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MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: CrackedSidewalksSays on August 16, 2014, 03:30:06 AM

Title: [Cracked Sidewalks]Gtown, Xavier and Seton Hall Freshmen Dominant; Carlino Leads MU Newcomers
Post by: CrackedSidewalksSays on August 16, 2014, 03:30:06 AM
Gtown, Xavier and Seton Hall Freshmen Dominant; Carlino Leads MU Newcomers

Freshman from Seton Hall, Xavier and Georgetown are among the most valuable in the country - with each class likely to improve their team's scoring margin by 8 points or more per game. Marquette's Sandy Cohen projects as a strong contributor, and if he was combined with Luke Fischer, Duane Wilson and Matt Carlino then MU's "newcomers" would project to be almost as valuable as the big three classes.

Even before Todd Mayo left, Value Add projected sophomore Deonte Burton (3.35 projected Value Add) and senior transfer Carlino (3.10) to easily be Marquette's best two players this season.

The table of all Big East freshman appears at the end of this post.

Value Add (http://www.valueaddbasketball.com/), the system that measures the overall impact each player has on his team's scoring margin on an average night, projects that Isaiah Whitehead will be the most valuable freshman in the league by increasing Seton Hall's scoring margin by 5.00 points per game. Five other freshman combine with Whitehead to give their freshman class an overall rating of 8.71 for the best mark in the conference.

Isaac Copeland projects as the second best Big East freshman with a projected Value Add of 4.30, and the four other freshman Hoyas also rank Georgetown in second as a team - just behind Seton Hall at 8.47.

Trevon Bluiett is the third best freshman at 3.20, and five other freshman combine to give Xavier a very strong 8.00.

None of the other seven Big East freshman classes are anywhere close, with a solid trio at Providence giving the Friars a fourth best 4.36, but nowhere near the three dominant leaders.

The class after a coach leaves is normally decimated, but Sandy Cohen gives Marquette one freshman likely to contribute the first year with a 1.13 Value Add. Historically 3-star and better recruits make at least a small contribution (about 0.3 for the average 3-star). While one player cannot make a class, other players who will get on the court for the first time this season make for what would be a very solid class if they were all freshman.

Matt Carlino will take the court immediately after transferring from BYU. An exhaustive study of the entire Value Add database (http://valueaddbasketball.com/ballall.html) from Dwyane Wade's last season through last year shows that a player improves an average of 18% between his junior and senior season. That would point to a very strong Value Add of 3.1 for Carlino this season. Here is the chart of the average improvement from class to class based on 2629 players in the Value Add database who played all four seasons at the same school.

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<table class="tableizer-table"><tbody><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>Study of 2629 players</th><th>Ave Value Add</th><th>Projected improvement</th></tr><tr><td>Freshman</td><td>0.67</td><td>102%</td></tr><tr><td>Sophomore</td><td>1.35</td><td>31%</td></tr><tr><td>Junior</td><td>1.76</td><td>18%</td></tr><tr><td>Senior</td><td>2.09</td><td>0%</td></tr></tbody></table>
So the average freshman more than doubles his value before his sophomore season, but the improvement is much smaller during the next two offseasons.

Duane Wilson missed all of last season with an injury, but was projected to have a 1.6 Value Add out of high school, and Luke Fischer will join after the first semester and projected to have a 1.2 Value Add. If we cheat and include these three along with Cohen, we get a Marquette class just one point behind the three big freshman classes with a 7.03 Value Add.

Obviously others could do the same. Darrick Wood was supposed to have a 1.1 Value Add when he committed to St. John's in 2012, and now should be much better as he comes to DePaul with two JUCO seasons under his belt. Here are all the freshman with at least three stars, and how many points they are expected to improve their team on an average night.

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<table class="tableizer-table"><tbody><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>Freshman</th><th>Ht</th><th>Team</th><th>Proj Value add</th></tr><tr><td>Kelan Martin</td><td>6'5"</td><td>Butler</td><td>0.72</td></tr><tr><td>Tyler Wideman</td><td>6'6"</td><td>Butler</td><td>0.30</td></tr><tr><td>Jackson Davis</td><td>6'8"</td><td>Butler</td><td>0.20</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>1.22</td></tr><tr><td>Ronnie Harrell</td><td>6'8"</td><td>Creighton</td><td>1.26</td></tr><tr><td>Leon Gilmore</td><td>6'7"</td><td>Creighton</td><td>0.77</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>2.03</td></tr><tr><td>Raymond Doby</td><td>6'7"</td><td>DePaul</td><td>0.35</td></tr><tr><td>Rashaun Stimage</td><td>6'8"</td><td>DePaul</td><td>0.30</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>0.65</td></tr><tr><td>Isaac Copeland</td><td>6'9"</td><td>Georgetown</td><td>4.30</td></tr><tr><td>Paul White</td><td>6'8"</td><td>Georgetown</td><td>1.60</td></tr><tr><td>L.J. Peak</td><td>6'4"</td><td>Georgetown</td><td>1.42</td></tr><tr><td>Tre Campbell</td><td>6'1"</td><td>Georgetown</td><td>0.85</td></tr><tr><td>Trey Mourning</td><td>6'9"</td><td>Georgetown</td><td>0.30</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>8.47</td></tr><tr><td>Matt Carlino (Sr.-Tran)</td><td>6'2"</td><td>Marquette</td><td>3.10</td></tr><tr><td>Sandy Cohen</td><td>6'5"</td><td>Marquette</td><td>1.13</td></tr><tr><td>Duane Wilson (2013-RS)</td><td>6'3"</td><td>Marquette</td><td>1.60</td></tr><tr><td>Luke Fischer (2013-RS-Sem)</td><td>6'10"</td><td>Marquette</td><td>1.20</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>7.03</td></tr><tr><td>Paschal Chukwu</td><td>7'2"</td><td>Providence</td><td>1.49</td></tr><tr><td>Jalen Lindsey</td><td>6'6"</td><td>Providence</td><td>1.41</td></tr><tr><td>Ben Bentil</td><td>6'8"</td><td>Providence</td><td>1.21</td></tr><tr><td>Kyron Cartwright</td><td>5'10"</td><td>Providence</td><td>0.25</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>4.36</td></tr><tr><td>Isaiah Whitehead</td><td>6'4"</td><td>Seton Hall</td><td>5.00</td></tr><tr><td>Angel Delgado</td><td>6'8"</td><td>Seton Hall</td><td>1.57</td></tr><tr><td>Khadeen Carrington</td><td>6'3"</td><td>Seton Hall</td><td>0.84</td></tr><tr><td>Desi Rodriguez</td><td>6'5"</td><td>Seton Hall</td><td>0.60</td></tr><tr><td>Ismael Sanogo</td><td>6'6"</td><td>Seton Hall</td><td>0.40</td></tr><tr><td>Obinna Oleka</td><td>6'8"</td><td>Seton Hall</td><td>0.30</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>8.71</td></tr><tr><td>Adonis DelaRosa</td><td>6'11"</td><td>St. John's</td><td>0.15</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>0.15</td></tr><tr><td>Phil Booth</td><td>6'3"</td><td>Villanova</td><td>1.25</td></tr><tr><td>Mikal Bridges</td><td>6'6"</td><td>Villanova</td><td>1.15</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>2.40</td></tr><tr><td>Trevon Bluiett</td><td>6'5"</td><td>Xavier</td><td>3.20</td></tr><tr><td>Makinde London</td><td>6'8"</td><td>Xavier</td><td>1.27</td></tr><tr><td>J.P. Macura</td><td>6'4"</td><td>Xavier</td><td>1.06</td></tr><tr><td>Larry Austin</td><td>6'1"</td><td>Xavier</td><td>0.94</td></tr><tr><td>Edmond Sumner</td><td>6'3"</td><td>Xavier</td><td>0.80</td></tr><tr><td>Sean O'Mara</td><td>6'9"</td><td>Xavier</td><td>0.73</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>8.00</td></tr></tbody></table>

Source: Gtown, Xavier and Seton Hall Freshmen Dominant; Carlino Leads MU Newcomers (http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2014/08/gtown-xavier-and-seton-hall-freshman.html)
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]Gtown, Xavier and Seton Hall Freshmen Dominant; Carlino Leads MU Newcomers
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on August 16, 2014, 01:57:42 PM
The article does admit this is an issue, but I think it underplays how much value other teams will bring in with new players that aren't freshman. Marquette is not the only team bringing non-freshman as new competitors.

Butler:
Roosevelt Jones (10.1 ppg SF returning from injury)
Austin Etherington (2.0 ppg SF transferring in from Indiana)

Creighton:
Ricky Kreklow (5.5 ppg SG transferring in from California)
James Milliken (former top 50 JUCO that redshirtted last season)
Toby Henger (3 star PF that redshirtted last season)

Depaul:
Myke Henry (3.2 ppg SF transferring in from Illinois)
Simpson (Unranked JUCO)
Wood (Unranked JUCO)
Stimage (Unranked JUCO, but was included in the article as if he was a freshman)

Georgetown:
Joshua Smith (11.5 ppg C back after being suspended half of last season, assuming his grades are all good)

Providence:
Kris Dunn (Starting PG last season for four games before getting injured)
Junior Lomomba (5.8 ppg SG transferring in from Cleveland State)
Rodney Bullock (3 star PF who is coming back from a season long suspension)

Seton Hall:
Chier Ajou (2.5 star center transferring from Northwestern who will be elgible for the second semester)
Rashad Anthony (2 star PF who redshirtted last season)

St. John's:
Keith Thomas (Top 50 JUCO)
Amar Albiegovic (2 star PF that just committed to St. John's days ago)

Villanova:
N/A

Xavier:
Remy Abell (4.0 ppg SG transferring in from Indiana)

So every team except for Villanova has their own versions of Duane Wilson, Luke Fischer, Matt Carlino, etc. It is very misleading to included the value added data for Marquette and not do it for everyone else.
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]Gtown, Xavier and Seton Hall Freshmen Dominant; Carlino Leads MU Newcomers
Post by: bamamarquettefan on August 17, 2014, 01:49:25 AM
excellent notes - I do calculate transfer values but the biggest weakness in the calculation is getting those players who have a low value add due to a previous year injury and thus calculate as a nominal player. I also don't have a good way to simply track and dump all redshirts back in.
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]Gtown, Xavier and Seton Hall Freshmen Dominant; Carlino Leads MU Newcomers
Post by: real chili 83 on August 17, 2014, 09:11:42 AM
Quote from: bamamarquettefan on August 17, 2014, 01:49:25 AM
excellent notes - I do calculate transfer values but the biggest weakness in the calculation is getting those players who have a low value add due to a previous year injury and thus calculate as a nominal player. I also don't have a good way to simply track and dump all redshirts back in.

Well, what the heck, John?  ;)
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]Gtown, Xavier and Seton Hall Freshmen Dominant; Carlino Leads MU Newcomers
Post by: bamamarquettefan on August 17, 2014, 05:28:18 PM
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on August 16, 2014, 01:57:42 PM
It is very misleading to included the value added data for Marquette and not do it for everyone else.

I was going back over the players you note, and realized I had initially missed your last line quoted above. Well, yeah, it would b misleading if I hadn't included in my post the absolute fact that we were nowhere near the other programs, and as for adding the others I wrote very directly ...

"If we cheat and include these three along with Cohen, we get a Marquette class just one point behind the three big freshman classes with a 7.03 Value Add. Obviously others could do the same. Darrick Wood was supposed to have a 1.1 Value Add ..."

Yes, I say it is cheating to add these, and in fact it looks like the database may not even calculate Marquette as a top 100 team. The outlook is as bad as the year the Three Amigos left - I will just hope the team pulls one out of a hat this year.
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]Gtown, Xavier and Seton Hall Freshmen Dominant; Carlino Leads MU Newcomers
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on August 17, 2014, 09:08:13 PM
Quote from: bamamarquettefan on August 17, 2014, 05:28:18 PM
Yes, I say it is cheating to add these, and in fact it looks like the database may not even calculate Marquette as a top 100 team. The outlook is as bad as the year the Three Amigos left - I will just hope the team pulls one out of a hat this year.

The nearest Big East teams to 100 in Pomeroy last year were Butler at #104 at 14-17 and Seton Hall was #98 at 17-17. MU was the nearest to them at #76, with GW the only real OOC win. 

100+ sounds about right.
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]Gtown, Xavier and Seton Hall Freshmen Dominant; Carlino Leads MU Newcomers
Post by: martyconlonontherun on August 17, 2014, 10:25:25 PM
I just don't understand how a players value can be determined statistically when they have never played at the college level.
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