No way we lose by 20 or more!
BeeJay, bet da mortgage on da Warriors, ai na?
Quote from: VegasWarrior77 on January 12, 2016, 09:53:39 AM
No way we lose by 20 or more!
This may be the last good line of the season. It makes sense to J. Q. PUBLIC.
Quote from: vogue65 on January 12, 2016, 10:04:09 AM
This may be the last good line of the season. It makes sense to J. Q. PUBLIC.
Makes sense to me. I could see this going anywhere from MU squeaking out an upset to MU losing by 40. -19 sounds about right.
Quote from: CTWarrior on January 12, 2016, 10:08:59 AM
Makes sense to me. I could see this going anywhere from MU squeaking out an upset to MU losing by 40. -19 sounds about right.
That's how I see it as well. After getting taken to the woodshed by SHU at home then beating Providence on the road, little would surprise me at this point.
I would not bet this game either way. We could be turnover city and lose by 25+. If we handle the ball okay we could make it interesting.
Tough bet.
Vegas power rankings (depending on who you use) actually suggest this line should be Nova -23.5, so there's actually some value going with Nova -19 here.
Nova is #2 in Vegas' power rankings, MU is #106.
Quote from: MarquetteDano on January 12, 2016, 10:23:22 AM
I would not bet this game either way. We could be turnover city and lose by 25+. If we handle the ball okay we could make it interesting.
Tough bet.
We turned it over 19 times in our win over Providence. A truly remarkable feat to come out of there with a victory with that high number. Then, we turned it over 20 times at home against SJU.
Villanova is well-oiled machine that will absolutely feast on our turnovers. If we keep turning it over at the current rate, we're going to get our doors blown off by at least 30.
We'll see.
Villanova could be one of the great nights in Warrior history.
Remember, every signature win this year was on the road. We're ROAD WARRIORS!!!!!!
Quote from: dgies9156 on January 12, 2016, 10:39:28 AM
We'll see.
Villanova could be one of the great nights in Warrior history.
Remember, every signature win this year was on the road. We're ROAD WARRIORS!!!!!!
It is a massive opportunity, no question. Imagine how the narrative would change. We'd have to be considered in the tournament after a W riding high into our home tilt against the X-men. Win that one and we're guaranteed to be in the Top 25. But, alas, this team is awfully young so these fantasies should only be fleeting to protect against disappointment.
Seems like a lot.
We lost by 28 to Iowa and 20 to Seton Hall. At home.
Not much love from Vegas.They are obvious losers who know not what they are doing. Bet the mortgage!
Certainly feels like a lot when you read it.... makes me realize exactly how dumb my heart makes me.
If Nova has one of those off nights from the 3 point line (which they had issues before conference play started), I think we cover easy.
That being said, I am not holding my breath.
Quote from: Windyplayer on January 12, 2016, 10:47:11 AM
It is a massive opportunity, no question. Imagine how the narrative would change. We'd have to be considered in the tournament after a W riding high into our home tilt against the X-men. Win that one and we're guaranteed to be in the Top 25. But, alas, this team is awfully young so these fantasies should only be fleeting to protect against disappointment.
How do those odds compare to the odds of winning the $1.4b Powerball on Wed night? I'll have my ticket by then. What are the odds of MU beating Nova AND me winning Powerball? Now that's a daily double!
I would have guessed -13 to -14.5...19 is ALOT of points. I like Nova by 15.
Quote from: robmufan on January 12, 2016, 11:11:49 AM
If Nova has one of those off nights from the 3 point line (which they had issues before conference play started), I think we cover easy.
That being said, I am not holding my breath.
I don't know, man.
Watching Butler-Nova on Sunday, it felt like Butler was in great shape and was headed for the win, and then you blink and Nova was up by like 9 or 10. They can shut you down in a hurry. It's going to take a crapload of composure from MU in the 2nd half, and that still may not be enough.
Guards will be key, especially the driving of Duane, JJ, and Haanif. Limit the offensive fouls and force fouls on them on the inside, and who knows.
19 is a lot, but we cannot defend the three and Nova will be able to shoot from outside at will. I think this is our last blowout loss of the season. Nova 86-59,
I guess Vegas didn't see that article on "Teams you can't Trust" !
Quote from: Lennys Tap on January 12, 2016, 10:48:48 AM
We lost by 28 to Iowa and 20 to Seton Hall. At home.
Adding to that, we don't have a great track record winning on the main line and have been stomped the last two seasons. 20 point drubbing seems realistic.
I think we'll cover 20 but not by much. 15-17 point loss.
I just want continued improvement. Max effort, good ball movement, good shots. If they don't drop and we get killed, so be it.
Take 'Nova, give the points. 90-65
This is not last years team, wojo knows what happened at SH and wont let it happen again...we might lose some more as a freshmen led team....but not a lazy low intensity blowout.
So we cover 20 for sure....thats my rational self.
And wednesday we beat nova!...irrational self!!!! Yeah! 8-) :o ;D
Seems like more Y2K discussion.
Quote from: GooooMarquette on January 12, 2016, 10:12:49 AM
That's how I see it as well. After getting taken to the woodshed by SHU at home then beating Providence on the road, little would surprise me at this point.
The only thing that should surprise this year is consistency.
Quote from: Crean to Ann Arbor on January 12, 2016, 01:38:31 PM
The only thing that should surprise this year is consistency.
Isn't being consistently inconsistent a kind of consistency we shouldn't be surprised at?
well i'm gonna have my court-stormin shoes on anyway...just in case
Anyone know what the spread was when we beat UConn in '06?
Their guards will feast on our turnovers first half and Ochefu will finish the main course in the second. -19 is Vegas' way of showing some Marquette love.
Nova to cover. This will be really ugly
Quote from: GooooMarquette on January 12, 2016, 04:28:29 PM
Anyone know what the spread was when we beat UConn in '06?
You can find it all here. Looks like UConn by 10
http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncb/results/2005-2006/boxscore730362.html
Only way I think we have a chance is if we get Ochefu in foul trouble. Even then, 'Nova can kill with the small ball. Strategically, I'd say attack the paint early and work on getting fouls on their bigs, and zone them pretty much the entire game. 'Nova is awesome at shooting twos, but not so great at shooting threes. Force them to shoot over the zone and keep them out of the lane and off the line.
This year is probably the best we've matched up with 'Nova since Jae and DJO graduated. I like our odds here a lot better than I do against Xavier. I think we cover and unless they get uncharacteristically hot from three give them a game. If we win one game this week, my guess is it will be tomorrow night.
Quote from: ecompt on January 12, 2016, 11:30:29 AM
19 is a lot, but we cannot defend the three and Nova will be able to shoot from outside at will. I think this is our last blowout loss of the season. Nova 86-59,
Interesting. Villanova is a worse three-point shooting team on the year than Marquette.
If Villanova shoot 31% or less from three (their average this year) - we cover easily. If they get hot from three, look out.
spent a lot of time and $$$ betting for a few years in college...with some of the most highly regarded handicappers and with some pretty impressive technology and #'s....of which nothing was better than what vegas had. the lines can move artificially...past what vegas would believe to be true, but the spread is a pretty fair reminder of where your team is. the only guys i ever saw make real money betting were the ones who had, or handled, enough $$$ that they could move the line one way and bet big the other. that said....i've seen a few games where a spread like this resulted in a win for the underdog.
That is a TON of points. When is the last time we were an underdog by that much to anybody?
As many have said, Nova can turn a 3-point game into a 15-point game in the blink of an eye. But if we take care of the ball -- big freakin' "if" -- and shoot well, we could put a scare into them.
I do have a bad feeling we get taken behind the woodshed in this one. I'd be thrilled to be wrong!
I have a bad feeling that we will have significant foul trouble in this game. I would never bet against MU, but I think Villanova easily beats the 19 point spread.
The line has gone way down, seeing it at 16.5 now. Interestingly, that is about what it was last year for MU @ nova and we have a far better team and they have a far worse team this year. At 19 I would take the points but at 16.5 I would stay away altogether.
Quote from: brandx on January 12, 2016, 05:44:04 PM
Interesting. Villanova is a worse three-point shooting team on the year than Marquette.
If Villanova shoot 31% or less from three (their average this year) - we cover easily. If they get hot from three, look out.
They made 17 threes in the BET against us last year. We owe these guys.
At 19, I'd be in. Down too much now.
Taking Minnesota +8 at Neb and thinking about Iowa State -2.5 and K-State tonight.
Ugh, check that. Taking MN moneyline. +320. Leggo
Quote from: BagpipingBoxer on January 12, 2016, 02:27:23 PM
Isn't being consistently inconsistent a kind of consistency we shouldn't be surprised at?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkoPq5AOCOA (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkoPq5AOCOA)
Quote from: BagpipingBoxer on January 12, 2016, 02:27:23 PM
Isn't being consistently inconsistent a kind of consistency we shouldn't be surprised at?
"Inconsistent" is one of the more misused sports cliches.
When most people say it, to them it's a synonym for "bad."
The fact is, many bad teams are incredibly consistent. We were quite consistent last year. Most of us knew how we would lose most games.
And then there's the classic: Regardless of ownership and management and players employed, has any organization in sports history been more consistent than the Cubs?
Quote from: BagpipingBoxer on January 12, 2016, 05:09:55 PM
You can find it all here. Looks like UConn by 10
http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncb/results/2005-2006/boxscore730362.html
So 10 point dogs that won by 16. Beat the numbers by 26. It happens.
Quote from: MU82 on January 12, 2016, 07:35:58 PM
"Inconsistent" is one of the more misused sports cliches.
When most people say it, to them it's a synonym for "bad."
The fact is, many bad teams are incredibly consistent. We were quite consistent last year. Most of us knew how we would lose most games.
And then there's the classic: Regardless of ownership and management and players employed, has any organization in sports history been more consistent than the Cubs?
Yep, it means "Bad, with occasional stretches of not quite so bad".
Our team is not this. Our team is full of potential, which may or may not be fulfilled on a given night.
Quote from: Smokin' Jae Crowder on January 12, 2016, 06:29:20 PM
The line has gone way down, seeing it at 16.5 now. Interestingly, that is about what it was last year for MU @ nova and we have a far better team and they have a far worse team this year. At 19 I would take the points but at 16.5 I would stay away altogether.
Game on. I wouldn't count on getting Nova into foul trouble in their gym. It is like playing in a H.S. gym, might help with fewer turnovers because of depth of field site lines. I think perception is a factor at Nova, it is a bandbox (6500 seats). Downside is that they are a noisy bunch.
Turnovers and rebounds, two things MU has not been good at. Unless that somehow changes tonight, Gonna get wrecked in this one.
There will be no castrations tonight. There won't be a win, either.
What was the spread on the Providence game last week?
Quote from: Heisenberg on January 13, 2016, 09:25:22 AM
What was the spread on the Providence game last week?
I took Prov -9.5 that morning
Hope you didn't bet the house...... :(
Quote from: Jay Bee on January 12, 2016, 06:34:11 PM
At 19, I'd be in. Down too much now.
Taking Minnesota +8 at Neb and thinking about Iowa State -2.5 and K-State tonight.
Ugh, check that. Taking MN moneyline. +320. Leggo
Quote from: chapman on January 13, 2016, 09:05:42 AM
There will be no castrations tonight. There won't be a win, either.
But will there be any head games?
Quote from: GooooMarquette on January 13, 2016, 12:06:34 PM
But will there be any head games?
Yes. JJJ will sit out with a phantom neck injury.
Geez, ye of little faith. Nova squeaks by in a 7 point win.
Quote from: wadesworld on January 13, 2016, 12:09:38 PM
Yes. JJJ will sit out with a phantom neck injury.
Watching how his neck twisted when Heldt's knee hit him... I'm not sure I'd call that a phantom injury (unless we are comparing how white Heldt is to the whiteness of a spectre).
Not to be a wet blanket, but it was 84-49 the last time we played them on a neutral court. That MU team was ranked 110th, had Carlino back, and had just whipped Seton Hall. This team is ranked 109th, won't catch Nova off guard after the win at Providence, and the St. John's performance was really bad - the 6-point win dropped us from the top 100 to 109th.
The youth and potential gives me hope, but it's also awefully hard to see a line-up with Ellenson and Fischer covering all four of their three-point shooters on the arc. This is one of those games that if we were to lose by single digits I would believe we really are dramatically improved, and if we somehow win (a 4% chance at www.kenpom.com) then I will flat out believe we are going to defy the odds and make the tournament.
Quote from: JakeBarnes on January 13, 2016, 12:44:29 PM
Watching how his neck twisted when Heldt's knee hit him... I'm not sure I'd call that a phantom injury (unless we are comparing how white Heldt is to the whiteness of a spectre).
It was a joke.
Quote from: auburnmarquette on January 13, 2016, 01:00:16 PM
Not to be a wet blanket, but it was 84-49 the last time we played them on a neutral court. That MU team was ranked 110th, had Carlino back, and had just whipped Seton Hall. This team is ranked 109th, won't catch Nova off guard after the win at Providence, and the St. John's performance was really bad - the 6-point win dropped us from the top 100 to 109th.
The youth and potential gives me hope, but it's also awefully hard to see a line-up with Ellenson and Fischer covering all four of their three-point shooters on the arc. This is one of those games that if we were to lose by single digits I would believe we really are dramatically improved, and if we somehow win (a 4% chance at www.kenpom.com) then I will flat out believe we are going to defy the odds and make the tournament.
You can't compare last year's team to this years. It's not even close. Carlino or not, there was less than a 1% chance of last year's team winning. I at least feel there's s chance tonight.
Great moment in gambling history when Cheatham hits the meaningless corner 3 on the last possession. Secured the cover.
Quote from: hdog1017 on January 13, 2016, 09:58:00 PM
Great moment in gambling history when Cheatham hits the meaningless corner 3 on the last possession. Secured the cover.
One of my all time favorite SNL bits: http://www.hulu.com/watch/272400