MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: Henry Sugar on January 22, 2016, 01:54:34 PM
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MU remains very young
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZWPwVKWIAAKJSt.png)
They are extremely inconsistent, both offensively and defensively
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZWRihNWEAUferr.png)
Right now, projections are that MU wins only one or two more conference games. Of course, this projection is almost useless because of how inconsistent the team has been.
(http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee41/roblowe14/a6822f46-8796-480c-ac1b-c245f6793571.png) (http://s228.photobucket.com/user/roblowe14/media/a6822f46-8796-480c-ac1b-c245f6793571.png.html)
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Good stuff, as always.
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MU remains very young
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZWPwVKWIAAKJSt.png)
They are extremely inconsistent, both offensively and defensively
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZWRihNWEAUferr.png)
Right now, projections are that MU wins only one or two more conference games. Of course, this projection is almost useless because of how inconsistent the team has been.
(http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee41/roblowe14/a6822f46-8796-480c-ac1b-c245f6793571.png) (http://s228.photobucket.com/user/roblowe14/media/a6822f46-8796-480c-ac1b-c245f6793571.png.html)
I assume the Villanova game is when the offensive and defensive eff both peaked?
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Young=Inconsistent. Thanks for proof of the young concept. Add in that our experienced players are Fischer who really has now played a season of college ball, and Wally, and that says a lot
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I assume the Villanova game is when the offensive and defensive eff both peaked?
Providence was the peak
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Providence was the peak
Interesting, do you think that is a reflection of us playing really well, Providence playing poorly or some combination thereof?
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And .. what is the difference between a .9 experience team and a 1.8, where the average is?
Any correlation to offensive or defensive output? Turnovers, steals, eFG?
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And .. what is the difference between a .9 experience team and a 1.8, where the average is?
I believe that is the available number of years experience per player on the team.
Team A has 4 seniors, 3 juniors, 2 sophomores, and 3 freshmen they would have roughly a 2.43
Team B has 1 senior, 2 juniors, 5 sophomores, 4 freshmen they would have roughly a 1.85
I took a rough estimate as I believe that stat is actually used counting games played within a year and the numbers not just years in program.
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rough correlation, will have to do an actual statistical correlation/regression analysis when I have some time.
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And .. what is the difference between a .9 experience team and a 1.8, where the average is?
Any correlation to offensive or defensive output? Turnovers, steals, eFG?
I doubt there is any correlation to Pomeroy ranking or any of the factors. From the chart posted by mu03eng, there doesn't look like a correlation.
There might be a correlation between experience and luck (inexperienced teams are unluckier). I believe that Dan Hanner has previously analyzed experience and found more defensive volatility for inexperienced teams.
Really, the correlation would be inconsistency and experience. But I'm not sure how to do that without calculating the variance of every single team's offensive and defensive game ratings.
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Microsoft Excel is a terrific program
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I had my personal mubb meltdown after Iowa. I was talked off the ledge by someone with far more bb knowledge than myself telling me to get ready because this was going to be a very up and down year. I realize that DePaul holds a special place in the halls of incompetence, but people losing their sh!t over this loss need to calm down. And now I have cool charts to back me up. Thanks Sugar.
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I think the fan frustration stems from the fact that we literally have more Big East experience than these kids who are being forced fed. Now, that is experience by watching and learning, and not playing. We know coaches, veteran players and referees by name (and even gait) from years of watching. We know the back pick in the Princeton offense will lead to an easy Georgetown layup by the picker rolling off. Just like parents who don't want their kids to repeat the same stupid mistakes that they look romantically back on now, we can see the accident coming before it happens.
However, even patient fans want to see progress. Is the coaching staff teaching or screaming? Is the spacing in the offense there even if the shots aren't falling? Are the defensive fundamentals in place? Are the players recruited Big East ready? With a young team and coaching staff, these things aren't typically determined with wins and losses, especially at the point in the season where freshmen hit their proverbial wall.
That said, in only one BE game has MU had a game where their offensive efficiency has been over 97, per KPom. They shoot too quickly for their talent into possessions as determined by one of the lowest length of possessions in the nation, turn the ball over at really high rates, cannot or do not go after offensive rebounds (so they can get back on defense), don't recognize double teams coming and thus don't pass out, have players playing out of position, and don't recognize matchup advantages very well--all at a very consistently mediocre rate. That my friends, has a lot to do with coaching and teaching.
And, please, let's also try to defend the home court. MU's best performances have all been on the road.
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I think the fan frustration stems from the fact that we literally have more Big East experience than these kids who are being forced fed. Now, that is experience by watching and learning, and not playing. We know coaches, veteran players and referees by name (and even gait) from years of watching. We know the back pick in the Princeton offense will lead to an easy Georgetown layup by the picker rolling off. Just like parents who don't want their kids to repeat the same stupid mistakes that they look romantically back on now, we can see the accident coming before it happens.
However, even patient fans want to see progress. Is the coaching staff teaching or screaming? Is the spacing in the offense there even if the shots aren't falling? Are the defensive fundamentals in place? Are the players recruited Big East ready? With a young team and coaching staff, these things aren't typically determined with wins and losses, especially at the point in the season where freshmen hit their proverbial wall.
That said, in only one BE game has MU had a game where their offensive efficiency has been over 97, per KPom. They shoot too quickly for their talent into possessions as determined by one of the lowest length of possessions in the nation, turn the ball over at really high rates, cannot or do not go after offensive rebounds (so they can get back on defense), don't recognize double teams coming and thus don't pass out, have players playing out of position, and don't recognize matchup advantages very well--all at a very consistently mediocre rate. That my friends, has a lot to do with coaching and teaching.
And, please, let's also try to defend the home court. MU's best performances have all been on the road.
And what I find so distressing in these examples of fundamental breakdowns, is that bball ain't rocket surgery for goodness sake. College isn't the first time these players have been taught the game, is it?
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I think the fan frustration stems from the fact that we literally have more Big East experience than these kids who are being forced fed. Now, that is experience by watching and learning, and not playing. We know coaches, veteran players and referees by name (and even gait) from years of watching. We know the back pick in the Princeton offense will lead to an easy Georgetown layup by the picker rolling off. Just like parents who don't want their kids to repeat the same stupid mistakes that they look romantically back on now, we can see the accident coming before it happens.
However, even patient fans want to see progress. Is the coaching staff teaching or screaming? Is the spacing in the offense there even if the shots aren't falling? Are the defensive fundamentals in place? Are the players recruited Big East ready? With a young team and coaching staff, these things aren't typically determined with wins and losses, especially at the point in the season where freshmen hit their proverbial wall.
That said, in only one BE game has MU had a game where their offensive efficiency has been over 97, per KPom. They shoot too quickly for their talent into possessions as determined by one of the lowest length of possessions in the nation, turn the ball over at really high rates, cannot or do not go after offensive rebounds (so they can get back on defense), don't recognize double teams coming and thus don't pass out, have players playing out of position, and don't recognize matchup advantages very well--all at a very consistently mediocre rate. That my friends, has a lot to do with coaching and teaching.
And, please, let's also try to defend the home court. MU's best performances have all been on the road.
Whole post is right on. The bolded particularly stood out to me. I often see Wojo melting down on the sidelines over referees calls or lack thereof. I think that reflects poorly on Wojo, and ultimately doesn't do him any favors with the officials as even though if they don't T him up on those reactions, they feel shown up.
A concern I have with Wojo, and any other guy who is the epitome of a try hard, gritty all out hustler is: Do they understand nuance/rhythm? I scratch my head frequently at Wojo's reactionary substitutions, and general lack of any rhyme or reason to his rotation/substitution pattern. Was baffled as to why he only played Traci Carter 13 minutes against DePaul?
Traci, Duane, JJJ, Henry, and Luke is without question the best lineup for MU to play. Cheatham backs up Traci and Duane. Cohen and Wally back up JJJ and Henry.
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I often see Wojo melting down on the sidelines over referees calls or lack thereof. I think that reflects poorly on Wojo, and ultimately doesn't do him any favors with the officials as even though if they don't T him up on those reactions, they feel shown up.
MU was up 4-0 against DePaul and made a poor defensive play. I think someone missed a switch and gave up a layup. Wojo was airborne. I mean both feet off the ground, knees up, arms swinging in the air and again after he landed. The score was 4-2. I don't mind passion, and there was no doubt this was frustration. But at 4-2, this seemed out of place.
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MU was up 4-0 against DePaul and made a poor defensive play. I think someone missed a switch and gave up a layup. Wojo was airborne. I mean both feet off the ground, knees up, arms swinging in the air and again after he landed. The score was 4-2. I don't mind passion, and there was no doubt this was frustration. But at 4-2, this seemed out of place.
Mike Deane disagrees! ;)
But yeah. As Dr. B wrote, I very much wonder about the teaching vs. screaming issue.
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Mike Deane disagrees! ;)
But yeah. As Dr. B wrote, I very much wonder about the teaching vs. screaming issue.
Remember when we would be out of time-outs before the 10min mark in the first half with Deane?
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Microsoft Excel is a terrific program
A professor in grad school once said "Excel is the second best program for everything". There's always a better tool than Excel, but nothing is as versatile.
Related: Mexican food is the second best food for any diet.
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Finally got a chance to look at some of this.
There is a small but statistically significant relationship between experience and offensive eFG%, offensive turnover rate, and offensive rebounding%. There is no statistically significant relationship on the defensive end. I didn't look at Free Throw Rate.
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Put these on twitter
The following set of charts are efficiency trends (moving 5 game averages) for #mubb players. Helps to look at the trends for the season.
Post players - Luke is slumping, but Henry is starting to surge
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ca8lS1eWAAE3XUE.png)
Point Guards - Carter and Cheatham are both playing better lately. Cheatham is more consistent
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ca8ljHdXEAExGBN.png)
Cohen and Duane - Cohen has struggled in conf play. Duane was improving, but has had issues lately
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ca8l35gXIAA1xBx.png)
Last, the improved play for JJJ shows up. Strong run over the past 8 games for #mubb
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ca8mJENW4AAa7el.png)
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Put these on twitter
The following set of charts are efficiency trends (moving 5 game averages) for #mubb players. Helps to look at the trends for the season.
Post players - Luke is slumping, but Henry is starting to surge
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ca8lS1eWAAE3XUE.png)
Point Guards - Carter and Cheatham are both playing better lately. Cheatham is more consistent
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ca8ljHdXEAExGBN.png)
Cohen and Duane - Cohen has struggled in conf play. Duane was improving, but has had issues lately
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ca8l35gXIAA1xBx.png)
Last, the improved play for JJJ shows up. Strong run over the past 8 games for #mubb
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ca8mJENW4AAa7el.png)
JJJ's efficiency trend over the last 6 or so games is really exciting.
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JJJ's efficiency trend over the last 6 or so games is really exciting.
Sandy on the other hand....might be a case where the statistics aren't as bad as it actually is
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Sandy on the other hand....might be a case where the statistics aren't as bad as it actually is
Or maybe his talent level today cannot stack-up against BE quality G's & SF's. I always felt this happened to Juan -- feasting on cupcakes and fading in the BE season.
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Or maybe his talent level today cannot stack-up against BE quality G's & SF's. I always felt this happened to Juan -- feasting on cupcakes and fading in the BE season.
I don't think that's what is going on with Sandy at all....he's got a major mental block. Hoping he can correct it by next season
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I don't think that's what is going on with Sandy at all....he's got a major mental block. Hoping he can correct it by next season
Again, here are Sandy's ORtgs over the past six games. Four good games and two turdburgers.
PC 42
X 120
SHU 15
Butler 120
Stetson 106
St. John's 115
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Again, here are Sandy's ORtgs over the past six games. Four good games and two turdburgers.
PC 42
X 120
SHU 15
Butler 120
Stetson 106
St. John's 115
I really question the stat if Sandy's performance against X is rated that high.
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Or maybe his talent level today cannot stack-up against BE quality G's & SF's. I always felt this happened to Juan -- feasting on cupcakes and fading in the BE season.
Of course, we said this about JJJ the last two years as well. And, I believe, about Vander early in his career. Maybe, just maybe, some players begin to play significantly better as upper classmen.
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Of course, we said this about JJJ the last two years as well. And, I believe, about Vander early in his career. Maybe, just maybe, some players begin to play significantly better as upper classmen.
That is why I said today. I agree and think maybe more seasoning is required.