Marquette is 4-3. While this may look mediocre, I think if you dig a little deeper, there is a lot to be happy about.
The only bad loss is Omaha. Take that away, and our two losses were to two very good ranked, power conference opponents in Ohio State and Michigan State.
We have two solid wins against Georgia Tech and Tennessee.
Matt Carlino and Duane Wilson have both proven they are capable of putting up 30+ points on a given night.
Our zone defense looks very good. If we play zone, we can hang with just about anyone. While I would never put money on us against the Badgers this weekend, I now think we can keep it respectable. A week ago, I was worried about losing by 20+. I just don't think that will happen now. Look for the margin to be 8-12 points.
After the loss to Omaha and the close win over NJIT, we were playing below expectations. After this weekend, we are playing at or slightly above expectations.
I think this is a team that will be playing in some postseason tournament. While in recent history it has been hard to get excited about anything other than playing in the NCAA in March, let's just enjoy this team for what it is, and know that better things will be coming in the years ahead.
Sounds kinda silly, but that Omaha loss changes the perspective. Say they win that game, lose to Bucky, and take care of business the rest of the non-conference slate. They're 9-3, with the three losses against top 20 teams. Wins over GT, Tennessee, and ASU. That's a respectable record, and would give them a shot at a postseason birth with a good BE season.
Quote from: MUfan12 on December 01, 2014, 09:58:11 AM
Sounds kinda silly, but that Omaha loss changes the perspective. Say they win that game, lose to Bucky, and take care of business the rest of the non-conference slate. They're 9-3, with the three losses against top 20 teams. Wins over GT, Tennessee, and ASU. That's a respectable record, and would give them a shot at a postseason birth with a good BE season.
Exactly. But at the same time, let's not dwell on the Omaha game. It was one game.
Out of curiosity, I ran the numbers. That loss cost them about 30 spots in the RPI. Gonna need to steal a game or two to make that up.
After last week, it looked bleak. What I was most impressed with from Wojo is realizing this team is not quick enough to handle quick guards which Omaha killed them with. Buzz was stubborn
at times and I was hoping that Wojo was not as well, but Wojo realized that after lay-up drills by Omaha that they needed a change and they did. The zone worked well, only because GTech
and Tennessee could not shoot, Michigan St. did. A little disappointed they did not guard Valentine closer, players need to know who is hot and who is not. Valentine was hot. To bad MU was not better this year as the schedule is really good. Like playing 3 Big Ten teams in one year.
Going forward, MU does need to recruit a JC guard next year, need a true point. Duane looks more and more like a 2 guard, not saying the 2 freshman can not start right away but not sure
at the point. Congrats to Derrick Wilson for hitting a three when it mattered. Derrick has been very good at times this year, really does not make stupid mistakes as a point. Finally, it will
be nice in a few weeks to get a big, there are many opportunites for rebounds that MU does not get, as they are to small. At least everybody is trying to rebound, but to small.
I think it is more of a repour situation. This team found its identity and Fischer is one game away.
Quote from: MUfan12 on December 01, 2014, 10:05:10 AM
Out of curiosity, I ran the numbers. That loss cost them about 30 spots in the RPI. Gonna need to steal a game or two to make that up.
I also ran the numbers, use RPI Wizard way too much than I should.
But if we lose to Wisconsin, and win the last 4 non con games, then go 11-7 in the Big East, we will end up at 19-11 and top 50 RPI with some decent wins. That would give us a shot at the tournament for sure, especially with the new respect for the Big East.
Quote from: MUEagle1090 on December 01, 2014, 10:08:48 AM
I also ran the numbers, use RPI Wizard way too much than I should.
But if we lose to Wisconsin, and win the last 4 non con games, then go 11-7 in the Big East, we will end up at 19-11 and top 50 RPI with some decent wins. That would give us a shot at the tournament for sure, especially with the new respect for the Big East.
Lets see how Fisher is incorporated into the team after the Badger game, 11-7 seems really good as the Big East is better than people thought, there will be no easy game for this team, not
sure they can win more than 2 or 3 on the road, which means they will have to go 8-1 at home, do not see it.
The thing to remember with bubble teams is everyone has bad losses. Omaha won't sink us as long as we can find a few nice wins. No bubble team is perfect.
I am feeling much better about this team after this weekend also, BUT, don't let this feeling get ahead of itself.
We are still a young, short, developing team. Let's play the BE schedule one game at a time.
On the other hand, I was expecting a flogging from the Vadgers, but now expect a decent game.
Quote from: MUfan12 on December 01, 2014, 09:58:11 AM
Sounds kinda silly, but that Omaha loss changes the perspective. Say they win that game, lose to Bucky, and take care of business the rest of the non-conference slate. They're 9-3, with the three losses against top 20 teams. Wins over GT, Tennessee, and ASU. That's a respectable record, and would give them a shot at a postseason birth with a good BE season.
It does, but of not for the Omaha loss do we go 2-1 in Orlando? Omaha showed this team couldn't press quick opponents and struggled with man defense. NJIT reinforces the defensive struggles. Because of those two games, we went zone. If not for the zone we probably lose to a Georgia Tech team that would have been able to get the ball inside much easier. Sure, we probably beat Rider, but I doubt Wojo would have shifted to zone mid-tourney and I wouldn't like our odds against URI.
Omaha hurt us, but there's no way we look as good as we did in Orlando if not for the changes forced by that game. Who knows, maybe if we squeaked Omaha out we would have lost to NJIT.
It's all hypothetical, but despite that RPI dent it might be the best thing that could have happened. Omaha forced this coaching staff to really start coaching. Thus far I'm pleased with the results.
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 01, 2014, 10:34:19 AM
It does, but of not for the Omaha loss do we go 2-1 in Orlando?
Who knows, but I'd be willing to take my chances in Orlando with an Omaha win.
Worst case, a loss to GTech or Tennessee looks much better than a loss to Omaha.
All good points, Brew. Let's just hope that Duke and Bucky go 10 rounds on Wednesday, and they come out flat on Saturday.
Quote from: Pakuni on December 01, 2014, 10:36:15 AM
Who knows, but I'd be willing to take my chances in Orlando with an Omaha win.
Worst case, a loss to GTech or Tennessee looks much better than a loss to Omaha.
Agreed, but a loss to GTech would have us with Rider then URI as opposed to Mich St then Tennessee
Duane and Carlino are capable of going off at any point. If one gets hot, we can ride him. If both get hot in the same game, we are capable of beating almost anyone. But if both just have an average to below average game, others will have to step up, and it will likely not look pretty. We are still in the same spot I thought we'd be. We will win some no one thought we would, and will lose others that seem to make no sense.
Best case scenario: We go 1/2 or 2/2 vs. UW & ASU, then Fischer adds a needed dynamic and we are able to use the three buy games with him in the lineup to form a complete identity going into conference play. Then we pull some upsets, don't drop any we shouldn't, get a favorable bracket at MSG, and ride a hot streak into the NCAA's. Oh and also manage to avoid any catastrophic injuries in the process.
Doable! Not the best odds that it will play out like that, but definitely doable!
Half full?
I thought we were supposed to tip the glass over?
At least that is what was said by Coach Buzz in years past, no? But every game we are learning more and more that it is a New Day dawning here.
We Must Adapt Every Day, and Prevail!
Let's not over rate the BE. 48 - 12 is nice but there were a ton of bunnies in there.
12-10 since the 36-2 start.
Conference will be about the same strength as last year once all is said and done.
Quote from: Ellenson for an mu-rara on December 01, 2014, 10:32:27 AM
Let's play the BE schedule one game at a time.
You and I and every other Scooper can play them 3 or 8 or 10 at a time. Doesn't matter.
We don't influence the team ... as Buzz proved last season!
Quote from: brandx on December 01, 2014, 11:31:06 AM
Let's not over rate the BE. 48 - 12 is nice but there were a ton of bunnies in there.
12-10 since the 36-2 start.
Conference will be about the same strength as last year once all is said and done.
This.
The Big East hype train is great to fool the media but the Scoopers shouldn't be so silly. There are four to five teams in our conference exactly like Tennessee and we saw last night that MU has the parts and game plan to beat teams like that.
Agree it will be similar strength to last season and MU's worst squad in a decade was two improbable overtime choke jobs away from being 11-7. Still haven't seen anything that rules out that possibility for this team.
Quote from: Golden Avalanche on December 01, 2014, 11:42:18 AM
This.
The Big East hype train is great to fool the media but the Scoopers shouldn't be so silly. There are four to five teams in our conference exactly like Tennessee and we saw last night that MU has the parts and game plan to beat teams like that.
Agree it will be similar strength to last season and MU's worst squad in a decade was two improbable overtime choke jobs away from being 11-7. Still haven't seen anything that rules out that possibility for this team.
This.
11-7 is very possible if we continue to play as we did in Orlando.
Quote from: brandx on December 01, 2014, 11:31:06 AM
Let's not over rate the BE. 48 - 12 is nice but there were a ton of bunnies in there.
12-10 since the 36-2 start.
Conference will be about the same strength as last year once all is said and done.
To be fair, if we're going to fault the Big East's blistering start for "bunnies" then let's look at the losses too, most of which occurred in holiday tournaments where every team except the champion is guaranteed to lose at least one game (and where it should be noted, the Big East won 3 holiday tournaments thanks to Providence, Seton Hall, and Villanova).
Providence lost AT #1 Kentucky
Georgetown lost to #2 Wisconsin
St. John's lost to #10 Gonzaga
Marquette lost to #20 Michigan State
Xavier lost to Long Beach State in a rematch game. Lest you forget, three years ago Marquette nearly lost to Norfolk State in a similar rematch game.
DePaul lost to Lehigh because DePaul
Butler lost to Oklahoma, Creighton lost to Ole Miss, and Xavier lost to UTEP (All in holiday tournaments, but regardless, at least 2 bad losses in there). Nevertheless, 3 of the other six losses were to Top 10 teams, and a fourth was to Michigan State. That's nothing to hang your head over.
Quote from: WarriorInNYC on December 01, 2014, 11:03:29 AM
Agreed, but a loss to GTech would have us with Rider then URI as opposed to Mich St then Tennessee
I ran the RPIWizard with the following hypotheticals:
- Reality -- Lose to Omaha, 2-1 in Orlando, win all non-con except Bucky, 11-7 in Big East (with 11 wins coming from the highest percentage chances to win)
- Hypothetical -- Beat Omaha, 1-2 in Orlando (lose to GT, beat Rider, lose to URI), win all non-con except Bucky, 11-7 in Big East (same 11 wins)
.
Both possibilities came back with the same RPI of 39, with the only difference being our SOS in the first scenario was 30 and in the second scenario was 32. So if we go 2-2 in the Omaha and Orlando Classic games, it's pretty much identical no matter how it hashes out. Of course, had we lost to Rider and had to play Santa Clara...same record, but RPI drops to 44 and SOS drops to 46. Pretty much would take us from lock in either scenario to bubble. Omaha is acceptable, but that does show we can't afford another bad loss.
Quote from: MU82 on December 01, 2014, 11:37:44 AM
You and I and every other Scooper can play them 3 or 8 or 10 at a time. Doesn't matter.
We don't influence the team ... as Buzz proved last season!
Not talking about the team. I am talking about our (Scoopers) expectations.
We are who we said we are. A young inexperienced team working to improve (and showing progress over the weekend).
Stick to the plan. I meant "respect the process"
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 01, 2014, 12:17:17 PM
I ran the RPIWizard with the following hypotheticals:
- Reality -- Lose to Omaha, 2-1 in Orlando, win all non-con except Bucky, 11-7 in Big East (with 11 wins coming from the highest percentage chances to win)
- Hypothetical -- Beat Omaha, 1-2 in Orlando (lose to GT, beat Rider, lose to URI), win all non-con except Bucky, 11-7 in Big East (same 11 wins)
.
Both possibilities came back with the same RPI of 39, with the only difference being our SOS in the first scenario was 30 and in the second scenario was 32. So if we go 2-2 in the Omaha and Orlando Classic games, it's pretty much identical no matter how it hashes out. Of course, had we lost to Rider and had to play Santa Clara...same record, but RPI drops to 44 and SOS drops to 46. Pretty much would take us from lock in either scenario to bubble. Omaha is acceptable, but that does show we can't afford another bad loss.
Good stuff, but one thing you're failing to account for is that the selection committee - and, yeah, we're getting ahead of ourselves here - penalizes you for losses to teams with sub-150 RPIs, especially home losses to those teams.
So 2-2 with a loss to Omaha still hurts MU's postseason chances more than 2-2 with a win over Omaha and a loss to GTech.
And that said, it's a massive assumption to think MU needed to lose to Omaha in order to make the adjustments that helped win two games in Orlando. A two-point win over Omaha would have exposed MU's deficiencies just as much as a loss.
Quote from: Pakuni on December 01, 2014, 12:35:52 PM
Good stuff, but one thing you're failing to account for is that the selection committee - and, yeah, we're getting ahead of ourselves here - penalizes you for losses to teams with sub-150 RPIs, especially home losses to those teams.
So 2-2 with a loss to Omaha still hurts MU's postseason chances more than 2-2 with a win over Omaha and a loss to GTech.
And that said, it's a massive assumption to think MU needed to lose to Omaha in order to make the adjustments that helped win two games in Orlando. A two-point win over Omaha would have exposed MU's deficiencies just as much as a loss.
Way ahead...good thing fans are allowed to do that ;D
The thing is...if Omaha just wins the games they are favored in the rest of the year, they won't be a sub-150 RPI team. I ran them through RPI Wizard as well, and if they win the games they are over 50% on, they finish 20-8 with a RPI of 101. If they can win one more game, they would be a top-100 team. Of course, a lot of those games projected to be wins and losses are close to the line. But even if they go 17-11 (as Pomeroy projects) they still finish just inside the top-150.
It's unlikely this will be a good loss by any stretch, but even at the end of the year I don't think it will be nearly as bad a loss as most Marquette fans are fearing.
Quote from: MUfan12 on December 01, 2014, 10:37:24 AM
All good points, Brew. Let's just hope that Duke and Bucky go 10 rounds on Wednesday, and they come out flat on Saturday.
I'm hoping that Wisconsin blows Duke out, and the team does some serious celebrating.
I am in the focus on one game at a time mode with this team. Let's see if we can do a respectable job against Wisky. To me that means staying relatively close all game ,our key players showing they can perform against another good team and no injuries. That will give us some nice momentum going into the Luke era.
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 01, 2014, 12:44:08 PM
Way ahead...good thing fans are allowed to do that ;D
The thing is...if Omaha just wins the games they are favored in the rest of the year, they won't be a sub-150 RPI team. I ran them through RPI Wizard as well, and if they win the games they are over 50% on, they finish 20-8 with a RPI of 101. If they can win one more game, they would be a top-100 team. Of course, a lot of those games projected to be wins and losses are close to the line. But even if they go 17-11 (as Pomeroy projects) they still finish just inside the top-150.
It's unlikely this will be a good loss by any stretch, but even at the end of the year I don't think it will be nearly as bad a loss as most Marquette fans are fearing.
At the risk of blowing past "glass half full" optimism and into "multiple empty pint glasses" optimism, if this team continues its trajectory it is possible that the bad loss will be mostly discounted by the committee. While they do consider RPI they are not robots. If we are on the bubble (as has been the best case scenario most of us had in mind), presumably it will be with other teams with bad losses and similar RPIs, and this bad loss came at a time that makes it easier to discount.
I am definitely more positive regarding our teams BE prospects(really only Nova scares me) especially considering Luke adds size(any skill he adds is just another bonus).
The BE is will be big for us. Try and get to 11-7 and end up with a bid. Otherwise win 3 straight the hard way in March. I think both can be done.
Truthfully I am not any more optimistic regarding the Wisky game. I think they will destroy us but really no shame in that this year. I've always expected us to beat ASU so now with seeing the improved play I would be really, really disappointed in that loss.
Quote from: HaywardsHeroes32 on December 01, 2014, 05:22:46 PMThe BE is will be big for us. Try and get to 11-7 and end up with a bid. Otherwise win 3 straight the hard way in March. I think both can be done.
Amazing that so many of us are now mulling NCAA possibilities when a week ago some were questioning if we'd win a Big East game :D
I agree that both are possible, though the NIT and other postseason tournaments are also options. While I understood why they didn't want to spend money to get into the CIT last year with a senior-laden team that wouldn't be back, I think it would be good to take any tournament bid we could get this year, even if it meant spending money to get in. The atmosphere alone would be great for such a young team. Definitely NCAA first, NIT second, but I really hope that the team will take any postseason play that is offered, if any is.
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 01, 2014, 05:26:14 PM
Amazing that so many of us are now mulling NCAA possibilities when a week ago some were questioning if we'd win a Big East game :D
I agree that both are possible, though the NIT and other postseason tournaments are also options. While I understood why they didn't want to spend money to get into the CIT last year with a senior-laden team that wouldn't be back, I think it would be good to take any tournament bid we could get this year, even if it meant spending money to get in. The atmosphere alone would be great for such a young team. Definitely NCAA first, NIT second, but I really hope that the team will take any postseason play that is offered, if any is.
Yeah I just think 11-7 is possible seeing us with the zone and factoring in continued improvement plus Luke.
My expectations are still around 7 or 8 wins. Is be pretty pissed if we did worse than that.
Quote from: MUfan12 on December 01, 2014, 10:05:10 AM
Out of curiosity, I ran the numbers. That loss cost them about 30 spots in the RPI. Gonna need to steal a game or two to make that up.
Would love to see what you did. RPI is quite tricky and it's easy to mess it up.
Losing to Wisconsin (as opposed to winning; i.e., considering only the outcome of the game) would hurt MU's RPI this year LESS than losing to Omaha.
Well the team is playing a lot better than my Giants. Oops, wrong sport.
Quote from: Ellenson for an mu-rara on December 01, 2014, 12:19:18 PM
Not talking about the team. I am talking about our (Scoopers) expectations.
We are who we said we are. A young inexperienced team working to improve (and showing progress over the weekend). Stick to the plan.
I meant "respect the process"
I know you weren't talking about the team. I'm just saying that me and you looking ahead doesn't matter. It's what fans do.
I coach a middle-school team in a highly competitive environment. I never look ahead. So when I'm a fan of a team I have absolutely no control over, I'll look ahead all I please!!
Marquette ... 2016-17 National Champions! Duane Wilson ... National Player of the Year. Henry's a teeny little jealous but only for a second; his consolation prize is being the No. 3 pick of the draft.
How's that for looking ahead?
Quote from: MU82 on December 01, 2014, 07:32:51 PM
I know you weren't talking about the team. I'm just saying that me and you looking ahead doesn't matter. It's what fans do.
Marquette ... 2016-17 National Champions! Duane Wilson ... National Player of the Year. Henry's a teeny little jealous but only for a second; his consolation prize is being the No. 3 pick of the draft.
How's that for looking ahead?
Just trying to keep people focused. You and I both know there will be ups and downs, and this is a rebuilding year. I agree that 2017 NC is a perfect goal. Just respect the process. I have more of a general manager mentality than coach. I enjoy the building process and watching this team take 2 steps forward and a step back while seeing the overall progress over this year, and a lot more progress next year. Drives me crazy reading posts about Wojo being over his head after 2 games. Anyway, let's kick some Vadger a**.
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 01, 2014, 05:26:14 PM
Amazing that so many of us are now mulling NCAA possibilities when a week ago some were questioning if we'd win a Big East game :D
I agree that both are possible, though the NIT and other postseason tournaments are also options. While I understood why they didn't want to spend money to get into the CIT last year with a senior-laden team that wouldn't be back, I think it would be good to take any tournament bid we could get this year, even if it meant spending money to get in. The atmosphere alone would be great for such a young team. Definitely NCAA first, NIT second, but I really hope that the team will take any postseason play that is offered, if any is.
+1. I'm still thinking a growing Wojo team finishing mid BEast is a great NIT get. Let's earn it. Unlike last year, I'd be excited to drive up to either the BC, Arena or Al for an opening round game. But lots to play for before then.
Quote from: Ellenson for an mu-rara on December 01, 2014, 09:08:47 PM
Just trying to keep people focused. You and I both know there will be ups and downs, and this is a rebuilding year. I agree that 2017 NC is a perfect goal. Just respect the process. I have more of a general manager mentality than coach. I enjoy the building process and watching this team take 2 steps forward and a step back while seeing the overall progress over this year, and a lot more progress next year. Drives me crazy reading posts about Wojo being over his head after 2 games. Anyway, let's kick some Vadger a**.
Again, though, whether you and I look ahead doesn't matter. We don't have to stay focused on the next game. It doesn't affect anything.
Hell, I'm already looking past Bucky to better things!