Inspired by the Henry ankle discussion on whether he plays against Butler, I wanted to put together some scenarios for landing a 6th seed or higher to inform how critical a Butler win is on Saturday.
As you should be aware, if we finish 7th or lower in Big East then we have to play 4 games in 4 days including game 2 being less than 20 hours after game 1. So that would be sub-optimal.
Currently we are sitting as the 7th seed (and can't finish worse than that) with the 4 seeds in front of us playing tonight (Wednesday): Creighton at Providence and Seton Hall at Butler. Using KenPom, Providence and Butler are projected to win. If that happens the standings going into Saturday would be
Villanova 15-2
Xavier 13-4
Seton Hall 11-6
Providence 9-8
Creighton 9-8
Butler 9-8
Marquette 8-9
This would mean we'd have to beat Butler to move above the 7th seed.
However, if Creighton and Seton Hall win tonight, the conference looks like this:
Villanova 15-2
Xavier 13-4
Seton Hall 12-5
Creighton 10-7
Marquette 8-9
Providence 8-9
Butler 8-9
Which puts Marquette 5th, beating Butler locks them in at that position. However, if Marquette loses to Butler we would have to hope Providence loses to St Johns on the road so that we would finish tied record wise but ahead on the tie breakers and in 6th.
Bottom line, we need to be Creighton and Seton Hall fans tonight and hope Mr Miyagi can show up at Ellenson's apartment some time this week.
I bet Providence and Seton Hall win tonight.
However, getting that 5 seed would be nice. Playing Nova game 2 would be less than optimal, but I honestly think Georgetown could beat Nova.
Creighton in the opener and Georgetown on its 3rd straight game would be the perfect scenario to get this team to Saturday night.
I'm still holding out hope for a 4-way tie for fourth with Butler, PC, Creighton, and us. We would win that 4-way tie since we would be 5-1 in the mini-conference
Thanks for that breakdown - I was just doing the same thing. However, I believe the best scenario is for Butler to win tonight against Seton Hall, because then we could be playing for the 5-seed Saturday AND get a game against Providence or Creighton, which I would prefer to Seton Hall, Xavier or Villanova.
If Butler wins tonight, but we beat them Saturday then:
we lock our two wins into any three-way tie enabling us to pass other teams, so...
Either Creighton or Providence likely end up in 4th place and the other would likely end up in that three way tie (Providence very likely to win their other game against St. Johns while Creighton very likely to lose at Xavier)
In either scenario our 2-0 against Butler makes use either 3-1 (if Creighton-MU-Butler all 9-9 for 5th with Creighton 2-2 and Butler 1-3 in mini conference) or 4-0 (Providence-Butler-MU)
I want the buy, but in my mind Seton Hall is our toughest matchup, and I'd feel better with a chance to beat Providence or Creighton and then take on Nova and let Xavier get rid of Seton Hall for us.
All a longshot, but that's our best path in my mind.
One thing is for sure, we're basically guaranteed the 7 unless we win Saturday. Butler would beat us to go to 9 wins, and Providence still vs. Creighton and @ SJU and is very likely to win at least one.
I agree that either a Creighton or Providence matchup in the 4/5 game would be ideal. Nova is next, but again, Georgetown could beat them. Sometimes the team that plays the previous night has a bit of an advantage for that game, but the 3rd game in three nights in probably different.
Quote from: mu03eng on March 02, 2016, 10:55:32 AM
Currently we are sitting as the 7th seed (and can't finish worse than that)
Yes we can. It's unlikely but if Georgetown wins and we lose we end up in 8th. Assuming providence doesn't lose twice.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on March 02, 2016, 11:19:00 AM
Yes we can. It's unlikely but if Georgetown wins and we lose we end up in 8th. Assuming providence doesn't lose twice.
You are correct, just didn't want to complicate it that much
Quote from: auburnmarquette on March 02, 2016, 11:09:01 AM
Thanks for that breakdown - I was just doing the same thing. However, I believe the best scenario is for Butler to win tonight against Seton Hall, because then we could be playing for the 5-seed Saturday AND get a game against Providence or Creighton, which I would prefer to Seton Hall, Xavier or Villanova.
If Butler wins tonight, but we beat them Saturday then:
we lock our two wins into any three-way tie enabling us to pass other teams, so...
Either Creighton or Providence likely end up in 4th place and the other would likely end up in that three way tie (Providence very likely to win their other game against St. Johns while Creighton very likely to lose at Xavier)
In either scenario our 2-0 against Butler makes use either 3-1 (if Creighton-MU-Butler all 9-9 for 5th with Creighton 2-2 and Butler 1-3 in mini conference) or 4-0 (Providence-Butler-MU)
I want the buy, but in my mind Seton Hall is our toughest matchup, and I'd feel better with a chance to beat Providence or Creighton and then take on Nova and let Xavier get rid of Seton Hall for us.
All a longshot, but that's our best path in my mind.
You're scenario is certainly a possibility, but given the questions of Henry's ankle I was looking at scenarios that get us a 6th seed or better regardless of what the bracket looks like and/or ideal path to the championship.
Once we have the results from tonight, this all becomes much more clear and we can do the "who do we want to play" math
I'm guessing tonight Providence beats Creighton and SH beats Butler. Then if we beat Butler Saturday, Providence beats StJ, and Creighton loses to X, are we 6th? Does Creighton win the tiebreaker through their previous victory over X? This is what I'm coming up with.
4. Providence 10-8
5. Creighton 9-9
6. Marquette 9-9
7. Butler 8-10
We got this.
This will impact my drinking agenda while in the DR next week. I am assuming that FS1 is carried on satellite to the DR. If not, then FSGO on the Ipad....by the pool.
Quote from: real chili 83 on March 02, 2016, 12:31:22 PM
We got this.
This will impact my drinking agenda while in the DR next week. I am assuming that FS1 is carried on satellite to the DR. If not, then FSGO on the Ipad....by the pool.
When you said DR, I thought for a second you meant delivery room, which is where I will probably be next week.
Quote from: MUDPT on March 02, 2016, 12:36:29 PM
When you said DR, I thought for a second you meant delivery room, which is where I will probably be next week.
Congrats. Call ahead to the nursing station in the delivery ward to see if they have FS1 on the package.
Quote from: drewm88 on March 02, 2016, 12:04:11 PM
I'm guessing tonight Providence beats Creighton and SH beats Butler. Then if we beat Butler Saturday, Providence beats StJ, and Creighton loses to X, are we 6th? Does Creighton win the tiebreaker through their previous victory over X? This is what I'm coming up with.
4. Providence 10-8
5. Creighton 9-9
6. Marquette 9-9
7. Butler 8-10
IF tie breaker is best win, then yes. This looks to me to be the most likely scenario. Would love to avoid the Hall in the first game, though.
Quote from: real chili 83 on March 02, 2016, 12:40:58 PM
Congrats. Call ahead to the nursing station in the delivery ward to see if they have FS1 on the package.
Don't have you baby at Columbia St.Mary's on the lake in MKE. My wife and I had an excruciating labor and delivery there. HORRIBLE cable package with no ESPN / Fox Sports Net. This was in September 2010, so we missed a ton of college football + Brewers games. The US Open on CBS is the only thing that got us through.
Quote from: mu03eng on March 02, 2016, 11:32:56 AM
You're scenario is certainly a possibility, but given the questions of Henry's ankle I was looking at scenarios that get us a 6th seed or better regardless of what the bracket looks like and/or ideal path to the championship.
Once we have the results from tonight, this all becomes much more clear and we can do the "who do we want to play" math
Yes, I admit I'm just paranoid about Seton Hall and for some reason am more scared of a match-up with them then even Xavier or Nova. I know this is wrong, but I'd rather be #7 than 6 or 8.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 02, 2016, 01:00:19 PM
IF tie breaker is best win, then yes. This looks to me to be the most likely scenario. Would love to avoid the Hall in the first game, though.
Boy or girl???
Quote from: The Lens on March 02, 2016, 01:01:56 PM
Don't have you baby at Columbia St.Mary's on the lake in MKE. My wife and I had an excruciating labor and delivery there. HORRIBLE cable package with no ESPN / Fox Sports Net. This was in September 2010, so we missed a ton of college football + Brewers games. The US Open on CBS is the only thing that got us through.
I had to watch the Marquette-Iowa on stream with questionable wifi at St Joe's, I thought I was going to die
Butler dominating Seton Hall at halftime 43-28
Quote from: WarriorPride68 on March 02, 2016, 08:21:19 PM
Butler dominating Seton Hall at halftime 43-28
Hall totally back in game down 5.
Quote from: SaveOD238 on March 02, 2016, 11:06:18 AM
I'm still holding out hope for a 4-way tie for fourth with Butler, PC, Creighton, and us. We would win that 4-way tie since we would be 5-1 in the mini-conference
This.
4-seed is still on the table, boys.
Butler wins by 7. Great game.
Quote from: Benny B on March 02, 2016, 09:21:18 PM
This.
4-seed is still on the table, boys.
That would require PC to win here and lose to SJU sat. Seems unlikely.
Creighton win clinches the 4 spot for them. A win for us a Sat and we win any tie breakers w PC and Butler. We finish 5 and play Creighton. Hope for GT to beat Nova.
Prov win means they'll likely finish 4. MU wins three way tie breaker between Butler, Creighton and MU w 3-1 record in mini conf.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 02, 2016, 09:51:26 PM
Hope for GT to beat Nova.
The team that is 1-8 in last 9 with lone win over St.Johns? That's a lot of hoping :)
Quote from: WarriorPride68 on March 02, 2016, 10:03:11 PM
The team that is 1-8 in last 9 with lone win over St.Johns? That's a lot of hoping :)
Meh. Sort of, but Georgetown isn't a bad team. Playing Nova for the 2nd time in 5 days. 2nd time on a neutral court. I'd be surprised but not shocked.
Providence wins by 4.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 02, 2016, 10:04:38 PM
Meh. Sort of, but Georgetown isn't a bad team. Playing Nova for the 2nd time in 5 days. 2nd time on a neutral court. I'd be surprised but not shocked.
14-16 is pretty bad. No?
Quote from: WarriorPride68 on March 02, 2016, 10:12:13 PM
14-16 is pretty bad. No?
I dunno, DSR, Copeland and Peak are all pretty decent. Any chance Hayes plays? The problem is JT3 sucks so much.
Quote from: WarriorPride68 on March 02, 2016, 10:12:13 PM
14-16 is pretty bad. No?
Have you watched them play? I'm less concerned about record than I am about the eye test. Georgetown had a tough year, but they're a very talented team. I have no doubt that they could beat Nova on a N court.
Quote from: ChitownSpaceForRent on March 02, 2016, 10:13:04 PM
I dunno, DSR, Copeland and Peak are all pretty decent. Any chance Hayes plays? The problem is JT3 sucks so much.
Decent? Try very good.
Derickson and Govan also very good looking freshman bigs.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 02, 2016, 10:14:40 PM
Have you watched them play? I'm less concerned about record than I am about the eye test. Georgetown had a tough year, but they're a very talented team. I have no doubt that they could beat Nova on a N court.
No, I have never seen them play
Peak, Copeland, Smith-Rivera are all great.
JT3 & injuries are not helping this team at all right now. Lost 5 in a row & 8 of 9. I just don't see them beating Nova. They hung with them when they were playing great & healthy. Not the case now. Just my opinion
Quote from: WarriorPride68 on March 02, 2016, 10:20:38 PM
No, I have never seen them play
Peak, Copeland, Smith-Rivera are all great.
JT3 & injuries are not helping this team at all right now. Lost 5 in a row & 8 of 9. I just don't see them beating Nova. They hung with them when they were playing great & healthy. Not the case now. Just my opinion
I don't see it happening either, but it's possible. Hard to beat a team twice in 5 days. Team coming off a game the previous night can sometimes be a positive for that 1st game too. To be fair, I said Hope GT beats Nova, not GT will bear Nova.
But the Hoyas are much much better than their record.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 02, 2016, 10:16:11 PM
Decent? Try very good.
Derickson and Govan also very good looking freshman bigs.
Derrickson is gonna piss me off for another 3 years, already know it.
Anyways, looks like MU will play PC if they win Sat. MU would win tie breakers and finish 5. Only way that changes is if Prov loses to SJU Saturday.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 02, 2016, 10:29:46 PM
Anyways, looks like MU will play PC if they win Sat. MU would win tie breakers and finish 5. Only way that changes is if Prov loses to SJU Saturday.
Really don't wanna play PC for a 3rd time.
Quote from: ChitownSpaceForRent on March 02, 2016, 10:31:55 PM
Really don't wanna play PC for a 3rd time.
Me either. Much rather play Creighton. I wanted them to win tonight. Bottom line tho, MUs going to have to play and beat good teams to make a run, so...
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 02, 2016, 10:33:44 PM
Me either. Much rather play Creighton. I wanted them to win tonight. Bottom line tho, MUs going to have to play and beat good teams to make a run, so...
I'd be fine with PC. They can definitely beat us, but they are an awful shooting team and we concede a lot of open 3s. If Henry is healthy we have 2 big bodies to throw and Bentil. The rest of their team is switchables who can't shoot and Cartwright, who I like.
So basically at this point we need to beat butler to get a bye and if we lose we dont get one, correct?
Quote from: niquejamesfan on March 02, 2016, 11:07:33 PM
So basically at this point we need to beat butler to get a bye and if we lose we dont get one, correct?
Correct. We can also get a higher seed if we win and Creighton and Providence both lose.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on March 02, 2016, 11:17:42 PM
Correct. We can also get a higher seed if we win and Creighton and Providence both lose.
If we win, were at least 6th. If we win and either Creighton or Providence loses, were 5. If both lose, were the 4.
Quote from: Benny B on March 02, 2016, 09:21:18 PM
This.
4-seed is still on the table, boys.
We'd have to beat Butler and Providence would have to lose to St Johns...so unlikely, but possible.
The question is, if this scenario plays out, is the BEast a 3 bid conference? Is there precedent for the committee to take a team that finished lower in conference standings over a high finishing team?
Quote from: mu03eng on March 03, 2016, 07:30:12 AM
We'd have to beat Butler and Providence would have to lose to St Johns...so unlikely, but possible.
The question is, if this scenario plays out, is the BEast a 3 bid conference? Is there precedent for the committee to take a team that finished lower in conference standings over a high finishing team?
I know it's happened before, can't tell you when, but it has.
Quote from: mu03eng on March 03, 2016, 07:30:12 AM
We'd have to beat Butler and Providence would have to lose to St Johns...so unlikely, but possible.
The question is, if this scenario plays out, is the BEast a 3 bid conference? Is there precedent for the committee to take a team that finished lower in conference standings over a high finishing team?
Butler is probably in now. I suppose back to back losses to MU and SJU (assuming they end uup in 7/10 game w/ loss to us) may push them out, though. I'd also be shocked to see Providence not make the tourney. They're probably in with a win this weekend and loss in the 4/5 game in the BET.
I do think its likely that either Butler or Providence is in the play in game, even though I don't think they should be. The BE getting less than 5 teams in would be silly.