MUScoop

MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: MUBigDance on January 22, 2017, 08:27:10 AM

Title: Impact of a good Win
Post by: MUBigDance on January 22, 2017, 08:27:10 AM
ESPN RPI ... MU Jumped 72 to 54
KENPOM ... MU from 35 to 32

I know different sites calculate factors differently. These arent definitive but an example of where quality wins take us.

Calculators can't help but respect good wins but I wish the press would give us a little more love...after the game it was all about Watson and Creighton game planning. Maybe I missed the "MU has a powerful and efficient offense that can be scary". Did I just miss it?

But I know if we Beat NOVACorps then.,,"Boom goes the Dynamite".

Title: Re: Impact of a good Win
Post by: Jay Bee on January 22, 2017, 09:46:03 AM
There is no such thing as "ESPN RPI". There is only one RPI calculation - ESPN tries to calculate it themselves, but have a long history of doing so incorrectly.

Again today, their calcs are wrong.
Title: Re: Impact of a good Win
Post by: source? on January 22, 2017, 12:31:52 PM
I'll probably get some derision for using this site, but they are one of the ones the NCAA uses...UD Pride has us at 53.

EDIT: RPI forecast has us as an expected 52.2 RPI.
Title: Re: Impact of a good Win
Post by: Jay Bee on January 22, 2017, 01:21:14 PM
Quote from: source? on January 22, 2017, 12:31:52 PM
I'll probably get some derision for using this site, but they are one of the ones the NCAA uses...UD Pride has us at 53.

EDIT: RPI forecast has us as an expected 52.2 RPI.

Through yesterday's games, 53 is correct.
Title: Re: Impact of a good Win
Post by: MUBigDance on January 22, 2017, 10:49:37 PM
Quote from: Jay Bee on January 22, 2017, 09:46:03 AM
There is no such thing as "ESPN RPI". There is only one RPI calculation - ESPN tries to calculate it themselves, but have a long history of doing so incorrectly.

Again today, their calcs are wrong.

Who cares, not even the point of the post. It's not about who is the real RPI, it's the mathematical movement a good win causes in calculations that are RPI like and others.

Oh defenders of RPI purity. I don't care. 52 53 54 ....it dropped significantly.

I'll just call it "ESPN's page with the letters RPI at the top." There is such thing.
Title: Re: Impact of a good Win
Post by: brandx on January 22, 2017, 11:38:09 PM
Quote from: MUBigDance on January 22, 2017, 10:49:37 PM
Who cares, not even the point of the post. It's not about who is the real RPI, it's the mathematical movement a good win causes in calculations that are RPI like and others.

Oh defenders of RPI purity. I don't care. 52 53 54 ....it dropped significantly.

I'll just call it "ESPN's page with the letters RPI at the top." There is such thing.

The RPI Police are always out in force. Be very careful :-\
Title: Re: Impact of a good Win
Post by: MU82 on January 23, 2017, 05:31:34 AM
Just took another look at the schedule. At worst, we will come out of our difficult 8-game starting stretch with a 4-4 record. I think most of us would have taken that before Big East play started.

Of our remaining games after Nova, all 10 are absolutely winnable if we play as well as we did against Creighton and for most of both Seton Hall games. Go 7-3 in those - including no worse than 4-1 at home and also win 3 of 4 road games against DePaul, St. John's, Providence and GTown, and we surely will be dancing.

That's a tall order, of course. It presumes that we win at least 2 of X, Creighton and Butler at home. It also presumes winning perhaps twice against St. John's, which won't be easy, as well as getting other road victories. But it really is doable.

As for the media focusing on Creighton ... journalistically, that is the only correct call.

They were No. 7 in the nation. They had only lost once. They were playing their first game without their best player, who also happened to be the national assist leader and an All-American candidate. Nationally, we were just another team, with nary a victory over a ranked team going in.

We have to EARN the right to be the focus. Winning tomorrow night would be a great way to do it!
Title: Re: Impact of a good Win
Post by: Jay Bee on January 23, 2017, 07:13:26 AM
Quote from: MUBigDance on January 22, 2017, 10:49:37 PM
Who cares, not even the point of the post. It's not about who is the real RPI, it's the mathematical movement a good win causes in calculations that are RPI like and others.

Oh defenders of RPI purity. I don't care. 52 53 54 ....it dropped significantly.

I'll just call it "ESPN's page with the letters RPI at the top." There is such thing.

Remember, it's not just the win that causes the movement. 75% of the calc essentially doesn't care if we won or lost, and can actually improve if we lose.

Title: Re: Impact of a good Win
Post by: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on January 23, 2017, 08:11:48 AM
Quote from: MU82 on January 23, 2017, 05:31:34 AM
Just took another look at the schedule. At worst, we will come out of our difficult 8-game starting stretch with a 4-4 record. I think most of us would have taken that before Big East play started.

Of our remaining games after Nova, all 10 are absolutely winnable if we play as well as we did against Creighton and for most of both Seton Hall games. Go 7-3 in those - including no worse than 4-1 at home and also win 3 of 4 road games against DePaul, St. John's, Providence and GTown, and we surely will be dancing.

That's a tall order, of course. It presumes that we win at least 2 of X, Creighton and Butler at home. It also presumes winning perhaps twice against St. John's, which won't be easy, as well as getting other road victories. But it really is doable.

As for the media focusing on Creighton ... journalistically, that is the only correct call.

They were No. 7 in the nation. They had only lost once. They were playing their first game without their best player, who also happened to be the national assist leader and an All-American candidate. Nationally, we were just another team, with nary a victory over a ranked team going in.

We have to EARN the right to be the focus. Winning tomorrow night would be a great way to do it!

6-4 will do. This team isn't getting left out at 10-8.
Title: Re: Impact of a good Win
Post by: jsglow on January 23, 2017, 08:41:07 AM
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on January 23, 2017, 08:11:48 AM
6-4 will do. This team isn't getting left out at 10-8.

Agreed.
Title: Re: Impact of a good Win
Post by: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on January 23, 2017, 09:27:30 AM
Quote from: jsglow on January 23, 2017, 08:41:07 AM
Agreed.

I think 11-7 puts us in like 6/7 seed territory.
Title: Re: Impact of a good Win
Post by: Jay Bee on January 23, 2017, 10:40:57 AM
Quote from: MUBigDance on January 22, 2017, 10:49:37 PM
Who cares, not even the point of the post. It's not about who is the real RPI, it's the mathematical movement a good win causes in calculations that are RPI like and others.

Half of the movement was not related to winning
Title: Re: Impact of a good Win
Post by: Nukem2 on January 23, 2017, 10:47:51 AM
Quote from: Jay Bee on January 23, 2017, 10:40:57 AM
Half of the movement was not related to winning
The opponent and the road had a lot to do with it with some marginal help from past opponents.
Title: Re: Impact of a good Win
Post by: Jay Bee on January 23, 2017, 10:59:04 AM
Quote from: Nukem2 on January 23, 2017, 10:47:51 AM
The opponent and the road had a lot to do with it with some marginal help from past opponents.

Being on the road is in included in my winning comment (1.4 wins)... but, yes.  Big impact from playing a team that still only has one loss in the 50% AWP calc is significant
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