MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 01, 2017, 10:05:17 PM
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Book it.
Lock City.
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Idk yet. Though the announcer seemed to think we were
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We're in.
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Let's pump the brakes
Our odds increase tho
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No brakes to pump at this point. You either pay attention and it's obvious, or you don't.
Worst case scenario we're in Dayton. Anyone wants to wager, let me know.
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With the soft bubble and the quality wins I'd be stunned if we weren't in.
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we are in baby!
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No brakes to pump at this point. You either pay attention and it's obvious, or you don't.
Worst case scenario we're in Dayton. Anyone wants to wager, let me know.
Dayton sucks. Win Saturday and avoid that dump
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I for one appreciate JJJJJs effort that he has put in on his 'bubble work' the last 2 weeks. He knows the 5 teams ahead of us on the bubble (and their opponents) and the 5 behind us. I believe what JJJJJ is selling. We got it tonight. Thanks for the effort JJJJJ!
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I would rather beat Creighton which would enable us to survive a bad loss in the BET.
If we win Saturday, we are the #3 seed.
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One more and I'll feel safe. Otherwise I am sweating bullets on Selection Sunday!
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Lose at home versus Creighton. Lose a game in the Big East Tournament that is 13 loses. Lock that bid on Saturday.
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I've been very positive this whole time, but don't count your chickens, people. Threads like this are bad juju
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I would rather beat Creighton which would enable us to survive a bad loss in the BET.
If we win Saturday, we are the #3 seed.
Rather than what? Beat X on the road?
We can do both--hopefully no rather this than that needed.
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We are in. The entirety of the body of work at this point speaks for itself. It's all seeding now.
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Book it.
Lock City.
If we lose the next two, I think we are out. We were a Last 4 In before this game. Losing 2 out of 3 would knock them out.
I am confident that won't happen.
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I would rather beat Creighton which would enable us to survive a bad loss in the BET.
If we win Saturday, we are the #3 seed.
Unfortunately only if SJU beats PC as well
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With the soft bubble and the quality wins I'd be stunned if we weren't in.
Drop the mic.
Xavier might want to start worrying. Now 3-9 against Top 50. MU is 6-6, and sweeps Xavier. No way Xavier should get in over MU given the above. RPI should equal: Relatively Putrid Index. KenPom much better.
Happy for the team and coaching staff. We are IN.
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Lunardi moved MU off last four in now, but has Xavier as last 4 in.
Bubble update (11:15p, ET). LAST FOUR IN: Xavier, Cal, USC, Wake Forest. FIRST FOUR OUT: Vandy, Ga Tech, Rhode Island, K-State.
Joe Lunardi, Senior Writer, ESPN.com
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I for one appreciate JJJJJs effort that he has put in on his 'bubble work' the last 2 weeks. He knows the 5 teams ahead of us on the bubble (and their opponents) and the 5 behind us. I believe what JJJJJ is selling. We got it tonight. Thanks for the effort JJJJJ!
Appreciate it. Glad my work hasn't gone unnoticed.
If we lose the next two, I think we are out. We were a Last 4 In before this game. Losing 2 out of 3 would knock them out.
I am confident that won't happen.
I don't think so man. Big win for Wake tonight. They're in great shape too. Had we not won, I'd be worried. But we're in fantastic shape. Can't get the the 7 seed any longer. No Depaul loss looming.
We're in. I'm extremely confident, and I have a pretty damn good idea of what this bubble looks like.
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I would rather beat Creighton which would enable us to survive a bad loss in the BET.
If we win Saturday, we are the #3 seed.
This........
I don't trust an announcer or analyst on Fox. I don't trust 9-9 in conference with 7 BE teams in(if X keeps losing that might change), until they say so on Selection Sunday. But win Saturday and its a lock, even with an opening BE tournament loss. Tonight was a great win.
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Unfortunately only if SJU beats PC as well
Dammit. That means we'd play Thursday afternoon right?
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Win one more. Preferably Saturday. If not, one in BET and I feel comfortable. Plus it will ensure no game in Dayton
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Given the quality of X's schedule, sweeping them is huge, even though they've been sputtering sans Sumner. Ranking above them in the BE + our top 50 wins is extremely compelling. Still, let's erase all doubt and finish strong with 2 more wins vs Creighton and in the BET.
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Dammit. That means we'd play Thursday afternoon right?
Not necessarily. We lose on Sat we could still get the 6.
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Dammit. That means we'd play Thursday afternoon right?
Only if they are the 4/5. if they end up as the 3 or the 6 it will be the last game Thursday night.
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Up to 58 in our biggest detriment, RPI.
Gents, we are dancing.
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Unfortunately only if SJU beats PC as well
I think if PC beast SJU and we beat Creighton, we get the 4-seed and Creighton the 5-seed and get to play them back to back.
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I think if PC beast SJU and we beat Creighton, we get the 4-seed and Creighton the 5-seed and get to play them back to back.
I think we play CU as well if they beat us, PC loses to SJU and SHU loses to Butler. 6/3 game.
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I'm feeling pretty confident. About 95%. Not ready to call it a lock. As much as I think our resume is solid, you just never know what the committee is thinking.
That being said, it is now impossible for us to face Depaul in the first round of the BET. That. Is. Huge.
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I'm feeling pretty confident. About 95%. Not ready to call it a lock. As much as I think our resume is solid, you just never know what the committee is thinking.
That being said, it is now impossible for us to face Depaul in the first round of the BET. That. Is. Huge.
Cmon TAMU. 95%.
Obviously if all hell broke lose and we had 5 bid stealers combined with us losing our next two, we'll be nervous, but we're still playing in Dayton.
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Book it.
Lock City.
I'm surprised no one has mentioned this, but all of our big wins come with caveats. If we sweep Creighton, both wins were against a Watson-less Creighton, which is about .500 in the Big East. Both of our wins against Xavier were against this struggling six loss in a row Xavier, also with injury issues. Finally our W against Villanova was pulling a rabbit out of a hat on one of their worse shooting nights. I'm not convinced we're entirely deserving yet.
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I'm surprised no one has mentioned this, but all of our big wins come with caveats. If we sweep Creighton, both wins were against a Watson-less Creighton, which is about .500 in the Big East. Both of our wins against Xavier were against this struggling six loss in a row Xavier, also with injury issues. Finally our W against Villanova was pulling a rabbit out of a hat on one of their worse shooting nights. I'm not convinced we're entirely deserving yet.
Scoop takes?
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Also, right now I think there is no way we end up lower than the 6 seed, which means we can't get another bad loss. I think any tie scenario would include Xavier and we beat them in tie breakers.
Not sure though, since the scenarios get complicated, but pretty sure the sweep gets us at worst the 6-seed.
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I'm surprised no one has mentioned this, but all of our big wins come with caveats. If we sweep Creighton, both wins were against a Watson-less Creighton, which is about .500 in the Big East. Both of our wins against Xavier were against this struggling six loss in a row Xavier, also with injury issues. Finally our W against Villanova was pulling a rabbit out of a hat on one of their worse shooting nights. I'm not convinced we're entirely deserving yet.
Oh for christs sake. Yes, you're right on all counts, but it all balances out. We shot lights out in our two wins against X, and played balls-to-the-wall down the stretch against Nova. It takes two to tango, and we will be judged for our wins and nothing else.
Our wins against XU will only look less attractive because their overall rating has plummeted.
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We're in. Guaranteed the 6 at worst, which means our remaining worst case is losing to Creighton and Creighton/Providence/Seton Hall. Maybe X, but still, no more bad losses. Time to celebrate.
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Also, right now I think there is no way we end up lower than the 6 seed, which means we can't get another bad loss. I think any tie scenario would include Xavier and we beat them in tie breakers.
Not sure though, since the scenarios get complicated, but pretty sure the sweep gets us at worst the 6-seed.
Correct. Clinched at worst 6 seed.
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Unfortunately only if SJU beats PC as well
Not neccessarily. If Butler beats Seton Hall and MU beats Creighton, it would be a 3 way tie. MU would sweep Creighton, who swept PC, who swept MU. Mini-conference would be a 3 way tie at 2-2. MU would win tie breaker based on best win, our win over Nova.
A 4 way tie is a whole different story. I'll let someone else tackle that.
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Not neccessarily. If Butler beats Seton Hall and MU beats Creighton, it would be a 3 way tie. MU would sweep Creighton, who swept PC, who swept MU. Mini-conference would be a 3 way tie at 2-2. MU would win tie breaker based on best win, our win over Nova.
A 4 way tie is a whole different story. I'll let someone else tackle that.
Pretty sure X split w all those teams. So goes back to us vs PC on tie breaker. Does it then go back to Nova?
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We're in. Guaranteed the 6 at worst, which means our remaining worst case is losing to Creighton and Creighton/Providence/Seton Hall. Maybe X, but still, no more bad losses. Time to celebrate.
Looking through things, it is really hard for us to not be playing Creighton the next two games. Most scenarios end that way.
I like our chances of winning at least 1 out of 2 against them.
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Not neccessarily. If Butler beats Seton Hall and MU beats Creighton, it would be a 3 way tie. MU would sweep Creighton, who swept PC, who swept MU. Mini-conference would be a 3 way tie at 2-2. MU would win tie breaker based on best win, our win over Nova.
A 4 way tie is a whole different story. I'll let someone else tackle that.
4 way tie at 9-9, we get 5th (Creighton in 3, PC in 4).
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Looking through things, it is really hard for us to not be playing Creighton the next two games. Most scenarios end that way.
I like our chances of winning at least 1 out of 2 against them.
Let's say we beat them Saturday. Gonna make that matchup at MSG a real dooozy.
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Agree we are in for sure.
What will it take for us to avoid being an 8/9 in the tourney? I feel like that's worst case right now outside of playing in Dayton. Oddly enough I wouldn't mind being a 10 or 11. But to heck with that, let's make a run in the BET!
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Yes we are in.
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Agree we are in for sure.
What will it take for us to avoid being an 8/9 in the tourney? I feel like that's worst case right now outside of playing in Dayton. Oddly enough I wouldn't mind being a 10 or 11. But to heck with that, let's make a run in the BET!
Heck, take the 8-9 game. That means we likely win our next two. Then pray we are opposite Gonzaga. Take them down and walk our way to the elite 8.
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Yes we are in.
I certainly could be wrong, but losing 2 out of 3 after being among Last Four In does not guarantee a bid.
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JJJJ, I also want to Thank you for all of your efforts breaking down the bubble. Your work has been extremely enlightening and entertaining, especially when the head-in-the sand people chime in with their personal views on what they believe it will take to dance.
In JJJJ I trust.
That being said, I (like everyone but the hater-parade) will be rooting hard for a big W Saturday on Senior day and for the team to build additional mo with a decent showing in the BET.
With the way this team can fill it up, we just need a ticket to the dance and we could just maybe shock some teams in what should be a wide-open tourney.
March Madness is back for Warriors fans and it feels so good to be back!!
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Not neccessarily. If Butler beats Seton Hall and MU beats Creighton, it would be a 3 way tie. MU would sweep Creighton, who swept PC, who swept MU. Mini-conference would be a 3 way tie at 2-2. MU would win tie breaker based on best win, our win over Nova.
A 4 way tie is a whole different story. I'll let someone else tackle that.
Adding Seton Hall in, who split with all three, still gives us the 3 on the Nova win.
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Heck, take the 8-9 game. That means we likely win our next two. Then pray we are opposite Gonzaga. Take them down and walk our way to the elite 8.
Yeah, Zags are the only 1 seed I would feel we would have a shot at. Can't get ahead of ourselves though. The thought of a play-in game leaves a bad taste in my mouth. Don't want any part of that.
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JJJJ, I also want to Thank you for all of your efforts breaking down the bubble. You work has been extremely enlightening and entertaining, especially when the head-in-the sand people's chime in with their personal views on what they believe it will take to dance.
In JJJJ I trust.
That being said, I (like everyone but the hater-parade) will be rooting hard for a big W Saturday on Senior day and for the team to build additional mo with a decent showing in the BET.
With the way this team can fill it up, we just need a ticket to the dance and we could just maybe shock some teams in what should be a wide-open tourney.
March Madness is back for Warriors fans and it feels so good to be back!!
Touché my friend.
Trust me, I'll be watching in anticipation. Just glad I'll be able to breathe a bit easier from now til then.
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I also want to thank JJJJJ for all his hard work and analysis. I agree with TAMU if I read this right. We're north of 90% at this point. I don't see X passing us in the pecking order unless they manage a very deep BET run. Heck, they simply have to gather themselves and beat DePaul on the road Saturday.
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I also want to thank JJJJJ for all his hard work and analysis. I agree with TAMU if I read this right. We're north of 90% at this point. I don't see X passing us in the pecking order unless they manage a very deep BET run. Heck, they simply have to gather themselves and beat DePaul on the road Saturday.
Advantages running for MU right now. Based on the season, we have W's against fellow bubble dwellers:
X, Georgia and Vandy.
We are the only bubble team to have beaten the RPI #1. No one has a better win.
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I know that logically and mathematically we're in. However, I am not comfortable yet, I still want us to get to 10-8 and 20 wins (I know it's not necessary) just so I don't feel like we're taking advantage of a weak bubble, so that we earned our spot and would be there regardless.
But hey, if we lose out and still make the tournament you won't hear me complaining.
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4 way tie at 9-9, we get 5th (Creighton in 3, PC in 4).
What about a 4-way tie at 10-8? What would seedings be with a Marquette win, providence win, seton hall win?
Edited after this reading post:
Adding Seton Hall in, who split with all three, still gives us the 3 on the Nova win.
So if I understand Correctly, we simply need to win Saturday to be the #3 seed in BET?
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I still think we can get a bad loss. It would not be because we are losing to a bad team. It would be because we get beat really bad and fail the eye test. Lose two straight games to Creighton by one point margins is a lot different than losing two straight games by an average of 20 points. I fully expect to beat Creighton on Saturday. I thought that was the most likely win with three games to go. They are not a rebounding or defensive team that I fear. Of course we have to show up and play well, but in my mind we are better than Creighton especially on our home floor..
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Not neccessarily. If Butler beats Seton Hall and MU beats Creighton, it would be a 3 way tie. MU would sweep Creighton, who swept PC, who swept MU. Mini-conference would be a 3 way tie at 2-2. MU would win tie breaker based on best win, our win over Nova.
A 4 way tie is a whole different story. I'll let someone else tackle that.
I watched PC beat Creighton exactly 1 week ago
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Thanks jjjjjjjjj for all of your work!
I agree. 9-9 we are in.
Maybe Dayton but we are in.
No reason to complain "ooooh we are in DAYTON! That doesn't count!!!!" -MUFNY, etc....
10-8 escapes the first 4.
But I think 9-9 puts us at a 10 seed. I think the committee will look at us and think "how do you leave mu out of Thursday/Friday with wins over creighton, Nova; 6-6 vs top 50 and shooting 50% from 3. Too exciting."
Boom.
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4 way tie at 9-9, we get 5th (Creighton in 3, PC in 4).
Not possible...no? Both CU and MU have 9 wins.
Four way between PC, MU, SHU and X goes to PC in 4 and MU at 5, no?
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Anywhere but Dayton. Let's lock this sh*t up!
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Respect the process.
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I want the 3 or 6 seed in the BE tournament. I want another chance at Butler some how. 3/6 would go through Butler if the can win their first game.
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Not possible...no? Both CU and MU have 9 wins.
Four way between PC, MU, SHU and X goes to PC in 4 and MU at 5, no?
Correct. Cant be in a 4-way tie with Creighton at 9-9. Either we're both 10-8 or they are 11-7.
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Not neccessarily. If Butler beats Seton Hall and MU beats Creighton, it would be a 3 way tie. MU would sweep Creighton, who swept PC, who swept MU. Mini-conference would be a 3 way tie at 2-2. MU would win tie breaker based on best win, our win over Nova.
A 4 way tie is a whole different story. I'll let someone else tackle that.
Creighton didnt sweep PC. PC wins mini conference at 3-1. We'd be the 4. Need PC to lose to finish 3rd
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It seems there are some mis stated records floating around. Creighton split with providence, not sweep. Creighton is 10-7 so they can never be 9-9 this year in the BE.
Of the 5 teams, Everyone split with everyone except MU swept X and PR swept MU.
So CR is 3 with win over MU
PR is 3 with win and CR Loss
MU is 3 with win and PR loss
SH can't get 3 as PR holds miniconf tiebreaker if all 4 are 10-8 and MU holds miniconf tiebreaker if MU/SH/CR 10-8.
It's all good though.
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Also favorite dance music:
Dancing in the moonlight
Dance with me
Dancing on the ceiling
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Imma gonna go ahead tomorrow and cancel my RSVPs to the game watching parties on the 16th and 17th. Road trip!
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Count me in the camp that isn't ready to celebrate yet. Two more chances for losses, other bubble teams that can make deep runs in their conference tournaments, bid thieves, and no idea what the committee really thinks.
Cautiously optimistic.
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Book it.
Lock City.
Done Deal.
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The specter of the Wed. night game has been banished. We should know by tipoff whether we're playing for the 3 or the 4. Obviously, we lose the tiebreaker if it's just PC but I'd sure love another shot at them somehow (on a decent surface and with refs that call things at both ends).
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The specter of the Wed. night game has been banished. We should know by tipoff whether we're playing for the 3 or the 4. Obviously, we lose the tiebreaker if it's just PC but I'd sure love another shot at them somehow (on a decent surface and with refs that call things at both ends).
Same. Playing Creighton twice in 5 days in less than ideal, especially after we sweep them on Saturday.
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I watched PC beat Creighton exactly 1 week ago
Shoot, you're right. Lousy brain!
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Creighton didnt sweep PC. PC wins mini conference at 3-1. We'd be the 4. Need PC to lose to finish 3rd
This is right. Thought Creighton had swept PC.
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Old math: 48 hours ago, missing the NCAAs + missing next year = Wojo fired.
New math: Average 95 points over the next 9 games = Wojo leaves for Duke in April.
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Old math: 48 hours ago, missing the NCAAs + missing next year = Wojo fired.
New math: Average 95 points over the next 9 games = Wojo leaves for Duke in April.
Pretty sure with our defense there wouldn't be 9 games if we're only scoring 95 ppg ;D
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No brakes to pump at this point. You either pay attention and it's obvious, or you don't.
Worst case scenario we're in Dayton. Anyone wants to wager, let me know.
I'm not saying we won't be in
But Lunardi and palm still have us barely in. 2 losses could bump us out.
Of course those two ain't the final jurors.
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I'm not saying we won't be in
But Lunardi and palm still have us barely in. 2 losses could bump us out.
Of course those two ain't the final jurors.
But who are they going to take instead? That's the real question that has no logical answer.
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But who are they going to take instead? That's the real question that has no logical answer.
It's a good point.
But the fact some still have us so close to bubble is concerning.
Hopefully committee is like last nights announcers and they have eyes.
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I watched PC beat Creighton exactly 1 week ago
PC, Butler and Seton Hall are our worst match ups.
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PC, Butler and Seton Hall are our worst match ups.
Honestly I think SJU is a worse match up then Providence.
They just happen to suck at basketball so we can also destroy them.
If SJU and SHU were more talented/fundamentally sound they'd be a nightmare.
A team like Louisville is what I fear most if we get in the 10/7 game.
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Old math: 48 hours ago, missing the NCAAs + missing next year = Wojo fired.
New math: Average 95 points over the next 9 games = Wojo leaves for Duke in April.
What do you expect when Scoopers fail to take their bipolar meds.
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Win Saturday, play Creighton again in BET and lose(tough to beat a team 3 x's). Well rested and ready to go in the NCAA's then.
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Old math: 48 hours ago, missing the NCAAs + missing next year = Wojo fired.
New math: Average 95 points over the next 9 games = Wojo leaves for Duke in April.
What's the good news, or is that your good news.
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Ring out Nagoya!!! Go Warriors!!!
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for those of you saying "we're a lock" are absolutely ridiculous. We're far from a lock. We're very much a bubble team still. Ya'll are probably the same type of people, who claim we have the game in the bag when we're winning by 8 with two minutes left, only to see the team lose.
Let's pump the brakes. Beat Creighton. and we can say we're a lock when/if we get selected on selection Sunday.
Just win baby
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for those of you saying "we're a lock" are absolutely ridiculous. We're far from a lock. We're very much a bubble team still. Ya'll are probably the same type of people, who claim we have the game in the bag when we're winning by 8 with two minutes left, only to see the team lose.
Let's pump the brakes. Beat Creighton. and we can say we're a lock when/if we get selected on selection Sunday.
Just win baby
It's easy to make these types of comments when you have no clue what the current landscape of the bubble is.
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It's easy to make these types of comments when you have no clue what the current landscape of the bubble is.
JJJJJ, Stop hoarding your bubble analysis! :'(
(https://media.giphy.com/media/11t9sYRP19MFd6/giphy.gif)
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It's easy to make these types of comments when you have no clue what the current landscape of the bubble is.
I know exactly what the current landscape of the bubble looks like. You just need to chill on the "we're a lock" talk, because that's far from the truth.
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I know exactly what the current landscape of the bubble looks like. You just need to chill on the "we're a lock" talk, because that's far from the truth.
Lol. Ok Al Davis. Let's say we lose the next two. Please inform me of the 36 at large teams that are going to be selected over Marquette, and once you reach the last 10 or, provide some actual meaningful data to back that up.
I'll sit back and wait for the response you'll never give.
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I get that al Davis is maybe being cautious and repetitive with his ridiculousness. And that's good. I appreciate caution sign this because who knows what the committee will do.
Having said that, the evidence is pretty damning for other teams and supports MU's case quite well.
The FJM bracket invite metric has MU as a 97.51% chance of getting in.
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I get that al Davis is maybe being cautious and repetitive with his ridiculousness. And that's good. I appreciate caution sign this because who knows what the committee will do.
Having said that, the evidence is pretty damning for other teams and supports MU's case quite well.
The FJM bracket invite metric has MU as a 97.51% chance of getting in.
Ohh, I get the caution for sure. It is comments like "we're far from a lock", "we can say we're a lock once we hear our name on SS", etc., but then offer no real meaningful analysis as to why that is your opinion.
This bubble is historically weak. It is very likely that at least one 15 loss team receives an at large bid for the first time ever. There may be multiple. There will certainly be a couple 14 loss teams, which has only happened 6 times (we're 1 of them!). We don't have the possibility to pick up a bad loss left on our schedule. The teams behind us are pretty safely behind us. You add it all up, and there is pretty much no way MU doesn't receive a bid after last night's W barring some sort of crazy never before seen chain of events.
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I won't think about being in unless we win on Saturday. Then I'll smile and say we are in...
If we lose on Saturday, I'll be sweating out the first BE game... and even if we win one BE game... I won't be sure....
There are always a couple of teams that get left out that could have, should have, been in.... I don't want to be one of those teams. Win Saturday, and I'll expect to be in... otherwise, I won't expect to be in but only hope...