MUScoop

MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: CrackedSidewalks on November 01, 2015, 03:00:06 AM

Title: [Cracked Sidewalks] Simulated Game-by-Game: Loss at Stanford or in NIT Semi vs. Syracuse Caps 23-13 Season
Post by: CrackedSidewalks on November 01, 2015, 03:00:06 AM
Simulated Game-by-Game: Loss at Stanford or in NIT Semi vs. Syracuse Caps 23-13 Season

After updating the Value Add database today, I immediately simulated a season in which Marquette went 23-13 (including 3-11 against NCAA-bound teams) to earn a 2-seed in the NIT where we lost at Stanford in the quarterfinals or to Syracuse in the semis at MSG.

Henry Ellenson (7.4 points in Value Add) and Duane Wilson (5.27) makes MU 12.67 points better per game than they would be without either - and they join Butler, Providence and Xavier with two players in the top 5% of all players. The only team with more is Villanova (5 players in top 5%).

Winning those two would revenge past heartbreaking NCAA losses to both and give us a shot at South Carolina for the NIT title. Obviously just a couple of extra wins turn a 2-seed in the NIT into an NCAA team, so hopefully MU is back in the Big Dance.

The following is the game-by-game giving the team with the higher Value Add the win once adjusting for home court advantage and the fact that young teams like MU improve more during a season than more experienced teams. This is why I have MU as a Big East 6-seed defeating Xavier as a 3-seed in the opening round of the Big East tournament. I also have MU as the best team in the NIT tournament, but with the overall record justifying a 2-seed, MU would play AT Stanford and then in MSG vs. Syracuse to lose home court advantage.

For MU and then each opponent I list the team's National rank based purely on the sum of their players' Value Add (Marquette is the 55th best team based on 28.28 in total Value Add and Belmont is 133rd based on 16.25).

"NBA" is how many NBA players the team will likely have, so MU has a 1.0 based on Henry Ellenson having a 91% chance and JJJ and Duane Wilson having a small chance to make the NBA. The only opponent with more potential NBA talent is LSU with a 1.4 as the rounded sum of Ben Simmons (96% chance), Tim Quarterman (34%), Craig Victor (8%), Elbert Robinson (4%) and Josh Gray (4%). In other words, we expect LSU to produce 1.4 NBA players like we expect the average American couple to produce 1.9 children.

MU's first opponent Belmont would win the OVC to get the bid and a 16-seed based on Value Add, giving MU three projected NCAA opponents in 10 days with Iowa (11-seed) and LSU (7-seed). While a big underdog against LSU the first game in New York, MU would have the edge in the second New York game November 24 - whether it be against NC State or Arizona State.

Obviously the March opponents in the NIT, NCAA or any other tournament could be anyone, and I laid out the extra tournament games in both the Big East and NIT, even though under this scenario MU would be eliminated before facing Nova for the Big East title or Syracuse or South Carolina in the NIT Final Four.


Nat'lTeamPredValue AddNBAConfBidSeedMU vs.
55Marquette28.281.0BE2 NIT2-seedNA
133BelmontW16.250.0OVC1 NCAA16-seed11/13/2015
326IUPUIW3.840.0Sum11/16/2015
45IowaW30.670.1B101 NCAA11-seed11/19/2015
27Louisiana St.L38.761.4SEC1 NCAA7-seed11/23/2015
62North Carolina St.W27.170.2ACC2 NIT3-seed11/24/2015
282Jackson St.W6.740.0SWAC11/29/2015
352GramblingW00.0SWAC12/2/2015
348MaineW1.280.0AE12/5/2015
296San Jose St.W5.770.0MWC12/8/2015
21WisconsinL39.340.7B101 NCAA6-seed12/12/2015
319Chicago St.W6.590.0WAC12/21/2015
305PresbyterianW5.140.0BSth12/27/2015
51Seton HallW29.380.3BE2 NIT1-seed12/30/2015
31GeorgetownL34.630.3BE1 NCAA8-seed1/2/2016
76ProvidenceL24.370.8BE3 CBI2-seed1/5/2016
150St. John'sW14.710.0BE1/9/2016
10VillanovaL42.610.6BE1 NCAA3-seed1/13/2016
35XavierW32.620.3BE1 NCAA9-seed1/16/2016
122DePaulW17.90.0BE4 CIT6-seed1/20/2016
150St. John'sW14.710.0BE1/23/2016
324StetsonW3.90.0ASun5 Ineligible1/27/2016
40ButlerL33.940.1BE1 NCAA10-seed1/30/2016
51Seton HallL29.380.3BE2 NIT1-seed2/3/2016
35XavierL32.620.3BE1 NCAA9-seed2/6/2016
76ProvidenceW24.370.8BE3 CBI2-seed2/10/2016
80CreightonW23.460.0BE3 CBI3-seed2/13/2016
122DePaulW17.90.0BE4 CIT6-seed2/20/2016
80CreightonW23.460.0BE3 CBI3-seed2/24/2016
10VillanovaL42.610.6BE1 NCAA3-seed2/27/2016
31GeorgetownL34.630.3BE1 NCAA8-seed3/1/2016
40ButlerL33.940.1BE1 NCAA10-seed3/5/2016
35XavierW32.620.3BE1 NCAA9-seed3/10/2016
31GeorgetownL34.630.3BE1 NCAA8-seed3/11/2016
10VillanovaL42.610.6BE1 NCAA3-seed3/12/2016
159Weber St.W14.150.2BSky2 NIT7-seed3/17/2016
61MississippiW27.260.1SEC2 NIT3-seed3/22/2016
52StanfordL29.010.2P122 NIT1-seed3/24/2016
53SyracuseL28.680.2ACC2 NIT1-seed3/29/2016
50South CarolinaL29.680.1SEC2 NIT1-seed3/31/2016
23-13 (Nova, Syracuse, SC)

Ellenson ranks in the top 60 of all players. Remember, even though he is one of the best 10 players based on mock drafts, players are drafted based on how good they will get to be - so always be patient with freshmen! The huge improvement for most players is during the offseason between freshman and sophomore seasons.
Source: Simulated Game-by-Game: Loss at Stanford or in NIT Semi vs. Syracuse Caps 23-13 Season (http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2015/11/simulated-game-by-game-loss-at-stanford.html)
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Simulated Game-by-Game: Loss at Stanford or in NIT Semi vs. Syracuse Caps 23
Post by: Brewtown Andy on November 01, 2015, 07:07:46 AM
So, if I'm reading it right, the projection says that 21 wins with this schedule doesn't get an NCAA bid?
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Simulated Game-by-Game: Loss at Stanford or in NIT Semi vs. Syracuse Caps 23
Post by: tower912 on November 01, 2015, 07:57:49 AM
Two of those wins are in the NIT.   He is projecting 19-12 regular season. 
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Simulated Game-by-Game: Loss at Stanford or in NIT Semi vs. Syracuse Caps 23
Post by: NotAnAlum on November 01, 2015, 09:42:34 AM
This has us going 9-9 in conference.  Then beating X in the first round of the BE tourne.  That would have to put us ahead of X for an at large bid so for this scenario the BE would only be getting 4 bids.  If that is the level of respect the BE gets this year we are probably in trouble as far as going to the dance.  One more conf win making us 10-8 and a win in the BE tourney is what I believe we need to do to get in with this projected non con record but a lot of that depends on the feeling nationally about the strength of the league.  Very close but very do-able.
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Simulated Game-by-Game: Loss at Stanford or in NIT Semi vs. Syracuse Caps 23
Post by: bamamarquettefan on November 01, 2015, 09:58:48 AM
Quote from: Brewtown Andy on November 01, 2015, 07:07:46 AM
So, if I'm reading it right, the projection says that 21 wins with this schedule doesn't get an NCAA bid?

I basically just assumed the committee also issued their bids based on top value add ratings as well without digging any deeper, so as a projected not 2-seed we would be "next four out." If the big East has the kind of early season we had last year then it could tip a 5th and 6th bid to get us in under this simulation.

The thing I am most happy about is that my cracked sidewalks table now pops up as a table on muscoop!
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Simulated Game-by-Game: Loss at Stanford or in NIT Semi vs. Syracuse Caps 23
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on November 01, 2015, 12:01:49 PM
In our matchup with LSU, did you account for Craig Victor being a midseason transfer? He will not be eligible to play against us. Don't know if that changes that to a W or not.
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Simulated Game-by-Game: Loss at Stanford or in NIT Semi vs. Syracuse Caps 23
Post by: PGsHeroes32 on November 01, 2015, 01:40:03 PM
Since when is the BET a double loss elimination tourney?
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Simulated Game-by-Game: Loss at Stanford or in NIT Semi vs. Syracuse Caps 23
Post by: Mu2323 on November 03, 2015, 01:58:11 PM
The same time the NIT moved to triple elimination lol