MUScoop
MUScoop => The Superbar => Topic started by: Tugg Speedman on February 06, 2017, 09:59:24 AM
-
ESPN's runs a real-time probability chart during the Superbowl. At the start of the 4th quarter, when the Falcons were leading by 19 points, it gave the Falcons a 86% chance of winning.
Hillary was also given an 86% change of winning election morning (by Nate Silver's 538 blog).
BRexit had around 86% of failing the morning of its vote
The Golden State Warriors had an 86% of winning the NBA championship when they led Cleveland 3 -1 after 4 games.
Nova had a 86% chance of beating MU when leading by 9 with 3 minutes to go.
Not everything is 86%. The Indians only" had a 70% of winning after taking a 3-1 lead over the Cubs after 4 games.
"Over? Did you say over? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the German's bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no! And it ain't over now! Cause when the going gets tough.. The tough get goin'. Who's with me?" - Animal House
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8lT1o0sDwI
http://www.youtube.com/v/V8lT1o0sDwI
-
ESPN's runs a real-time probability chart during the Superbowl. At the start of the 4th quarter, when the Falcons were leading by 19 points, it gave the Falcons a 86% chance of winning.
Hillary was also given an 86% change of winning election morning (by Nate Silver's 538 blog).
BRexit had around 86% of failing the morning of its vote
The Golden State Warriors had an 86% of winning the NBA championship when they led Cleveland 3 -1 after 4 games.
Nova had a 86% chance of beating MU when leading by 9 with 3 minutes to go.
Not everything is 86%. The Indians only" had a 70% of winning after taking a 3-1 lead over the Cubs after 4 games.
"Over? Did you say over? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the German's bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no! And it ain't over now! Cause when the going gets tough.. The tough get goin'. Who's with me?" - Animal House
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8lT1o0sDwI
http://www.youtube.com/v/V8lT1o0sDwI
What the probability of 86% being wrong so many times?
-
What the probability of 86% being wrong so many times?
My calculations are saying about 14%.
-
Hmmmm ... maybe this is where the slang term "86" came from.
As in ...
"The Warriors were sure they were going to 86 the Cavs."
-
ESPN chart on how the odds shifted:
(http://ei.marketwatch.com//Multimedia/2017/02/06/Photos/NS/MW-FF169_downlo_20170206011701_NS.png?uuid=df94ca72-ec33-11e6-b345-001cc448aede)
-
According to that chart at the end of the 3rd quarter the Falcons had about a 98% chance of winning.
-
According to that chart at the end of the 3rd quarter the Falcons had about a 98% chance of winning.
''
Actually 99.5% at its best point.