Worst Pomeroy defensive performance in MU's modern day history with a Drate at 143.6. With Dean-o and Kevin, pretty sure this is the worst defensive ass whoopin' in many generations. Last two games before Nova gave me hope the boys were being coached up. But the virus returned.
Even with Nova holding off in garbage time, the 79.6 eFG% is astounding. Defense starts with effort and I saw three underclassmen showing it tonight.
It was terrible defense.
But it was also an offense that made top 10 teams look like an absolute joke for the entire NCAA Tournament last year. Their offense reminded me so much of last year's Tournament run. Great ball movement, great ball fakes, open shots (some having to do with poor defense, others with great offense).
This is where Luke hurts u the most. Look at how many drives Luke is standing cemented footed n completely out of position. He may be the worst defensive player i have ever seen at Marquette
Quote from: Mr. Sand-Knit on January 07, 2017, 09:17:57 PM
This is where Luke hurts u the most. Look at how many drives Luke is standing cemented footed n completely out of position. He may be the worst defensive player i have ever seen at Marquette
Watch closer. He's not even all that close to being the worst defensive player currently on the roster.
Sorry, but he is... other guys are trying to close out open shots created because Luke is miles out of position.
The defense's problem is on the perimeter. JJJ is OK, but takes too many risks. Duane is hurt and when JJJ got in foul trouble, they had to put both Howard and Rowsey on the floor at the same time. Not good.
Someone said it earlier (wades?), but this is a game where we could have used Traci or Sandy on the perimeter.
There are two things that really bother me about our defense and both relate to very very simple fundamentals.
1. Defensive stance. Our players (and JJJ is the worst) are rarely in a proper defensive stance. Look at a Nova' player on D (stance wise) compared to our guys. Their players have proper stance and because of that, they can keep their man in front of them and make penetration difficult. Our guys, are on their heels (not on their toes) and often are leaning forward awkwardly by bending at the back and refusing to bend the knees. Balance wise you have no way to have any lateral quickness in their position...its the stance you see out of shape old men use at the gym, because they are tired.
2. Help positioning/defense. There is a simple premise of keeping yourself between the ball, your man and the basket, where you sag into the middle to make penetration difficult. Key to this is knowing where your guy is and how quickly you can get back to them. Our guys either are not in the proper help position, lose track of their guy by watching the ball, or sag so far off they can never recover giving an open 3 if the ball swings...sometimes they are guilty of all three.
The reason these bother me so much is they are things you learn before you are old enough to get the ball over the rim of a 10-foot hoop, but it seems like our guys have never heard of these concepts.
Quote from: Dr. Vinnie Boombatz on January 07, 2017, 09:26:21 PM
The defense's problem is on the perimeter. JJJ is OK, but takes too many risks. Duane is hurt and when JJJ got in foul trouble, they had to put both Howard and Rowsey on the floor at the same time. Not good.
Someone said it earlier (wades?), but this is a game where we could have used Traci or Sandy on the perimeter.
I disagree and BeeJay laid out these stats earlier in the season. MU was again eviscerated in the paint where Wright went right at us, and broke us down with spacing and movement from there. With Luke and his lack of athletic ability, this is a zone team like Wojo's first year (and his best defensive season). We were hammered in the paint tonight. Defenses are built from the inside out, especially in college. Nova was 17-23 in the paint tonight, with an additional 15 free throws made.
Why Luke is chasing Brunson is beyond me.
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on January 07, 2017, 09:49:34 PM
I disagree and BeeJay laid out these stats earlier in the season. MU was again eviscerated in the paint where Wright went right at us, and broke us down with spacing and movement from there. With Luke and his lack of athletic ability, this is a zone team like Wojo's first year (and his best defensive season). We were hammered in the paint tonight. Defenses are built from the inside out, especially in college. Nova was 17-23 in the paint tonight, with an additional 15 free throws made.
Why Luke is chasing Brunson is beyond me.
But the breakdown usually starts on the perimeter.
Quote from: Dr. Vinnie Boombatz on January 07, 2017, 09:55:46 PM
But the breakdown usually starts on the perimeter.
So if they were taller this would stop?
Quote from: Dr. Vinnie Boombatz on January 07, 2017, 09:55:46 PM
But the breakdown usually starts on the perimeter.
Nova started by attacking the paint all game, then the kick out and ball rotations.
Luke has won the Mannequin Challenge in five games this year. Cannot guard anyone under the age of 80.
Wojo agrees...calls out team as "non-competitive"...per Matty V.
http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/college/marquette/2017/01/07/villanova-93-mu-81-defense-no-show/96181250/
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on January 07, 2017, 10:13:38 PM
Nova started by attacking the paint all game, then the kick out and ball rotations.
Usually when it broke down on the perimeter first.
I think there are problems inside and outside. Our guards are not great at on ball containment. Luke has no lateral quickness or toughness. Not a good combo. Cheatham is an above average defender. Howard and Hauser look like they might develop into above average defenders. Others...not so much.
Quote from: Mr. Sand-Knit on January 07, 2017, 09:17:57 PM
This is where Luke hurts u the most. Look at how many drives Luke is standing cemented footed n completely out of position. He may be the worst defensive player i have ever seen at Marquette
You are correct sir. In addition, when Luke is out of position others have to sag & help which leaves opponents wide open at the 3 pt line. When your center and rim protector repeatedly leaves his man and is chasing guards from the top of the key to the base line time after time, game after game, nothing good is going to happen.
We lost a game at home last year or the year before (I think maybe Creighton or X) when Luke was chasing a guard down the lane to a game-winning layup.
DePaul. Garrett driving the length of the floor, pick, Luke ended up guarding him poorly and fouling him.
Correct. Thanks, Tower.
For years I've been thinking "Geez, I wish we could make 3's like these other guys." Now we can, and I still get left with the feeling I had watching UNC-Ky (and last night) that we are so, so far away from what a really good team is.
Quote from: forgetful on January 07, 2017, 09:27:07 PM
There are two things that really bother me about our defense and both relate to very very simple fundamentals.
1. Defensive stance. Our players (and JJJ is the worst) are rarely in a proper defensive stance. Look at a Nova' player on D (stance wise) compared to our guys. Their players have proper stance and because of that, they can keep their man in front of them and make penetration difficult. Our guys, are on their heels (not on their toes) and often are leaning forward awkwardly by bending at the back and refusing to bend the knees. Balance wise you have no way to have any lateral quickness in their position...its the stance you see out of shape old men use at the gym, because they are tired.
2. Help positioning/defense. There is a simple premise of keeping yourself between the ball, your man and the basket, where you sag into the middle to make penetration difficult. Key to this is knowing where your guy is and how quickly you can get back to them. Our guys either are not in the proper help position, lose track of their guy by watching the ball, or sag so far off they can never recover giving an open 3 if the ball swings...sometimes they are guilty of all three.
The reason these bother me so much is they are things you learn before you are old enough to get the ball over the rim of a 10-foot hoop, but it seems like our guys have never heard of these concepts.
Amen brother. I have been seeing this for 2 years. Their closeouts are nowhere near the college level either. Not saying luke is a great defender but he is far from the worst and is not the cause of most of the problems.
The cause of the symptoms that you describe is what's so disturbing to me...
Terrible D? Poor stance? Improper positioning?
We should get a coach that was the defensive player of the year when he played!
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on January 07, 2017, 11:10:27 PM
I think there are problems inside and outside. Our guards are not great at on ball containment. Luke has no lateral quickness or toughness. Not a good combo. Cheatham is an above average defender. Howard and Hauser look like they might develop into above average defenders. Others...not so much.
Yeah I think this is a very good summary. The guards don't rotate or close out well, and when JJJ goes out and Duane is injured, we lose so much length.
Not that it would have mattered in terms of a win or loss, but this game was the first time I felt that our lack of depth really hurt us. It would have been nice to put Traci or Sandy on the perimeter when JJJ went out with foul trouble.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on January 07, 2017, 11:10:27 PM
I think there are problems inside and outside. Our guards are not great at on ball containment. Luke has no lateral quickness or toughness. Not a good combo. Cheatham is an above average defender. Howard and Hauser look like they might develop into above average defenders. Others...not so much.
+1. Simply put, the talent screams zone against a team like Nova. I keep hearing "but the opponents will be open for treys and we will give up rebounds in a zone". Guess what? We get broken down badly in man so our opponents hit treys and rebound any way...and then they also shoot 70%+ in the paint as we are out chasing the perimeter with our slow footed center.
Now, let's be clear: Nova was going to beat us anyway...and I think Jay Wright is one of the best offensive minds in the game, but MU's current roster talent does not match the Duke scheme defensively. It is clear from the article Wojo will be doing some soul searching. It will be interesting to see what Weds. brings although I thought we had a good game plan vs. Hall the first time.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on January 07, 2017, 11:10:27 PM
I think there are problems inside and outside. Our guards are not great at on ball containment. Luke has no lateral quickness or toughness. Not a good combo. Cheatham is an above average defender. Howard and Hauser look like they might develop into above average defenders. Others...not so much.
We don't have as much length as we need on the perimeter or inside and our veterans aren't great defenders.
Yet at the same time, our best defenders are underclassmen and we have more length coming starting next year. It really seems like the staff is doing everything they can to shore up the issues. The long-term goal is obviously to play man. Going zone wouldn't have helped against a team that shot 60.9% beyond the arc. It may have slowed the game down, but at 65 possessions, yesterday was the slowest game we played all year, so I don't see how that would have helped.
There weren't a lot of positives from yesterday. We all know that. But sometimes you're the dog and sometimes you're the hydrant. Time to dust ourselves off and get back to being the dog on Wednesday.
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 08, 2017, 10:31:18 AM
We don't have as much length as we need on the perimeter or inside and our veterans aren't great defenders.
Yet at the same time, our best defenders are underclassmen and we have more length coming starting next year. It really seems like the staff is doing everything they can to shore up the issues. The long-term goal is obviously to play man. Going zone wouldn't have helped against a team that shot 60.9% beyond the arc. It may have slowed the game down, but at 65 possessions, yesterday was the slowest game we played all year, so I don't see how that would have helped.
There weren't a lot of positives from yesterday. We all know that. But sometimes you're the dog and sometimes you're the hydrant. Time to dust ourselves off and get back to being the dog on Wednesday.
MU lost this game in the paint on lay ups which has been indicative of earlier season and past season defensive issues with this roster make up. MU and Nova hit the same amount of treys and free throws (MU had a great offensive game which has not been mentioned). They didn't lose it on treys. A coach has two choices against Nova: push the perimeter or pack the paint. You have to stop one while giving up the other by picking your poison. MU stopped neither obviously with the worst statistically defensive game in modern history.
Play a zone or pack line defense with the talent of Nova. I don't think MU can spend enough time on a pack line so you have go zone. Fox doesn't provide replays, but this highlight film shows pretty well how Wright first had Nova atttack the paint to score or break down the defense (think paint touches).
https://youtu.be/khojMH5sMfA
Shot Map:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/playbyplay?gameId=400919673
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on January 08, 2017, 11:25:47 AM
Play a zone or pack line defense with the talent of Nova. I don't think MU can spend enough time on a pack line so you have go zone. Fox doesn't provide replays, but this highlight film shows pretty well how Wright first had Nova atttack the paint to score or break down the defense (think paint touches).
https://youtu.be/khojMH5sMfA
Thanks for posting this - I looked up pack line because I was not familiar and this video of Bennett's UVA team came up (clearly challenging to implement mid-season). I watched them earlier this year and their D was really fun to watch -- just didnt know what I was watching at the time!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xicOzvbB6A (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xicOzvbB6A)
Quote from: tower912 on January 08, 2017, 06:46:53 AM
DePaul. Garrett driving the length of the floor, pick, Luke ended up guarding him poorly and fouling him.
Dammit tower. I had almost successfully blocked that out of my mind.
Our guards do not do a good job of dribble contain. I have been saying for 6 months, when it became clear that MU was not picking up more bigs, that size was going to matter. That other teams were going to pick and roll with Luke's man, pulling him away from the basket. It is offensive basketball 101. If MU had the personnel that allowed Luke to stay in the paint as a help defender, he would be much more effective. In space, he simply isn't and won't be.
When one of our 6'5 guys gets posted up, the double team comes. It has to. If it is Luke helping, then another 6'5 defender is now sliding down to guard the opposing big. If he is one step late or one step out of perfect position, simply because of size the big catches the pass and lays it in. Size matters.
If it is another 6'5 guy (or smaller) doubling the post, if the offensive player passes back out and the opposing team can move the ball at all, it turns into a game of musical chairs trying to run the next guy off the line by somebody closing out from 15 feet away. This inevitably leads to an open 3 or a lay up. Sometimes with Luke flying at the shooter in the opposite corner. So if the corner jumper is missed, MU has Sam, and then no one bigger than 6'5, going for a rebound. Offensive basketball 102.
Bottom line, I think Wojo CAN coach defense. I think this roster is poorly constructed to be a good defensive team. But we should have realized this going in. And, being down to 8 healthy players sure doesn't help. But size is on the way.
I like Howard.
That's about all I got. :-\
Quote from: Frenns Liquor Depot on January 08, 2017, 11:44:12 AM
Thanks for posting this - I looked up pack line because I was not familiar and this video of Bennett's UVA team came up (clearly challenging to implement mid-season). I watched them earlier this year and their D was really fun to watch -- just didnt know what I was watching at the time!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xicOzvbB6A (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xicOzvbB6A)
Important note. The limitation of the Pack line defense is that it will lead to open 3 pt attempts. Given that most of the game, Nova was hitting them at near a 70% clip, because our defense was also giving open 3 pt attempts, we would have still lost by at least 12. Nova would have beaten Virginia badly last night, because of how well they were shooting.
Also, the pack line defense is predicated upon physical play, arm bars, bodying the ball handler etc. With the tight whistles last night, that would be a problem, especially with a short bench and the lack of a physical post player.
Our defense was bad, but Nova' played on fire.
Quote from: tower912 on January 08, 2017, 01:48:01 PM
Our guards do not do a good job of dribble contain. I have been saying for 6 months, when it became clear that MU was not picking up more bigs, that size was going to matter. That other teams were going to pick and roll with Luke's man, pulling him away from the basket. It is offensive basketball 101. If MU had the personnel that allowed Luke to stay in the paint as a help defender, he would be much more effective. In space, he simply isn't and won't be.
When one of our 6'5 guys gets posted up, the double team comes. It has to. If it is Luke helping, then another 6'5 defender is now sliding down to guard the opposing big. If he is one step late or one step out of perfect position, simply because of size the big catches the pass and lays it in. Size matters.
If it is another 6'5 guy (or smaller) doubling the post, if the offensive player passes back out and the opposing team can move the ball at all, it turns into a game of musical chairs trying to run the next guy off the line by somebody closing out from 15 feet away. This inevitably leads to an open 3 or a lay up. Sometimes with Luke flying at the shooter in the opposite corner. So if the corner jumper is missed, MU has Sam, and then no one bigger than 6'5, going for a rebound. Offensive basketball 102.
Bottom line, I think Wojo CAN coach defense. I think this roster is poorly constructed to be a good defensive team. But we should have realized this going in. And, being down to 8 healthy players sure doesn't help. But size is on the way.
I minimized the lack of height before the season. I know see what you saw.
Quote from: forgetful on January 08, 2017, 02:15:00 PM
Important note. The limitation of the Pack line defense is that it will lead to open 3 pt attempts. Given that most of the game, Nova was hitting them at near a 70% clip, because our defense was also giving open 3 pt attempts, we would have still lost by at least 12. Nova would have beaten Virginia badly last night, because of how well they were shooting.
Also, the pack line defense is predicated upon physical play, arm bars, bodying the ball handler etc. With the tight whistles last night, that would be a problem, especially with a short bench and the lack of a physical post player.
Our defense was bad, but Nova' played on fire.
This is not true. The pack line ALWAYS has pressure on the ball. The 4 remaining defenders however stay within the "pack line". An imaginary line usually about 2 feet inside the 3 put arc.
Quote from: Let's Go Warriors on January 08, 2017, 02:33:31 PM
This is not true. The pack line ALWAYS has pressure on the ball. The 4 remaining defenders however stay within the "pack line". An imaginary line usually about 2 feet inside the 3 put arc.
Not sure what is not true. I never said they don't put pressure on the ball. I said the limitation is that it typically leads to open 3 pt attempts as it's goal is to not allow anything in the paint and to force the team from beating you from 3. That is the whole premise of the pack line defense. Typically you keep yourself equidistant from your man and the ball, positioning yourself to deny access to the paint.
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on January 08, 2017, 11:25:47 AM
MU lost this game in the paint on lay ups which has been indicative of earlier season and past season defensive issues with this roster make up. MU and Nova hit the same amount of treys and free throws (MU had a great offensive game which has not been mentioned). They didn't lose it on treys. A coach has two choices against Nova: push the perimeter or pack the paint. You have to stop one while giving up the other by picking your poison. MU stopped neither obviously with the worst statistically defensive game in modern history.
Play a zone or pack line defense with the talent of Nova. I don't think MU can spend enough time on a pack line so you have go zone. Fox doesn't provide replays, but this highlight film shows pretty well how Wright first had Nova atttack the paint to score or break down the defense (think paint touches).
https://youtu.be/khojMH5sMfA
Shot Map:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/playbyplay?gameId=400919673
(Apologies in advance, this was written over the course of the past 5 hours in between work, so lots of disjointed thoughts)
Like you said, we weren't beating them yesterday. Watching those highlights, a few things stood out. First, they killed us in transition. They were just quicker, so those transition layups allowed quicker guys to get inside quickly. They beat us with picks. When we tried to bring a double outside, they would pick the double (Sam got caught at least twice) which allowed their guy to drive past our smaller defenders.
Zone may have kept them out of the paint, but they killed us outside, and our lack of length makes us less than ideal for a zone. I also think it would have slowed the game and thus slowed our offense and ability to score in transition. And while it was inside-out game that beat us, the 60% beyond the arc would have killed us no matter what we did. The roster makeup is a problem, but one that's being addressed. If we end up landing Froling, that's 4 more players coming in between 6'7" and 6'11" that will be eligible next season. When you look at Syracuse, virtually everyone in their rotation is 6'6" or taller.
As far as Luke, I'm curious why his shot-blocking has regressed. Are teams just driving away from him, reducing his ability to impact shots? It has dropped each of the past two years, and now despite being 100% healthy he is less of a shot-blocking threat than he ever was. Regardless, we need more length inside. Sam is a 3 trying to play the 4. We need more length, but won't have it until next year.
The offensive performance yesterday was the best against Villanova this year. No offense has been more efficient against them than we were yesterday; the last time a team had a better PPP against 'Nova was Virginia on Dec. 19, 2015. Zone is going to slow the pace and reduce our ability to get buckets in transition. I think one of our biggest problems with zone is we don't have the length for that. Teams like Syracuse thrive in zone because they have long, athletic defenders who can disrupt passing lanes. JJ and Haanif would be small in their system, not to mention guys like Howard and Rowsey.
Was just watching the defensive possessions against Nova to see where we ran into problems. Contrary to what my initial thoughts were, and what some others have suggested, the problem is not our guards being beat off the dribble.
The problem stems from two things. The biggest one deals with the question of how do you defend the high ball screen.
We are currently using our big to hedge the screen and then have the defender on the opposite side sagging all the way to under the hoop to stop the pick and dive. This leads to several problems regarding Luke on defense.
1. Luke (at least against Nova) was unbelievably bad at hedging. He either didn't step out enough to stop the defender and would then just be beat off the dribble, or he hedged on the wrong side of the screen (and called the pick on the wrong side) allowing the ball handler to just drive the lane.
2. Luke is always out of position, he is so concerned about hedging the screen that he follows his man everywhere around the perimeter and is never under the hoop where the big would defend.
I say this is a problem of Luke, and not the system, because when Luke was out in the first half and we ran the defense first with Heldt and then with Hauser, all these problems were gone and we had 3 good defensive possessions.
3. Luke is very very slow in getting back to the picker, either letting them drill a 3 (Jenkins end of first half), or forcing the help defender to stay under the hoop too long. The latter leads to a complete defensive breakdown and is where I remember our guys getting beat off the dribble so bad.
Nova did a great job of, after the ball screen, swinging the ball to the player left open by the help defender being under the hoop, due to slow rotation. The delay in rotation leaves the help defender scrambling to close, either giving an open 3, or being unable to get into defensive position to stop the dribble drive and defensive breakdown.
Really great offensive scheme by Nova. The question is how does MU counter it, options:
A. Go to a zone. They did this, but it was poorly executed. In the limited possessions in the Nova game it was clear that JJJ doesn't know his proper assignments/positioning in a zone. We need JJJ on the floor so, unless he understands it better, no zone.
B. Change how we defend the ball screen. This is what we likely need to do. Luke is not athletic enough to hedge. Switch to an ICE technique or Push and Cover (really about the same thing). The Bulls under Thibodeau perfected this.
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on January 08, 2017, 11:25:47 AM
MU lost this game in the paint on lay ups which has been indicative of earlier season and past season defensive issues with this roster make up. MU and Nova hit the same amount of treys and free throws (MU had a great offensive game which has not been mentioned). They didn't lose it on treys. A coach has two choices against Nova: push the perimeter or pack the paint. You have to stop one while giving up the other by picking your poison. MU stopped neither obviously with the worst statistically defensive game in modern history.
Play a zone or pack line defense with the talent of Nova. I don't think MU can spend enough time on a pack line so you have go zone. Fox doesn't provide replays, but this highlight film shows pretty well how Wright first had Nova atttack the paint to score or break down the defense (think paint touches).
https://youtu.be/khojMH5sMfA
Shot Map:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/playbyplay?gameId=400919673
The play you show is interesting. It highlights confusion on how to defend the high ball screen. Luke went to hedge; Howard went to push and cover...both defenders then end up on the same side of the ball handler/screener and a wide open lane.
Or, Luke called the pick being on the wrong side (he did that in other cases during the game).
Either way, the problem is in how to defend the pick and roll.
I think one of the problems is that in Luke, we have a center who is very well suited for a zone, but our perimeter players don't have the length for it. Guys like Howard, Rowsey, and Duane don't have the length for it. JJ and Cheatham are the only two that might have the length and quickness, but even still they'd be better suited with another 2-3 inches of height.
I'm guessing that Luke's shot-blocking largely came out of the zone. Funnel shooters to him, allow him to stay at home, he blocks a ton of shots (3+ blocks in 12 games as a sophomore, but only 7 times in his junior and senior seasons). But we won't be able to disrupt passing lanes without length, won't create turnovers, won't be able to push the pace like we do, it will take us out of almost everything we do on offense.
Quote from: forgetful on January 08, 2017, 03:13:35 PM
The play you show is interesting. It highlights confusion on how to defend the high ball screen. Luke went to hedge; Howard went to push and cover...both defenders then end up on the same side of the ball handler/screener and a wide open lane.
Or, Luke called the pick being on the wrong side (he did that in other cases during the game).
Either way, the problem is in how to defend the pick and roll.
Good discussion here. What I noticed too was Nova was goading Luke and then advancing the ball based on his reaction. Definitely in the game plan. Probe and press the advantage.
Defense has kept GB in the game, hey?
Quote from: forgetful on January 08, 2017, 02:46:46 PM
Not sure what is not true. I never said they don't put pressure on the ball. I said the limitation is that it typically leads to open 3 pt attempts as it's goal is to not allow anything in the paint and to force the team from beating you from 3. That is the whole premise of the pack line defense. Typically you keep yourself equidistant from your man and the ball, positioning yourself to deny access to the paint.
I've coached the pack line and I believe you r wrong. The idea is to be in a help position before a man can even attempt to drive and to always be ready to close out to ur man and not allow any uncontested shots. Always pressure the ball thus not allowing open 3s. More likely pull up 15-18 footers.
Quote from: 4everwarriors on January 08, 2017, 05:14:51 PM
Defense has kept GB in the game, hey?
Wojo should talk to Dom Capers, hey?
Quote from: Let's Go Warriors on January 08, 2017, 05:20:27 PM
I've coached the pack line and I believe you r wrong. The idea is to be in a help position before a man can even attempt to drive and to always be ready to close out to ur man and not allow any uncontested shots. Always pressure the ball thus not allowing open 3s. More likely pull up 15-18 footers.
I think you are both saying the same thing, but you are assuming that you ALWAYS close out successfully and forgetful is assuming the close outs aren't necessarily going to happen 100% of the time, resulting in uncontested 3's.
Pack line relies heavily on close outs, and if you're assuming they're always closing out well then you're correct that 3's will be hard to come by.