MUScoop

Next Three games

Creighton Sat Feb 13 7PM
at Depaul Sat Feb 20 1PM
at Creighton Wed Feb  24 7PM

Currently we are 16 - 9 (5 - 7)

After last night's win, if we have any chance at post season (NCAA, not NIT) we have to win the next three "winnable" games,  That way we can get to 19-9 (8-7) going into Feb 27 against #1 Nova.

So what probability do you think we will the next three? 

I said 61% to 80%

I said 41% - 60%.
@Creighton is a real tough place to play, and home vs Creighton is no walk in the park either.
I refuse to even consider us losing to DePaul twice in one season.

Probability? Based on Pomeroy's model, it would be 4.04%.

Creighton's good.   MU is playing better, but all 3 is a big ask.    1-20%

Quote from: DJOs Jaw on February 11, 2016, 01:47:26 PM
I refuse to even consider us losing to DePaul twice in one season.

Going 0-4 vs DePaul & Seton Hall would be man tears worthy

I'll take a split with Creighton

My honest expectation is we take 2/3, though that feels optimistic. Creighton is a funny team. Some nights they are absolute destroyers (wins over Xavier, GT, Seton Hall) and other nights you figure they've got it and they puke on their shoes (losses to GT, SHU, Loyola).

Quote from: brewcity77 on February 11, 2016, 02:07:56 PM
My honest expectation is we take 2/3, though that feels optimistic. Creighton is a funny team. Some nights they are absolute destroyers (wins over Xavier, GT, Seton Hall) and other nights you figure they've got it and they puke on their shoes (losses to GT, SHU, Loyola).

I agree with 77.  I think, at worst, project a split with Creighton, and pray that they don't poop the mattress against DePaul again.

I will go even further and say that the probable outcomes, in order of probability are:

2-1 - 40%
3-0 - 25.01%
1-2 - 24.99%
0-3 - 10%

I said 40-60%, which is probably optimistic.  I think we'll win Saturday and against Depaul next weekend. @ Creighton is going to be tough.  Realistically have to take all three to hold onto any chance of an at large (no, not giving up). 

I say about 15%. Creighton is real good.

Quote from: brewcity77 on February 11, 2016, 01:50:07 PM
Probability? Based on Pomeroy's model, it would be 4.04%.

This is (approximately) the correct answer. But we're playing better of late so anythings possible.

Quote from: TAMU Eagle on February 11, 2016, 03:30:09 PM
I say about 15%. Creighton is real good.

I think this is the correct answer.

60% vs creighton
60% @ DePaul
40% @ CU

That's about 15%.

Quote from: AirPunch on February 11, 2016, 04:27:14 PM
I think this is the correct answer.

60% vs creighton
60% @ DePaul
40% @ CU

That's about 15%.

FWIW, Kenpom has it as follows:

Creighton - 44%
DePaul - 51%
@ Creighton 18%

He had the PC game last night at about 45% IIRC

In all honesty, while 4.04% is the number Pomeroy would give, I do think the chances are better than that. I think we match up decently with Creighton as long as there isn't some abnormal three shooting (like XU's 1/21). I think Fischer and Henry match up well with Huff and Groselle and they aren't as lights out from three as they've been in years past. As far as DePaul, they shouldn't have been with us as long as they were and Luke didn't foul Garrett at the end.

Creighton is good, but not unbeatable. They also aren't invincible at home. I think it's probably about 25% that we get all three, but it is possible.

What were the chances of us winning @ Providence?  Or losing at home to DePaul?

Bunch of really talented frosh, with a couple of pretty good sophs and juniors.  I give us somewhere between 0-100%.  But don't quote me on that.