Fischer, JJJ or Cheatham Could Join Ellenson in NBA to keep MU in Top 15 NBA FactoriesValue Add updated the chance of players making the NBA last night, and the odds are that at least one of three players - Luke Fischer (35%), JuJuan Johnson (21%) and/or Haanif Cheatham (16%) will join Henry Ellenson in the NBA one day. Since 2003, MU has averaged having 2.5 future NBA players on each roster - the 15th best total in the country.
In the days ahead we will be updating the
historic database to indicate the last year each player appeared in the NBA. One interesting note in building this database is that steals were not as big a predictor as in the past, while rebounding, blocked shots, two-point shots and the ability to get to the line all separate future NBA players from the very good college players that do NOT make the NBA:
| Average Player Performance 2003-2016 | OR% | DR% | Blk% | Stl% | FTRate | 2-pt % |
|---|
| 1500 top players who did not make NBA | 3.46 | 11.10 | 0.86 | 2.23 | 36.35 | 47% |
| Possible players | 6.97 | 14.83 | 3.17 | 1.82 | 42.37 | 51% |
| Future NBA average | 7.08 | 14.74 | 3.08 | 2.17 | 42.09 | 51% |
| NBA Center | 11.62 | 19.81 | 6.86 | 1.61 | 51.65 | 55% |
| NBA PF | 9.60 | 17.95 | 3.99 | 1.83 | 44.11 | 53% |
| NBA PG | 2.80 | 9.57 | 0.76 | 2.76 | 39.42 | 48% |
| NBA SF | 7.01 | 14.80 | 2.66 | 2.09 | 38.90 | 51% |
| NBA SG | 4.68 | 11.91 | 1.36 | 2.54 | 36.91 | 49% |
The 1500 seasons in which a player was on the court a bit more than 80% of the time but did NOT ultimately make the NBA, resulted in the average percentages on the top line.
MU is credited for 1.63 future NBA players on the current roster (adding the percent chance each player makes it), while last year's team is credited for 0.56 with Fischer and Johnson on that team as well. If Matt Carlino were to make the jump it would add a player to 2015.
As we go back earlier, we see that MU's 2011 team had FIVE future NBA players, though only Jae Crowder and Jimmy Butler played more than a few games. The first year in the database, the 2003 Final Four team, featured only three future NBA players, but all three had extended careers.
| College Yr | NBA Last Year or % |
|---|
| Ellenson, Henry 13 | 2016 | 91% |
| Fischer, Luke 40 | 2016 | 35% |
| Johnson, JaJuan 23 | 2016 | 21% |
| Cheatham, Haanif 25 | 2016 | 16% |
| Total estimated 2016 team | | 1.63 |
| Fischer, Luke 40 | 2015 | 35% |
| Johnson, JaJuan 23 | 2015 | 21% |
| Total estimated 2015 team | | 0.56 |
| Crowder, Jae 32 | 2012 | 2016 |
| Butler, Jimmy 33 | 2011 | 2016 |
| Crowder, Jae 32 | 2011 | 2016 |
| Butler, Jimmy 33 | 2010 | 2016 |
| Butler, Jimmy 33 | 2009 | 2016 |
| Matthews, Wesley 23 | 2009 | 2016 |
| Matthews, Wesley 23 | 2008 | 2016 |
| Matthews, Wesley 23 | 2007 | 2016 |
| Novak, Steve | 2006 | 2016 |
| Matthews, Wesley | 2006 | 2016 |
| Novak, Steve | 2005 | 2016 |
| Novak, Steve | 2004 | 2016 |
| Wade, Dwyane | 2003 | 2016 |
| Novak, Steve | 2003 | 2016 |
| Blue, Vander 13 | 2013 | 2015 |
| Blue, Vander 2 | 2012 | 2015 |
| Blue, Vander 2 | 2011 | 2015 |
| Buycks, Dwight 23 | 2011 | 2015 |
| Buycks, Dwight 23 | 2010 | 2015 |
| McNeal, Jerel 22 | 2009 | 2015 |
| McNeal, Jerel 22 | 2008 | 2015 |
| McNeal, Jerel 22 | 2007 | 2015 |
| McNeal, Jerel | 2006 | 2015 |
| Johnson-Odom, Darius 1 | 2012 | 2014 |
| Johnson-Odom, Darius 1 | 2011 | 2014 |
| Johnson-Odom, Darius 1 | 2010 | 2014 |
| Hayward, Lazar 32 | 2010 | 2013 |
| Hayward, Lazar 32 | 2009 | 2013 |
| Hayward, Lazar 32 | 2008 | 2013 |
| Hayward, Lazar 32 | 2007 | 2013 |
| Diener, Travis | 2005 | 2010 |
| Diener, Travis | 2004 | 2010 |
| Diener, Travis | 2003 | 2010 |
| Estimated 2.5 future NBA/season | | |
Over those seasons MU had 33 players on the roster who made the NBA - understanding that a four-year player like Lazar Hayward counts as four. The current players add a total of 2.2 anticipated spots based on adding the percentages from last year.
While some teams have many more one-and-dones, the fact that MU has had so many players stay through their senior year and then make it to the NBA has led to a roster that averages 2.5 future NBA players each season.
The Blue Bloods are higher - led by an incredible average of 5.1 per Duke roster - but the vast majority of schools do not see the number of future NBA players on the court as we see at the Bradley Center.
| Rnk | School since 2003 | Future NBA/Year | Total |
|---|
| 1 | Duke | 5.1 | 71.9 |
| 2 | Kansas | 4.9 | 68.1 |
| 3 | North Carolina | 4.7 | 66.4 |
| 4 | Kentucky | 4.7 | 66.3 |
| 5 | UCLA | 3.5 | 49.0 |
| 6 | Connecticut | 3.1 | 43.6 |
| 7 | Washington | 3.0 | 41.9 |
| 8 | Syracuse | 3.0 | 41.6 |
| 9 | Arizona | 3.0 | 41.4 |
| 10 | Michigan St. | 2.9 | 40.7 |
| 11 | Louisville | 2.8 | 38.5 |
| 12 | Memphis | 2.7 | 37.4 |
| 13 | Notre Dame | 2.5 | 35.5 |
| 14 | Florida | 2.5 | 35.5 |
| 15 | Marquette | 2.5 | 35.2 |
| 16 | Georgetown | 2.5 | 34.9 |
| 17 | Texas | 2.5 | 34.5 |
| 18 | Michigan | 2.4 | 33.4 |
| 19 | Gonzaga | 2.1 | 29.3 |
| 20 | Wisconsin | 2.0 | 27.4 |
| 21 | Georgia Tech | 1.9 | 26.8 |
| 22 | LSU | 1.8 | 25.4 |
| 23 | Oklahoma St. | 1.8 | 25.3 |
| 24 | Villanova | 1.8 | 24.7 |
| 25 | Florida St. | 1.8 | 24.6 |
| 26 | Maryland | 1.7 | 23.9 |
| 27 | Vanderbilt | 1.6 | 22.7 |
| 28 | Iowa St. | 1.6 | 22.0 |
| 29 | Colorado | 1.6 | 21.8 |
| 30 | Illinois | 1.5 | 21.5 |
| 31 | California | 1.5 | 21.0 |
| 32 | Virginia | 1.5 | 21.0 |
| 33 | Purdue | 1.4 | 20.3 |
| 34 | USC | 1.4 | 19.9 |
| 35 | Georgia | 1.4 | 19.6 |
| 36 | Tennessee | 1.4 | 19.3 |
| 37 | Indiana | 1.4 | 19.2 |
| 38 | North Carolina St. | 1.4 | 19.0 |
| 39 | Pittsburgh | 1.4 | 19.0 |
| 40 | Texas A and M | 1.3 | 18.1 |
| 41 | Arkansas | 1.3 | 17.9 |
| 42 | Missouri | 1.3 | 17.7 |
| 43 | Nevada | 1.2 | 17.0 |
| 44 | New Mexico | 1.2 | 17.0 |
| 45 | Miami FL | 1.2 | 16.9 |
| 46 | Stanford | 1.2 | 16.4 |
| 47 | Oregon | 1.1 | 16.0 |
| 48 | Alabama | 1.1 | 15.7 |
| 49 | Wake Forest | 1.1 | 15.4 |
| 50 | Ohio St. | 1.1 | 15.3 |
Source: Fischer, JJJ or Cheatham Could Join Ellenson in NBA to keep MU in Top 15 NBA Factories (http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2016/02/fischer-jjj-or-cheatham-could-join.html)
Sometimes -- oftentimes -- the "eye test" is far superior to any stats.
IMHO ...
Luke has about 10% chance of being an NBA player. Too slow and mechanical, not nearly strong enough, no face-up game. He plays "smaller" than he is against many college post players not nearly as tall as he is; every NBA roster has 3-4 players like that. I am really glad Luke is a Warrior and, unlike some, I do think he has improved. But it's a major leap from decent college big to NBA big, and his game does not fit what most NBA teams want in their bigs today.
JJJ has about 20% chance. I actually would have said less, but I was so wrong about Buycks that I'll allow that maybe I'm not fully assessing JJJ's potential.
Haanif has the best chance of the three because he is a freshman with talent who already logs significant minutes and has 3 more years to develop his game and his body. Too early to put a percentage on it, though.
Quote from: MU82 on February 05, 2016, 08:53:27 AM
Sometimes -- oftentimes -- the "eye test" is far superior to any stats.
IMHO ...
Luke has about 10% chance of being an NBA player. Too slow and mechanical, not nearly strong enough, no face-up game. He plays "smaller" than he is against many college post players not nearly as tall as he is; every NBA roster has 3-4 players like that. I am really glad Luke is a Warrior and, unlike some, I do think he has improved. But it's a major leap from decent college big to NBA big, and his game does not fit what most NBA teams want in their bigs today.
JJJ has about 20% chance. I actually would have said less, but I was so wrong about Buycks that I'll allow that maybe I'm not fully assessing JJJ's potential.
Haanif has the best chance of the three because he is a freshman with talent who already logs significant minutes and has 3 more years to develop his game and his body. Too early to put a percentage on it, though.
I am happy we have Luke and agree with most of your points on him . The only thing I would add is Size can't be taught and he has it , and that gives him a chance at making the next level albeit small.
JJJ had a high ceiling . We are just seeing him scratch the surface . He has length, court vision , quickness ,is a very good passer and is excellent in transition . He has a left and should start using it more. If he continues to make progress at the rate he did this year he could be a classic late bloomer. He has embraced the coaches philosophy and is going to be a beneficiary of their experience.
Haanif has the tools as You pointed out. He has to keep progressing at a steady rate in strength and experience.
Quote from: Marquette Fan In NY on February 05, 2016, 09:52:12 AM
I am happy we have Luke and agree with most of your points on him . The only thing I would add is Size can't be taught and he has it , and that gives him a chance at making the next level albeit small.
JJJ had a high ceiling . We are just seeing him scratch the surface . He has length, court vision , quickness ,is a very good passer and is excellent in transition . He has a left and should start using it more. If he continues to make progress at the rate he did this year he could be a classic late bloomer. He has embraced the coaches philosophy and is going to be a beneficiary of their experience.
Haanif has the tools as You pointed out. He has to keep progressing at a steady rate in strength and experience.
Haanif has an excellent chance to be an NBA player as a legit 6'5" PG with some outside shooting ability. He obviously needs to work on his court vision and decision-making while adding some bulk, but he's got the height and potential. Give it time and he's going to be a star (in college, at least).
Much like with Blue and Jamil, for either Luke or JJJ to be an NBA player, they need to develop a niche. These guys all
max out as NBA "rotation players" (i.e. the 8-10th man) but are much more likely to find themselves as end-of-the-bench guys if they reach that level. For the most part, that type of player can catch onto an NBA roster because they have one aspect of their game that is NBA-caliber - shooting, scoring, rebounding, ball-handling, being big, etc. Right now, I simply don't see it.
Quote from: MU82 on February 05, 2016, 08:53:27 AM
Luke... has no face-up game.
As far as I've seen, he is 2 for 2 in his Marquette career on 12'-15' jumpers.
Quote from: TSmith34 on February 05, 2016, 12:36:00 PM
As far as I've seen, he is 2 for 2 in his Marquette career on 12'-15' jumpers.
Nope. He missed one early this season from the same spot he hit that one the other night.
But still, he's shooting 66.6% on them.
Soon enough, he'll be hoistin' up 3s!
Quote from: TSmith34 on February 05, 2016, 12:36:00 PM
As far as I've seen, he is 2 for 2 in his Marquette career on 12'-15' jumpers.
Did you include the fall away against ASU last year?
Quote from: MU82 on February 05, 2016, 08:53:27 AM
Sometimes -- oftentimes -- the "eye test" is far superior to any stats.
IMHO ...
Luke has about 10% chance of being an NBA player.
About a month ago 82 you said "no way/no how" regarding Luke's NBA chances. I see you are coming around now with the 10% chance!
I believe Luke will continue to improve--as he has already--and get a shot at an NBA team.
~7' who is athletic and has moves with either hand from either block will garner more attention but end of next year.
Quote from: We R Final Four on February 05, 2016, 02:50:12 PM
About a month ago 82 you said "no way/no how" regarding Luke's NBA chances. I see you are coming around now with the 10% chance!
I believe Luke will continue to improve--as he has already--and get a shot at an NBA team.
~7' who is athletic and has moves with either hand from either block will garner more attention but end of next year.
True, back-to-the-basket big men are becoming extinct in the current NBA.
Quote from: We R Final Four on February 05, 2016, 02:50:12 PM
About a month ago 82 you said "no way/no how" regarding Luke's NBA chances. I see you are coming around now with the 10% chance!
I believe Luke will continue to improve--as he has already--and get a shot at an NBA team.
~7' who is athletic and has moves with either hand from either block will garner more attention but end of next year.
Honestly, I typed 0.1% but then I realized that was being too certain about an unknown so I changed it to 10%. But I really do think it's closer to the former than the latter.
Unless a big man has extraordinary rebounding skills or post moves or athletic ability or all three, a big as limited as Luke has little chance.
I applaud you on your memory of my past posts, however.
Luke has a much better chance of going to the NBA than JJJ.
Quote from: wadesworld on February 05, 2016, 03:13:10 PM
Luke has a much better chance of going to the NBA than JJJ.
I don't know what NBA skill that JJJ has. He has averaged less than 7 pts and about 2.2 rebounds a game on a very offensively challenged team. Not to mention a lack of strength and elite defensive ability.
HC has a chance if he can make adjustments to his game. the physical skills/quickness are there. I think he could be a very good defensive player in time. Be offensively, at least right now, he only does two things - drive to the hoop and hit the open three. No continuity within the offense and absolutely no mid-range game. With his quickness, if he knew how to pull up for the 12'-14' after getting by the first defender, he would be deadly and could be a 16-20 point scorer in college.
I think Luke has a chance, but only as a big body 11th or 12th man on a roster.
Quote from: wadesworld on February 05, 2016, 03:13:10 PM
Luke has a much better chance of going to the NBA than JJJ.
I guess we'll find out 16-20 months from now if either of them has a chance in hell. My educated guess is no.
At least the few who think Luke does have a chance aren't claiming he'd school Dirk, so we're making progress here.
I think Luke could get a shot in the NBA simply because of his frame and because he does have a few high level skills. He's a good shot-blocker and his hook is reliable and hard to defend. I'm not at all saying he's a front-line NBA player, but based on having a few talents and the right body I think someone will give him a chance.
Could he stick? I'm not sure about that. Just doesn't seem to have the strength or athleticism. I definitely think he'll flirt with the league and could get a cup of coffee, but I don't see him as a long-term NBA guy.
JJ...well, I get the Buycks argument (though I was one of the few that said he had a shot at the NBA while he was still here) but the reason DB got a shot is because he transformed himself into a PG. I couldn't see JJ going that route, and feel he's probably just a hair or two off of being what the league wants in a 2/3. Not quite big enough, not quite strong enough, not quite a good enough shooter.
I'd say of the players mentioned, Haney has the best chance. He's got a good looking jumper and a legitimate go-to move. He is also a very good defender. He'd need to develop his right and improve his all-around game, but if you can shoot, drive, and defend, that's a good start.
Outside chance, I'd say that Duane could get there too. He'd need to prove he can go the Buycks route and become a PG though. Can't see him making it at any other position.