MUScoop

I think a really good win on our resume would be nice. We know RPI can change but this is how they are ranked as of typing this on ESPN. so which do you believe we will, not can, beat.  I think we will beat Creighton and X and Hall at home and will steal at butler on the road. But I have been high on this team from the beginning of the season.

I think we can beat all those teams at home except Nova, but then again, MU would have beaten Nova last night.

Stealing at SHU Sunday would be huge, especially with a date with Nova next week.

I think we'll get one off Xavier. Might get more than that, but they are the one I'm most confident about.

Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on December 29, 2016, 05:41:47 PM
I think we can beat all those teams at home except Nova, but then again, MU would have beaten Nova on the road last night.

Stealing at SHU Sunday would be huge, especially with a date with Nova next week.

If I had to pick a most likely team I would say Butler and SHU.

Why can't we pick more than one?  This is a very poorly conceived poll.

Quote from: warriorchick on December 29, 2016, 05:59:56 PMWhy can't we pick more than one?  This is a very poorly conceived poll.

I thought of the question as, "Which RPI top 25 team do you think we have the best chance of beating?" Could be any one of them, in my opinion.

My pick is Butler. Creighton seems like a better version of ourselves — high tempo, high scoring and not so good defensively — led by an experienced coach. Xavier's played in plenty of high-pressure games and I expect them to get better as the season goes on.

We split with Butler last season, and I'm just not buying they're that much better than us.

Creighton is the toughest match up for us. SHU also poses problems.

Would be surprised if we beat Creighton.

I think we will get one vs Butler. Confident we can vs X.

Got a shot vs Nova

Quote from: warriorchick on December 29, 2016, 05:59:56 PM
Why can't we pick more than one?  This is a very poorly conceived poll.

I'm bad at making polls  :'(

I'm still the only cat that picked nova? Surprising.

Mark it down boys, they'll get it done.

No stats to back it up, just a feeling.

Quote from: GWSwarrior on December 29, 2016, 08:22:47 PM
I'm bad at making polls  :'(

Just edit it so that you are allowed up to 5 choices.  No big.   :)

Quote from: JD on December 29, 2016, 08:30:07 PM
I'm still the only cat that picked nova? Surprising.

Mark it down boys, they'll get it done.

No stats to back it up, just a feeling.

Not saying we will beat them

But I still find it nuts that they are the ones people keep saying we have no shot against.

Creighton and SHU are tougher personnel match ups. SHU isn't nearly as talented as Nova tho

Quote from: GWSwarrior on December 29, 2016, 05:34:02 PM
I think a really good win on our resume would be nice. We know RPI can change but this is how they are ranked as of typing this on ESPN. so which do you believe we will, not can, beat.  I think we will beat Creighton and X and Hall at home and will steal at butler on the road. But I have been high on this team from the beginning of the season.

Just for clarity...
- there is no such thing as "ESPN RPI"... only one RPI. ESPN published their calcs, but often effs it up. Seton Hall. Through yesterday's games, Seton Hall was 33.
- The RPI in Dec is not a good projection of RPI for the year. Seton Hall is a prime example. They don't project even into the top 50

Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on December 29, 2016, 05:41:47 PM
I think we can beat all those teams at home except Nova, but then again, MU would have beaten Nova last night.

There is no way to know if MU would or could have beaten nova last night. I think they will be a little more prepared and ready when they play us.

St Johns just beat Butler so its certainly do-able

All of 'em.

Quote from: NotAnAlum on December 29, 2016, 10:35:02 PM
St Johns just beat Butler so its certainly do-able

The BE is becoming a cliche "any given team, any given day" type conference. Geesus.

Quote from: Jay Bee on December 29, 2016, 08:54:09 PM
Just for clarity...
- there is no such thing as "ESPN RPI"... only one RPI. ESPN published their calcs, but often effs it up. Seton Hall. Through yesterday's games, Seton Hall was 33.
- The RPI in Dec is not a good projection of RPI for the year. Seton Hall is a prime example. They don't project even into the top 50

Nice troll job.

Quote from: GWSwarrior on December 30, 2016, 09:49:37 AM
Nice troll job.

JayBee often comes off as snarky/smug, but is completely correct/not trolling here.

Use RPI forecast at this point in the season, not current RPI. Unbalanced schedules across the nation combined with small sample sizes make it a nearly irrelevant stat.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html

Now for my own editorializing. RPI sucks. 5 losses by 1 point each puts you in the same boat as a team that lost to those exact 5 teams by 15-20 points apiece (assuming all home/away scenarios identical).

Use kenpom & sagarin to get a good gauge of an opponent's quality, rpiforecast if you must, but almost never use current RPI until the full body of work has been submitted on Selection Sunday (and even then it mostly sucks).

Quote from: Ellenson Family Reunion on December 30, 2016, 09:59:38 AM
JayBee often comes off as snarky/smug, but is completely correct/not trolling here.

Use RPI forecast at this point in the season, not current RPI. Unbalanced schedules across the nation combined with small sample sizes make it a nearly irrelevant stat.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html

Now for my own editorializing. RPI sucks. 5 losses by 1 point each puts you in the same boat as a team that lost to those exact 5 teams by 15-20 points apiece (assuming all home/away scenarios identical).

Use kenpom & sagarin to get a good gauge of an opponent's quality, rpiforecast if you must, but almost never use current RPI until the full body of work has been submitted on Selection Sunday (and even then it mostly sucks).

If he didn't read the first post in the thread then I would agree with you it wasn't a troll job. However, my first post states RPI changes and that this is what the rankings are as of typing and then cites ESPN as the source of information. By clarifying something that was already clear he trolled

Quote from: Ellenson Family Reunion on December 30, 2016, 09:59:38 AM
JayBee often comes off as snarky/smug, but is completely correct/not trolling here.

Use RPI forecast at this point in the season, not current RPI. Unbalanced schedules across the nation combined with small sample sizes make it a nearly irrelevant stat.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html

Now for my own editorializing. RPI sucks. 5 losses by 1 point each puts you in the same boat as a team that lost to those exact 5 teams by 15-20 points apiece (assuming all home/away scenarios identical).

Use kenpom & sagarin to get a good gauge of an opponent's quality, rpiforecast if you must, but almost never use current RPI until the full body of work has been submitted on Selection Sunday (and even then it mostly sucks).

I tend to agree. Unfortunately, I'm not sure the selection committee finds RPI to be as sucky as we do, nor am I convinced they weigh kenpom, sagarin or anything else close to RPI when determining selections.

Quote from: Jay Bee on December 29, 2016, 08:54:09 PM
Just for clarity...
- there is no such thing as "ESPN RPI"... only one RPI. ESPN published their calcs, but often effs it up. Seton Hall. Through yesterday's games, Seton Hall was 33.
- The RPI in Dec is not a good projection of RPI for the year. Seton Hall is a prime example. They don't project even into the top 50

Quote from: GWSwarrior on December 30, 2016, 09:49:37 AM
Nice troll job.

Disagreeing with someone, particularly when you can back it up is not trolling, its just stating one's own point of view.  Name calling because you've been corrected, on the other hand, .....


It isn't like he even called you out.  Didn't he start out with "Just to clarify"  That's a lot milder then how some posters would have started out.

To use a Scoop meme; "Lighten up Francis."

Quote from: GWSwarrior on December 30, 2016, 10:06:00 AM
If he didn't read the first post in the thread then I would agree with you it wasn't a troll job. However, my first post states RPI changes and that this is what the rankings are as of typing and then cites ESPN as the source of information. By clarifying something that was already clear he trolled

Okay, but if you'd like to use something better than current RPI, there is kenpom, sagarin, and rpiforecast. If you like RPI, use rpiforecast. It's an awesome website!

Quote from: Ellenson Family Reunion on December 30, 2016, 10:17:37 AM
Okay, but if you'd like to use something better than current RPI, there is kenpom, sagarin, and rpiforecast. If you like RPI, use rpiforecast. It's an awesome website!

RPIforcast is an awesome website, there are already posts regarding Kenpom and sagarin.  I wanted to use the current RPI not a projection of what maybe at the end of the season. 

I initially picked Creighton but after looking at the schedule I'd switch to Xavier at home on Feb. 18 as our best shot. We'll have a full week to prepare, and the gravity of the win's importance re: tourney resume will be much clearer to the team at that point (heightened sense of urgency). Plus I'll be in the house for that one so that should push them over the edge.

Quote from: GWSwarrior on December 30, 2016, 10:20:20 AM
RPIforcast is an awesome website, there are already posts regarding Kenpom and sagarin.  I wanted to use the current RPI not a projection of what maybe at the end of the season.

All good my man, I like the thread/topic

Quote from: GWSwarrior on December 30, 2016, 10:20:20 AM
RPIforcast is an awesome website, there are already posts regarding Kenpom and sagarin.  I wanted to use the current RPI not a projection of what maybe at the end of the season.

The whole premise of your original post was MU's tourney resume relative to top 25 RPI wins... why would you not want to consider a projection of RPI at year end? Makes no sense

well, butler ain't gonna be top 25 for long if they keep playing like they did last night (loss to st. johnnies) and then pee'd their panties on the flight home

Quote from: Jay Bee on December 30, 2016, 11:03:24 AM
The whole premise of your original post was MU's tourney resume relative to top 25 RPI wins... why would you not want to consider a projection of RPI at year end? Makes no sense

you can always ask your own poll  ;D

come on, go for the gusto man-'nova!  almost embarassed to say this, but study the depaul-'nova game tape from the other night=chicken dinner, 'ey?

Quote from: GWSwarrior on December 30, 2016, 10:20:20 AM
RPIforcast is an awesome website, there are already posts regarding Kenpom and sagarin.  I wanted to use the current RPI not a projection of what maybe at the end of the season.

But if you're talking top-25 RPI, current numbers really don't matter. As of right now, we already have a top-25 RPI win over #22 Georgia (using the ESPN predictor that you cited). But using that predictor, UNC-Wilmington, UT-Arlington, and Middle Tennessee are all top-50 teams. Right now, Nicholls State, Omaha, and Houston Baptist are all top-100 teams despite having losing records.

If you're talking about resume, it's not meaningful unless you are talking about season ending numbers. That's why all the support for RPIForecast that shows four Big East teams projecting to be top-20 teams ('Nova, Xavier, Creighton, Butler).

Even still, I would exercise caution using that, as my experiment last year (http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=50140.msg812498#msg812498) found their predictions to be reliably accurate to a +/- of 10, and when you have a 20 point swing (factoring both directions) that's a significant margin of error.

I don't think anyone disagrees with the validity of the topic, but if we're talking about what will be meaningful resume building numbers come Selection Sunday, the ESPN site probably isn't your best friend.