MUScoop

MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: Benny B on March 31, 2014, 11:51:44 AM

Title: The Fallacy of the "Flavor of the Month"
Post by: Benny B on March 31, 2014, 11:51:44 AM
How many of these mid-major coaches that were hired at a major school following a surprise season and/or tourney run actually panned out?  Time for a ride in the ol' WABAC, Sherman:

2003 -- After two straight MVC titles and NCAA tourney appearance at SIU, Bruce Weber is hired at Illinois.
Result: 89-65 in the Big Ten and six NCAAT appearances over nine seasons, with an NCAA runner-up in his second year.

2007 -- Todd Lickliter takes his Butler team to the Sweet 16 for the first time in four years and is hired at Iowa.
Result: 38-57 in three seasons at Iowa, never finished better than 8th in the Big Ten.  Currently coaching in the NAIA at Marian University (IN).

2008 -- Five days after losing to UCLA in the Sweet 16 as a 12 seed, WKU's Darrin Horn is hired at South Carolina.
Result: Fired after four seasons after going 60-63 overall with only a single post-season appearance in the NIT.

2009 -- Following two NCAA appearances in his first three years at VCU, Anthony Grant is hired at Alabama.
Result: 99-71 in five seasons and a single NCAA appearance.

2012 -- John Groce is hired at Illinois following his Ohio team's Sweet 16 appearance as a #13 seed (after having annihilated #3 seed Georgetown as a #14 seed just two years prior).
Result: 43-28 in two seasons (15-21 in the Big Ten) with one win a piece in the NCAAT and NIT.

2013 -- Andy Enfield is hired at USC following his FGCU team's unlikely run to the Sweet 16 as a #15 seed.
Result: 11-21 in his first year (2-16 in the Pac 12)

Now let's take a look at those coaches who made the jump after more than two years of tourney success.

2009 -- Following four straight NCAA tourney appearances at Xavier, including one Elite 8 and one Sweet 16, Sean Miller is hired at Arizona.
Result: 129-48 (63-27 in the Pac 12) in five seasons with two Elite 8 appearances and one Sweet 16.

2013 -- Steve Alford is hired at UCLA after taking New Mexico to three NCAA Tourneys in four years.  A few days after signing a contract extension at UNM, Alford takes the job at UCLA.
Result: 28-9, 2nd in Pac-12 and a Sweet 16 appearance in one season.
Title: Re: The Fallacy of the "Flavor of the Month"
Post by: ShakaBSmart on March 31, 2014, 12:41:28 PM
You are correct my friend, very often the shiny new toy ends up tarnished.  I've never been able to understand why really solid contenders (like Howland) get such short shrift.
Title: Re: The Fallacy of the "Flavor of the Month"
Post by: Benny B on March 31, 2014, 01:14:09 PM
Quote from: ShakaBSmart on March 31, 2014, 12:41:28 PM
You are correct my friend, very often the shiny new toy ends up tarnished.  I've never been able to understand why really solid contenders (like Howland) get such short shrift.

In fairness, you have to recognize the Chico Doctrine (~5 years to judge) here, but albeit a small pre-2010 sampling, with the exception of Bruce Weber, it's difficult to argue for such one-hit wonders.  Heck, if you need a reason to not hire Archie, look no further than his brother... that's why I'm skeptical about hiring Cuonzo, Archie, etc.

Again, assistant coaches are burdened with the bulk of the dirty work when it comes to recruiting, Xs and Os, practice, etc... I'd rather promote a leader from the trenches than hire one from another tower (unless that tower has a track record of success).  After all, we did hire an ass't 6 years ago who took us to five straight NCAA tourneys... so the rule of one-hit-wonders doesn't necessarily translate to assts; although admittedly, I didn't do the research there.  MU hired another assistance many years back who took us to our first final four in over two decades, not to mention a few consecutive tourneys before he bolted.  If I had to speculate, the hypothesis would be something along the lines of taking an assistant from a proven winning program/head coach like Moo U, OSU, Cuse, Duke, etc. as opposed to from somewhere that's simply had a good run for a few years with overall middling results (UW, Michigan, Memphis, IA State, etc.).  That's why I think we can do much, much worse than Wojo, Hopkins, etc. --- though neither of them would be my first choice.

Title: Re: The Fallacy of the "Flavor of the Month"
Post by: Tugg Speedman on March 31, 2014, 07:22:04 PM
This is a good thread and needs to be bumped.

The reason you hire a coach should NOT, repeat NOT, start with what he did the prior week in the NCAAT.  (I'm talking yelling at you USC for your truly awful hire last year.)

As Chicos asked earlier today ... if Tenn did not make the Tourney, are we talking about him?

As I asked yesterday, if Duke limped to a victory over Mercer and beat Tenn in the next round denying them a S16, are we talking about him?

How much of Cuonzo's consideration is because of what happened last week as opposed to the prior three years?
Title: Re: The Fallacy of the "Flavor of the Month"
Post by: chapman on March 31, 2014, 07:27:04 PM
There's this one dude that wants the Marquette job.  He won eight conference championships, made the tournament 10 times, and the Final Four three times. Plug him into the model and the output is pleasing.
Title: Re: The Fallacy of the "Flavor of the Month"
Post by: CAGASS24 on March 31, 2014, 08:13:31 PM
to be fair many of the flavors of the month were taking huge jumps up in competition/leagues, save for Mountain West to Pac 12 and A10 to Pac 12 - not the case with Martin (assuming that was your reason for posting)
Title: Re: The Fallacy of the "Flavor of the Month"
Post by: GB Warrior on March 31, 2014, 08:16:08 PM
Quote from: CAGASS24 on March 31, 2014, 08:13:31 PM
to be fair many of the flavors of the month were taking huge jumps up in competition/leagues, save for Mountain West to Pac 12 and A10 to Pac 12 - not the case with Martin (assuming that was your reason for posting)

Yep. Martin's already proven he can't do it in the big conferences!
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