Looking at the Depaul and Providence games and assuming that the team would be 1-1 after both games, what would have been the more desirable outcome?
- Depaul L, Providence W (what actually occurred)
- Depaul W, Providence L (what I thought was going to happen)
Probably the Providence win.
But you really had us losing this game?
I thought we would win both.
Quote from: HaywardsHeroes32 on January 03, 2015, 06:57:00 PM
Probably the Providence win.
But you really had us losing this game?
I thought we would win both.
Really? IMHO, you're underestimating Providence there. On the other hand, after the DePaul loss, I actually thought, "Well, maybe Wojo can use this to motivate the team to upset Providence." Swear to God. I wasn't really counting on it, though.
Quote from: LittleMurs on January 03, 2015, 07:31:09 PM
Really? IMHO, you're underestimating Providence there. On the other hand, after the DePaul loss, I actually thought, "Well, maybe Wojo can use this to motivate the team to upset Providence." Swear to God. I wasn't really counting on it, though.
Only Nova talent wise and SJU length/personal really worry me. If we are at home I am expecting a win. Will we win them all? No. But I really think we can go 7-2 at home and this was not one of the ones that really worried me.
Prov is solid but you gotta let Henton get his and stop the rest and we did that pretty well.
DePaul was one of our sure bets at a road win and we lost that.
Now need to upset Gtown to have a shot at 3-1 which is what I thought.
Quote from: DJO = JunkYardDog on January 03, 2015, 06:55:28 PM
Looking at the Depaul and Providence games and assuming that the team would be 1-1 after both games, what would have been the more desirable outcome?
- Depaul L, Providence W (what actually occurred)
- Depaul W, Providence L (what I thought was going to happen)
I don't mean this is a difficult way, but your specific question really matters in this case. Can't tell precisely what you're axin, but I will attempt to shed some light. It's more involved than you'd think.
RPI
From a calculation standpoint, remember that 75% of the calc is based on the other team's record and their opponents' records. In the case of two-thirds of that 75% - the team's record – it's based on the ex-MU game. So our outcome vs. Providence & DePaul doesn't matter. The other 25% - based on this season's schedules across college basketball – it's meaningless/approximately even – could be small diff depending on Big East tourney matchups.
So, that's a long way of saying all that really matters relative to your question (is it better to have beat DePaul or Providence if we could only win one of the two games?) is 25% of the calc – Marquette's adjusted win loss record. This part of the calc doesn't care who the opponent is or how good they are.
It all comes down to the adjustment. MU's adjusted win - loss for these games was 0.6 W – 0.6 L. Had we won at DePaul and lost at home that would have been 1.4 W – 1.4 L. Both are .500 records, but you need to look at the overall adjusted win-loss calc.
Our .6-.6 actual record brings the season adj w-l to 6.2-5.0, or .5536.
1.4-1.4 would have put us at 7-5.8 or .5469.
The difference of .0067 positively impacts current RPI by .0017. So, at the moment had results been flipped we'd be at an RPI of 100 instead of 97.
Now, if MU's season adj w-l record was (or eventually is) negative, then winning at DePaul and losing at home to Providence becomes more desirable. It's math.
That said,
your summary answer is: As of today, and assuming MU has a winning adjusted win-loss record at season's end, the actual win-loss breakdown between these two games is the most desirable outcome. That could change.(By the way, Marquette's RPI went up a lot today because of Providence's record coming into the game.)
KenPomThis is a predictive system and doesn't care about the win-loss.
I am not going to get deep into this here unless you pay me, but will tell you this:
What this system is (with some additional adjustments – for example, home court advantage) looking at is offensive and defensive efficiency, adjusted for the opponent's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency vs. the D-I average to come up with an adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency performance, which is then used to calc the Pyth.
DePaul has a mediocre Adj OE and poor Adj DE. Think about it this way (super high-level because you have not paid me) –
MU's actual OE for the DePaul (can be calculated easily) was 90.2, DePaul's current Adj DE is 105.6 and the avg ppp in D-I games is 1.001.
KenPom (excluding home/away, recently, MOV caps and other weightings) will take the 90.2 actual OE * 100.1 divided by 105.6 = 85.5. So, MU gets "credited" for an 85.5 Adj OE performance at DePaul. Awful.
For the Providence game... 107.9 for MU's OE... 94.6 Providence Adj DE. Give MU credit for 114.2 Adj OE.
We've got an average Adj OE between the two games of 99.9
Let's say the opposite was true as to MU's offensive performance in these two games... 90.2 OE vs. Providence, 107.9 against DePaul... we'd have an average Adj OE of 98.8.
The key in all of this is that the impacts/calculations/rankings are ALL EXTREMELY SPECIFIC to the actual results and people (fans, media, coaches alike) often jump to conclusions without doing the work. VERY dangerous to assume anything without going through a lot of detail.
That said, RPI projects are great, but subject to many variables – so simply changing a single partial variable "hey what if we go 11-7 instead of 10-8" can help with a high-level ESTIMATE, but the actual impact depends on many variables/factors.
Any further que$tions, just ax.
Quote from: Jay Bee on January 03, 2015, 08:50:25 PM
I don't mean this is a difficult way, but your specific question really matters in this case. Can't tell precisely what you're axin, but I will attempt to shed some light. It's more involved than you'd think.
RPI
From a calculation standpoint, remember that 75% of the calc is based on the other team's record and their opponents' records. In the case of two-thirds of that 75% - the team's record – it's based on the ex-MU game. So our outcome vs. Providence & DePaul doesn't matter. The other 25% - based on this season's schedules across college basketball – it's meaningless/approximately even – could be small diff depending on Big East tourney matchups.
So, that's a long way of saying all that really matters relative to your question (is it better to have beat DePaul or Providence if we could only win one of the two games?) is 25% of the calc – Marquette's adjusted win loss record. This part of the calc doesn't care who the opponent is or how good they are.
It all comes down to the adjustment. MU's adjusted win - loss for these games was 0.6 W – 0.6 L. Had we won at DePaul and lost at home that would have been 1.4 W – 1.4 L. Both are .500 records, but you need to look at the overall adjusted win-loss calc.
Our .6-.6 actual record brings the season adj w-l to 6.2-5.0, or .5536.
1.4-1.4 would have put us at 7-5.8 or .5469.
The difference of .0067 positively impacts current RPI by .0017. So, at the moment had results been flipped we'd be at an RPI of 100 instead of 97.
Now, if MU's season adj w-l record was (or eventually is) negative, then winning at DePaul and losing at home to Providence becomes more desirable. It's math.
That said, your summary answer is: As of today, and assuming MU has a winning adjusted win-loss record at season's end, the actual win-loss breakdown between these two games is the most desirable outcome. That could change.
(By the way, Marquette's RPI went up a lot today because of Providence's record coming into the game.)
KenPom
This is a predictive system and doesn't care about the win-loss.
I am not going to get deep into this here unless you pay me, but will tell you this:
What this system is (with some additional adjustments – for example, home court advantage) looking at is offensive and defensive efficiency, adjusted for the opponent's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency vs. the D-I average to come up with an adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency performance, which is then used to calc the Pyth.
DePaul has a mediocre Adj OE and poor Adj DE. Think about it this way (super high-level because you have not paid me) –
MU's actual OE for the DePaul (can be calculated easily) was 90.2, DePaul's current Adj DE is 105.6 and the avg ppp in D-I games is 1.001.
KenPom (excluding home/away, recently, MOV caps and other weightings) will take the 90.2 actual OE * 100.1 divided by 105.6 = 85.5. So, MU gets "credited" for an 85.5 Adj OE performance at DePaul. Awful.
For the Providence game... 107.9 for MU's OE... 94.6 Providence Adj DE. Give MU credit for 114.2 Adj OE.
We've got an average Adj OE between the two games of 99.9
Let's say the opposite was true as to MU's offensive performance in these two games... 90.2 OE vs. Providence, 107.9 against DePaul... we'd have an average Adj OE of 98.8.
The key in all of this is that the impacts/calculations/rankings are ALL EXTREMELY SPECIFIC to the actual results and people (fans, media, coaches alike) often jump to conclusions without doing the work. VERY dangerous to assume anything without going through a lot of detail.
That said, RPI projects are great, but subject to many variables – so simply changing a single partial variable "hey what if we go 11-7 instead of 10-8" can help with a high-level ESTIMATE, but the actual impact depends on many variables/factors.
Any further que$tions, just ax.
This is awesome. Thanks Jay Bee.
JayBee did all the technical stuff. From what Palm has said oftentimes in the past, a good win and a bad loss is better for the resume that neither of both. Long way to go though before we truly know whether DU is that bad of a loss and PC is that good of a win.