I can't believe I forgot to place a bet on MU to win the national title when I was in Vegas!
According to Bovada, here are the odds ...
4/6/16 10/6/16 Current Odds (11/10/16)
Duke 9/2 4/1 15/4
Kansas 10/1 10/1 7/1
Kentucky 6/1 15/2 7/1
Arizona 22/1 14/1 16/1
North Carolina 12/1 16/1 16/1
Oregon 20/1 16/1 16/1
Wisconsin 25/1 16/1 16/1
Michigan State 12/1 16/1 20/1
Syracuse 50/1 25/1 20/1
Villanova 8/1 10/1 20/1
Indiana 20/1 25/1 33/1
Virginia 20/1 25/1 33/1
Connecticut 33/1 40/1 40/1
Louisville 10/1 25/1 40/1
Texas 50/1 66/1 40/1
Xavier 25/1 33/1 40/1
Gonzaga 66/1 66/1 50/1
Purdue 33/1 50/1 50/1
UCLA 66/1 50/1 50/1
California 100/1 66/1 66/1
Maryland 33/1 50/1 66/1
NC State 66/1 66/1 66/1
West Virginia 28/1 50/1 66/1
Iowa State 40/1 66/1 75/1
Miami Florida 40/1 66/1 75/1
Oklahoma 50/1 66/1 75/1
Florida 75/1 100/1 100/1
Iowa 75/1 100/1 100/1
Michigan 66/1 66/1 100/1
Texas A&M 66/1 100/1 100/1
Baylor 60/1 66/1 150/1
Butler 100/1 100/1 150/1
Cincinnati 100/1 100/1 150/1
Georgetown 150/1 100/1 150/1
Florida State 150/1 150/1 150/1
Ohio State 100/1 150/1 150/1
Seton Hall 50/1 66/1 150/1
USC 150/1 150/1 150/1
Wichita State 66/1 100/1 150/1
Arizona State 100/1 100/1 200/1
Dayton 150/1 200/1 200/1
Notre Dame 100/1 200/1 200/1
San Diego State 200/1 200/1 200/1
South Carolina 200/1 200/1 200/1
St Mary's CA 200/1 200/1 200/1
Tennessee 200/1 200/1 200/1
Vanderbilt 100/1 200/1 200/1
VCU 150/1 200/1 200/1
Washington 500/1 200/1 200/1
Arkansas 250/1 300/1 250/1
Kansas State 250/1 250/1 250/1
Marquette 250/1 250/1 250/1
Mississippi State 100/1 300/1 250/1
Pittsburgh 250/1 250/1 250/1
SMU 75/1 100/1 250/1
Alabama 250/1 300/1 300/1
Colorado 150/1 300/1 300/1
Georgia 250/1 300/1 300/1
Georgia Tech 250/1 300/1 300/1
Illinois 250/1 300/1 300/1
Memphis 250/1 300/1 300/1
Minnesota 250/1 300/1 300/1
Mississippi 250/1 300/1 300/1
Nebraska 300/1 300/1 300/1
Oklahoma State 250/1 300/1 300/1
St John's 300/1 300/1 300/1
Virginia Tech 300/1 300/1 300/1
Wake Forest 300/1 300/1 300/1
Auburn 250/1 500/1 500/1
Boise State 250/1 500/1 500/1
Boston College 1000/1 500/1 500/1
BYU 150/1 500/1 500/1
Clemson 250/1 500/1 500/1
Colorado State 250/1 500/1 500/1
LSU 100/1 300/1 500/1
Massachusetts 500/1 500/1 500/1
Missouri 300/1 500/1 500/1
Oregon State 250/1 500/1 500/1
Penn State 500/1 500/1 500/1
St. Joseph's 500/1 500/1 500/1
Stanford 300/1 500/1 500/1
Temple 500/1 500/1 500/1
TCU 1000/1 500/1 500/1
Valparaiso Off the Board Off the Board 500/1
Washington State 1000/1 500/1 500/1
Yes, but Dayton dropped from 150/1 to 200/1 after our Secret Scrimmage Smackdown.
Vegas knows which way the wind blows, baby.
No wonder the can pay the electric bills in Las Vegas. If you give us a 2/3 chance to make the tournament, a 50% chance in our first game and then a 1/3 chance for a win each game the rest of the tournament, that works out to roughly 762:1. Our odds of winning the tournament are not near that good this year. In actuality, I'd estimate our real odds are closer to 10,000/1.
Quote from: barfolomew on November 10, 2016, 01:30:32 PM
Yes, but Dayton dropped from 150/1 to 200/1 after our Secret Scrimmage Smackdown.
Vegas knows which way the wind blows, baby.
Dropped a couple seed lines because Sammy torched 'em, ai'na?
*Sigh*
Are we going to have to have the conversation again about how odds are based on wagering behavior, and not necessarily the actual chances of a team winning?
Quote from: warriorchick on November 10, 2016, 01:54:09 PM
*Sigh*
Are we going to have to have the conversation again about how odds are based on wagering behavior, and not necessarily the actual chances of a team winning?
I understand that completely. I'm just saying that pretty much that whole list past the first 25 teams or so are total sucker bets.
Quote from: warriorchick on November 10, 2016, 01:54:09 PM
*Sigh*
Are we going to have to have the conversation again about how odds are based on wagering behavior, and not necessarily the actual chances of a team winning?
casinos are not just the "middle man" in all of this...
I was there three weeks ago and passed on the bet. I will be there again next week and I will again pass on the bet. I do not need to win money to be happy with MU winning the title. The last time I indirectly betted on MU was the year they went to the final four with Wade. While I was actually making the bet on MU, I say indirectly because they were in the rest of the field category. Now that was a fun bet, because I not only had MU, but I also had a chance to win on any other team that did not have their own line. Last year I bet on Maryland, because I thought they were better than the odds and it turned out they were not as good as the odds.
Wisconsin at 16 to 1 is too low of odds. At 30 to 1, which is around where it originally open would of been an interesting bet. I would have to win a lot of money for me to be happy with a Badger win and even if I made that bet I would still be rooting for them to lose, even if they were playing in the championship game.
I somewhat like Duke, so in most cases I could root for them in the championship game, but the odds are too low to make it a good bet.
Kentucky is my second most hated team to WI and I would not want to have to root for them in a championship game unless they were playing Wisconsin. I suspect 7-1 is also to low of odds for a team coached by Caliprari.
My brother who is a big Badger fan thinks Oregon will win the championship. So I think if I decide to make a bet on this I would bet on either Oregon or Arizona. I like their 16-1 odds and would have no trouble rooting for either of them as long as they are not playing a Big East team. Villanova at 20-1 is also interesting. Having a bet on someone in the tournament is a lot of fun, but I do have my teams I root for, which includes all Big East teams, and of course the teams I hate that I root against. I am just thankful that I no longer feel the need to root for Louisville as I did when they were in the Big East.
Part of the consideration of making a bet is whether you will win enough to make it worth the effort to cash it in. One year I did win one of my $2 teaser bets on football bowl games (picked 7 out of 7) and it paid just over $100. However, following their recommendation I had to go to the trouble of sending it certified mail to claim my win.
Now, if one of you guys want me to make a bet for you on MU I will consider this. However, if you win, you will have to host and pay for a party inviting all MUscoopers. If you want to do this come see me at the Howard game (section 200, row Q, seat 8). If it helps you find me I am 5'6", somewhat over weight, balding 64 year old man. I will not make the bet, if I do not have money in hand.
Section 200. Row Q. Aim for the shiny bald head with my peanuts. Got it.
Wisconsin now listed as 14/1 on the vegasinsider website. Oregon at 12/1, Villanova 15/1
btw, Marquette opened as a 3.5 dog to Vandy, and the line has moved to 1.5
Even Vegas underestimates us. Ho hum...
At least, we can profit from it.
Quote from: oldwarrior81 on November 10, 2016, 03:17:29 PM
Wisconsin now listed as 14/1 on the vegasinsider website. Oregon at 12/1, Villanova 15/1
I hate it when the odds drop, it like the opposite of getting something on sale.
Just looked at Bovada's futures lines and they have Villanova 16/1 and UNC 20/1.
Yes, please.
Quote from: oldwarrior81 on November 10, 2016, 03:17:29 PM
btw, Marquette opened as a 3.5 dog to Vandy, and the line has moved to 1.5
KPom has us winning by 3, at a 60% clip. 73-70
(https://media0.giphy.com/media/bcbPzkSCytDH2/200_s.gif)
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on November 10, 2016, 07:42:39 PM
KPom has us winning by 3, at a 60% clip. 73-70
Wilson 3 for the win
Quote from: bilsu on November 10, 2016, 08:07:38 PM
Wilson 3 for the win
Wow, I didn't know Kenpom was that specific.
But,I am. DuWil for SOTG.
SOTG will be Cheat tomorrow
You're only as good as your last player.
Quote from: CTWarrior on November 10, 2016, 01:35:10 PM
No wonder the can pay the electric bills in Las Vegas. If you give us a 2/3 chance to make the tournament, a 50% chance in our first game and then a 1/3 chance for a win each game the rest of the tournament, that works out to roughly 762:1. Our odds of winning the tournament are not near that good this year. In actuality, I'd estimate our real odds are closer to 10,000/1.
We pave the roads in gold brother!
I'd be curious to know what the odds were on Nova at the start of last season.
Quote from: oldwarrior81 on November 10, 2016, 03:17:29 PM
Wisconsin now listed as 14/1 on the vegasinsider website. Oregon at 12/1, Villanova 15/1
btw, Marquette opened as a 3.5 dog to Vandy, and the line has moved to 1.5
Line has moved all the way to mu -1.5. The public pounced on MU as a dawg, 89% of bets against the spread have come on MU tonight.
Quote from: Marcus92 on November 11, 2016, 12:15:22 PM
I'd be curious to know what the odds were on Nova at the start of last season.
Villanova was listed at 25/1 back in April 2015 (for the 2016 championship). That dropped to between 12/1 and 16/1 by December.