I think I am finally finding a conference opponent to truly loathe. Seton Hall, the new Big East's first villain.
And every one but Jones returns next year. How really good would they had been with Whitehead this year.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on March 10, 2017, 06:12:57 PM
Hall loves them some MSG.
Technically a win for Seton Hall is better for Marquette. We played three times so they affect our numbers more.
Yah, but I prefer to Nova feather on the cap that only Butler has. The difference in RPI will be negligible.
Seton hall has a group of really really tough kids that play really hard.
Hell of a fight by SHU. But what a choke at the end by Delgado. Dude is automatic in traffic from under 5 feet and he misses 2 bunnies.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on March 10, 2017, 11:15:34 AM
Oh no, not leaving the Big East worthy. Just not able to invest as much in athletics. Again, dollars spent does not always equate to success, but it certainly doesn't hurt.
Kevin Willard did a helluva job getting his junior class. Potentially one of the best classes for a Big East team ever. Will be interesting to see how/if he can follow up on it. He lost 2/3 of the following class, and he got one contributor in this year's class. 2018 is going to be big for the Pirates.
The Hall is on the uptrend as a University . The money will be there for them.
Quote from: Marquette Fan In NY on March 10, 2017, 09:28:38 PM
The Hall is on the uptrend as a University . The money will be there for them.
Could be. But not based on what I've heard.
Change is coming in higher education. It's going to be hard to be a private university unless you are one of the elite. Not sure Seton Hall is there.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on March 10, 2017, 09:56:40 PM
Could be. But not based on what I've heard.
Change is coming in higher education. It's going to be hard to be a private university unless you are one of the elite. Not sure Seton Hall is there.
They did just add a medical school.
Quote from: forgetful on March 10, 2017, 10:22:46 PM
They did just add a medical school.
They've had a med school for a while. Unless they both closed and reopened it within the last 20 years.
Quote from: Benny B on March 10, 2017, 11:14:19 PM
They've had a med school for a while. Unless they both closed and reopened it within the last 20 years.
They sold their medical and dental schools to the state (like MU) back in 1965. That medical/dental school eventually became part of Rutgers.
They opened a brand new medical school in 2015.
Quote from: nyg on March 10, 2017, 06:13:55 PM
And every one but Jones returns next year. How really good would they had been with Whitehead this year.
Maybe worse. IIRC, there was talk that he was a prima donna cancer on the locker room
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on March 10, 2017, 09:56:40 PM
Could be. But not based on what I've heard.
Change is coming in higher education. It's going to be hard to be a private university unless you are one of the elite. Not sure Seton Hall is there.
Bro, if Seton Hall is affected, you can bet MU will suffer nearly just as much.
Quote from: Eldon on March 11, 2017, 12:08:51 AM
Bro, if Seton Hall is affected, you can bet MU will suffer nearly just as much.
Maybe. I don't think so but I've been known to be wrong.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on March 11, 2017, 01:11:11 AM
Maybe. I don't think so but I've been known to be wrong.
Seton Hall has a very solid niche in the market. Niche schools that offer value to students will be survivors. I have had great success hiring Kids from Seton Hall, Creighton , DePaul and actively seek people from other Big East schools with the exception of Georgetown as their graduates have an entitled , cocky attitude which is thoroughly undeserved and not worth rewarding .
Quote from: Mr. Sand-Knit on March 10, 2017, 07:02:03 PM
Seton hall has a group of really really tough kids that play really hard.
Exactly what is needed in the marathon that is the Big East tournament where the legs get tired, the games get chippier, and defense wins as you have to slug through to the end.
Quote from: Marquette Fan In NY on March 11, 2017, 07:20:46 AM
Seton Hall has a very solid niche in the market. Niche schools that offer value to students will be survivors. I have had great success hiring Kids from Seton Hall, Creighton , DePaul and actively seek people from other Big East schools with the exception of Georgetown as their graduates have an entitled , cocky attitude which is thoroughly undeserved and not worth rewarding .
I think Creighton, Depaul, and the other Big East schools will all be solid. Just not sure about the Hall.