Here we are at the end of January, and the ACC and Big East are both predicted to have 7 teams in the NCAAT. That's spectacular, but what are the chances for an 8th team for either (via at-large bid)?
In the Big East, DePaul and Marquette are the next best teams not in consideration for an at-large bid. In the ACC, it's probably Syracuse and Pitt. Resumes:
| School | |Overall | |RPI | |Top 50 Wins | |vs. Top 100 | |150+ Losses | |Road | |Neutral |
| Marquette | |10-9 | |119 | |1 | |2-7 | |1 | |0-5 | |2-1 |
| DePaul | |11-10 | |132 | |3 | |4-6 | |3 | |3-4 | |0-3 |
| Syracuse | |14-7 | |69 | |0 | |2-6 | |0 | |2-4 | |1-1 |
| Pittsburgh | |13-7 | |75 | |0 | |1-6 | |1 | |1-4 | |2-1 |
Now look at what's upcoming vs. their remaining opponents:
| School | |Games | |Avg. RPI | |vs. Top 20 | |vs. 21-50 | |vs. 150+ |
| Marquette | |11 | |46 | |5 | |4 | |0 |
| DePaul | |10 | |44.2 | |6 | |2 | |0 |
| Syracuse | |10 | |59.5 | |3 | |3 | |1 |
| Pittsburgh | |11 | |78.3 | |2 | |3 | |2 |
The selection committee has increasingly focused on RPI over the past couple seasons, so it seems to be less about "marquee" wins or "best" wins or "worst" losses on the resumes as it does about
quality, i.e. top 20/50, wins. Granted, the above is an oversimplification and I haven't run any RPI projections based on possible outcomes, but a rough look at the above, and - barring a conference tourney win - Marquette and DePaul definitely have the best opportunity to play themselves onto the bubble and into consideration. "Will it happen" is a completely different debate, but as to the question of which MBB conference is better on the basis of opportunity for its members (as opposed to better "overall" or "top to bottom"), the Big East is the clear winner.
From an RPI perspective, it looks pretty simple. Marquette needs to get to 11 total wins to feel safe. Whether that's 11-7 or 10-8 and winning one at MSG, I'd feel fairly confident going into Selection Sunday. That said, winning 9 of our next 12 seems like a very, very tall order (understatement). Probably more likely that we win 4 in 4 days at the Garden.
DePaul's six-game slide really killed their chances. They probably need 13 wins in Big East play to get in. Possible? Maybe if they keep playing like they have been, but sure seems unlikely. DePaul's next 5 games will really determine if they can make it into the Dance. They have Providence, Butler, and St. John's away with a little homestand against 'Nova and Seton Hall sandwiched in there. They probably need to go 4-1 in those games. Honestly, I'd be surprised if they won 2 of them. 3-2 or 2-3 and they will probably have to win 3 at MSG.