Okay...so I'm sure plenty were disappointed with our free throws. 6/14 on the road isn't usually a formula for winning. But more impressively...
Wisconsin was 1/4 from the line. Not just the percentage, but we went into the Kohl and not only won the foul battle but went to the line more than three times as often as Bucky did. They beat us on the glass, beat us on turnovers, but we won the old Buzz adage of "make more free throws than your opponent takes."
Coming into this game, we were 9th in the country in terms of the defensive ratio of free throw attempts to field goal attempts. And today, we were even better than usual. In a year when there are more whistles, our coaching staff has done a great job adjusting early to the foul changes. Great job today in a hostile environment.
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 12, 2015, 02:38:46 PM
Okay...so I'm sure plenty were disappointed with our free throws. 6/14 on the road isn't usually a formula for winning. But more impressively...
Wisconsin was 1/4 from the line. Not just the percentage, but we went into the Kohl and not only won the foul battle but went to the line more than three times as often as Bucky did. They beat us on the glass, beat us on turnovers, but we won the old Buzz adage of "make more free throws than your opponent takes."
Coming into this game, we were 9th in the country in terms of the defensive ratio of free throw attempts to field goal attempts. And today, we were even better than usual. In a year when there are more whistles, our coaching staff has done a great job adjusting early to the foul changes. Great job today in a hostile environment.
That's the one huge difference with this Wisconsin team. They don't attack the rim at all, but they don't have the shooters they almost always have. That's a death blow for them. Plus, the way the rules are now, they are disadvantaged.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on December 12, 2015, 02:45:53 PM
That's the one huge difference with this Wisconsin team. They don't attack the rim at all, but they don't have the shooters they almost always have. That's a death blow for them. Plus, the way the rules are now, they are disadvantaged.
Noticed that too. The new rules emphasis is BAD for the rodents.
Quote from: rocky_warrior on December 12, 2015, 02:48:02 PM
Noticed that too. The new rules emphasis is BAD for the rodents.
What, you mean they can't grab and pull anymore?
Quote from: wadesworld on December 12, 2015, 02:51:31 PM
What, you mean they can't grab and pull anymore?
Flopping also isn't rewarded as much. They are still calling charges, but seem to give the benefit of the doubt to the offensive player more.
We are actually the #5 team in the country in respect to limiting opponent ft attempts. Wojo has responded well to adjust to the new officiating since the first few games.
The ability to play solid D at the rim and not foul is going to really help this team this year.
FT% is nearly irrelevant. What's concerning is that we outshot Becky 55.4% to 40.9% eFG% and only won by 2. The turnovers and rebounding nearly got us.
eFG% reigns supreme.
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 12, 2015, 02:52:27 PM
Flopping also isn't rewarded as much. They are still calling charges, but seem to give the benefit of the doubt to the offensive player more.
I loved the fact that three times Showalter tried taking one of those horsesh*t charges and went 0-3.
Quote from: Jay Bee on December 14, 2015, 11:13:48 AM
FT% is nearly irrelevant. What's concerning is that we outshot Becky 55.4% to 40.9% eFG% and only won by 2. The turnovers and rebounding nearly got us.
eFG% reigns supreme.
You say this: we outshot Becky 55.4% to 40.9% eFG% and only won by 2.
Then this: eFG% reigns supreme.
(https://media1.giphy.com/media/glmRyiSI3v5E4/200.gif)
Quote from: barfolomew on December 14, 2015, 11:26:33 AM
You say this: we outshot Becky 55.4% to 40.9% eFG% and only won by 2.
Then this: eFG% reigns supreme.
(https://media1.giphy.com/media/glmRyiSI3v5E4/200.gif)
Because of the eFG advantage, MU was able to overcome turning the ball over more, and giving up a crapton of offensive rebounds.
Quote from: barfolomew on December 14, 2015, 11:26:33 AM
You say this: we outshot Becky 55.4% to 40.9% eFG% and only won by 2.
Then this: eFG% reigns supreme.
Let's try this...
Becky had a turnover advantage of 4.. and had 8 more offensive rebounds than MU.
MU was able to overcome this 12-possession disadvantage because of its eFG% advantage.
Quote from: rocky_warrior on December 12, 2015, 02:48:02 PM
Noticed that too. The new rules emphasis is BAD for the rodents.
Stuff that is bad for the rodents falls into the category of "It's all good"
Quote from: Jay Bee on December 14, 2015, 11:55:41 AM
Let's try this...
Becky had a turnover advantage of 4.. and had 8 more offensive rebounds than MU.
MU was able to overcome this 12-possession disadvantage because of its eFG% advantage.
My point is we could have had a huge advantage in eFG% and still could have lost the game due to those other factors, so while it was the key on Saturday, it doesn't quite reign supreme.
Quote from: barfolomew on December 14, 2015, 12:16:52 PM
My point is we could have had a huge advantage in eFG% and still could have lost the game due to those other factors, so while it was the key on Saturday, it doesn't quite reign supreme.
My point is it does reign supreme.
In games when MU has a higher eFG% than its opponents, they are undefeated this season. In games when MU has a lower eFG%, they haven't won. Not so for the other factors. MU's defensive eFG% correlation to their overall defensive efficiency this season is flippin 95%.
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 12, 2015, 02:52:27 PM
Flopping also isn't rewarded as much. They are still calling charges, but seem to give the benefit of the doubt to the offensive player more.
As they should. Hopefully Woj doesn't try to instill too much of the Duke flop into our defense. When it's warranted, we should try to take the charge, but the phantom fall over with no contact like Greg Paulus made famous via YouTube will not help our team's reputation in the long run with fans or officials.
Quote from: Jay Bee on December 14, 2015, 11:13:48 AM
FT% is nearly irrelevant. What's concerning is that we outshot Becky 55.4% to 40.9% eFG% and only won by 2. The turnovers and rebounding nearly got us.
eFG% reigns supreme.
UW outscored uss by 3 points from the field and we outscored 5 points from the line. 6-14 almost cost us the game. 1-4 cost the Badgers the game.
Quote from: barfolomew on December 14, 2015, 12:16:52 PM
My point is we could have had a huge advantage in eFG% and still could have lost the game due to those other factors, so while it was the key on Saturday, it doesn't quite reign supreme.
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-xfh0x84ZS_8/UyCuXeAqgYI/AAAAAAAAA4g/Lhc1zVHJGLg/s1600/What+makes+efficiency+2.png)
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2014/03/marquette-and-priorities-part-two.html
Quote from: bilsu on December 14, 2015, 01:10:38 PM
UW outscored uss by 3 points from the filed and we outscored 5 points from the line. 6-14 almost cost us the game. 1-4 cost the Badgers the game.
Assuming "filed" means field, that's still the worst analysis I've seen in a few days (and there's a lot of it).
"Duh.. umm, MU won by 2 and uw-madison missed a three pointer. so uh, that missed three pointer was the whole game"
Quote from: Jay Bee on December 14, 2015, 12:24:57 PM
My point is it does reign supreme.
In games when MU has a higher eFG% than its opponents, they are undefeated this season. In games when MU has a lower eFG%, they haven't won. Not so for the other factors. MU's defensive eFG% correlation to their overall defensive efficiency this season is flippin 95%.
Yes, eFG% is the most important of the 4 factors - but the other three (offensive rebounding, turnovers and getting to the line, or FTA/FTM, are each more important than free throw percentage..
College teams average just over 2/3rds of free throws made, so MU had a terrible night and gave up 3 or 4 points at the line and Wisconsin gave up 2 (we should have hit 9 or 10, they should have hit 3).
Think of it this way, teams normally average 1 point per trip when they do not shoot free throws, but better when they do. So in seven trips that do not end in free throws we would be expected to score 7 points in 7 trips. If we only make 6 of 14 free throws in 7 trips that end in two free throws then we have only cost ourselves 1 point by drawing more fouls (good) and shooting terrible once there (bad). I realize that 1 and 1s and fouls while scoring change the math a little, but just keep getting to the line and avoid letting opponents get to the line and we will be fine. You can control getting to the line and contesting without fouling game-in-and-game-out - a little fluctuation in free throw percentage game to game is normal.
Now if we had lost by one point I'd throw all the math out the window and say, "HIT THE D... FREE THROWS" lol.
Quote from: Jay Bee on December 14, 2015, 01:58:03 PM
Assuming "filed" means field, that's still the worst analysis I've seen in a few days (and there's a lot of it).
"Duh.. umm, MU won by 2 and uw-madison missed a three pointer. so uh, that missed three pointer was the whole game"
Yes, field. Badgers came into the game shooting over 75% from the line. They shot 25%. The difference is the two points they lost by. Badgers lost to Milwaukee after Hayes missed 2 free throws in the last 30 seconds. There are a lot of plays that could go one way or another during a game. However, close games are won or lost in the last minute and late in the game free throws are extremely important. At the end of the game you can look at the statistics and see some things that could of made a huge difference. Turnovers were mentioned above, but MU only had 11 turnovers, which is very good for this MU team. MU performed better at turnovers than they normally do and that supposedly almost cost them the game, while MU shooting less than 50% from the line did not almost cost them the game does not make sense.
Quote from: bilsu on December 14, 2015, 02:40:07 PM
Yes, field. Badgers came into the game shooting over 75% from the line. They shot 25%. The difference is the two points they lost by. Badgers lost to Milwaukee after Hayes missed 2 free throws in the last 30 seconds. There are a lot of plays that could go one way or another during a game. However, close games are won or lost in the last minute and late in the game free throws are extremely important. At the end of the game you can look at the statistics and see some things that could of made a huge difference. Turnovers were mentioned above, but MU only had 11 turnovers, which is very good for this MU team. MU performed better at turnovers than they normally do and that supposedly almost cost them the game, while MU shooting less than 50% from the line did not almost cost them the game does not make sense.
MU turned uw-madison over less than 12%. That is terrible.
Free throw % is nearly irrelevant and eFG% reigns supreme. Those are facts and you can disagree, but......
A 60% FT% team is thought of as a 'horrible FT team'... when the reality is if they are sent to the line for two, that is a great possession, even at 60%.
In 'crunch time' everything is amplified to fans. However, you should be far more concerned about ugly 3-point attempts crazy early in the shot clock than free throw %.
Quote from: barfolomew on December 14, 2015, 11:26:33 AM
You say this: we outshot Becky 55.4% to 40.9% eFG% and only won by 2.
Then this: eFG% reigns supreme.
(https://media1.giphy.com/media/glmRyiSI3v5E4/200.gif)
Heck, even my 2 year old knows about eFG (it comes right after aBCD), but we're still working on everything after that.
Sure, I should be concerned that she can't go past eFG at this point, but the important thing is that she a) recognizes the MU logo and b) pumps her arm and says "go Marquette" whenever she sees it.
Quote from: Jay Bee on December 14, 2015, 11:55:41 AM
Let's try this...
Becky had a turnover advantage of 4.. and had 8 more offensive rebounds than MU.
MU was able to overcome this 12-possession disadvantage because of its eFG% advantage.
And in that horseshyt jump ball call with 0.1 to go at half and it is 13.
Last year, MU played the statistically best defensive game, holding Bucky to a 91.0 efficiency. In the first half this year, MU held them to 0.77 efficiency, then played a good first 10 minutes of the 2nd by a 17-10 margin. At the 8:30 mark, MU was up 11 points still when the ref inadvertently blew his whistle and then restarted play, only to blow it again as the shot clock had to be reset for what seemed minutes. Bucky then went on a 16-7 run, started by three freshman turnovers in a row while Wojo was also trying to give rests to Luke and Henry alternatively.