What a different landscape there is for MU basketball after 18 short days.
MU was 1-2 in the BE, we'd lost 5 of 6 to legit teams and facing another dozen legit games looked like a death spiral to another debate about maybe making the NIT.
I'd posted that I thought MU had a 30% chance this year, and a 50% chance next of making the NCAAs, and that seemed in the ballpark.
A respected poster (nameless) and I were texting .. he estimated a 60% chance Wojo wouldn't be our coach in 15 months, factoring in 4 seasons of no NCAAs that seemed a decent guess.
All that has changed. Our margin for error missing the dance this year has expanded dramatically, and I'd say we have a 90% chance of getting in, which also means that 60%-Wojo gone percentage drops to zero.
Let's go, Warriors.
I know I'm not the only one who feels much better about the state of the program now than I did even a week ago. It sure feels great!
Patience, grasshopper.
Far too many fans are knee-jerky. Not saying that applies to you (or that it doesn't - I don't know you). But it takes more than a year or two to build a program basically from scratch, especially for a first-time head coach. I mean, Shaka ain't exactly burnin' things up in Austin!
This team has gone from missed opportunities (blown second half leads vs Pitt, UW, SHU) to making the most of them. Quite the turn around.
I never got to the point that I thought Wojo wasn't the right guy for the job, I just started resigning myself to the real possibility that we wouldn't be dancing this year again. This year just brightened up considerably in the past week.
'82 I can't be believe you posted and didn't mention Shaka Smart in a post.
Oh wait, yes you did.
Quote from: MU82 on January 25, 2017, 09:34:13 AM
Patience, grasshopper.
Far too many fans are knee-jerky.
Not all negative reactions are "knee-jerky." 18 days ago, it wasn't one game or our record that was dark .. it was the over-all trend that MU didn't appear to be breaking out of, that of not being able to compete with the big boys.
That trend -- which appeared a solid supposition -- has been proven wrong.
Nothing is done yet but this makes me feel much better about losing those big leads against Pitt, Seton Hall, and Butler. Was really feeling like those games were going to bite us big time on Selection Sunday.
Now our destiny is in our own hands and that's all you can ask for.
Quote from: mu_hilltopper on January 25, 2017, 10:54:40 AM
Not all negative reactions are "knee-jerky." 18 days ago, it wasn't one game or our record that was dark .. it was the over-all trend that MU didn't appear to be breaking out of, that of not being able to compete with the big boys.
That trend -- which appeared a solid supposition -- has been proven wrong.
+1
yes, we won. huge for us. Nova seemed complacent even as we chipped away at the 18 point deficit. Not to diminish the win, but we were overlooked. Seemed similar to the UConn win when they were #2. They never seemed to realize we had the momentum, were gaining on them, could win the game. Wright was magnanimous/Calhoun was furious. But I'm stating the obvious. Most interesting to me is the lineup we had in the game at the end!
Saturday will be very telling imo. Are they A)legitimately a top4 team in BE and likely to take care of business on their home court? Or B) Bubble team that plays down to their competition? Or C) Jekyl/Hyde team that plays poorly and ultimately loses to a lesser team....thus negating an amazing 4 days of MU basketball?
Just win baby!
Quote from: OhioGoldenEagle on January 25, 2017, 11:23:50 AM
Saturday will be very telling imo. Are they A)legitimately a top4 team in BE and likely to take care of business on their home court? Or B) Bubble team that plays down to their competition? Or C) Jekyl/Hyde team that plays poorly and ultimately loses to a lesser team....thus negating an amazing 4 days of MU basketball?
Just win baby!
This game ought to be a confidence builder. We shall see.
I thought admin would give Wojo 5-6 years. Was not worried about his seat. I kept saying that I saw progress and that I could see the road map. I thought this team was a little too small and unsound defensively to do what they have done this week. Hurrah for being wrong. I have said that I hadn't seen the alchemy yet from Wojo. I finally did last night. Taking a problem (Howard's lack of production, Rowsey's lack of size) and turning it into a virtue (going small and being able to basically switch all 5 guys) is a sign of growth and outside the box thinking that I have been waiting for. Switching defenses constantly and confusing Nova, if not actually stopping them, was a strategy I wouldn't have predicted a week ago. Well done, coach.
As a follow up, I said above I think our chances of dancing is 90% ..
This website (which is pretty cool) has our chances > 99.9%.
https://crashingthedance.com/teams/MARQET
Yesterday our seed was #9 .. today #7.
I am going to enjoy the victory for awhile and not worry about the overall status of the program. Truthfully, there definitely positives going on, notably the two freshmen, and gives cause for optimism. As usual, things were not as bad 18 days ago as some (me, included) thought and maybe not as rosy as it appears today.
All in all, very happy for the program for having a knock it out of the park week.
Hope dey just don't go now and chit der Hanes vs PC, hey?
Quote from: Goose on January 25, 2017, 02:52:38 PM
I am going to enjoy the victory for awhile and not worry about the overall status of the program. Truthfully, there definitely positives going on, notably the two freshmen, and gives cause for optimism. As usual, things were not as bad 18 days ago as some (me, included) thought and maybe not as rosy as it appears today.
All in all, very happy for the program for having a knock it out of the park week.
Goose, you shared with us that you and others were letting the administration know that your confidence in Wojo was pretty darned low. Has the recent progress (1) changed your mind, and if so, (2) are you providing different feedback to MU now?
Quote from: mu_hilltopper on January 25, 2017, 02:14:55 PM
As a follow up, I said above I think our chances of dancing is 90% ..
This website (which is pretty cool) has our chances > 99.9%.
https://crashingthedance.com/teams/MARQET
Yesterday our seed was #9 .. today #7.
99% is a little bold.
Considering we need 5 more wins to feel "locked in".
Quote from: mu_hilltopper on January 25, 2017, 10:54:40 AM
Not all negative reactions are "knee-jerky." 18 days ago, it wasn't one game or our record that was dark .. it was the over-all trend that MU didn't appear to be breaking out of, that of not being able to compete with the big boys.
That trend -- which appeared a solid supposition -- has been proven wrong.
I specifically said that I wasn't accusing you of being knee-jerky. We have plenty of those types in ScoopLand, however. Believe me, if we lose Saturday, all the yahoos who haven't bothered showing here the last week will be back in full force, insisting Wojo STILL doesn't have a "signature win."
I absolutely agree that things look brighter for this season now than they did 18 days ago. Heck, they look tons brighter than they did 8 days ago!
Quote from: PFsHeroes32 on January 26, 2017, 02:15:43 AM
99% is a little bold.
Considering we need 5 more wins to feel "locked in".
Have you seen our last 10 games? 5 wins
should be a no brainer if we are actually a tournament worthy team
Quote from: mu_hilltopper on January 25, 2017, 10:54:40 AM
Not all negative reactions are "knee-jerky." 18 days ago, it wasn't one game or our record that was dark .. it was the over-all trend that MU didn't appear to be breaking out of, that of not being able to compete with the big boys.
That trend -- which appeared a solid supposition -- has been proven wrong.
I guess I don't see what trend you were talking about. Even if we stopped before the Creighton game, by all measurements(in combination not singularly) this team is improving year over year.
Quote from: tower912 on January 25, 2017, 12:23:19 PM
I thought admin would give Wojo 5-6 years. Was not worried about his seat. I kept saying that I saw progress and that I could see the road map. I thought this team was a little too small and unsound defensively to do what they have done this week. Hurrah for being wrong. I have said that I hadn't seen the alchemy yet from Wojo. I finally did last night. Taking a problem (Howard's lack of production, Rowsey's lack of size) and turning it into a virtue (going small and being able to basically switch all 5 guys) is a sign of growth and outside the box thinking that I have been waiting for. Switching defenses constantly and confusing Nova, if not actually stopping them, was a strategy I wouldn't have predicted a week ago. Well done, coach.
The biggest change I saw from Wojo was pulling the right, unconventional move that triggered the comeback. The 1-3-1 was doing ok, but still struggled with Luke in there...however convention says you need Luke in there to get rebounds and score on the offensive end. Instead Wojo pulled Luke, went small/quick which improved our close outs in the 1-3-1 and allowed the offensive end to get mismatches with Katin on Nova's 5. Wright didn't adjust and MU got some breaks with some missed shots and we win.
It was coaching at it's finest, and if Wojo is going to be able to start making stuff like that work, we're in very good hands
Quote from: augoman on January 25, 2017, 11:19:13 AM
yes, we won. huge for us. Nova seemed complacent even as we chipped away at the 18 point deficit. Not to diminish the win, but we were overlooked. Seemed similar to the UConn win when they were #2. They never seemed to realize we had the momentum, were gaining on them, could win the game. Wright was magnanimous/Calhoun was furious. But I'm stating the obvious. Most interesting to me is the lineup we had in the game at the end!
Yeah so we won because Nova lost the game. Not because players performance and Wojo's coaching. Same when we gave up the leads the other teams didn't win we were just compacent got it! :o
Quote from: PFsHeroes32 on January 26, 2017, 02:15:43 AM
99% is a little bold.
Considering we need 5 more wins to feel "locked in".
Quote from: mu03eng on January 26, 2017, 07:45:16 AM
Have you seen our last 10 games? 5 wins should be a no brainer if we are actually a tournament worthy team
I'm guessing that the site that Hilltopper found was saying that MU's chances of making the NCAA was >99.9 if the field were selected at this point in time. Otherwise, it doesn't make sense.
Quote from: mu_hilltopper on January 25, 2017, 02:14:55 PM
As a follow up, I said above I think our chances of dancing is 90% ..
This website (which is pretty cool) has our chances > 99.9%.
https://crashingthedance.com/teams/MARQET
Yesterday our seed was #9 .. today #7.
With 6 minutes to go in the Nova game, Nova had a 99% chance of winning.
With 10 Leage games plus the Conference Tourney, saying we have a 99% chance is a bit risky
Quote from: IrwinFletcher on January 26, 2017, 05:31:56 PM
With 6 minutes to go in the Nova game, Nova had a 99% chance of winning.
With 10 Leage games plus the Conference Tourney, saying we have a 99% chance is a bit risky
How about this:
If we don't piss down our legs, we are in.
Quote from: buckchuckler on January 26, 2017, 05:34:07 PM
How about this:
If we don't piss down our legs, we are in.
That doesn't hold Water.
Quote from: mu03eng on January 26, 2017, 07:45:16 AM
Have you seen our last 10 games? 5 wins should be a no brainer if we are actually a tournament worthy team
Don't get me wrong I think we definitely get in.
But 99% means we basically cannot fail.
When you still need 5 wins against BE teams that isn't 99% lol
Quote from: 4everCrean on January 26, 2017, 05:13:33 PM
I'm guessing that the site that Hilltopper found was saying that MU's chances of making the NCAA was >99.9 if the field were selected at this point in time. Otherwise, it doesn't make sense.
Great point. That's gotta be it
Correct .. the site says it's 99.9% if Selection Sunday was today.
That being said .. with all the "expected RPI" calculations that can be made, one could throw that into the calcs to arrive at a probability, i.e., "if the team keeps playing the way the numbers say they should, then XX% is their probability."
Quote from: Loose Cannon on January 26, 2017, 05:55:45 PM
That doesn't hold Water.
You think our chance will leak away if we lose a few?
Quote from: TSmith34 on January 26, 2017, 09:21:19 PM
You think our chance will leak away if we lose a few?
You Win, I though it was only us dumb guys on this thread.
Quote from: mu_hilltopper on January 25, 2017, 09:26:48 AM
What a different landscape there is for MU basketball after 18 short days.
MU was 1-2 in the BE, we'd lost 5 of 6 to legit teams and facing another dozen legit games looked like a death spiral to another debate about maybe making the NIT.
I'd posted that I thought MU had a 30% chance this year, and a 50% chance next of making the NCAAs, and that seemed in the ballpark.
A respected poster (nameless) and I were texting .. he estimated a 60% chance Wojo wouldn't be our coach in 15 months, factoring in 4 seasons of no NCAAs that seemed a decent guess.
All that has changed. Our margin for error missing the dance this year has expanded dramatically, and I'd say we have a 90% chance of getting in, which also means that 60%-Wojo gone percentage drops to zero.
Let's go, Warriors.
So, you panicked at the bottom.
Just beat Providence on Saturday!
Quote from: mu03eng on January 26, 2017, 07:50:42 AM
The biggest change I saw from Wojo was pulling the right, unconventional move that triggered the comeback. The 1-3-1 was doing ok, but still struggled with Luke in there...however convention says you need Luke in there to get rebounds and score on the offensive end. Instead Wojo pulled Luke, went small/quick which improved our close outs in the 1-3-1 and allowed the offensive end to get mismatches with Katin on Nova's 5. Wright didn't adjust and MU got some breaks with some missed shots and we win.
It was coaching at it's finest, and if Wojo is going to be able to start making stuff like that work, we're in very good hands
That was really good wasn't it? Let's not forget Duane's contribution at the defensive point. He started the comeback by taking the charge. He had active hands and feet at the top of the zone. And Katin initiated the offense very successfully forcing the switch until he got onto the center and blew by him toward the rim. All super creative and situation specific.
Quote from: PFsHeroes32 on January 26, 2017, 05:57:53 PM
Don't get me wrong I think we definitely get in.
But 99% means we basically cannot fail.
When you still need 5 wins against BE teams that isn't 99% lol
Most sites have us around 80%. Seems about right to me.
Quote from: Yukon Cornelius on January 27, 2017, 01:50:51 AM
So, you panicked at the bottom.
At what turned out to be the bottom, yes. Didn't appear to be at the time.
The pivot was hanging 100 on the #8 team on the road and beating the #1 defending NC .. if you foresaw that, good on you.
Let's just win the Big East tourney and punch our own ticket...
Quote from: Holly Ellenson is my Mom on January 27, 2017, 08:26:03 AM
Let's just win the Big East tourney and punch our own ticket...
The landscape isn't THAT different.
We went from "will we make the NIT" to " What seed will we be in the NCAAs"