A three spot improvement off the impressive showing tonight. One spot ahead of buzz and his 36th ranked VA tech.
waiting for the "gotta keep wojo" chant for a contract extension, well at least a slow clap
full disclosure-i like the dude and wish nothing but the best upon him. i hope he becomes mike sheshefski II
Quote from: rocket surgeon on December 29, 2016, 05:00:40 AM
waiting for the "gotta keep wojo" chant for a contract extension, well at least a slow clap
full disclosure-i like the dude and wish nothing but the best upon him. i hope he becomes mike sheshefski II
....but stays at MU.
Quote from: muwarrior69 on December 29, 2016, 05:44:08 AM
....but stays at MU.
With the problems at Duke K quits & Wojo to Duke, hey?
Quote from: Newsdrms on December 29, 2016, 09:49:05 AM
With the problems at Duke K quits & Wojo to Duke, hey?
Why not Brey?
Quote from: Frenns Liquor Depot on December 29, 2016, 09:59:31 AM
Wojo to ND?
GGGRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!No self-respecting head basketball coach would leave Marquette for a third-rate school like that reform school down in South Bend!!!!!
Brey really isn't a "Duke guy." He didn't play for Coach K and has been coaching successfully on his own for over 20 years. I don't think he would have any desire to leave ND anyway.
If I'm Duke I'm hiring Tony Bennett and no one else. Before Tony I thought their ideal candidate was Billy Donovan.
If they stick in the tree, they're asking for trouble.
V tech will make some noise this year. I doubt we will
And we are last 4 in, in bracketology.
Quote from: The Lens on December 29, 2016, 11:05:32 AM
If I'm Duke I'm hiring Tony Bennett and no one else. Before Tony I thought their ideal candidate was Billy Donovan.
If they stick in the tree, they're asking for trouble.
Donovan was much more established than Bennett is now. I think Duke would expect someone with more success than Bennett has now.
Quote from: forgetful on December 29, 2016, 11:35:51 AM
And we are last 4 in, in bracketology.
On a crash course for a round of 32 revenge match vs the Badgers. Would be a dream scenario if Lunardi's bracket holds true. Would love knocking of MSU & Bucky
The Georgetown win is now our best win of the season, according to KenPom. The same would be true if we beat Seton Hall on the road.
Quote from: The Lens on December 29, 2016, 11:05:32 AM
If I'm Duke I'm hiring Tony Bennett and no one else. Before Tony I thought their ideal candidate was Billy Donovan.
If they stick in the tree, they're asking for trouble.
It would be interesting to see if a Donovan or Stevens would go to Duke despite being in the NBA right now. I mean neither of their teams are winning a championship any time soon so it could happen!
Quote from: LAZER on December 29, 2016, 11:36:01 AM
Donovan was much more established than Bennett is now. I think Duke would expect someone with more success than Bennett has now.
Who would that be?
Quote from: Marcus92 on December 29, 2016, 11:47:28 AM
The Georgetown win is now our best win of the season, according to KenPom.
No, it's not, according to KenPom. Not sure you understand the system...
Here is the reality about Duke.
They have watched other schools, like North Carolina, Marquette and others, be diminished for at least awhile because they were "loyal" to their own.
They are perennial powerhouse and can demand attention from any coach they want, with the possible exceptions of Roy Williams, John Calipari or Slick Rick. I suspect even Slick Rick might go to Duke if they were crazy enough to offer him. There may be a couple of others who might not go to Duke for whatever reason, but anyone Duke wants, Duke gets at least a conversation.
If Coach Wojo is lured to Duke, it's because Coach K stays for several more years and there's at least one national championship banner hanging next to the 1977 flag. There's NO WAY Wojo goes to Duke without a national championship -- or at least a final four and an NatChamp game loss. There are too many other great candidates and the last thing Duke wants -- I'm sure -- is to fall off the radar if and when Coach K retires.
The bigger risk we have is that Coach Wojo is successful and somehow thinks Nirvana is not at 12th and Wisconsin. He then bolts for someplace like Texas after Shaka is terminated.
Quote from: tower912 on December 29, 2016, 11:51:57 AM
Who would that be?
I mean there's plenty of them out there, poster said "no one else". I think Jay Wright would be an interesting name, not sure if he's interested in following K, but I'd certainly put in a call.
Quote from: Jay Bee on December 29, 2016, 11:57:42 AMNo, it's not, according to KenPom. Not sure you understand the system...
What'd I miss? Is it because the Georgetown game was at home?
Quote from: dgies9156 on December 29, 2016, 12:02:25 PM
Here is the reality about Duke.
They have watched other schools, like North Carolina, Marquette and others, be diminished for at least awhile because they were "loyal" to their own.
They are perennial powerhouse and can demand attention from any coach they want, with the possible exceptions of Roy Williams, John Calipari or Slick Rick. I suspect even Slick Rick might go to Duke if they were crazy enough to offer him. There may be a couple of others who might not go to Duke for whatever reason, but anyone Duke wants, Duke gets at least a conversation.
If Coach Wojo is lured to Duke, it's because Coach K stays for several more years and there's at least one national championship banner hanging next to the 1977 flag. There's NO WAY Wojo goes to Duke without a national championship -- or at least a final four and an NatChamp game loss. There are too many other great candidates and the last thing Duke wants -- I'm sure -- is to fall off the radar if and when Coach K retires.
The bigger risk we have is that Coach Wojo is successful and somehow thinks Nirvana is not at 12th and Wisconsin. He then bolts for someplace like Texas after Shaka is terminated.
I think this is spot on, not sure about it specifically being a championship but there's at least FF flags hanging for him to get a serious look without pissing off the Duke trustees
Quote from: Marcus92 on December 29, 2016, 12:07:55 PM
What'd I miss? Is it because the Georgetown game was at home?
Bingo. Georgia game actually qualifies as a "Top 50 Adjusted" game, whereas last nights does not
Quote from: dgies9156 on December 29, 2016, 12:02:25 PMHere is the reality about Duke.
They have watched other schools, like North Carolina, Marquette and others, be diminished for at least awhile because they were "loyal" to their own.
I think the reality is that Duke will be diminished no matter who they hire to replace Coach K.
Krzyzewski is the winningest coach in the history of NCAA basketball. He's won 5 national championships — as many as Roy Williams, Rick Pitino and John Calipari put together. Coach K is the modern-day equivalent of Coach Wooden, who set a standard that UCLA has yet to reach again in more than 40 years.
No coach in the world is good enough to replace someone who's built the Duke program over the course of 35 years and accomplished everything there is to accomplish in the sport.
Quote from: Jay Bee on December 29, 2016, 12:18:02 PMBingo. Georgia game actually qualifies as a "Top 50 Adjusted" game, whereas last nights does not.
Gotcha. Thanks for the correction.
Tony Bennett is winning big at UVA, a school that prides itself on academics. He's squeaky clean, comes from a great coaching family, was an outstanding college player and played in the NBA. He's my #1 draft choice right now.
Stevens & Donovan may never go back to college
Cal, Pitino & Roy don't fit for various reasons
The only others who make sense are Self & Jay Wright. I doubt Jay will leave Nova now and feel somewhat the same about Self. Plus Tony is only 47; 7 years younger than Self, 8 years younger than Wright.
Quote from: The Lens on December 29, 2016, 11:05:32 AM
If I'm Duke I'm hiring Tony Bennett and no one else. Before Tony I thought their ideal candidate was Billy Donovan.
If they stick in the tree, they're asking for trouble.
The last buzz ( 3 Months ago) on their Board was looking for Brad Stevens
Quote from: The Lens on December 29, 2016, 12:55:20 PM
Tony Bennett is winning big at UVA, a school that prides itself on academics. He's squeaky clean, comes from a great coaching family, was an outstanding college player and played in the NBA. He's my #1 draft choice right now.
Stevens & Donovan may never go back to college
Cal, Pitino & Roy don't fit for various reasons
The only others who make sense are Self & Jay Wright. I doubt Jay will leave Nova now and feel somewhat the same about Self. Plus Tony is only 47; 7 years younger than Self, 8 years younger than Wright.
Sean Miller would be another name.
Quote from: Loose Cannon on December 29, 2016, 12:59:34 PM
The last buzz ( 3 Months ago) on their Board was looking for Brad Stevens
I'd be surprised. I don't think Stevens was ever enamored with the recruiting process and is a much better fit in the pros than in college.
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 29, 2016, 01:07:32 PM
I'd be surprised. I don't think Stevens was ever enamored with the recruiting process and is a much better fit in the pros than in college.
All good points.
How many college coaches out there are more "established" than Tony Bennett? Not many, and those that are aren't leaving for Duke (Rick, Self, Roy, Cal). Jay Wright is the most interesting name, with Miller being the second. Not sure Miller would leave Arizona. Duke may be the only job Wright would leave Nova for, but even that...
Stevens? No way he leaves the NBA to bow down to 16 year old kids again. Doubt Donovan would be interested either, though he's a lot more likely than Stevens.
How often do college coaches go from one very successful program to another very successful program within the same conference? I can't think of many times it's happened.
Are there any college coaches with connections to coach K through USA basketball?
Quote from: wadesworld on December 29, 2016, 01:35:03 PM
How many college coaches out there are more "established" than Tony Bennett? Not many, and those that are aren't leaving for Duke (Rick, Self, Roy, Cal). Jay Wright is the most interesting name, with Miller being the second. Not sure Miller would leave Arizona. Duke may be the only job Wright would leave Nova for, but even that...
Stevens? No way he leaves the NBA to bow down to 16 year old kids again. Doubt Donovan would be interested either, though he's a lot more likely than Stevens.
How often do college coaches go from one very successful program to another very successful program within the same conference? I can't think of many times it's happened.
Are there any college coaches with connections to coach K through USA basketball?
By established, I meant successful. And there are obviously plenty of coaches more successful than Bennett, the question of whether or not they take the job wasn't posed by the original poster.
As far as established coaches, I agree that Tony Bennett, Jay Wright, and Sean Miller would be the most viable candidates for the job.
Looking further down the scales, I suppose I could see Chris Mack, Chris Collins, or maybe Dana Altman getting some consideration.
The dark horse in my opinion would be Bill Self. Kansas is a great program, but might be a step behind Duke/UNC/UK in terms of coaching perceptions. He can recruit and already has a NC, and his name has been floated in the past (Oklahoma State, his alma mater). He might be willing to part ways with the Jayhawks for the right opportunity.
Quote from: LAZER on December 29, 2016, 02:04:21 PM
By established, I meant successful. And there are obviously plenty of coaches more successful than Bennett, the question of whether or not they take the job wasn't posed by the original poster.
I guess it depends on what someone considers as "success" for a high major head D1 men's basketball coach. Is someone who caught lightning in a bottle and made a miracle FF run with a mid major but never made it past the 2nd round or won their mid major conference more successful than a guy who has won the top conference in the country multiple times and has multiple top 2 seeds but has lost in the E8 a couple times?
I guess I just question that there are that many more successful college coaches out there. Bennett has been incredibly successful at UVA.
Quote from: wadesworld on December 29, 2016, 02:10:43 PM
I guess it depends on what someone considers as "success" for a high major head D1 men's basketball coach. Is someone who caught lightning in a bottle and made a miracle FF run with a mid major but never made it past the 2nd round or won their mid major conference more successful than a guy who has won the top conference in the country multiple times and has multiple top 2 seeds but has lost in the E8 a couple times?
I guess I just question that there are that many more successful college coaches out there. Bennett has been incredibly successful at UVA.
Ultimately what I'm trying to say is that if I'm Duke, Bennett is not at the top of my list. He would be a nice hire, but for me I would be calling Stevens, Donovan, Wright, Miller, and maybe a couple others before him.
Would it make sense for Bennett to leave Virginia to go to Duke? He has been very successful at Virginia. I think Virginia would be even more successful if Duke fell down slightly with Coach K's retirement. It also would not surprise me if Roy Williams retired before Coach K. Both Duke and North Carolina could end up being less successful than Virginia.
Is there anyone in the DLeague or Oversees or a Canadian college coach they'd look at? Feel free to laugh but I'm just trying to think outside the box here.
Simple answer for Duke, BUZZ! It was probably his plan all along.
Quote from: Marcus92 on December 29, 2016, 11:47:28 AM
The Georgetown win is now our best win of the season, according to KenPom. The same would be true if we beat Seton Hall on the road.
I'd respectfully disagree on best win. I know what you mean, they were the highest ranked team we beat, but I believe it's only our third best win on kenpom when accounting for where games were played.
1. Georgia we were 1 point underdog on the road and it was a 10 point upset win. (I am going to Auburn-UGA tonight hoping UGA pulls off a road win to make that even better)
2. Vandy we were only 47th, but on a neutral court we were just a 3 point favorite and won by 24.
3. Georgetown at home we were a 6-point favorite, so the 10-point win was nice and we controlled most of the game well, but would still put it as our third best win so far.
3.
Quote from: bilsu on December 29, 2016, 02:22:07 PM
Would it make sense for Bennett to leave Virginia to go to Duke? He has been very successful at Virginia. I think Virginia would be even more successful if Duke fell down slightly with Coach K's retirement. It also would not surprise me if Roy Williams retired before Coach K. Both Duke and North Carolina could end up being less successful than Virginia.
Duke's commitment to basketball is 2nd to none. It would be a coach's dream. Coach K has his own satellite radio show. Coach K had the AMEX deal. Duke affords coaches a lot more opportunities that other schools can't or won't match. And with a hire like Bennett, they could keep those rolling.
Quote from: auburnmarquette on December 29, 2016, 02:58:11 PMI'd respectfully disagree on best win. I know what you mean, they were the highest ranked team we beat, but I believe it's only our third best win on kenpom when accounting for where games were played.
1. Georgia we were 1 point underdog on the road and it was a 10 point upset win. (I am going to Auburn-UGA tonight hoping UGA pulls off a road win to make that even better)
2. Vandy we were only 47th, but on a neutral court we were just a 3 point favorite and won by 24.
3. Georgetown at home we were a 6-point favorite, so the 10-point win was nice and we controlled most of the game well, but would still put it as our third best win so far.
Yeah, JayBee already corrected me on that one. Still, a good win to start the conference schedule. Now let's get one on the road against Seton Hall.
oops, sorry for repeating JayBee, but yes a nice win. hopefully the UGA win gets even better if they can upset Auburn tonight
Do you know how difficult it is going to be for Duke to hire someone outside the Duke family? If it doesn't work, the athletic director will be run out of town and the coach is going to have an incredibly short leash.
They will give it to some Coach K protege...and if that doesn't work out, THEN they will give it to an outsider.
I think they will follow what K wants.. be it someone from the family or not.
After John Wooden's 10 national titles, UCLA fans witnessed a succession of 5 head coaches in 13 seasons (and zero titles).
After Dean Smith's 3 national titles, North Carolina went through Bill Guthridge, Matt Doherty and 11 years without a title before Roy Williams won his first.
After Bobby Knight's 3 national titles, Indiana discarded 3 head coaches in 9 seasons (Mike Davis, Kelvin Sampson and Dan Dakich) before hiring Crean. No national title since 1987.
The record isn't good for schools looking to replace a coaching legend. If history is any guide, the Duke men's basketball program is in for some rough years after Coach K retires.
The best succession success stories in college basketball are probably Tom Izzo (an assistant to Jud Heathcoate at Michigan State) and Rick Pitino (picked up off the NBA scrap heap to follow Denny Crum at Louisville).
You could conceivably add a couple others. Tubby Smith won a national title with Pitino's recruits at Kentucky. And Kevin Ollie did the same at UConn after Jim Calhoun retired. But Tubby never made another Final Four and eventually resigned. The jury's still out on Ollie, whose team is off to a 5-7 start this season.
Gene Bartow did a decent job following up John Wooden at UCLA. He was a "hot" coach, hired away from Illinois after earlier leading Memphis to the Final Four. In two years he went 52-9, won two conference titles and one final four. However he wasn't a Wooden guy, had trouble dealing with the boosters, and left to be replaced by a former Wooden assistant Gary Cunningham.
Probably a great example of why its hard to replace a legend.
OTOH, I was just watching the Belk Bowl and they were talking about Justin Fuente replacing Frank Beamer as the Virginia Tech head coach and how well that is going. Part of that is because the "in house" candidate, defensive coordinator Bud Foster, isn't a big ego guy and was retained by Fuente.
So it *can* work under the right circumstances.
Quote from: Marcus92 on December 29, 2016, 03:55:18 PM
After John Wooden's 10 national titles, UCLA fans witnessed a succession of 5 head coaches in 13 seasons (and zero titles).
After Dean Smith's 3 national titles, North Carolina went through Bill Guthridge, Matt Doherty and 11 years without a title before Roy Williams won his first.
After Bobby Knight's 3 national titles, Indiana discarded 3 head coaches in 9 seasons (Mike Davis, Kelvin Sampson and Dan Dakich) before hiring Crean. No national title since 1987.
The record isn't good for schools looking to replace a coaching legend. If history is any guide, the Duke men's basketball program is in for some rough years after Coach K retires.
Exactly! You can't be the coach after the legend.
Quote from: auburnmarquette on December 29, 2016, 09:19:03 PM
Exactly! You can't be the coach after the legend.
Gotta give Tim Duryea his five years before you make that statement.
Quote from: Dr. Vinnie Boombatz on December 29, 2016, 09:05:10 PMSo it *can* work under the right circumstances.
The tough thing is, the circumstances and expectations at a program like Duke are very specific and demanding.
Bill Guthridge took North Carolina to two Final Fours and it wasn't considered good enough. If you follow a legend like Coach K, you're expected to continue at the same level of excellence. So who's as good as one of the best coaches of all time? It's a nearly impossible scenario to walk into.
Quote from: Marcus92 on December 29, 2016, 09:36:14 PM
Bill Guthridge took North Carolina to two Final Fours and it wasn't considered good enough. If you follow a legend like Coach K, you're expected to continue at the same level of excellence. So who's as good as one of the best coaches of all time? It's a nearly impossible scenario to walk into.
From what I remember Guthridge was never thought to be a permanent solution (by him and the school)- just a bridge for the existing players.
Doherty is the one that had the short leash - turns out that was the right call.
So Georgia moved up to 52nd at kenpom after beating auburn, was spot ahead of Georgetown.
So comparing results against Georgia adjusted for home court, Marquette is 30 points better than Bruce Pearls Auburn team ... And 3 points better than Kansas.
Quote from: auburnmarquette on December 29, 2016, 09:43:08 PMSo Georgia moved up to 52nd at kenpom after beating auburn, was spot ahead of Georgetown.
So comparing results against Georgia adjusted for home court, Marquette is 30 points better than Bruce Pearls Auburn team ... And 3 points better than Kansas.
"What do you think the chances are of a team like Georgia running the table in the SEC?"
"Well, that's really difficult to say..."
"Hit me! Just give it to me straight! What are my chances?"
"Not good."
"You mean, not good, like, one out of a hundred?"
"I'd say more like one out of a million."
"So you're telling me there's a chance. Yeah!!!"
I didn't want to say anything here to come off as a jerk or round about humble brag. I'll say this, prefaced by anything can change.
Having befriended someone in the Duke program, talking to said player's family about the program, spent time on Duke's campus with "people" there, I can say (almost) definitively that when K decides to retire, there won't be a public search. People will express interest behind the scenes (as they should to improve their own situations), but K (and White) will quickly (as contracts permit) decide who gets that spot. K runs that place with an absolute iron fist, and won't tarnish Duke without vetting the replacement.
Sorry for the rant, back to your regularly scheduled programming (already in progress)...
Quote from: MUDish on December 29, 2016, 10:31:13 PM
I didn't want to say anything here to come off as a jerk or round about humble brag. I'll say this, prefaced by anything can change.
Having befriended someone in the Duke program, talking to said player's family about the program, spent time on Duke's campus with "people" there, I can say (almost) definitively that when K decides to retire, there won't be a public search. People will express interest behind the scenes (as they should to improve their own situations), but K (and White) will quickly (as contracts permit) decide who gets that spot. K runs that place with an absolute iron fist, and won't tarnish Duke without vetting the replacement.
Sorry for the rant, back to your regularly scheduled programming (already in progress)...
This seems right
Quote from: The Equalizer on December 29, 2016, 09:28:33 PM
Gotta give Tim Duryea his five years before you make that statement.
Without looking, I must assume that Tim Duryea is the head coach at Utah State now?
Quote from: The Lens on December 29, 2016, 03:05:40 PM
Duke's commitment to basketball is 2nd to none. It would be a coach's dream. Coach K has his own satellite radio show. Coach K had the AMEX deal. Duke affords coaches a lot more opportunities that other schools can't or won't match. And with a hire like Bennett, they could keep those rolling.
I see your point, but no matter who Duke hires it will be a coach's nightmere, if he does not win an NCAA title within 5 years. It will be very hard to compete with Coach K's legacy. I think that is the biggest downside to taking the Duke job.
Quote from: The Equalizer on December 29, 2016, 09:28:33 PM
Gotta give Tim Duryea his five years before you make that statement.
Damn, that was good
Quote from: The Equalizer on December 29, 2016, 09:28:33 PM
Gotta give Tim Duryea his five years before you make that statement.
Shut down the Internet, Equalizer won. Hands down, best post of 2016.
Chris Collins has a better shot den Wojo, hey?
may have to rethink that "...ahead of Buzz" clause after today....
Quote from: MUBigDance on December 31, 2016, 12:39:08 PM
may have to rethink that "...ahead of Buzz" clause after today....
Just Buzz being Buzz.
Quote from: MUBigDance on December 31, 2016, 12:39:08 PM
may have to rethink that "...ahead of Buzz" clause after today....
Yes...short lived. That's a strange barometer anyways
Isn't RPI where we are like # 72 a more important predictor of ncaa tournament inclusion than pomeroy?
Quote from: ATWizJr on January 01, 2017, 10:41:32 AM
Isn't RPI where we are like # 72 a more important predictor of ncaa tournament inclusion than pomeroy?
Current RPI as a predictor at this point? No. Projected RPI? You have a case there.
VT projected RPI: 45
MU projected RPI: 49
Quote from: Ellenson Family Reunion on January 01, 2017, 11:02:35 AM
Current RPI as a predictor at this point? No. Projected RPI? You have a case there.
VT projected RPI: 45
MU projected RPI: 49
OOOH YES! I knew someone would make sure they put VT's info in here. Ellenson has got his VT gear in today for the game apparently.
Quote from: fjm on January 01, 2017, 11:04:00 AM
OOOH YES! I knew someone would make sure they put VT's info in here. Ellenson has got his VT gear in today for the game apparently.
to be fair, that's the context of the thread...vs Buzz.
Certainly Scoop has been talking Buzz and VT too much lately ...of which I am an offender.
I'm looking for a good win over SH today...best way to stop looking backward, sideways, up -in-the-air, or at the ground...forward to the BIG DANCE!
Quote from: fjm on January 01, 2017, 11:04:00 AM
OOOH YES! I knew someone would make sure they put VT's info in here. Ellenson has got his VT gear in today for the game apparently.
Are you still drunk? Follow the thread and read the post I responded to.
Quote from: Ellenson Family Reunion on January 01, 2017, 11:39:38 AM
Are you still drunk? Follow the thread and read the post I responded to.
Not drunk.
Unbelievable !!!
Only on Scoop does the mention that MU has finally risen to just a 35th ranking somewhere lead to a multipage discussion of who could possibly cock-block Wojo from getting the Duke job.
Quote from: 4everCrean on January 02, 2017, 02:55:04 PM
Unbelievable !!!
Only on Scoop does the mention that MU has finally risen to just a 35th ranking somewhere lead to a multipage discussion of who could possibly cock-block Wojo from getting the Duke job.
Surprised? This is the only place where if we made the final four, 10 of the first 20 posts would read "yeah but BUZZ and CREAN both made the sweet 16!!"
On Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology on ESPN, MU has moved up to a "Last 4 in" along with VCU, MSU, and OSU
Marquette, Illinois and Northwestern all in that last four in, first four out range. Gonna be a stressful conference season for me.
10 conference wins and MU is in. Let's get it done this year so I don't have to dwell on the Pitt and SH games.
Quote from: wadesworld on January 03, 2017, 12:13:23 PM
10 conference wins and MU is in. Let's get it done this year so I don't have to dwell on the Pitt and SH games.
Agree. Even going 10-8 with sweeps of PC, DP, SJU, GT, and then beating SHU and Butler at home, would give us the following numbers (projected)
W-L RPI* SOS
19-11 49 46
1-7 against the top 4, and those numbers are probably still enough to get us in
Quote from: MuEagle1090 on January 03, 2017, 12:30:16 PM
Agree. Even going 10-8 with sweeps of PC, DP, SJU, GT, and then beating SHU and Butler at home, would give us the following numbers (projected)
W-L RPI* SOS
19-11 49 46
1-7 against the top 4, and those numbers are probably still enough to get us in
Would 9-9 with a win vs a surprise? Like creighton or X get us in?
I really want 10-8. I am
Just being honest. This team will shoot us to a lot of wins. But also lose us one surprise game.
Quote from: MuEagle1090 on January 03, 2017, 12:30:16 PM
Agree. Even going 10-8 with sweeps of PC, DP, SJU, GT, and then beating SHU and Butler at home, would give us the following numbers (projected)
W-L RPI* SOS
19-11 49 46
1-7 against the top 4, and those numbers are probably still enough to get us in
Still believe it's 20 wins total, whether during regular season or with the combination of wins from the Big East tournament.
Quote from: auburnmarquette on January 03, 2017, 01:44:49 PM
Still believe it's 20 wins total, whether during regular season or with the combination of wins from the Big East tournament.
I agree in the sense that we'd be a lock with 20 wins, but 19-12 with a first round loss to X or Butler would only drop our RPI to 50 and would increase SOS to 35.
That could still be enough.
20 wins. Unless every midmajor conference champ loses their tourney again like last year. Then we are out the NCAA and NIT again
Quote from: fjm on January 03, 2017, 02:31:33 PM
20 wins. Unless every midmajor conference champ loses their tourney again like last year. Then we are out the NCAA and NIT again
20 wins this year and 20 wins last year don't even begin to compare. Our RPI would be 60-70 spots better this year with the identical record.
Quote from: MuEagle1090 on January 03, 2017, 02:56:32 PM
20 wins this year and 20 wins last year don't even begin to compare. Our RPI would be 60-70 spots better this year with the identical record.
That is true, but last year we four quality wins over NCAA tournament teams Providence (2), Bulter and Wisconsin.
Quote from: bilsu on January 03, 2017, 08:28:15 PM
That is true, but last year we four quality wins over NCAA tournament teams Providence (2), Bulter and Wisconsin.
Last year we were 12-13 against non cupcakes.
Quote from: bilsu on January 03, 2017, 08:28:15 PM
That is true, but last year we four quality wins over NCAA tournament teams Providence (2), Bulter and Wisconsin.
This year we have Georgia and would need 10 more wins from here on out. Either one of two things happens. We sweep our remaining games against DePaul, St. John's, Providence, and Georgetown (7 games) and end up with 3 more quality wins against Villanova, Butler, Creighton, Seton Hall, and Xavier to get to 10, or we slip up against a non-tourney team (like last year) and end up with more than 3 quality wins.
Either way, if we get to 20, we will have a much better resume than last year, especially as last year we went 8-1 in our home "cupcake" games against teams with an average RPI of 269.2 and this year we were 7-0 against teams with an average expected RPI of 234.6. Two fewer cupcakes on the schedule, one fewer loss, average improvement of 35 spots in RPI, and zero sub-300 projected opponents is a massive upgrade.
From a mathematical perspective, 20 wins this year would be a landslide better than last year no matter what. And yes, I know RPI isn't calculated based on the RPI ranking of your opponents, but for the sake of this argument I feel it's effective.
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 04, 2017, 08:11:16 AM
This year we have Georgia and would need 10 more wins from here on out. Either one of two things happens. We sweep our remaining games against DePaul, St. John's, Providence, and Georgetown (7 games) and end up with 3 more quality wins against Villanova, Butler, Creighton, Seton Hall, and Xavier to get to 10, or we slip up against a non-tourney team (like last year) and end up with more than 3 quality wins.
Either way, if we get to 20, we will have a much better resume than last year, especially as last year we went 8-1 in our home "cupcake" games against teams with an average RPI of 269.2 and this year we were 7-0 against teams with an average expected RPI of 234.6. Two fewer cupcakes on the schedule, one fewer loss, average improvement of 35 spots in RPI, and zero sub-300 projected opponents is a massive upgrade.
From a mathematical perspective, 20 wins this year would be a landslide better than last year no matter what. And yes, I know RPI isn't calculated based on the RPI ranking of your opponents, but for the sake of this argument I feel it's effective.
20 wins this year would be a landslide better than last year. Remove one bunny form last year's schedule and we would of been 19-13. If we get to 9-9 that would get us to 18-12. One & one in Big east tournament gets to 19-13 against a tougher schedule. What we do not know is whether 9-9 gets us out of the bottom four. Last year had we beaten Butler, I think there would of been 3 teams tied at 9-9 and one of them would of been in the bottom four. That is important, because if you finished 7th then your Big East tournament win comes against the last place team, so in that case 1-1 in Big East tournament is not a big help to our resume. I think we need 20 wins to get a bid. 19 would work, if 9-9 gets us out of bottom four, which means a first round Big East tournament win is against a very good team. Also, do not forget the eye test. Last year we were beaten badly by the top teams in the conference. While losing to Seton Hall hurt, I would argue we past the eye test in that game.