Stewed on this a little bit today, and finally decided to start a thread on it.
Hypothesis: Duane in crunch time is still a bit of a mess and he got really lucky with last nights win.
Question: Is this an area of concern or do we assume that most times Duane won't be the critical scorer at the end of a tight game?
Duane has had some well recorded bone headed late game plays (ASU, LSU, IUPUI) but they have been largely forgotten especially given the game winning bucket last night. However, that bucket was a fluke (IMO) and the better play was a pass to the wing in Haanif. Additionally, the previous play or two he had an out of control drive in the lane that led to a turnover and what should have be a close out for PC.
Am I crazy or just unusually pessimistic after a likely season turning win?
Quote from: mu03eng on January 06, 2016, 12:24:51 PM
Stewed on this a little bit today, and finally decided to start a thread on it.
Hypothesis: Duane in crunch time is still a bit of a mess and he got really lucky with last nights win.
Question: Is this an area of concern or do we assume that most times Duane won't be the critical scorer at the end of a tight game?
Duane has had some well recorded bone headed late game plays (ASU, LSU, IUPUI) but they have been largely forgotten especially given the game winning bucket last night. However, that bucket was a fluke (IMO) and the better play was a pass to the wing in Haanif. Additionally, the previous play or two he had an out of control drive in the lane that led to a turnover and what should have be a close out for PC.
Am I crazy or just unusually pessimistic after a likely season turning win?
He also had a very tough finish against Georgetown to keep us in the game with about 2 minutes left. And a great move/finish in OT vs. ASU.
He has a ways to go but he's made some positive plays in crunch time in addition to the obvious negatives.
I think we are fortunate this year that all five players on the court can score.
He wants the ball in his hands at crunch time that is a gift. I will take a guy who wants the ball and not afraid to make a play any day of the week. Last year Carlino wanted it and prior to that Vander did. Most guys run from the ball.
Quote from: mu03eng on January 06, 2016, 12:24:51 PM
Duane has had some well recorded bone headed late game plays (ASU, LSU, IUPUI) but they have been largely forgotten especially given the game winning bucket last night. However, that bucket was a fluke (IMO) and the better play was a pass to the wing in Haanif. Additionally, the previous play or two he had an out of control drive in the lane that led to a turnover and what should have be a close out for PC.
The best play was the play that won the game. Duane made it.
Quote from: MerrittsMustache on January 06, 2016, 12:32:41 PM
The best play was the play that won the game. Duane made it.
That feels like a cop out answer. Like launching a 28 foot contested three would be the best play if it goes in even of you're down by one with your best scorer wide open under the hoop.
He reminds me a little bit of a young Jerel McNeal, a little reckless, doing WTF things at times, but he turned out OK :D
Quote from: MerrittsMustache on January 06, 2016, 12:32:41 PM
The best play was the play that won the game. Duane made it.
That's the ends justifying the means. It's a great result but I wouldn't say it's a great play
my take is he is a guy that performs best when he doesn't have to "think about it" - by definition that kind of means he will do some very boneheaded things because he will not be fully cognizant of time/score/momentum/personnel/scheme etc - but will also lead to him performing great acts in the face of overwhelming odds based on the same 'ignorance' - its what I like to call faux clutch - or the difference between being brave and courageous - its just like Vander IMO - and, again IMHO, speaks to just a bit of a lack of BBall IQ that cant be learned at this point - he's a baller that will go up against anything -
you live and you die by it because he's a captain and maybe HE or Cheetham right now are the only other late game options
Maybe approach this another way, where would all of our scorers ranking in terms of who you want with the ball with a shot to win the game?
For me:
1. Henry
2. Luke
3. Haanif
4. Duane
5. JjJ
6. Sandy
7. Traci
Quote from: mu03eng on January 06, 2016, 12:50:11 PM
Maybe approach this another way, where would all of our scorers ranking in terms of who you want with the ball with a shot to win the game?
For me:
1. Henry
2. Luke
3. Haanif
4. Duane
5. JjJ
6. Sandy
7. Traci
Henry
Duane
Haanif
Sandy
JJ
Luke
Traci
Luke's recent string of missing no-footers puts him low on my list. Toyed with putting him at 7.
Quote from: mu03eng on January 06, 2016, 12:50:11 PM
Maybe approach this another way, where would all of our scorers ranking in terms of who you want with the ball with a shot to win the game?
For me:
1. Henry
2. Luke
3. Haanif
4. Duane
5. JjJ
6. Sandy
7. Traci
For me:
1. Henry
2. Duane (he's scrappy)
3. Haanif (really really close between him and Duane)
4. JJJ
5. Sandy
6. Traci (he's likely to find the right guy)
7. Luke (he travels too much and struggles to finish against bigs. He may get the final big bucket, but it will be delivered from Henry, Duane, Haanif, JJJ, Sandy or Traci).
1. Henry
2. Duane
3. Haanif
Everything else is a broken play and relatively equal
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 06, 2016, 12:36:56 PM
That feels like a cop out answer. Like launching a 28 foot contested three would be the best play if it goes in even of you're down by one with your best scorer wide open under the hoop.
Yes, a play that wins the game is the best play, regardless of whether a "better" play could have been made.
Quote from: mu03eng on January 06, 2016, 12:45:36 PM
That's the ends justifying the means. It's a great result but I wouldn't say it's a great play
I never said it was a
great play. I said it was the
right play because it won the game. What play would have been "more right" than one that wins the game?
Quote from: mu03eng on January 06, 2016, 12:50:11 PM
Maybe approach this another way, where would all of our scorers ranking in terms of who you want with the ball with a shot to win the game?
Whoever is going to make it ;)
Quote from: Goose on January 06, 2016, 12:29:27 PM
He wants the ball in his hands at crunch time that is a gift. I will take a guy who wants the ball and not afraid to make a play any day of the week. Last year Carlino wanted it and prior to that Vander did. Most guys run from the ball.
Spot on, Joe. Leadership is a rare commodity.
Quote from: MerrittsMustache on January 06, 2016, 12:57:13 PM
Yes, a play that wins the game is the best play, regardless of whether a "better" play could have been made.
I never said it was a great play. I said it was the right play because it won the game. What play would have been "more right" than one that wins the game?
Evaluating any game time decision based on the outcome rather than the other options that were available at the time is pretty short sighted. The "best" play in any situation is the one that yields the highest opportunity to score, regardless of the outcome of the decision that was made.
Quote from: mu03eng on January 06, 2016, 12:50:11 PM
Maybe approach this another way, where would all of our scorers ranking in terms of who you want with the ball with a shot to win the game?
For me:
1. Henry
2. Luke
3. Haanif
4. Duane
5. JjJ
6. Sandy
7. Traci
1. JJJ
2. DW
3. HC
4. HE
5. SC
6. LF
7. TC
I dont believe in giving it to a big for the last shot unless they are right next to the hoop unguarded. JJJ and DW get nod over HC because of experience.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on January 06, 2016, 01:14:08 PM
1. JJJ
2. DW
3. HC
4. HE
5. SC
6. LF
7. TC
I dont believe in giving it to a big for the last shot unless they are right next to the hoop unguarded. JJJ and DW get nod over HC because of experience.
Henry got the nod for me because 1) he's our best player and 2) he can pretty much always get a shot off and not get blocked. Honestly, I'm totally cool with a Henry mid-range J with a hand in his face. I also think our guards miss the rim on way too many layups.
Quote from: g0lden3agle on January 06, 2016, 01:12:24 PM
Evaluating any game time decision based on the outcome rather than the other options that were available at the time is pretty short sighted. The "best" play in any situation is the one that yields the highest opportunity to score, regardless of the outcome of the decision that was made.
So, a better play would have been Duane kicking it to an open man and having the ball go through that guy's hands out of bounds?
Quote from: g0lden3agle on January 06, 2016, 01:12:24 PM
Evaluating any game time decision based on the outcome rather than the other options that were available at the time is pretty short sighted. The "best" play in any situation is the one that yields the highest opportunity to score, regardless of the outcome of the decision that was made.
A lay-up is a pretty good opportunity to score, and with the defense moving to challenge penetration it opens up the possibility of an offensive rebound. I thought his final play was fine.
Surprised by lots having Henry 1st. JayBee teaches us one thing, eFG% rules, so going with that order...
1. Haanif
2. Luke
3. Sandy
4. Duane
5. Jajuan
6. Henry
7. Wally
8. Traci
Quote from: rocky_warrior on January 06, 2016, 01:21:27 PM
Surprised by lots having Henry 1st. JayBee teaches us one thing, eFG% rules, so going with that order...
1. Haanif
2. Luke
3. Sandy
4. Duane
5. Jajuan
6. Henry
7. Wally
8. Traci
Despite what some say, not all made baskets during a game are equal.
Pressure to perform plus referee tendencies to swallow whistles at game ends would lead me to have it in the hands of the best guard who is a leader and scorer. That would be Duane right now, but could be Haanif soon.
This is why we can't have nice things.
Lucky, Duane was hardly lucky. I watched the play several times this morning and here's some of the things I saw:
1) Duane probably fouled 32 on Providence. The arm and elbow were extended to protect Duane against penetration. As Duane turned the corner, 32 was trying to draw the foul and went up and arched backward drawing attention to himself for the referees benefit.
2) Number 3 was faked out of his jockeys and failed to see what was happening, giving Duane an opening.
3) Duane released late on his shot -- should have been released at the top of his arc. He was probably a half second late.
4) His quickness really paid and thank God we have someone who wants to drive the basket!
Quote from: MerrittsMustache on January 06, 2016, 01:20:50 PM
So, a better play would have been Duane kicking it to an open man and having the ball go through that guy's hands out of bounds?
Are you just trolling or do you legitimately not understand the concept of not using the outcome of a play to determine how good/bad the decision was?
+ Duane wants the ball.
- Duane wants the ball to the exclusion of others.
+ He is not afraid of the big moment.
- His lack of fear and desire for the big moment has led to questionable choices.
+ Despite earlier poor decisions, he still wanted the ball last night.
+ He didn't fire up a 3!
+ In his mind, he was either going to get to the rack or get fouled. Made the aggressive play.
On balance, the pluses are winning. I am glad we have a player who isn't afraid of the moment. It is a step in the right direction.
Quote from: g0lden3agle on January 06, 2016, 01:53:42 PM
Are you just trolling or do you legitimately not understand the concept of not using the outcome of a play to determine how good/bad the decision was?
Has to be trolling, Merrits isn't that oblivious to the world around him :)
Quote from: rocky_warrior on January 06, 2016, 01:21:27 PM
Surprised by lots having Henry 1st. JayBee teaches us one thing, eFG% rules, so going with that order...
1. Haanif
2. Luke
3. Sandy
4. Duane
5. Jajuan
6. Henry
7. Wally
8. Traci
I was wondering. Using your method, here are the guys that we wanted taking the last shot between the 09-10 season and today. I omitted the players that haven't played over a couple hundred minutes to weed out statistically anomalous players.
| Name | Year | eFG |
1 | Chris Otule | 12-13 | .634 |
2 | Haanif Cheatham | 15-16 | .613 |
3 | Luke Fisher | 14-15 | .609 |
4 | David Cubillan | 09-10 | .595 |
5 | Chris Otule | 13-14 | .591 |
6 | Davante Gardner | 12-13 | .588 |
7 | Davante Gardner | 10-11 | .576 |
8 | Jae Crowder | 11-12 | .568 |
9 | DJO | 09-10 | .564 |
10 | Davante Gardner | 11-12 | .561 |
To me, it looks like a list of either the guys that were taking the last shot those years, or the guys that we dreamed we could have fed it to down-low to take a shot.
Quote from: keefe on January 06, 2016, 01:04:18 PM
Spot on, Joe. Leadership is a rare commodity.
I agree with this too. Duane made a very solid basketball play. Tried the first time and got stopped. Successfully reloaded. Probably got fouled both on the drive and certainly on the shot as the post defender came down with his arms rather than walling up. Still Du pushed through with strength and got a very good shot up that happened to go in. I'll take that against AP #8 on the road every time.
Duane also had the game winner against IUPUI in OT IIRC.
I want somebody that can create his own shot and isn't afraid.
1. Henry/Duane
2 Haanif(will probably be 1 next year)
3 JJ
4 Sandy
Quote from: g0lden3agle on January 06, 2016, 01:53:42 PM
Are you just trolling or do you legitimately not understand the concept of not using the outcome of a play to determine how good/bad the decision was?
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 06, 2016, 02:04:25 PM
Has to be trolling, Merrits isn't that oblivious to the world around him :)
It's a little bit of trolling ;)
I understand the concepts of good/bad decision-making and "playing the percentages" and all that but, in the end, the result is what matters. The "right" decision is always going to be the right decision, regardless of the outcome. However, there are times when the so-called "wrong" decision can be right as well.
If a player makes a decision that gives the highest probability for success and it doesn't work out, it's still the right decision to make. However, if a player decides against that play and makes a decision with a low-probability for success but it results in the best possible outcome, how can one ague that it was the wrong play to make? In other words, how can a decision that directly results in your desired outcome be considered incorrect? Sure, a coach would probably channel Lou Brown after Willie Mays Hayes' basket catch, but for that one particular instance, it was the right decision.
As just mentioned Duane had the play to win us IUPUi and avoid disaster. He had some awful plays too, but made the winner.
I'd draw up a lot of winning plays for Haanif and JJJ too. Those guys know how to drive and get to the rim. That's always kinda the idea if you don't need a 3.
Pray Henry or Luke can board a miss.
Quote from: Goose on January 06, 2016, 12:29:27 PM
He wants the ball in his hands at crunch time that is a gift. I will take a guy who wants the ball and not afraid to make a play any day of the week. Last year Carlino wanted it and prior to that Vander did. Most guys run from the ball.
Bingo. The guy has balls as big as a basketball. He wants it at crunch time. He knows what to do. We need a guy like that. He is not afraid to take it to the hole or shoot the 3.
Quote from: mu03eng on January 06, 2016, 12:50:11 PM
Maybe approach this another way, where would all of our scorers ranking in terms of who you want with the ball with a shot to win the game?
For me:
1. Henry
2. Luke
3. Haanif
4. Duane
5. JjJ
6. Sandy
7. Traci
No on Luke, Cheatham is still a frosh. Maybe Henry, but I would rank him and Duane as the top two.
Quote from: tower912 on January 06, 2016, 02:00:40 PM
+ Duane wants the ball.
- Duane wants the ball to the exclusion of others.
+ He is not afraid of the big moment.
- His lack of fear and desire for the big moment has led to questionable choices.
+ Despite earlier poor decisions, he still wanted the ball last night.
+ He didn't fire up a 3!
+ In his mind, he was either going to get to the rack or get fouled. Made the aggressive play.
On balance, the pluses are winning. I am glad we have a player who isn't afraid of the moment. It is a step in the right direction.
No, Duane does not want it to the exclusion of others. He dishes off plenty. Now Henry is that guy who would want it to the exclusion of others.
Quote from: HaywardsHeroes32 on January 06, 2016, 03:35:41 PM
Pray Henry or Luke can board a miss.
Really good point, if you don't have those guys shooting it gives you a good opportunity for a follow
A player that is willing to take the key shot is going to miss some of them. A player who is not willing to take shot will never make one.
Duane attacked the basket. As a coach for a last shot situation, that is what you always ask for. People here are criticizing the shot but here's how I look at it.
Duane was going to the basket. Usually a higher percentage shot and their biggest threat of a shot blocker is Bentil, which I wouldn't be too scared of.
Duane has the cajones to take the last shot. Say what you want about the kid, but wanting to be in that moment is half the battle. He has that clutch gene where he has ice in his veins. Remember how many free throws Haanif missed at the end kf the Wisconisn game?
Wit this team, I would much rather take a shot through contact than jacking up, even an open outside shot. Duane has the ability to break defenders down to get into the lane.
Finally, would you rather take what Duane did? Or the shot Dunn did that Henry blocked, pull um mid range shots are so tough.
Criticize all you want but from a coaches perspective on a final shot, that is a great look from Duane. No complaints here.
Quote from: willie warrior on January 06, 2016, 04:45:18 PM
Bingo. The guy has balls as big as a basketball. He wants it at crunch time. He knows what to do. We need a guy like that. He is not afraid to take it to the hole or shoot the 3.
Quote from: bilsu on January 06, 2016, 04:55:04 PM
A player that is willing to take the key shot is going to miss some of them. A player who is not willing to take shot will never make one.
Both of these +10000. You can't undermine the fact that he doesn't shy away from the spotlight, that is huge in those kind of situations.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on January 06, 2016, 01:14:08 PM
1. JJJ
2. DW
3. HC
4. HE
5. SC
6. LF
7. TC
I dont believe in giving it to a big for the last shot unless they are right next to the hoop unguarded. JJJ and DW get nod over HC because of experience.
I like this order. Ability to get to the rack is key. With their quickness they are likely to get fouled as well. The first two guys can step up and make the free throws if they get hacked as well.
I am never uncomfortable with Duane. I think he has a Warrior mentality and believes he can make every shot he takes. Obviously a few are taken too soon in the clock but hopefully that habit will fade.
Quote from: ChitownSpaceForRent on January 06, 2016, 05:00:25 PM
Duane attacked the basket. As a coach for a last shot situation, that is what you always ask for. People here are criticizing the shot but here's how I look at it.
Duane was going to the basket. Usually a higher percentage shot and their biggest threat of a shot blocker is Bentil, which I wouldn't be too scared of.
Duane has the cajones to take the last shot. Say what you want about the kid, but wanting to be in that moment is half the battle. He has that clutch gene where he has ice in his veins. Remember how many free throws Haanif missed at the end kf the Wisconisn game?
Wit this team, I would much rather take a shot through contact than jacking up, even an open outside shot. Duane has the ability to break defenders down to get into the lane.
Finally, would you rather take what Duane did? Or the shot Dunn did that Henry blocked, pull um mid range shots are so tough.
Criticize all you want but from a coaches perspective on a final shot, that is a great look from Duane. No complaints here.
Yes. A whopping 1.
Down by 1? Duane, Haanif, Hank.
Up by 1 and needing a good possession? Duane is the last guy I want with the ball. Give me Haanif or Luke in that situation.
As far as the last play it was a great decision. Force the action. He got hammered and should've been going to the free throw line as well, especially with the new "emphases" that lead to 50 foul games. But even if there is no whistle and he doesn't make the shot, he forced help and their players would've been scrambling for rebounding position.
Yeah Haanif and Sandy both missed 1 and 1s at Wisco.
He didn't miss a lot
Quote from: keefe on January 06, 2016, 01:04:18 PM
Spot on, Joe. Leadership is a rare commodity.
AMEN!
I want somebody shooting who is going to stick it down their throat and make them like it as the ball shimmers through the net!
That was Duane last night.
Maybe next time it will be Hannif or Henry or Luke. But for my money, I liked Duane last night.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on January 06, 2016, 01:14:08 PM
1. JJJ
2. DW
3. HC
4. HE
5. SC
6. LF
7. TC
I dont believe in giving it to a big for the last shot unless they are right next to the hoop unguarded. JJJ and DW get nod over HC because of experience.
I like your list. I had JJJ way too low. He is likely the best at getting to the rack and finishing. That is the most important aspect.
On Twitter, Duane has said Kobe is his favorite player. As a Kobe/hero-ball hater, that kinda scares me. It seems to explain some of Duane's shot selection late in games.
Having said that, it's really nice to have a guard that can both drive and shoot after a few years of having rather one-dimensional guards.