MUScoop

MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on November 21, 2016, 02:38:57 PM

Title: Game Winners under Wojo
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on November 21, 2016, 02:38:57 PM
Eng brought up a pattern where Wojo has been unable to draw up a winning play when the game is within 1 possession at the buzzer. I honestly didn't know so I thought I would go back and look.

2016-2017:
vs. Pittsburgh (FAIL): Rowsey drive fails to draw foul (down by 1)

2015-2016:
vs. Georgetown (SUCCESS): Luke draws foul and sinks FTs (down by 1)
vs. Creighton (FAIL): Duane misses three pointer (down by three)
vs. Providence (SUCCESS): Carter makes layup to force OT. Goes onto win in double OT (down by 2)
vs. Arizona State (FAIL): Carter misses jumper gets own rebound, misses layup. Goes on to win OT. (Tied)
vs. LSU (SUCCESS): JJJ forces FTs and sinks them both (down by 1)
vs. IUPUI (FAIL): Duane misses three pointer. Goes on to win in OT (Tied)
vs. Belmont (FAIL): Henry commits a charge and turns it over (down by 1)

2014-2015:
vs. Butler (FAIL): Carlino turns it over. Goes onto lose in OT (tied)
vs. Georgetown (SUCCESS): Car3no makes a long two pointer that was originally ruled a three. Stupid pinky toe. Goes on to lose in OT (down by 2)
@ Xavier (FAIL): Carlino misses three pointer (down by three)
vs. Creighton (SUCCESS): Car3no makes three pointer (down by 2)
@Depaul (FAIL): Duane misses three pointer (down by three)

So in three years of Wojo, he has successfully drawn up game winning or tying plays in 5 out of 13 opportunities. That's 38.5% for those of you keeping track at home. I have no idea what a "good" percentage would be on this stat. I would imagine most coaches are below 50%. Fun fact, Carlino, Duane, and Carter are the only three who have had multiple attempts to win the game. Wojo likes his PGs at the end. Also noticed that 3 of the 8 FAILs were when we were down by three. So in late game situations where we are down two, one, or tied, Wojo is 5-5.
Title: Re: Game Winners under Wojo
Post by: MarquetteDano on November 21, 2016, 02:55:02 PM
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on November 21, 2016, 02:38:57 PM
I have no idea what a "good" percentage would be on this stat. I would imagine most coaches are below 50%.

If I was a betting man,  I would say a good percentage depends on what the lead is.  I would say when a team is even,  a good coach wins about 60% of the time.  When a team is down 1,  a good coach wins about 50% of the time.  When a team is down 2,  I would guess a good coach wins only 40% of the time and down three isn't very good... maybe 25% of the time?
Title: Re: Game Winners under Wojo
Post by: jsglow on November 21, 2016, 03:08:06 PM
TAMU I'm confused.  Is your reference to WIN/LOSS the success or lack thereof of the play at the end of regulation?
Title: Re: Game Winners under Wojo
Post by: brewcity77 on November 21, 2016, 03:10:38 PM
Quote from: jsglow on November 21, 2016, 03:08:06 PM
TAMU I'm confused.  Is your reference to WIN/LOSS the success or lack thereof of the play at the end of regulation?

Gotta be winning the play, because two of the "losses" were won in overtime after tie games on our last possession, and one "win" (Carlino against GT, remember that like it was yesterday) ended up being a game we lost in overtime.
Title: Re: Game Winners under Wojo
Post by: jsglow on November 21, 2016, 03:12:18 PM
Quote from: brewcity77 on November 21, 2016, 03:10:38 PM
Gotta be winning the play, because two of the "losses" were won in overtime after tie games on our last possession, and one "win" (Carlino against GT, remember that like it was yesterday) ended up being a game we lost in overtime.

That's what I'm assuming too.
Title: Re: Game Winners under Wojo
Post by: #UnleashSean on November 21, 2016, 03:22:11 PM
Quote from: MarquetteDano on November 21, 2016, 02:55:02 PM
If I was a betting man,  I would say a good percentage depends on what the lead is.  I would say when a team is even,  a good coach wins about 60% of the time.  When a team is down 1,  a good coach wins about 50% of the time.  When a team is down 2,  I would guess a good coach wins only 40% of the time and down three isn't very good... maybe 25% of the time?

I would assume being down 1 or 2 would have near the same. Since the same shot would be put up regardless.
Title: Re: Game Winners under Wojo
Post by: THRILLHO on November 21, 2016, 03:44:05 PM
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on November 21, 2016, 02:38:57 PM


So in three years of Wojo, he has successfully drawn up game winning or tying plays in 5 out of 13 opportunities. That's 27.8% for those of you keeping track at home.

You may want to repeat that calculation. Think maybe you did 5 / 18?
Title: Re: Game Winners under Wojo
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on November 21, 2016, 04:44:52 PM
Quote from: jsglow on November 21, 2016, 03:08:06 PM
TAMU I'm confused.  Is your reference to WIN/LOSS the success or lack thereof of the play at the end of regulation?

Maybe a poor choice of words. Like Sultan said, it was about winning the individual play. Success/fail might been better. Edited above.
Title: Re: Game Winners under Wojo
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on November 21, 2016, 04:47:01 PM
Quote from: THRILLHO on November 21, 2016, 03:44:05 PM
You may want to repeat that calculation. Think maybe you did 5 / 18?

Totally did. Thanks for the assist. Edited above.
Title: Re: Game Winners under Wojo
Post by: MarquetteDano on November 21, 2016, 04:56:40 PM
Quote from: #UnleashWally on November 21, 2016, 03:22:11 PM
I would assume being down 1 or 2 would have near the same. Since the same shot would be put up regardless.

Have to include fouls.
Title: Re: Game Winners under Wojo
Post by: bilsu on November 22, 2016, 03:58:21 PM
How about last year's DePaul game? Wilson hit what should of been the winning shot. However, we gave the game away after that.
2014-15 Butler game we had a 10 point lead with less than 3 minutes to go. That was a bigger meltdown than the Pitt game.
Title: Re: Game Winners under Wojo
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on November 22, 2016, 04:37:59 PM
Quote from: bilsu on November 22, 2016, 03:58:21 PM
How about last year's DePaul game? Wilson hit what should of been the winning shot. However, we gave the game away after that.
2014-15 Butler game we had a 10 point lead with less than 3 minutes to go. That was a bigger meltdown than the Pitt game.

I don't think you understand the point of this thread. This is looking at how the team has done when the game is tied or they are down 1-3 and Wojo calls a play out of a timeout.
Title: Re: Game Winners under Wojo
Post by: Dawson Rental on November 22, 2016, 04:43:27 PM
Quote from: MarquetteDano on November 21, 2016, 02:55:02 PM
If I was a betting man,  I would say a good percentage depends on what the lead is.  I would say when a team is even,  a good coach wins about 60% of the time.  When a team is down 1,  a good coach wins about 50% of the time.  When a team is down 2,  I would guess a good coach wins only 40% of the time and down three isn't very good... maybe 25% of the time?

During McGuire's last two years, I remember thinking the game was in the bag if if MU was down by one, but had the last possession.
Title: Re: Game Winners under Wojo
Post by: MarquetteDano on November 22, 2016, 05:13:01 PM
Quote from: 4everCrean on November 22, 2016, 04:43:27 PM
During McGuire's last two years, I remember thinking the game was in the bag if if MU was down by one, but had the last possession.

Difference between a good coach and a great coach.   8-)
Title: Re: Game Winners under Wojo
Post by: real chili 83 on November 22, 2016, 05:32:40 PM
When Buzz was coach, there was a string of games where we were down by 20 and always came back.  Jae, DJO, etc. 
Title: Re: Game Winners under Wojo
Post by: Goose on November 22, 2016, 06:25:44 PM
Aside from last season an Al led team never lost a game they were supposed win. Game on the line it was money.

Agreed on the Buzz era. As an old timer fan I would say the comeback win WVU showed the balls of that team. Buzz's teams closed at a very high level.
Title: Re: Game Winners under Wojo
Post by: GGGG on November 22, 2016, 07:23:22 PM
Quote from: Goose on November 22, 2016, 06:25:44 PM
Aside from last season an Al led team never lost a game they were supposed win.

I seriously doubt that.
Title: Re: Game Winners under Wojo
Post by: Goose on November 22, 2016, 07:26:43 PM
Vinnie

Aside from Al's last season they never lost a game they were supposed to win. You can take that to the bank and tell them Goose sent you.
Title: Re: Game Winners under Wojo
Post by: 79Warrior on November 22, 2016, 11:04:35 PM
Quote from: Dr. Vinnie Boombatz on November 22, 2016, 07:23:22 PM
I seriously doubt that.

Then you don't know your history.
Title: Re: Game Winners under Wojo
Post by: Galway Eagle on November 22, 2016, 11:06:23 PM
Quote from: Goose on November 22, 2016, 07:26:43 PM
Vinnie

Aside from Al's last season they never lost a game they were supposed to win. You can take that to the bank and tell them Goose sent you.

Ohio state says hi
Title: Re: Game Winners under Wojo
Post by: GGGG on November 23, 2016, 07:25:02 AM
Quote from: 79Warrior on November 22, 2016, 11:04:35 PM
Then you don't know your history.


I do know my history.  Al McGuire lost games he was supposed to win.  Not often, but to say he never did outside of 76-77 is simply false.
Title: Re: Game Winners under Wojo
Post by: Goose on November 23, 2016, 07:31:25 AM
Vinnie

A guy far smarter than I am said we never lost a game we should have won in the Al era. That guy unfortunately is not here to confirm.
Title: Re: Game Winners under Wojo
Post by: bilsu on November 23, 2016, 07:34:23 AM
Quote from: MarquetteDano on November 22, 2016, 05:13:01 PM
Difference between a good coach and a great coach.   8-)
I think Wojo would be winning a lot more close games, if he had the players Al had.
Title: Re: Game Winners under Wojo
Post by: GGGG on November 23, 2016, 07:39:16 AM
Quote from: Goose on November 23, 2016, 07:31:25 AM
Vinnie

A guy far smarter than I am said we never lost a game we should have won in the Al era. That guy unfortunately is not here to confirm.


So are you really saying that he lost no game where Marquette was favored beforehand?  Because I know that isn't the case.  For instance, in 1973-74 they lost a home game when they were ranked #6 against an unranked Creighton team.  Now Creighton was very good that year, but they weren't the national runner up like MU was.

There are a number of other examples as well.
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