Guys, we aren't as safe as we think. In CBS we are the last 4 in. And in many more brackets we are also in the same spot
Bracketologists are covering their bases. I think they know the BE will get no more than 6 in. But they haven't figured out it's going to be Xavier out. Once they admit that, MU will be more solid.
Before last night Lunardi had PR SH and MU as all last 4 in. He just doesn't know how the BE will shake out so make them all last 4 in.
They'll be more conclusive after Saturday. MU will be solid and X will be out.
Jerry Palm does the CBS one and has been adamantly saying his primary metric is RPI. He's also big on record vs top-200 teams. We are currently 11-11 in that. That's why he has us on the bubble while everyone else has us in.
Looking at the diminishing importance of RPI last year and the Committee's stated plan to move away from it, I'm not particularly bothered by what Jerry Palm says.
The committees top 16 seeds reflected that top 50 wins are huge. We have more than most teams that are considered locks. We are in fantastic shape.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 02, 2017, 08:06:17 PM
The committees top 16 seeds reflected that top 50 wins are huge. We have more than most teams that are considered locks. We are in fantastic shape.
Top 50 did appear huge
But so did RPI
Quote from: Marquette4life on March 02, 2017, 07:26:00 PM
Guys, we aren't as safe as we think. In CBS we are the last 4 in. And in many more brackets we are also in the same spot
Porky concurs with this assessment. A win on Saturday would surely change his calculus but short of that, we're very borderline and one or two unexpected conference tournament winners could pop our bubble. Remember Georgia's improbable SEC Conf win in '08 after going 4-12 in conf during the regular season? While not common, these things do happen from time to time so expectations need to be tempered.
Quote from: PorkysButthole on March 02, 2017, 08:16:20 PM
Porky concurs with this assessment. A win on Saturday would surely change his calculus but short of that, we're very borderline and one or two unexpected conference tournament winners could pop our bubble. Remember Georgia's improbable SEC Conf win in '08 after going 4-12 in conf during the regular season? While not common, these things do happen from time to time so expectations need to be tempered.
It would likely require 7 or 8 bids to be stolen in a year in which there are very few mid majors deserving of a bid. Anything is possible, but there is no way that many bids will be stolen. I broke this down in the bubble watch thread earlier today.
There are 68 bids. 6 power conferences including the Big East. 26 non power conferences
68-26=42 bids
Right now I see 4 more bids for non power conferences as the least amount that they will get. That leaves 38 bids. As of last night there were 40 power conference teams with winning conference records, one more at .500 and 5 more at 8-9. I think saying 7-8 bids need to be stolen is why to high.
Quote from: bilsu on March 02, 2017, 09:52:34 PM
There are 68 bids. 6 power conferences including the Big East. 26 non power conferences
68-26=42 bids
Right now I see 4 more bids for non power conferences as the least amount that they will get. That leaves 38 bids. As of last night there were 40 power conference teams with winning conference records, one more at .500 and 5 more at 8-9. I think saying 7-8 bids need to be stolen is why to high.
They don't look at conference record.
For instance, last year:
Neither Clemson or Virginia Tech made it with 10-8 ACC records. Syracuse and Pitt were both 9-9 and made it.
Ohio State had an 11-7 B10 record and was in the NIT. 10-8 Michigan made the NCAA.
9-9 Texas Tech made the NCAAs as a eight seed.
South Carolina, LSU, Ole Miss and Georgia all missed out with winning conference records.
Sure they do. However, there is no rule that you have to be .500 in conference, but a .500 team in a power conference is going to be considered. Then the non-conconference games matter.
Quote from: bilsu on March 02, 2017, 10:11:10 PM
Sure they do. However, there is no rule that you have to be .500 in conference, but a .500 team in a power conference is going to be considered. Then the non-conconference games matter.
I just presented you concrete examples where teams with winning conference records were snubbed in favor of teams with .500 records FROM THE SAME CONFERENCE.
They don't look at conference record - or if they do it is just passing. They look at overall results.
Look Iowa isn't going to make the tournament despite its 9-8 conference record. Neither are Utah, Ole Miss or Alabama. Georgia and Vanderbilt are barely hanging on. Cal is 10-6 and bracket matrix has them behind MU.
Hell, Wake Forest at 8-9 is in on about 50% of the brackets!
I'd argue conference records matters a touch more in the BE because of the true round robin vs. the other top 5 leagues other than the B12 where it doesn't matter as much due to those leagues not being true round robins any more.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 02, 2017, 08:06:17 PM
We are in fantastic shape.
This seems overly optimistic. Nova is in fantastic shape. We are a middle aged guy that recently lost some weight leading us to feel better about ourselves than we should because we have been comparing ourselves to other fat middle aged guys.
Quote from: Dr. Vinnie Boombatz on March 02, 2017, 10:19:29 PM
I just presented you concrete examples where teams with winning conference records were snubbed in favor of teams with .500 records FROM THE SAME CONFERENCE.
They don't look at conference record - or if they do it is just passing. They look at overall results.
Look Iowa isn't going to make the tournament despite its 9-8 conference record. Neither are Utah, Ole Miss or Alabama. Georgia and Vanderbilt are barely hanging on. Cal is 10-6 and bracket matrix has them behind MU.
Hell, Wake Forest at 8-9 is in on about 50% of the brackets!
What you gave me was concrete examples of teams with winning conference records that did not make it. I know that happens. What I said is a .500 record in the power conferences is going to get you looked at. That does not mean you are going to make it. With a game to go and conference tournaments to play there are teams that will play themselves in and teams that will play themselves out. Iowa winning today got them above .500, but if the bids came out today they would not be in the tournament. However, what happens if they win their final conference game to get to 10-8 and than win a couple of games in the Big 10 tournament? You cannot really answer that, because we do not know what the other teams are going to do. As close as we are to the end of the season a lot can change between now and the day the bids come out. Xavier could lose once to DePaul and be out or they could beat DePaul twice and then Villanova and be solidly in.
There is still room for us to play our way out of it, but it would take one (probably 2) major clunkers in our next two guaranteed games to do it. Right now, if we're competitive in our next two, we'll be ok. We ought to win one to be "sure", but a lot of things would still need to break against us for us not to be in.
If the NCAA committee decided to implement an electoral college system, then I'd be nervous.
Quote from: bilsu on March 02, 2017, 09:52:34 PM
There are 68 bids. 6 power conferences including the Big East. 26 non power conferences
68-26=42 bids
Right now I see 4 more bids for non power conferences as the least amount that they will get. That leaves 38 bids. As of last night there were 40 power conference teams with winning conference records, one more at .500 and 5 more at 8-9. I think saying 7-8 bids need to be stolen is why to high.
Your conference affiliation is exactly 0% of what the committee considers when looking to give a bid. It does not matter. What matters is who you beat and who you lost to and all the various metrics that measure it. If all 10 Big East teams were tournament worthy, then all 10 would get bids.
Quote from: bilsu on March 02, 2017, 10:37:32 PM
What you gave me was concrete examples of teams with winning conference records that did not make it. I know that happens. What I said is a .500 record in the power conferences is going to get you looked at. That does not mean you are going to make it. With a game to go and conference tournaments to play there are teams that will play themselves in and teams that will play themselves out. Iowa winning today got them above .500, but if the bids came out today they would not be in the tournament. However, what happens if they win their final conference game to get to 10-8 and than win a couple of games in the Big 10 tournament? You cannot really answer that, because we do not know what the other teams are going to do. As close as we are to the end of the season a lot can change between now and the day the bids come out. Xavier could lose once to DePaul and be out or they could beat DePaul twice and then Villanova and be solidly in.
No.
If Iowa wins this weekend to go 10-8 in the B10, they may get looked at closer due to their overall body of work, NOT due to their conference record. They just don't pay much, if any attention to it.
It has been described that way by many of the people who have participated in the process already.
Vinnie is right, it's total body of work. Top 50 wins seems to be carrying weight.
Win tomorrow and the topics and posts can stop :)
Quote from: bilsu on March 02, 2017, 10:11:10 PM
Sure they do. However, there is no rule that you have to be .500 in conference, but a .500 team in a power conference is going to be considered. Then the non-conconference games matter.
Lunardi has MSU seeded 9 and MU 11. Profiles are nearly the same with two exceptions. Non-conference SOS and conference W-L.
Quote from: Sheriff on March 03, 2017, 08:23:21 AM
Lunardi has MSU seeded 9 and MU 11. Profiles are nearly the same with two exceptions. Non-conference SOS and conference W-L.
Sure but Lunardi is on the lower end for us. Fox and SI have us as an 8 and 9 seed, respectively.
Bubble update ESPN (FRI, 300p, ET) -- LAST BYES: Syracuse, Seton Hall, Providence, Marquette; LAST IN: Xavier, USC, Wake Forest, Vandy. FIRST OUT: URI, Cal, Illinois, Georgia Tech. NEXT OUT: K-State, Georgia, Iowa, Clemson.
Quote from: buckchuckler on March 02, 2017, 10:28:02 PM
This seems overly optimistic. Nova is in fantastic shape. We are a middle aged guy that recently lost some weight leading us to feel better about ourselves than we should because we have been comparing ourselves to other fat middle aged guys.
uh oh, that makes me Georgetown ...
Quote from: Sheriff on March 03, 2017, 08:23:21 AM
Lunardi has MSU seeded 9 and MU 11. Profiles are nearly the same with two exceptions. Non-conference SOS and conference W-L.
Also one has a Hall of Fame coach.
Quote from: Marquette Fan In NY on March 03, 2017, 11:01:11 PM
Also one has a Hall of Fame coach.
Which has nothing to do with seeding.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2017/02/28/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-college-basketball-march-madness-baylor/98515272/
We are 11 playing Oklahoma State 6.