Two ASU forwards coming off 20/10 appearances may force Fischer to play
I assume Wojo wants to ease Luke Fischer into action, but he may have to get him on the court to let Marquette play big against two Arizona State forwards who put in 20 points and 10 rebounds their last time on the court.
The following notes each player’s jersey number and Value Add rating (3.0 or higher at www.valueaddbasketball.com (http://www.valueaddbasketball.com/)is a strong starter) in potential match-ups going from the “5†spot down to the “1†spot.
5 (center) â€" EDGE ASU â€" Luke Fischer (0.72 projected Value Add) may need to take the court against a very good 6-foot-11 center (ASU #21) Eric Jacobsen (4.40 actual Value Add). Certainly a tall task for Fischer, who may not be ready for a lot of minutes, but his presence may be needed due to the domino effect of needing Anderson and Taylor to match up with forwards who could destroy MU inside.
4 (power forward) â€" TOSS-UP - Steve Taylor (3.06) has done an excellent job at center and may be even better if he can slide over to power forward. So far he been much better than (ASU #40) Shaquielle McKissic (0.68 actual). However, McKissic was projected to be ASU’s best player, and unfortunately went back inside and dominated against Pepperdine last game for a 22 point, 11 rebound game that looked a lot more like his projected Value Add for 5.69 this year.
3 (small forward/swing) â€" TOSS-UP. Likewise, Juan Anderson (5.36) has been awesome, and (ASU #11) Savon Goodman has not even played. However, Goodman was projected to be a lot better than Anderson before the year (4.46 to 1.30), but like Fischer had to sit out first semester after transferring from UNLV. He is the one ASU player who should end up in the NBA, and the last record we have from the court was during the 40 minute ASU scrimmage that he dominated with 28 points and 10 rebounds. This will be a true chance for Anderson to prove how far he has come this year â€" but it will not be easy.
2 (shooting guard) â€" SLIGHT EDGE MU. We thought last year that MU was a tournament team if Duane Wilson (3.34) had not gone down, and he is taking it to another level with a 30-point outing. Senior (ASU #33) Bo Barnes (3.10) has been only slightly behind Wilson’s mark, but with Wilson ascending MU seems to have a slight edge.
1 (point guard) â€" HUGE EDGE MU. The good news is that if MU can just hold their own on the front line, Matt Carlino (5.98) has the chance to dominate at point guard (ASU #3) Chance Murray (1.78). Carlino is inconsistent, but even on one of his bad nights he should have the edge on Murray, and if he is either scoring or setting up others with assists, MU has a huge edge at the point.
Of course, Derrick Wilson and Sandy Cohen could start for defense, and JaJuan Johnson (2.69) rates almost as strong as a good major conference starter off the bench so can provide the offensive spark either as a starter or off the bench. However, overall MU with only an 8-man rotation will give up depth to ASU and most opponents. ASU has bench players that contribute nice Value Add points with ASU #4 Gerry Blakes 1.52, ASU #1 Roosevelt Scott 2.07 and ASU #31 Jonathan Gilling 2.35.
Marquette is a one-point favorite at www.kenpom.com (http://www.kenpom.com/), but if you add Goodman’s 4.46 projected Value Add vs. Fischer’s 0.72, that makes ASU a 3-point favorite. MU needs a win Tuesday and then three easy wins to go to 8-4 entering conference play â€" where MU is favored in only three of 18 games right now at www.kenpom.com (http://www.kenpom.com/). We will learn a lot about MU with Fischer and the rest of the season Tuesday night.
Source: Two ASU forwards coming off 20/10 appearances may force Fischer to play (http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2014/12/two-asu-forwards-coming-off-2010.html)
Hey Bama,
Appreciate the work. I'm curious? Where did you get these starters from? McKissic isn't a PF, at 6-5 200, he's a SF. Hell, he's played a few minutes at PG this season. Their starting PF is Ethan Wragge copycat Johnathan Gilling (6-8 220). Savon Goodman is back but I would imagine like Wojo wanting to ease Fischer in, Sendek will want to ease Goodman in. I think he comes off the bench. Chance Murray hasn't played the last three games...and even when he did, he was the 9th guy in a 10 man rotation. He had one game where he played 23 minutes but the rest were all 15 or less. Tra Holder has been ASU's main point guard but Sendek has rotated a couple of different guys in there to play with him.
I would definitely agree that the starters are odd choices.
C - Eric Jacobsen: Agreed
PF - Jonathan Gilling: Flexes between 3 and 4, but is one of three Sun Devils playing 60% of the team's minutes. If any undersized guy has been at the 4, it's Bo Barnes, not McKissic.
SF - Shaquille McKissic: His primary position. Goodman will play, but despite what he showed in high school, he has yet to prove anything at the D1 level.
SG - Gerry Blakes: The JUCO transfer is the Sun Devils' leading scorer and second leading rebounder. Plays more than Barnes, who flexes between the 2, 3, and 4.
PG - Tra Holder: The freshman has played more point than anyone else for ASU, though fellow freshman Kodi Justice has also got quite a bit of run and been arguably more effective. Chance Murray is probably the team's fourth option at the point.
I would expect the two newly eligible players to get in foul trouble, since they have not played a real game for a year.
Quote from: bilsu on December 16, 2014, 10:02:47 AM
I would expect the two newly eligible players to get in foul trouble, since they have not played a real game for a year.
That's one of my worries for Luke, ASU has a lot of guys that are good at getting to the line. As a team they are in the top-30 in terms of FTA/FGA ratio.
Wojo may have to get Luke on the court? With only 7 other players and no size? Really?
Taylor has been much better than McKissic? Sorry, no.
Juan Anderson has been "awesome"? Sorry, no. Played well, but not awesome.
Savon Goodman "should" end up in the NBA? Sorry, no. Maybe an outside possibility.
"JuJuan Johnson rates almost as strong as a major conference starter" Sorry, no.
Repeat Kempon's "Mu will only win three conferences game? Sorry, no.
"We thought MU was a tournament team if Duane Wilson had not gone down." He went down before the season started and everyone thought MU was a tournament team without Duane.
Weird article, yeah?
Quote from: brandx on December 16, 2014, 10:39:42 AMRepeat Kempon's "Mu will only win three conferences game? Sorry, no.
I have to say I'm done with seeing this said all the time. Yes, we are only 50% or better in 3 of the games, but he projects us to win 6 and other than those 3, there are 6 games that are projected to be one-possession losses.
If anyone wants to take a bet on our W/L record with the over/under at 3.5, I'll happily take the over. So would Pomeroy.
Agree w/brewcity
In addition, KenPom predictions barely know, if at all, Luke Fischer joins today
Quote from: Jay Bee on December 16, 2014, 11:04:30 AM
Agree w/brewcity
In addition, KenPom predictions barely know, if at all, Luke Fischer joins today
That was part of my point on the article. A lot of nonsense. I'm guessing the formulas and assumptions in ValueAdd aren't quite up to snuff.
a few notes from ASU's website
QuoteMarquette assistant coach Mark Phelps was an assistant for current ASU head coach Herb Sendek for a dozen years. Phelps spent 10 seasons (1996‐2006) as an assistant at N.C. State before serving two years (2011‐13) as associate head coach with the Sun Devils...Justin Gainey, Marquette's director of basketball operations, played under Coach Sendek and Phelps with the Wolfpack and helped lead the team to the ACC Tournament championship game in 1997, a run that included a win over No. 1 seed Duke and Steve Wojciechowski...ASU's Tim Wells (director of player development) played with Gainey at N.C. State and assistant coach Stan Johnson previously served in the same position under Phelps (five seasons as head coach) at Drake. Coach Wojciechowski and Sendek are obviously very familiar with each other having met for 10 seasons in ACC competition as a player and coach.
Goodman still goin to the NBA or what?
Quote from: Jay Bee on December 16, 2014, 09:19:10 PM
Goodman still goin to the NBA or what?
Was thinking the same thing just now
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on December 16, 2014, 08:34:21 AM
Hey Bama,
Appreciate the work. I'm curious? Where did you get these starters from? McKissic isn't a PF, at 6-5 200, he's a SF. Hell, he's played a few minutes at PG this season. Their starting PF is Ethan Wragge copycat Johnathan Gilling (6-8 220). Savon Goodman is back but I would imagine like Wojo wanting to ease Fischer in, Sendek will want to ease Goodman in. I think he comes off the bench. Chance Murray hasn't played the last three games...and even when he did, he was the 9th guy in a 10 man rotation. He had one game where he played 23 minutes but the rest were all 15 or less. Tra Holder has been ASU's main point guard but Sendek has rotated a couple of different guys in there to play with him.
Sorry for the delay - all good questions. I should have specified i put down who rates as the most valuable player at a position and should specify these aren't actually "starters." ASU is obviously deep, and you are certainly right on positions. Holder just had so many turnovers, almost never had steals or rebounds, and shoot poorly, so despite having some assists and drawing some fouls he just rates as not adding any value, so even in very limited time Murray added a little more value. Goodman does show as playing mainly SF on Pomeroy, and think I was just throwing Goodman into the mix as their most talented player and moved him up. I was glad he picked up fouls so quickly and we didn't see more of him!
Brandx - 3 strikes and you are out in that response.
First of all, STOP LYING. When you put something it quote parts it means that I wrote or said it, and instead you chose to lie. You quote me as writing "Mu will only win three conferences game? and then answer with your quote NOTE IS AM TYPING THE WORDS YOU TYPED IN QUOTATION MARKS RATHER THAN LIE ABOUT WHAT YOU SAID. "Sorry, no."
As you know, what I wrote is that "MU is favored in only three of 18 games right now at www.kenpom.com' This is true. This is very elementary to basketball understanding, but saying a team is only favored in three games is not the same thing as saying they will only win three games. A team that is the underdog and given only a 33% chance of winning in 15 straight games is likely going to go 5-10 because they win on in every three even though the were not favored in any of them. So don't attribute quotes to people on things they did not write, particularly if in rewriting their quote (i.e lying) you don't understand basic math facts like that.
Second, I will quote you (remember, I am tying the actual words you typed since that's what quote marks mean), "'JuJuan Johnson rates almost as strong as a major conference starter' Sorry, no."
Well, you look pretty smart on that one moments before JJ goes 10 of 16 from the floor, with 4 rebounds, 3 steals and 22 points. You were right on that one, doesn't look like JJ is almost as strong as a major conference starter. See, I put that in teal because your statement looked so silly written right before JJ put up those numbers that your statement could not be taken seriously. Unfortunately you did not put your statement in teal.
On the third item, a little basic English comprehension would help you here. Notice the word IF from your quote and answer to me.
"'We thought MU was a tournament team IF Duane Wilson had not gone down.' He went down before the season started and everyone thought MU was a tournament team without Duane."
Your response would make sense if I had written WHEN Duane Wilson went down since you go on to inform me that he went down BEFORE the season. Your response is completely illogical based on what I actually wrote, because by writing "IF Duane Wilson HAD NOT gone done" I am stating the fact that AFTER the occurance - as in reflecting on the season. However, I do appreciate that you did not change my quote in this case to make it look like your response made sense, you simply left my quote in tact so that it would be clear to anyone reading it that your response was incoherent.
I was so excited about the game tonight, and what a treat to read your feeble attack after the game was over as dessert. Please criticize all of my future pieces!
Quote from: brandx on December 16, 2014, 10:39:42 AM
Wojo may have to get Luke on the court? With only 7 other players and no size? Really?
Taylor has been much better than McKissic? Sorry, no.
Juan Anderson has been "awesome"? Sorry, no. Played well, but not awesome.
Savon Goodman "should" end up in the NBA? Sorry, no. Maybe an outside possibility.
"JuJuan Johnson rates almost as strong as a major conference starter" Sorry, no.
Repeat Kempon's "Mu will only win three conferences game? Sorry, no.
"We thought MU was a tournament team if Duane Wilson had not gone down." He went down before the season started and everyone thought MU was a tournament team without Duane.
Quote from: bamamarquettefan on December 16, 2014, 11:19:15 PM
Second, I will quote you (remember, I am tying the actual words you typed since that's what quote marks mean), "'JuJuan Johnson rates almost as strong as a major conference starter' Sorry, no."
Well, you look pretty smart on that one moments before JJ goes 10 of 16 from the floor, with 4 rebounds, 3 steals and 22 points. You were right on that one, doesn't look like JJ is almost as strong as a major conference starter. See, I put that in teal because your statement looked so silly written right before JJ put up those numbers that your statement could not be taken seriously. Unfortunately you did not put your statement in teal.
Obviously JJJ had a great game and
anyone can make statements after the fact. But, that doesn't change the fact that when
I wrote my comment, JJJ had had one good game this season. Other than ONE game
he had not played "almost as strong as a major conference starter".
Let's talk about "Steve Taylor (3.06) has done an excellent job at center and may be even better if he can slide over to power forward". 6.5/5 is not excellent. McKissic, while not great, is a better player. Wojo decided Steve's "excellent job" didn't merit him even being on the floor (6 minutes, I think). A weird way for a coach to treat a guy who has done an excellent job.
I don't discount the work you have done and I applaud your efforts, but you still have some tweaking that needs to be done to your formulas. Have you used arbitrary constants or multipliers? If so, what are they and why did you choose them? How are the different fields weighted? It might help if you would write a column explaining your methods and how you arrived at the formulas that you did so they could be freely discussed. As of now, no one wants to discuss your findings because they don't understand what it is you are doing.
For example, I don't understand the Value Add projections at all. Your projected Value Add is higher for Cohen than Luke? Why? What was Luke's projection based on? I don't know. Nor does anyone else on the board.
I also don't understand the NBA position column. My guess is that it is what you think a player's chances of making it to the NBA are. But that can't be. Deonte has a better chance of making to the NBA than Nigel Hayes? Almost as good a chance as Kaminsky?
And I questioned you saying Goodman "should end up in the NBA". That is careless writing when it is supposedly based on your work rather than opinion. In reality, he is an elite athlete with some basketball skills and he has a chance to be an NBA player.
So, like Wall Street derivatives, if you make something complicated and then don't give any explanation of your methods, no one is in a position to challenge you.
This board would be so much better if every thread didn't end in petty bickering. The people that write these articles for our enjoyment have real jobs. We should be happy we have anything at all instead of salivating over how many mistakes we can find to rip into the writer. I've done it in the past too, and I'm not perfect, but ever since I've stopped taking things so seriously, the content posted is so much more enjoyable.
I'd hate to lose knowledgable and valued posters such as bama, Henry Sugar etc because I do think that most here truly value their contributions. Keep up the good work guys.
I am now stepping off of the pulpit and ducking for cover.