Guys, I know we all have high expectations, but come on lets be real. Its been way too long since we have made the tourny. How early in the season could we be ranked? What is our peak this season? And will we make the tourny? If so, what seed.
Try not to be lenient toward MU just because your a fan
Quote from: Marquette4life on November 02, 2016, 05:56:58 PM
Guys, I know we all have high expectations, but come on lets be real. Its been way too long since we have made the tourny. How early in the season could we be ranked? What is our peak this season? And will we make the tourny? If so, what seed.
Try not to be lenient toward MU just because your a fan
Are you asking a question about the team? Or making a statement about our expectations?
Ok, I can't be real, I'm a fan. Lows too low, highs too high.
So given that. We won't be ranked unless we win all of the non conf. There are so many teams, it's hard to crack that If you're not there from the start. But rankings will come. I'm looking for quality wins and a good start to BE, 20-21 wins, and the big dance!
You don't have to be ranked to make the tournament. I'd prefer this team to stay under the radar as long as possible. Outside of this board, the consensus pick for MU seems to be either 6th or 7th (usually predicting around 18 wins with a conference record of 9-9). Finish one game better than that prediction and we're in the hunt. Who knows? It might just come down to the last game of the regular season.
8-1 or 7-2 going into the UW game, pull out a win and we get ranked. That's probably the soonest barring some pretty crazy blowout wins. Will it happen? Odds are pretty low.
Still planning to wait a few days to publish the full results of the prediction survey (hoping we can squeeze in a few more responses this week), but the results-to-date suggest that MU will finish 5th in the Big East (30.6%), which will be good enough to make the Tourney (51.8%).
Shameless plug if you haven't taken the survey yet: https://goo.gl/forms/wTLKHc6A4s6OGBsj2 (https://goo.gl/forms/wTLKHc6A4s6OGBsj2)
I think I'm one of the few on this board who expect nothing from this team. I just don't think our roster matches up well with other Big East teams and my guess is we will lose at least 4 non-conference games (Vanderbilt, Michigan, Wisconsin and one team we should not lose to) and then start off the Big East with a lot of losses as the early schedule there is not favorable to MU. I don't see us being ranked at all this season and doubt we will challenge for the tourney.
(And boy would I love to be proven wrong.)
We have not tipped off yet, so of course I think we're in the top 5, in line to win 27 games and be a three seed in the NCAA tournament. The only losses we will have are flukes and Big Fishy and JJJ will battle it out for National POY.
When reefer madness goes away, I just don't know yet how good this team can and will be. There's a lot of things on last year's team that don't exist this year (youthful inexperience and Henry to name two) but I just can't put my finger on how good they are going to be -- yet. Last year, we had that bizarre Europe trip to mislead us into believing our team was really good. This year we just have snippets of the Dayton scrimmage to tease us.
All that said, I'm opting to think this will be a 20 win team again, 11-7 in the Big East and dancing. It's been a very un-Marquette like tournament drought and this is the year it ends. Period!
This is the year where anything is possible. Cleveland won the the NBA championship, the Cubs the WS and now MU will win it all. Why not?
Quote from: muwarrior69 on November 03, 2016, 06:44:58 AM
This is the year where anything is possible. Cleveland won the the NBA championship, the Cubs the WS and now MU will win it all. Why not?
Because those teams were balanced and had top talent. Next question.
I fully understand Norm's trepidation with this team. Last year's deficiencies that stood out were rebounding and defense, both of which will be tougher without a 6'11" NBA player in the middle.
The upside is that we should be a better shooting team. Improved 3PFG% will almost certainly lead to improved eFG%, which will translate to more success. However the team still has to show on the court they are better at shot selection, able to get rebounds as a team, and can play the defense they are planning on while not getting beat up in the Big East.
As far as rankings, the earliest we could be ranked is after NYC with a 4-0 record. That feels unlikely, but beating Vanderbilt would get us votes and having three reasonably significant wins very early would make it an outside shot.
If we lose one of those, then the week after Wisconsin as a 1-loss team. The early season sees wide fluctuations, so a few key wins could do it, but the most likely scenario is we get votes and stick there until Big East play. Then we drop off the radar with our brutal league start and go into Team Bubble Watch mode in the last 10 games of the season.
The nice thing about this team is that any game is winnable with this many three point shooters on the roster. I agree with Brew that the earliest we could be ranked is if we go 4-0, sweeping Vandy, Michigan, and SMU/Pitt. We might end up needing a few more teams to lose after that so it could be after 7-0 with the three cupcakes afterwards.
Assuming we lose one of the first 4 or at Georgia, beating Wisconsin would probably get us ranked as well. Beating Wisconsin might even be enough with 2 losses.
I do think that if we don't get ranked by conference season, we probably won't be ranked at all. The start of BEast play is brutal, I have us going 2-6 in the first 8 games. I then have us winning the next 4 and 7 of the next 8.
Quote from: Marquette4life on November 02, 2016, 05:56:58 PM
Guys, I know we all have high expectations, but come on lets be real. Its been way too long since we have made the tourny. How early in the season could we be ranked? What is our peak this season? And will we make the tourny? If so, what seed.
Try not to be lenient toward MU just because your a fan
Ah, who knows? I just find it interesting how you chose to ask the question while giving us so many clues as to how you want your question answered.
If MU goes without a NCAA bid (likely) and without a NIT bid (increasingly difficult due to new rules), how does this 4 season gap in post-season play rank in history? Might be one of the longest droughts in 50 years...
Quote from: brewcity77 on November 03, 2016, 07:09:18 AM
I fully understand Norm's trepidation with this team. Last year's deficiencies that stood out were rebounding and defense, both of which will be tougher without a 6'11" NBA player in the middle.
The upside is that we should be a better shooting team. Improved 3PFG% will almost certainly lead to improved eFG%, which will translate to more success. However the team still has to show on the court they are better at shot selection, able to get rebounds as a team, and can play the defense they are planning on while not getting beat up in the Big East.
As far as rankings, the earliest we could be ranked is after NYC with a 4-0 record. That feels unlikely, but beating Vanderbilt would get us votes and having three reasonably significant wins very early would make it an outside shot.
If we lose one of those, then the week after Wisconsin as a 1-loss team. The early season sees wide fluctuations, so a few key wins could do it, but the most likely scenario is we get votes and stick there until Big East play. Then we drop off the radar with our brutal league start and go into Team Bubble Watch mode in the last 10 games of the season.
I think our improved ability to protect the ball will likely negate our decreased ability to rebound the ball. Assuming that is correct, I think our improved offensive efficiency due to more makes and improved shot selection should tip the scales in MU's favor in most match ups.
Also regardless of the game results, statistically this team trended upward significantly last season with the non-conference stats looking totally different than the conference stats. I think that is a direct correlation to experience. Yes, we lose Henry but while maybe not the same talent level we've replaced him with players who have far more experience.
Lastly, everyone wants to harp on our lack of height, but I really think the roster flexibility we have and the pace at which we can play as a results will make for some very exciting basketball and a team that exceeds most peoples expectations.
This team has much more experience and much more depth than last year. On the flip side, this team lacks a true number one scoring option (which is made up for with the experienced depth and interchangeable parts).
I do think we will be a much better team this year than last year, but that may not necessarily be reflective in our overall win/loss record.
I am expecting a big year from Luke and Duane, with significant improvement from Cheatham and Traci. I also view us as having much more valuable experience in Katin, JaJuan and Rowsey.
Bottom line, I view us as a bubble team to enter the tournament, with us possibly sneaking in as a Last Four In (finishing between 5-7 in the mighty competitive Big East).
Should be a fun year! Glad that we are almost back!
If MU played 30 secret games, they would be a lock for the secret tourney.
~Preview of coming attractions~
11/6: If MU played 30 exhibition games, they would be a lock for the exhibition tourney.
11/15: If MU played 30 cupcakes, they'd be a a lock for the cupcake tourney
11/18: If MU played UM 30 times, they'd be a lock for the palindrome tourney.
Moral of the Story: Nobody even knows how "real" this team is yet... so it's kind of hard to say how "real" their chances are, but one thing is for certain, the chances of MU making the tourney and/or being ranked is a real number.
I am going to be pretty devastated with another lousy season.
I was spoiled - I was a freshman in 2008, and proceeded to watch MU's best 5 year run since Al. I got used to it, and it got me obsessed with a sport I didn't give two shits about prior to college. These last 3 years have sucked balls...time to be relevant again.
I do fear we are 1 role playing PF away from being a legit team though...and I just wish Wojo would have filled that need. Here is to hoping I am wrong.
Quote from: GoldenWarrior11 on November 03, 2016, 09:35:45 AM
This team has much more experience and much more depth than last year. On the flip side, this team lacks a true number one scoring option (which is made up for with the experienced depth and interchangeable parts).
I do think we will be a much better team this year than last year, but that may not necessarily be reflective in our overall win/loss record.
I am expecting a big year from Luke and Duane, with significant improvement from Cheatham and Traci. I also view us as having much more valuable experience in Katin, JaJuan and Rowsey.
Bottom line, I view us as a bubble team to enter the tournament, with us possibly sneaking in as a Last Four In (finishing between 5-7 in the mighty competitive Big East).
Should be a fun year! Glad that we are almost back!
I agree, in this sense: We have two, Number 1 scoring options: Cheatham and JJJ. Both of those guys should have monster years, and both are capable of getting their shot off almost at will with a high rate of success. Luke and Katin will be strong players too. Traci will be much improved and be a great PG that won't need to score much with true scoring weapons around him in Cheatham, JJJ, Katin and Luke.
While I think Duane is a great representative of MU, and an impressive young man - I just don't see him being more than a role player on this team. He was given a very long leash by Wojo last year, and ultimately did not perform very well, and shot us out of some games, and exercised bad judgment at times taking ill-advised shots given time/score. On the contrary, Duane did make some clutch baskets - yet given his virtual free pass to launch ad naseum - much like Henry last season, by sheer volume you are going to make some shots at critical times.
Quote from: Warrior of Law on November 03, 2016, 08:59:03 AM
If MU goes without a NCAA bid (likely) and without a NIT bid (increasingly difficult due to new rules), how does this 4 season gap in post-season play rank in history? Might be one of the longest droughts in 50 years...
I am confident an NIT bid is likely. Way to many unknowns about this team to say we make the NCAA tourney just yet.
Quote from: mu03eng on November 03, 2016, 09:13:26 AM
I think our improved ability to protect the ball will likely negate our decreased ability to rebound the ball. Assuming that is correct, I think our improved offensive efficiency due to more makes and improved shot selection should tip the scales in MU's favor in most match ups.
Also regardless of the game results, statistically this team trended upward significantly last season with the non-conference stats looking totally different than the conference stats. I think that is a direct correlation to experience. Yes, we lose Henry but while maybe not the same talent level we've replaced him with players who have far more experience.
Lastly, everyone wants to harp on our lack of height, but I really think the roster flexibility we have and the pace at which we can play as a results will make for some very exciting basketball and a team that exceeds most peoples expectations.
I agree with most of this, which is why I would peg us as being in the tourney. But after missing the tournament the past few years and seeing our deficiencies get worse, I don't blame anyone for the wait and see.
Quote from: Benny B on November 03, 2016, 10:14:03 AM
Moral of the Story: Nobody even knows how "real" this team is yet... so it's kind of hard to say how "real" their chances are, but one thing is for certain, the chances of MU making the tourney and/or being ranked is a real number.
(https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/63/66/96/6366960e0e12217a34f667eeb4fcfe30.jpg)
If MU: Rebounds.
Plays defense and creates turnovers.
Shoots well.
Doesn't turn the ball over.
Then MU will go to the tournament.
If MU: Gets blown up at the 4
Can't secure defensive rebounds
Turns the ball over
Shoots poorly
Then MU may not make the NIT.
Pretty simple.
Quote from: tower912 on November 03, 2016, 12:55:20 PM
If MU: Rebounds.
Plays defense and creates turnovers.
Shoots well.
Doesn't turn the ball over.
Then MU will go to the tournament.
I'd argue that Marquette only has to do 3 of those 4 things well to get to the tournament....any 3 will do.
Fair enough. But if the do 3 well and the 4th REALLY poorly, then, IMO, they end up with a season like last year. Decent, but not quite good enough.
Realistically we are an NIT team this year. I would be extremely elated with an NCAA bid, which I do think is possible. We would have to win the majority of close games to achieve this. Failure to get at least an NIT bid would be a problem for me.
Quote from: bilsu on November 03, 2016, 01:54:17 PM
Realistically we are an NIT team this year. I would be extremely elated with an NCAA bid, which I do think is possible. We would have to win the majority of close games to achieve this. Failure to get at least an NIT bid would be a problem for me.
Not sure how you can measure the team as "realistically" being an NIT team. What's your metric on that, how are you determining what is realistic? I mean other than internet opinion parading as "realistic"
Quote from: mu03eng on November 03, 2016, 04:33:30 PM
Not sure how you can measure the team as "realistically" being an NIT team. What's your metric on that, how are you determining what is realistic? I mean other than internet opinion parading as "realistic"
Based on where non MU people are ranking them. One of the predictions posted here had MU at 69th. Plus or minus 10 spots is still an NIT team. That is what I am basing it on. By the way I think we finished ranked at 109 last year, so a ranking of 69th is a significant improvement.
I think we are going to go 0-5 against the 5 tough non conference teams. We won't be blown out but will lose. My sense of the conference season is 7-11 at best. So 14-16 regular season. We simply don't have the coaching horsepower to consistently win at the level required for success.
So to answer the question. It is unrealistic to think we will make the tournament or be ranked. It is possible of course if we win the BET.
I choose to believe you are wrong, but I am not certain you are wrong, and that saddens me.
Quote from: Marquette Fan In NY on November 04, 2016, 08:08:05 AM
I think we are going to go 0-5 against the 5 tough non conference teams. We won't be blown out but will lose. My sense of the conference season is 7-11 at best. So 14-16 regular season. We simply don't have the coaching horsepower to consistently win at the level required for success.
So to answer the question. It is unrealistic to think we will make the tournament or be ranked. It is possible of course if we win the BET.
If we don't have the coaching horsepower to consistently win, we won't win BET.
Quote from: Newsdrms on November 04, 2016, 09:51:17 AM
If we don't have the coaching horsepower to consistently win, we won't win BET.
I do not necessarily agree with the coaching power statement. Wojo is not as bad as some posters think.
However, the Big East tournament is often won by the hot team. Wojo could be a bad coach, but we could still win the tournament if our shooters are hot just like Seton Hall did last year.
I do think we will have momentum going into the BET. The second half of our schedule is very favorable.
Quote from: Marquette Fan In NY on November 04, 2016, 08:08:05 AM
I think we are going to go 0-5 against the 5 tough non conference teams. We won't be blown out but will lose. My sense of the conference season is 7-11 at best. So 14-16 regular season. We simply don't have the coaching horsepower to consistently win at the level required for success.
So to answer the question. It is unrealistic to think we will make the tournament or be ranked. It is possible of course if we win the BET.
If you're right (I don't think you are) Wojo is in trouble. If 2016-17 is a total bust, things won't get a whole lot better in 2017-18 without Luke, JJJ, Katin and maybe Duane. But if we turn the corner this year Wojo could be off to the races. I'll choose "B" and hope and pray to be right.
Quote from: Lennys Tap on November 04, 2016, 12:24:24 PM
If you're right (I don't think you are) Wojo is in trouble. If 2016-17 is a total bust, things won't get a whole lot better in 2017-18 without Luke, JJJ, Katin and maybe Duane. But if we turn the corner this year Wojo could be off to the races. I'll choose "B" and hope and pray to be right.
Perfectly stated. Agree 100%
Quote from: Marquette Fan In NY on November 04, 2016, 08:08:05 AM
I think we are going to go 0-5 against the 5 tough non conference teams. We won't be blown out but will lose. My sense of the conference season is 7-11 at best. So 14-16 regular season. We simply don't have the coaching horsepower to consistently win at the level required for success.
So to answer the question. It is unrealistic to think we will make the tournament or be ranked. It is possible of course if we win the BET.
In my opinion, those numbers are our floor this year (barring the i-word).
I think the athleticism, shooting, depth, strength, and game experience are all better this year than last.
Does rebounding and defense regress? Somewhere between possibly and probably.
Does "coaching" stagnate or regress? Guess it depends on how you want to define that.
In Wojo's first year, MU was outscored 668-590 in the 2nd half and OT of conference games (78 point differential).
Last year, MU was outscored 742-688 (54 point diff).
Some might call that progress, others might call it a bad metric. Either way I don't see coaching errors costing us a lot of games this year. Just my opinion.
Real.
Next question.
Crean sucks