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MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: Warriorfish on April 04, 2015, 10:52:01 PM

Title: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: Warriorfish on April 04, 2015, 10:52:01 PM
Should be a great game.

Watched their first game in the Caesars Palace sportsbook and UW could not contain Duke's guard play.  Will be interesting to see what adjustments Bo makes this time.
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: GGGG on April 04, 2015, 10:52:59 PM
Duke hits outside shots.  UK doesn't.  I think Duke is going to win by about 8.
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: MUfan12 on April 04, 2015, 10:54:33 PM
As poised as Duke's freshmen are, I think the veterans win. Hope to God I'm wrong.
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: ChicosBailBonds on April 04, 2015, 11:00:20 PM
Wow, that point spread surprises me a bit.  Figured Duke by 3. 
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: Tugg Speedman on April 04, 2015, 11:05:32 PM
Wow, that point spread surprises me a bit.  Figured Duke by 3. 

I agree with you and I'm guess this is because all the emotional Bucky money is pouring in right now.  Check tomorrow afternoon when the more rationale betting money starts coming in.
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: Norm on April 04, 2015, 11:09:03 PM
All the CBS/TBS crew is picking Wisconsin tonight because of their size - too many big men for Duke to cover. I think this is setting up for a Duke win, as too many are focusing on UW beating undefeated UK, and not enough on how Duke thrashed MSU.
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: brandx on April 04, 2015, 11:12:09 PM
Just a guess - but maybe it's because:

1. Duke shot over 65% in the 1st meeting and we all know it isn't happening again.
2. Dekker played on a bad ankle the last time.
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: MUfan12 on April 04, 2015, 11:14:47 PM
Just a guess - but maybe it's because:

1. Duke shot over 65% in the 1st meeting and we all know it isn't happening again.
2. Dekker played on a bad ankle the last time.

No debating the second point, but Duke got a ton of layups to get to that number.

UW is better offensively, and Duke is really improved defensively. Should be interesting.
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: DavidDiggsDawg on April 04, 2015, 11:14:54 PM
If my memory serves, didnt Duke beat UW-Madison IN Madison by around 10 earlier this season? What do they think will be so drastically diffeerent this time around? If you have a team at can go in there and handle them, I would think they could do the same thing on Monday night. At least that's what I'm praying for.
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: Norm on April 04, 2015, 11:15:30 PM
Just a guess - but maybe it's because:

1. Duke shot over 65% in the 1st meeting and we all know it isn't happening again.
2. Dekker played on a bad ankle the last time.
Did you watch Duke's guards tonight? Think UW's will be able to contain them without racking up fouls? If Jones plays Monday like he did tonight, Duke will win.
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: brandx on April 04, 2015, 11:20:29 PM
Did you watch Duke's guards tonight? Think UW's will be able to contain them without racking up fouls? If Jones plays Monday like he did tonight, Duke will win.

If Dekker plays like he did tonite, Duke won't.
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: brewcity77 on April 04, 2015, 11:21:33 PM
If my memory serves, didnt Duke beat UW-Madison IN Madison by around 10 earlier this season? What do they think will be so drastically diffeerent this time around? If you have a team at can go in there and handle them, I would think they could do the same thing on Monday night. At least that's what I'm praying for.

My argument would be that Duke may look at that game as the blueprint to beat UW-Madison, whereas Wisconsin will look at it as how the need to evolve. If that's the case, my money is on the team trying to evolve.

My hope is K doesn't pay any attention to what happened in November. That will only hurt Duke.
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: 4everwarriors on April 04, 2015, 11:23:19 PM
Y'all are postin' with yo heart and not yo head. Bucky is on a mission. Just beat the year long #1 team. Bo's squad wins on Monday.
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: SWARM! on April 04, 2015, 11:23:28 PM
You guys are mostly hilarious. Wisconsin is the best team in college basketball. The sooner yall
 Deal the better you'll feel.
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: Eldon on April 04, 2015, 11:24:41 PM
Anybody think Wojo gives K a scouting report?
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: SWARM! on April 04, 2015, 11:25:28 PM
Y'all are postin' with yo heart and not yo head. Bucky is on a mission. Just beat the year long #1 team. Bo's squad wins on Monday.

For real.
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: wadesworld on April 04, 2015, 11:27:32 PM
You guys are mostly hilarious. Wisconsin is the best team in college basketball. The sooner yall
 Deal the better you'll feel.

Except Duke beat Wisconsin in Madison by double digits and just smoked Michigan State, who took UW to OT in the BTT.  So not sure how you can state that as a fact.

Y'all are postin' with yo heart and not yo head. Bucky is on a mission. Just beat the year long #1 team. Bo's squad wins on Monday.

Isn't anybody who makes it to the National Title game "on a mission?"
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: Juan Anderson's Mixtape on April 04, 2015, 11:28:15 PM
My hope is K doesn't pay any attention to what happened in November. That will only hurt Duke.

Especially since they played in Dec.  ;)
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: ChicosBailBonds on April 04, 2015, 11:28:29 PM
Y'all are postin' with yo heart and not yo head. Bucky is on a mission. Just beat the year long #1 team. Bo's squad wins on Monday.

I think I've been with my head the whole time, including today.  Don't think UK was as good as people made them out to be and tonight showed.  Duke's depth is a concern, however, but they are smarter than UK.  Some of the hairbrained stuff UK pulled tonight was funny to watch, but Coach Cal isn't the type of coach to reign it in. 

Should be an interesting game....right now I'm leaning slightly Duke, but depth and foul trouble has me very sketchy on that pick.
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: brewcity77 on April 04, 2015, 11:28:37 PM
Except Duke beat Wisconsin in Madison by double digits and just smoked Michigan State, who took UW to OT in the BTT.  So not sure how you can state that as a fact.

We all have our defense mechanisms.
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: SWARM! on April 04, 2015, 11:28:42 PM
Except Duke beat Wisconsin in Madison by double digits and just smoked Michigan State, who took UW to OT in the BTT.  So not sure how you can state that as a fact.

Isn't anybody who makes it to the National Title game "on a mission?"

Sooner you see it the better.
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: ChicosBailBonds on April 04, 2015, 11:30:09 PM
Sooner you see it the better.

One of the best for sure, but going up against what I would argue is their equal.  We'll see.  Should be a fun game. 
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: wadesworld on April 04, 2015, 11:31:44 PM
Sooner you see it the better.

They could certainly win the game Monday.  But to say right now that anybody who thinks anyone other than Wisconsin is the best team in the country is thinking with their heart rather than their head is going against what we actually have seen so far this season.
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: Norm on April 04, 2015, 11:32:20 PM
If Dekker plays like he did tonite, Duke won't.
Duke guards scored 42 points tonight, UW's scored 21.

UW's F's and C's scored 50, Duke's F's and C's scored 39.

If Okafor and Winslow can stay equal with Kaminsky and Dekker, the advantage is Duke.
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: SWARM! on April 04, 2015, 11:32:34 PM
No doubt they're worthy but UW wins.
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: Juan Anderson's Mixtape on April 04, 2015, 11:33:33 PM
I think I've been with my head the whole time, including today.  Don't think UK was as good as people made them out to be and tonight showed.  Duke's depth is a concern, however, but they are smarter than UK.  Some of the hairbrained stuff UK pulled tonight was funny to watch, but Coach Cal isn't the type of coach to reign it in. 

Should be an interesting game....right now I'm leaning slightly Duke, but depth and foul trouble has me very sketchy on that pick.

Wisconsin has no depth either.  Duke primarily plays 6, Wisconsin 6 or 7 depending if you count Jackson.  Neither Okafor nor Kaminsky can guard each other.  Foul trouble key on both sides.  Hot shooting team wins Monday night.
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: Tugg Speedman on April 04, 2015, 11:53:58 PM
ESPN just said the game is now a pick'em
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: HutchwasClutch on April 04, 2015, 11:59:06 PM
The Badgers just have a look that screams team of destiny.  F***!!!  >:(

That said, Duke had a cakewalk tonight, while the Badgers had to grit out a win with a very thin bench.  They pointed all year to a Kentucky rematch, got it, and won.  We'll see if they can muster up the same emotional edge in less than 48 hours.  I really believe tonight took its toll emotionally and physically on them, and it may very well show Monday night.  Oh how I hope it comes in to play Monday night.  

Please Duke, please.
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: ChicosBailBonds on April 05, 2015, 12:03:42 AM
The Badgers just have a look that screams team of destiny.  F***!!!  >:(

That said, Duke had a cakewalk tonight, while the Badgers had to grit out a win with a very thin bench.  They pointed all year to a Kentucky rematch, got it, and won.  We'll see if they can muster up the same emotional edge in less than 48 hours.  I really believe tonight took its toll emotionally and physically on them, and it may very well show Monday night.  Oh how I hope it comes in to play Monday night.  

Please Duke, please.

Butler had destiny screaming twice, too.  Should be a good game. 
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: HutchwasClutch on April 05, 2015, 12:06:04 AM
Butler had destiny screaming twice, too.  Should be a good game. 

Yeah, they did, I truly hope for similar results Monday to 2010 and 2011 for Butler. 
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: GGGG on April 05, 2015, 06:58:18 AM
If my memory serves, didnt Duke beat UW-Madison IN Madison by around 10 earlier this season? What do they think will be so drastically diffeerent this time around? If you have a team at can go in there and handle them, I would think they could do the same thing on Monday night. At least that's what I'm praying for.


That was four months ago.  Duke has shown that if they aren't hitting shots that they are beatable.  (v. ND in the ACC Championship Game for instance.)  Rasheed Suliamon had 20+ points that game and he isn't on the team any longer.  (Justice Winslow had 5 as a counterpoint.)

Whoever hits their shots is going to win. 
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: Warrior_2002 on April 05, 2015, 08:11:30 AM
Everyone needs to throw out the Duke-beat-Wisconsin-by-10-at-home argument.  November happened a long time ago. Every team is way different now than they were back.  A great game to look forward to Monday night. These are 2 great team-basketball playing teams.
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: Juan Anderson's Mixtape on April 05, 2015, 08:14:09 AM

That was four months ago.  Duke has shown that if they aren't hitting shots that they are beatable.  (v. ND in the ACC Championship Game for instance.)  Rasheed Suliamon had 20+ points that game and he isn't on the team any longer.  (Justice Winslow had 5 as a counterpoint.)

Whoever hits their shots is going to win. 

Sulaimon had 14 but yeah you can't really look at the first game and expect anything to be the same.  Dekker bum ankle, Traevon Jackson had 25, Duke shot 65% (58% on 3's), Hayes & Okafor foul trouble, Winslow a non-factor, etc.
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: Juan Anderson's Mixtape on April 05, 2015, 08:15:13 AM
Oh by the way, the first Duke/Wisconsin game was Dec. 3 people.  Stop saying November!
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: Tugg Speedman on April 05, 2015, 08:19:03 AM
Sulaimon had 14 but yeah you can't really look at the first game and expect anything to be the same.  Dekker bum ankle, Traevon Jackson had 25, Duke shot 65% (58% on 3's), Hayes & Okafor foul trouble, Winslow a non-factor, etc.

Has Sulaimon said where he is going next year?  Prison for rape?
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: Warrior_2002 on April 05, 2015, 08:47:59 AM
Oh by the way, the first Duke/Wisconsin game was Dec. 3 people.  Stop saying November!

Good point.  Big big difference.  Still 4 months.
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: ChicosBailBonds on April 05, 2015, 09:10:53 AM
Has Sulaimon said where he is going next year?  Prison for rape?

He might transfer to Blacksburg, Va
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: wadesworld on April 05, 2015, 02:28:35 PM
Superbar
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: brandx on April 05, 2015, 02:38:51 PM
Superbar

Your "word" for the day?
 ;D
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: wadesworld on April 05, 2015, 02:41:38 PM
Your "word" for the day?
 ;D

Haha.  I guess so.
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: brewcity77 on April 05, 2015, 03:33:05 PM
Superbar

Report function
Title: Re: UW opens up as a 1 pt favorite vs Duke
Post by: breadtree on April 06, 2015, 09:18:20 AM
Duke guards scored 42 points tonight, UW's scored 21.

UW's F's and C's scored 50, Duke's F's and C's scored 39.

If Okafor and Winslow can stay equal with Kaminsky and Dekker, the advantage is Duke.

There were 68 possessions in the Duke game and 58 in the Wisconsin game.  If you normalize for that the Duke F/Cs scored 33 pts and their guards scored Gs 36.   This is to say nothing of the  fact that Wisconsin was playing the best defense (up to that point) in the KenPom era, whereas Duke was playing the 15th best of this year.

I think Duke is going to win, but using raw point totals from two different games to make your point is poor analysis. 

I also like the question from another poster about whether Wojo would provide Coach K a scouting report. 

Wojo:  "Hey, Coach K, great to talk to you.  Do you need a scouting report on Wisconsin?"
K: "Um, Steve, we played them 3 days before you did."