Ellenson 31st Best Defender; MU with 4 in top 15%It sounds like I depressed fans with Henry Ellenson's
Value Add Ranking, and it slipped even further to 405th after the Stetson game. However, in response to the question about why his blocked shots and rebounds do not push him higher - the new run tonight shows he is actually the 32nd best Defensive Player in the Value Add system for taking almost three points per hundred trips a game away from opponents (-2.69, average is 0.00).
| Rnk | Player and Number | OffR | DefR | Pts/Gm |
|---|
| 100 | Fischer, Luke 40 | 7.29 | -0.8 | 6.2 |
| 405 | Ellenson, Henry 13 | 2.24 | -2.69 | 4.05 |
| 525 | Cohen, Sandy 5 | 3.33 | -0.9 | 3.57 |
| 539 | Wilson, Duane 1 | 3.31 | -0.66 | 3.51 |
Offensively, he is ranked only 1224th in the nation - improving the team by 2.24 points a game, due to low shooting percentages and turnovers offsetting his points. Duane Wilson and the very efficient Sandy Cohen are the two Marquette players with higher rankings because they miss so many fewer shots.
Luke Fischer has a nice balance, and snuck back into the top 100 overall.
He helps make Marquette be one of 55 teams with four players in the top 15% of players (top 600). Arizona and Iowa have the most complete rotations with 7 players each.
7 top 100 players (2 teams)
Arizona
Iowa
6 top 100 players (6 teams)
Miami FL
North Carolina
Southern California
Southern Methodist
Villanova
West Virginia
5 top 100 players (25 total teams)
Baylor
Butler
Cincinnati
Creighton
Duke
Florida
Indiana
Iowa St.
Kentucky
Louisville
Maryland
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pittsburgh
Purdue
Seton Hall
South Carolina
St. Mary's
Syracuse
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Xavier
4 top 100 players (22 teams)
Akron
Alabama
Arizona St.
Arkansas
Brigham Young
California
Clemson
Connecticut
Dayton
Florida St.
Georgia Tech
Houston
Kansas
Marquette
Memphis
Michigan
Michigan St.
Ohio St.
Stanford
Texas
UCLA
Wisconsin
Source: Ellenson 31st Best Defender; MU with 4 in top 15% (http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2016/01/ellenson-31st-best-defender-mu-with-4.html)
So all the people complaining about Henry's defense (myself included) are mistaken? That's hilarious. I have to say that, I'm surprised. If you had asked me which part of Henry's game was more refined, I would have said offense without thinking about it.
Stats lie. Except when
They tell the truth. Still they lie.
Unless they are true.
Does the methodology factor in the competition? Against cupcakes I would think the numbers would look better. And where is Providence?
Serious question. Is there a stat for running at a shooter at the 3 pt line, shooter fakes the shot and blows by HE and either drives to the basket, dishes to the middle after Luke or others come over to help, or draws a foul on MU because it is now 5 on 4?
If the shooter would have shot the 3, and HE would have blocked it, it would add to his defensive greatness.
I understand blocking shots prohibits the opposing team from scoring. I get that rebounding the ball after a missed shot prohibits the other team from potentially scoring again.
But, HE is the 31st best defender in the country? Sure he is--the stats bear it out I guess.
When this type of thing comes out it makes it very difficult to "defend" stats as relevant. If the statistics say Henry is a top 40 defender...then the calculation is wrong. For every block he has he gives up 4 blow bys. Not to mention the majority of his damage on defense is done because of his poor/late rotations and help. Henry gets out of position which forces someone else to help which then gives an open look. Compounding it is that now everyone is out of position for rebounding so we give us a lot of offensive rebounds.
Sometimes stats are just wrong.
Henry might not even be the 31st best defensive player enrolled at Marquette right now.
Is this the same methodology that gave Vander bad defensive numbers because he didn't take enough charges?
Do these numbers factor in man defense, or simply look at measurable metrics like blocks and defensive rebounds? Is there a measurement of shooting percentage of the guy Henry is defending, or their ability to get to the rim when he's isolated on them in man?
It's true that Henry isn't a good on ball defender - but he gets a boatload of defensive rebounds and blocks or alters a lot of shots - and unlike Luke he does it without fouling.
Quote from: mu03eng on January 29, 2016, 07:47:30 AM
When this type of thing comes out it makes it very difficult to "defend" stats as relevant. If the statistics say Henry is a top 40 defender...then the calculation is wrong. For every block he has he gives up 4 blow bys. Not to mention the majority of his damage on defense is done because of his poor/late rotations and help. Henry gets out of position which forces someone else to help which then gives an open look. Compounding it is that now everyone is out of position for rebounding so we give us a lot of offensive rebounds.
Sometimes stats are just wrong.
Agreed. Yet another example of why some of the newer stats are just reaching to find relevance.
I know I'm a little sick, and synical, but are we playing to win or look good in the stats?
Quote from: MU82 on January 29, 2016, 09:36:10 AM
Agreed. Yet another example of why some of the newer stats are just reaching to find relevance.
Individual defensive metrics are tough because there are so many external factors involved - zone, traps, switches, help, match-ups, game-planning, etc. In addition, if a team's top defender is constantly guarding an opposing team's top offensive player, it's highly likely that his defensive metrics are going to be worse than a poor defender who spends most of the season matched-up with an opponent's offensive weak link.
Overall team defensive metrics have some merit and I'd even go with line-up metrics if you want to drill down, but at the individual level, I don't put much credence in these stats.
I don't need stats to tell me that Henry is a good defender. The eye test is the one I trust the most and he is not a top 32 defender. Maybe in the Big East. I am guessing the metric is flawed in some way and probably favors blocks and rebounding way too much.
Quote from: mufanatic on January 29, 2016, 01:32:36 PM
I don't need stats to tell me that Henry is a good defender. The eye test is the one I trust the most and he is not a top 32 defender. Maybe in the Big East. I am guessing the metric is flawed in some way and probably favors blocks and rebounding way too much.
Agreed. He does a good job on blocks, but he does have difficulty guarding bigs/and not so bigs.