MUScoop

After Villanova, what do you think. I'm still thinking a bubble team and probably are in, provided we continue to grow and play well.

Try as I may, I just don't see 11 league wins there. Which is likely what they'll need for an at-large bid.

Where's the option of winning the tournament? That's more likely than being an at-large.

Quote from: PTM on January 14, 2016, 08:51:16 AM
Where's the option of winning the tournament? That's more likely than being an at-large.

Yep. Have to win at least 11 games in conference and we are currently 2-3 so we have to go 9-4 the rest of the way here's the schedule and being optimistic:

Xavier - Would be a tough win and we won't be favored (L)
@DePaul - Better win (W)
@St Johns - Better win (W)
Butler - Won't be favored but at home should be a W if we're any good (W)
@Seton Hall - If they keep self destructing, we better win (W)
@Xavier - Sumner will be back for sure and just tough, don't see the win (L)
Providence - Not sure Providence plays the same way, 50/50 at best (L)
Creighton - Should beat them at home (W)
DePaul - Better win (W)
@Creighton - This is the make or break game, if we are dancing they have to win (W)
Villanova - Just don't see it unless we get consistent (L)
Georgetown - This one I think they can win (W)
@Butler - Toughest to call at this point because Butler's had some bad breaks (L)

Puts us exactly at 11-7....and that's an optimistic view

Quote from: mu03eng on January 14, 2016, 09:00:05 AM
Yep. Have to win at least 11 games in conference and we are currently 2-3 so we have to go 9-4 the rest of the way here's the schedule and being optimistic:

Xavier - Would be a tough win and we won't be favored (L)
@DePaul - Better win (W)
@St Johns - Better win (W)
Butler - Won't be favored but at home should be a W if we're any good (W)
@Seton Hall - If they keep self destructing, we better win (W)
@Xavier - Sumner will be back for sure and just tough, don't see the win (L)
Providence - Not sure Providence plays the same way, 50/50 at best (L)
Creighton - Should beat them at home (W)
DePaul - Better win (W)
@Creighton - This is the make or break game, if we are dancing they have to win (W)
Villanova - Just don't see it unless we get consistent (L)
Georgetown - This one I think they can win (W)
@Butler - Toughest to call at this point because Butler's had some bad breaks (L)

Puts us exactly at 11-7....and that's an optimistic view

Check your math. That's 10-8. Need to beat X at home probably

1% chance thanks to Broeker & company.

#108 in Kenpom (53 was worst at large bid last year)

#114 in RPI per NCAA.com before last night (67 is the lowest RPI ever to receive at large bid)

Bracketology has MU out at both CBS & ESPN & neither has MU as one of the first 4 out.

I truly believe with a competent NC- schedule, this team dances in March.

300 & worse RPI teams in non conference:

301- grambling state
307- Presbyterian
323- Maine
324- Chicago state
336 - San Jose state

Even playing UWGB (161) & UWM (170) would have been huge compared to these guys

Quote from: TAMU Eagle on January 14, 2016, 09:07:18 AM
Check your math. That's 10-8. Need to beat X at home probably

Yep you are right, have to beat either X or Providence at home

Quote from: dgies9156 on January 14, 2016, 08:45:52 AM
After Villanova, what do you think. I'm still thinking a bubble team and probably are in, provided we continue to grow and play well.

NIT is the path this year. After Saturday it will sink in.

The Villanova game gave me some hope, but I still think we are the 8th best team in the league. However, if we beat Xavier I would move us from NIT to bubble team.

When our lads end the regular season with a 13-0 run, starting with Saturday's impressive beatdown of X, I believe we'll be a 3 seed at worse if we win our first two BET games.

Quote from: mu03eng on January 14, 2016, 09:00:05 AM
Yep. Have to win at least 11 games in conference and we are currently 2-3 so we have to go 9-4 the rest of the way here's the schedule and being optimistic:

Xavier - Would be a tough win and we won't be favored (L)
@DePaul - Better win (W)
@St Johns - Better win (W)
Butler - Won't be favored but at home should be a W if we're any good (W)
@Seton Hall - If they keep self destructing, we better win (W)
@Xavier - Sumner will be back for sure and just tough, don't see the win (L)
Providence - Not sure Providence plays the same way, 50/50 at best (L)
Creighton - Should beat them at home (W)
DePaul - Better win (W)
@Creighton - This is the make or break game, if we are dancing they have to win (W)
Villanova - Just don't see it unless we get consistent (L)
Georgetown - This one I think they can win (W)
@Butler - Toughest to call at this point because Butler's had some bad breaks (L)

Puts us exactly at 11-7....and that's an optimistic view

We really have to go 4-0 in the next 4 games, plus steal that Creighton game

Quote from: WarriorPride68 on January 14, 2016, 09:13:21 AM
1% chance thanks to Broeker & company.

#108 in Kenpom (53 was worst at large bid last year)

#114 in RPI per NCAA.com before last night (67 is the lowest RPI ever to receive at large bid)

Bracketology has MU out at both CBS & ESPN & neither has MU as one of the first 4 out.

I truly believe with a competent NC- schedule, this team dances in March.

300 & worse RPI teams in non conference:

301- grambling state
307- Presbyterian
323- Maine
324- Chicago state
336 - San Jose state

Even playing UWGB (161) & UWM (170) would have been huge compared to these guys

This is a great summary.  We could have "earned" the right to lose one more conference game if we didn't schedule this many bums.  Don't forget we've got RPI #288 Stetson coming in a few weeks to further drag things down.

Quote from: KenoshaWarrior on January 14, 2016, 09:54:24 AM
We really have to go 4-0 in the next 4 games, plus steal that Creighton game

Nah, but I do think we need to go 4-1 in our next 5, and then 3-1 in the stretch after that.

I think we lose to Xavier then win our next 4 conference games to get to 6-4, then lose to Xavier again, then win 3 in a row to get to 9-5. Last 4 games determine if we get in, need to go 2-2 @Creighton, Nova, Georgetown, @ Butler

11-7 in

10-8: Need to win two tournament games.

9-9 need to get at least to the championship game and hope other conference tournaments hold to form and not bring in any outliers.

Worst case scenario, which I do see as plausible, is that after a few more loses, this team is mentally done and checks out.  If you look at the MU's most recent long NCAA run, the team (with the exception of when the 3 Amigos were sophomores) had upperclassmen leader (Novak, 3 Amigos, Lazar, Butler, DJO/Crowder, Cadougan).  This team doesn't have one.

I think Steve Novak really deserves a lot of credit for setting MU up for a long run of success.  The 3 Amigos without his steady presence (along with Chapman) would have resembled this gang of freshman (talented, but unfocused) and we finish our inaugural Big East season no better than 8-8 and probably 7-9 and out of the tournament.  Teams need player leadership and this one doesn't have any.

Quote from: Badgerhater on January 14, 2016, 10:44:29 AM

I think Steve Novak really deserves a lot of credit for setting MU up for a long run of success.  The 3 Amigos without his steady presence (along with Chapman) would have resembled this gang of freshman (talented, but unfocused) and we finish our inaugural Big East season no better than 8-8 and probably 7-9 and out of the tournament.  Teams need player leadership and this one doesn't have any.

I don't think gives the proper amount of credit to Novak's actual talent. 

I tend to look at it like this: If this team had a Novak-level talent, we wouldn't be reading this post about whether we will or won't be making the tournament. We'd be arguing whether we will be a 3 or 5 seed.

Quote from: Marquette_g on January 14, 2016, 10:03:18 AM
Don't forget we've got RPI #288 Stetson coming in a few weeks to further drag things down.

Crap, forgot about Stetson. Also #319 Kenpom

I chose baseball.  Then I remembered that MU has won more games than the Brewers will next year.

Quote from: Marquette_g on January 14, 2016, 11:09:26 AM
I don't think gives the proper amount of credit to Novak's actual talent. 

I tend to look at it like this: If this team had a Novak-level talent, we wouldn't be reading this post about whether we will or won't be making the tournament. We'd be arguing whether we will be a 3 or 5 seed.

Novak-type talent and Final Four experience was a great thing for that team wasn't it?  It prevented double-teams of younger players and opened up the floor.

I'll give you my final answer after Saturday (or I suppose I just did).

I wish there was another choice.  Something along the lines:

So you're telling me there is still a chance?

I'm hoping for a strong run in the NIT and whatever experience/growth the team gets out of that.




but Henry doesn't return just to get to the NCAAs in 2017

our non-conference schedule was a disaster. you don't schedule 6 300+ rpi teams and expect to get any respect from the committee. whoever created our schedule did a very poor job in my opinion

Regardless of OOC schedule, this team still controls its tournament destiny.  Just go out and win and helping in that scenario is not letting teams like St. Johns hang around long enough that they might steal a game.

I guarantee MU will have a bad loss in conference that will kill any tournament momentum faster than playing Grambling State in November.

Bottom Line: This is a fine collection of players, but not a good team.

Quote from: Waldo Jeffers on January 14, 2016, 12:30:33 PM
I'm hoping for a strong run in the NIT and whatever experience/growth the team gets out of that.




but Henry doesn't return just to get to the NCAAs in 2017

We will be a better team next season even if Henry leaves. If Henry stays, we have a team that could make the final four

Playoffs? Are you kidding me? Playoffs?! I just hope we can win a game.

I think we have a good chance at the NIT.  We make too many turnovers and don't due the little things right to win games.  Maybe it is being a lot of freshmen or all the players were stars and didn't have to play team ball and just haven't adjusted to it.

We have to beat DePaul twice and St. John's. We also need to win at home, probably need to get 4 out of Xavier, Providence, Villanova, Creighton, Butler, and Georgetown. That gives us 9 wins.

That would leave us needing to get 2 wins on the road against Seton Hall, Xavier, Creighton, and Butler. And likely need to win our first at MSG to be a lock. I think that's doable.