what happens if Marquette beats Providence and St. Johns and loses to Nova on the road. Then come Big East toury time Marquette beats someone in the first round then loses its second game. Are we in??? I know its obviously based on a bunch of different teams but could only 3 more wins give us a decent chance???
Quote from: MU72491 on March 01, 2014, 08:11:54 AM
what happens if Marquette beats Providence and St. Johns and loses to Nova on the road. Then come Big East toury time Marquette beats someone in the first round then loses its second game. Are we in??? I know its obviously based on a bunch of different teams but could only 3 more wins give us a decent chance???
Under that scenario I'd feel "decent" about our chances.
Quote from: MU72491 on March 01, 2014, 08:11:54 AM
what happens if Marquette beats Providence and St. Johns and loses to Nova on the road. Then come Big East toury time Marquette beats someone in the first round then loses its second game. Are we in??? I know its obviously based on a bunch of different teams but could only 3 more wins give us a decent chance???
"Decent" is the appropriate word, but we'd still have zero marquee wins. We'd have solid wins, but not great wins. A win tomorrow would cure almost all that is ailing us. It's really an unreal opportunity to have the chance to knock of a top 10 team on the road at this time of the year, given our current position. Also, doesn't hurt that it's on national television for some committee members to take in. I know the odds are against us, but it's fun to believe.
That being said, the committee would have difficulty ignoring an 11-7 team in a power conference assuming we lose to Nova, and then knock of Providence and SJU.
Let's win the BET and not worry.
Winning 3/5 would put us at the magical 20 wins with 13 losses and 11-7 in conference.
Our chances at that point would depend a lot on random teams not gobbling up automatic qualifier bids.
To feel ok I think MU needs to run the table in the regular season and pick up at least one win in the Big East tournament. That scenario would put us at 21-12 and 14-7 in conference. That'd be a pretty decent resume. Now we just need to do it!
Quote from: Avenue Commons on March 01, 2014, 08:51:10 AM
Winning 3/5 would put us at the magical 20 wins with 13 losses and 11-7 in conference.
Our chances at that point would depend a lot on random teams not gobbling up automatic qualifier bids.
To feel ok I think MU needs to run the table in the regular season and pick up at least one win in the Big East tournament. That scenario would put us at 21-12 and 14-7 in conference. That'd be a pretty decent resume. Now we just need to do it!
If we ran the table in the regular season, we would be a stone-cold lock. No question. We would have won 9 of our last 10 with big road wins. We'd have a 13-6 conference record putting us comfortably in 3rd place behind two top 10 teams. We wouldn't even have to show up to the Garden. Your scenario would probably put us at a #8 or #9 seed in the Dance.
Quote from: MU72491 on March 01, 2014, 08:11:54 AM
what happens if Marquette beats Providence and St. Johns and loses to Nova on the road. Then come Big East toury time Marquette beats someone in the first round then loses its second game. Are we in??? I know its obviously based on a bunch of different teams but could only 3 more wins give us a decent chance???
I would think outside looking in, probably first four out
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on March 01, 2014, 09:15:20 AM
I would think outside looking in, probably first four out
Beat Nova, lose to either Providence or SJU and win one in the BE tourney?
Quote from: windyplayer on March 01, 2014, 09:21:53 AM
Beat Nova, lose to either Providence or SJU and win one in the BE tourney?
That would give us roughly a 56 RPI without including the BE tourney win.
That's right on the border of not making it. 57 was Kentucky last year, just as an example. La Tech, 51. Both went to the NIT.
Quote from: Jay Bee on March 01, 2014, 08:23:59 AM
Under that scenario I'd feel "decent" about our chances.
You've never been decent, Boss.
No disrespect intended towards Wichita State, as the only teams you can beat are the ones on your schedule and they have done that, but it seems their only significant win is against St. Louis, and WS is a possible number 1 seed. My point is we haven't beaten anyone significant, but they almost haven't either.
I suppose the argument against this though is they haven't had the opportunity, but we have. I realize I may have just made my post pointless by arguing against myself.
Two things:
1) like it or not wichita state is 30-0 and if you do that u deserve ur ranking. Additionally, much of the respect they receive is duly rewarded because of last year. Return basically the same team that almost wins a national title n then goes 30-0. They deserve it n are reaally good.
2) 4 wins n mu is in, 3 n all the intangibles hurt us n we miss out, imo
Quote from: indymufan on March 01, 2014, 09:45:26 AM
No disrespect intended towards Wichita State, as the only teams you can beat are the ones on your schedule and they have done that, but it seems their only significant win is against St. Louis, and WS is a possible number 1 seed. My point is we haven't beaten anyone significant, but they almost haven't either.
I suppose the argument against this though is they haven't had the opportunity, but we have. I realize I may have just made my post pointless by arguing against myself.
Gonzaga last year. #1 seed shouldn't go to WSU, but they'll do it. RPI has WSU 8th....that's barely a 2 seed.
They do have three top 50 wins. Tennessee, BYU, SLU. Six total wins vs top 100, but you are right that most of their damage has been 101-200 where they are 14-0.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on March 01, 2014, 09:15:20 AM
I would think outside looking in, probably first four out
This.
Need four more wins in my opinion, regardless of who they come against.
Quote from: MU72491 on March 01, 2014, 08:11:54 AM
what happens if Marquette beats Providence and St. Johns and loses to Nova on the road. Then come Big East toury time Marquette beats someone in the first round then loses its second game. Are we in??? I know its obviously based on a bunch of different teams but could only 3 more wins give us a decent chance???
Don't see any way to get in with only 3 more wins. Since we are not in the first 4 out or the next 4 out, chances would be pretty slim. Only possible out would be X losing its last 2 games (very possible) so that we would grab 3rd place alone in the conference - that might get us in although I am not convinced.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on March 01, 2014, 09:55:33 AM
Gonzaga last year. #1 seed shouldn't go to WSU, but they'll do it. RPI has WSU 8th....that's barely a 2 seed.
They do have three top 50 wins. Tennessee, BYU, SLU. Six total wins vs top 100, but you are right that most of their damage has been 101-200 where they are 14-0.
You put way too much stock into RPI. I would take WSU against any team in the country except Syracuse and Florida.
Quote from: esard2011 on March 01, 2014, 11:38:08 AM
You put way too much stock into RPI. I would take WSU against any team in the country except Syracuse and Florida.
I like WSU, I may even put them in my Final Four depending on who is in their draw. I like them a lot more than Gonzaga last year. All that being said, I worry about putting stock in teams that haven't been challenged due to a weak schedule. How will they react when they have to play someone good, are behind at the half or with 5 minutes to go, etc.
For giggles, here's how the other power rating systems have them
RPI 8
Sagarin 16
Ken Pom 7
Warren Nolan 1
BPI 6
Quote from: esard2011 on March 01, 2014, 11:38:08 AM
You put way too much stock into RPI. I would take WSU against any team in the country except Syracuse and Florida.
They are a really good team. But their schedule has done them no favors.... and I am not talking about seeding, SOS, RPI, etc..
They have basically played three close games all year. That is a recipe for disaster come tourney time. They haven't been tested by great teams for a large part of their schedule and when they are finally tested in a game, they will probably lose.
Reminds me of that UNLV team after they won the championship. They were blowing out everyone they played, including the NCAA tourney. Then they finally played a close game against Duke and lost.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on March 01, 2014, 09:55:33 AM
Gonzaga last year. #1 seed shouldn't go to WSU, but they'll do it. RPI has WSU 8th....that's barely a 2 seed.
They do have three top 50 wins. Tennessee, BYU, SLU. Six total wins vs top 100, but you are right that most of their damage has been 101-200 where they are 14-0.
And who beat Gonzaga last year?
Quote from: forgetful on March 01, 2014, 11:59:19 AM
And who beat Gonzaga last year?
WSU. You could line up 15+ other teams that would have done the same thing. Gonzaga was a sham last year to be a 1 seed.
Quote from: Avenue Commons on March 01, 2014, 08:51:10 AM
Winning 3/5 would put us at the magical 20 wins with 13 losses and 11-7 in conference.
Our chances at that point would depend a lot on random teams not gobbling up automatic qualifier bids.
To feel ok I think MU needs to run the table in the regular season and pick up at least one win in the Big East tournament. That scenario would put us at 21-12 and 14-7 in conference. That'd be a pretty decent resume. Now we just need to do it!
There is nothing "magical" about 20 wins. Or 21 for that matter. Even from a top 6 conference.
22 is the number where odds go better than 50/50 for a bid.
I went through all teams with 20 or 21 wins from a big 6 conference last year--same 68 slots to fill.
LEFT OUT:
Iowa with 21 wins.
Arizona State with 21 wins.
Alabama with 21 wins
Kentucky with 21 wins
Tennessee with 20 wins
Virginia with 21 wins
Maryland with 22 wins
IN:
Villanova made it with 20 wins, had victories over Louisville and Syracuse.
Minnesota made it with 21 wins, had a 12-1 nonconference, and victories over Indiana and Wisconsin
Colorado made it with 21, had a 10-2 nonconference and a win over Arizona
Cal made it with 20, had wins over UCLA and Arizona
Oklahoma with 20 made it, had a win over Kansas
In the top 6 conferences last year, 20 or 21 win teams all had a marquee win or two under their belts.
For those counting on the conference tournament, a cautionary note: none of the teams qualifying did so with their marquee win in their conference tournament--the were all regular season gams.
In fact, Maryland's 22nd win came against Duke in the ACC tournament--and they were still left out. I think this reflects the fact that the committee members already have their working brackets filled out before the tournaments begin. Winning a game isnt' enough to grab their attention--winning the whole thing forces them to take notice.
Bottom line: 20 or 21 wins from a top six conference is less than a 50/50 proposition. Making the tourney with 20 or 21 requires a marqee win prior to the conference tournament.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on March 01, 2014, 12:06:56 PM
WSU. You could line up 15+ other teams that would have done the same thing. Gonzaga was a sham last year to be a 1 seed.
That is pure speculation. They only lost to WSU, that team went to the final four and lost to the eventual national champions by 4 points.
That team returns almost completely intact and is 30-0. Gonzaga losing does nothing to say they didn't deserve a number 1 seed. WSU's record says they earned it....and if they lose early in the NCAA tournament it will mean nothing.
Quote from: The Equalizer on March 01, 2014, 12:24:38 PM
There is nothing "magical" about 20 wins. Or 21 for that matter. Even from a top 6 conference.
22 is the number where odds go better than 50/50 for a bid.
I went through all teams with 20 or 21 wins from a big 6 conference last year--same 68 slots to fill.
LEFT OUT:
Iowa with 21 wins.
Arizona State with 21 wins.
Alabama with 21 wins
Kentucky with 21 wins
Tennessee with 20 wins
Virginia with 21 wins
Maryland with 22 wins
IN:
Villanova made it with 20 wins, had victories over Louisville and Syracuse.
Minnesota made it with 21 wins, had a 12-1 nonconference, and victories over Indiana and Wisconsin
Colorado made it with 21, had a 10-2 nonconference and a win over Arizona
Cal made it with 20, had wins over UCLA and Arizona
Oklahoma with 20 made it, had a win over Kansas
In the top 6 conferences last year, 20 or 21 win teams all had a marquee win or two under their belts.
For those counting on the conference tournament, a cautionary note: none of the teams qualifying did so with their marquee win in their conference tournament--the were all regular season gams.
In fact, Maryland's 22nd win came against Duke in the ACC tournament--and they were still left out. I think this reflects the fact that the committee members already have their working brackets filled out before the tournaments begin. Winning a game isnt' enough to grab their attention--winning the whole thing forces them to take notice.
Bottom line: 20 or 21 wins from a top six conference is less than a 50/50 proposition. Making the tourney with 20 or 21 requires a marqee win prior to the conference tournament.
Which is why we need at least 21, probably 22 with 2 signature wins. If you want to count GW for us as a signature, then we need likely 5 more wins which mean sweeping regular season and 1 win in tourney, or 3-1 regular season and play in tourney finals. We will not get in with 20 wins, and likely not 21.
Quote from: forgetful on March 01, 2014, 12:28:00 PM
That is pure speculation. They only lost to WSU, that team went to the final four and lost to the eventual national champions by 4 points.
That team returns almost completely intact and is 30-0. Gonzaga losing does nothing to say they didn't deserve a number 1 seed. WSU's record says they earned it....and if they lose early in the NCAA tournament it will mean nothing.
Yup, it is speculation. Of course, there were also a lot of smart people and rating systems that said no way Zaga should have been a 1 seed last year. They were ripe and WSU more than happily obliged in taking them down. In my opinion, someone else would have done the honors. They came damn close to being the first 1 seed in history to go down...I believe it was the 4th closest 1 vs 16 game ever.
There is no way we get an at-large without beating Nova tomorrow. Losing tomorrow puts us 0-9 against the current top 25 - not worthy.
Quote from: MarquetteFan94 on March 01, 2014, 12:39:50 PM
There is no way we get an at-large without beating Nova tomorrow. Losing tomorrow puts us 0-9 against the current top 25 - not worthy.
Well arent you just a ray of sunshine?
If we end up with 11 BE wins it will make for an interesting discussion with the selection committee. Most bubble teams with average RPI numbers also have other reasons to leave them out of the tourney, i.e., bad losses, weak conference, big blowouts, poor finishing games.
In our scenario, we could end up with 11 wins in a top 3 conference. Many quality wins (not A+ exceptional but still quality) against GT (x2), GW, Xavier. The key is we have absolutely no 'bad losses' and with the exception of Creighton, all losses were battles and close games. Another vague variable is our tourney history, especially recently under Buzz. For 3 years we have over-achieved in the tourney.
All this may not help but I'm thinking if we are sitting on the board against a team with a better RPI/SOS but who has bad losses or weaker conference or finished the season on a slide, etc. we may get the benefit of the doubt. I cannot remember a bubble team with a resume as unique as MU's this year. I also think the tourney will need 68 teams and if we win 3 games between now and selection Sunday we will be one of the 68 (and probably end up in the Sweet 16).
Quote from: Fullodds on March 01, 2014, 12:58:00 PM
If we end up with 11 BE wins it will make for an interesting discussion with the selection committee. Most bubble teams with average RPI numbers also have other reasons to leave them out of the tourney, i.e., bad losses, weak conference, big blowouts, poor finishing games.
In our scenario, we could end up with 11 wins in a top 3 conference. Many quality wins (not A+ exceptional but still quality) against GT (x2), GW, Xavier. The key is we have absolutely no 'bad losses' and with the exception of Creighton, all losses were battles and close games. Another vague variable is our tourney history, especially recently under Buzz. For 3 years we have over-achieved in the tourney.
All this may not help but I'm thinking if we are sitting on the board against a team with a better RPI/SOS but who has bad losses or weaker conference or finished the season on a slide, etc. we may get the benefit of the doubt. I cannot remember a bubble team with a resume as unique as MU's this year. I also think the tourney will need 68 teams and if we win 3 games between now and selection Sunday we will be one of the 68 (and probably end up in the Sweet 16).
We're not a top 3 conference, we're ranked 4th
Bad losses...depends on definition. I've seen anything >100 as a "bad loss". Butler is around 150th and we have that loss.
The thing about past performances....I would hope that never plays into the choosing of any team. It certainly didn't last year as they kept out defending champion Kentucky. It's supposed to be what you did this year and nothing more...thought it would help us this year, it could hurt is in other years. In the back of someone's mind, sure it could creep in there with a pick, but my hope is that it doesn't happen.
There are a million ways to consider MU's chances.. ultimately, it's a group of individuals with a lot of different information at their disposal... and like every year, it's a unique season.
Just three seasons ago MU was ranked #64 in the RPI. They got in.
USC was #67 and got in as an at-large.
We shall see.
Win the last two games + in the BET and I'm feeling DECENT. (For the first time ever?)
I guess a loss to Butler (150) on the road is not what I would consider a bad loss as compared to others in the past and especially a +100 loss at home.
Kenpom.com ranks the conferences and has BE as the 3rd place conference:
Conference Rating
1 Big Ten Conference .8190 18
2 Big 12 Conference .8059 19
3 Big East Conference .7954 20
4 Atlantic Coast Conf. .7874 21
5 Pac 12 Conference .7812 22
Quote from: Fullodds on March 01, 2014, 01:07:28 PM
I guess a loss to Butler (150) on the road is not what I would consider a bad loss as compared to others in the past and especially a +100 loss at home.
Kenpom.com ranks the conferences and has BE as the 3rd place conference:
Conference Rating
1 Big Ten Conference .8190 18
2 Big 12 Conference .8059 19
3 Big East Conference .7954 20
4 Atlantic Coast Conf. .7874 21
5 Pac 12 Conference .7812 22
I'm going off what CBS puts on their screen, ESPN, etc. when the categorize "good losses" and "bad losses". They include anything +100.
Fair enough on the Ken Pom. For others:
Sagarin Big East 4th
RPI Big East 4th
Warren Nolan Big East 4th
All right. You win. We have a bad loss and our conference is probably the 4th best.
Anyone interested in looking into bubble teams with our potential resume under the 68 team field? I'd be interested to see if there is a comparable and if so, how did they do?
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on March 01, 2014, 01:16:15 PM
I'm going off what CBS puts on their screen, ESPN, etc. when the categorize "good losses" and "bad losses". They include anything +100.
Fair enough on the Ken Pom. For others:
Sagarin Big East 4th
RPI Big East 4th
Warren Nolan Big East 4th
Not a matter of winning, just providing additional information.
Here's a USA today breakdown and they have "bad" as anything over 100.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2014/02/24/bubble-tracker-could-the-atlantic-10-ship-the-most-teams-to-ncaas/5773645/
Lots of bubble stuff here
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
ESPN can't even come close to correctly calculating RPI. They are all f***ed up. Not being cute or joking around - their RPI is really screwed. But, they (and others) often hose things up.
I think a couple of things that give me hope...
With a loss tomorrow and a win in our final 2.. then going 1-1 in the BET.. that puts you at a .5957 adjusted winning percentage. That's acceptable.
Then it gets down to SOS.. and if the folks selecting teams understand what is truth - that is, "SOS" - whether it's RPI or projection system like KenPom - is NOT a measurement of how difficult a team's schedule is relative to wins and losses.
To determine how hard a team's schedule is requires real analysis and consideration. If that is done by the committee, MU's "bad SOS" becomes less of an issue and well it should. MU's NC schedule was difficult compared to most teams.
Put on your dancing shoes (or your slippers, in the case of ZFB).
Quote from: MarquetteFan94 on March 01, 2014, 12:39:50 PM
There is no way we get an at-large without beating Nova tomorrow. Losing tomorrow puts us 0-9 against the current top 25 - not worthy.
Nailed it. Win tomorrow, or win the Tourney, or NIT
I'd keep my eye on dance card site. We have a LOT of work to do.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on March 01, 2014, 12:37:12 PM
Yup, it is speculation. Of course, there were also a lot of smart people and rating systems that said no way Zaga should have been a 1 seed last year. They were ripe and WSU more than happily obliged in taking them down. In my opinion, someone else would have done the honors. They came damn close to being the first 1 seed in history to go down...I believe it was the 4th closest 1 vs 16 game ever.
couldn't that just be d/t it being a crapshoot?
Quote from: Jay Bee on March 01, 2014, 01:44:56 PM
ESPN can't even come close to correctly calculating RPI. They are all f***ed up. Not being cute or joking around - their RPI is really screwed. But, they (and others) often hose things up.
I think a couple of things that give me hope...
With a loss tomorrow and a win in our final 2.. then going 1-1 in the BET.. that puts you at a .5957 adjusted winning percentage. That's acceptable.
Then it gets down to SOS.. and if the folks selecting teams understand what is truth - that is, "SOS" - whether it's RPI or projection system like KenPom - is NOT a measurement of how difficult a team's schedule is relative to wins and losses.
To determine how hard a team's schedule is requires real analysis and consideration. If that is done by the committee, MU's "bad SOS" becomes less of an issue and well it should. MU's NC schedule was difficult compared to most teams.
Put on your dancing shoes (or your slippers, in the case of ZFB).
Not including friday's PC/Seton Hall game, ESPN they had
Xavier at 48, Providence at 61, St. Johns at 62, and Georgetown at 65.
Realtime RPI (as of Saturday) has
Xavier at 46, Providence at 53, St. Johns at 61, Georgetown at 63
NCAA has
Xavier at 41, Providence at 60, St John's at 62 Georgetown at 65
CBS (as of Saturday)
Xaver at 46, Providence at 54, St. Johns at 61 and Georgetown at 65.
LiveRPI.com (3 PM Saturday)
Xavier at 42, Providence at 56, St. Johns at 61 and Georgetown at 63
ESPN's numbers were from before Friday's Providence/Seton Hall matchup, which would explain why they had the worst ranking on Providence.
Thus, I'm not seeing how ESPN is "all f***ed up" and not even close. They're in the same range as every other site--including the NCAA themselves.
Quote from: Fullodds on March 01, 2014, 01:07:28 PM
I guess a loss to Butler (150) on the road is not what I would consider a bad loss as compared to others in the past and especially a +100 loss at home.
Other than the fact that it may keep us out of the tournament ;D
(And yes - I realize you are talking schedule-wise)
Quote from: jesmu84 on March 01, 2014, 02:24:53 PM
couldn't that just be d/t it being a crapshoot?
Of course....then again....NEVER has a 16 lost to a 1
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on March 01, 2014, 04:05:56 PM
Of course....then again....NEVER has a 16 lost to a 1
And they still haven't.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on March 01, 2014, 04:05:56 PM
Of course....then again....NEVER has a 16 lost to a 1
right. i guess i just don't agree with that being evidence as to why Zaga should not have been a 1 seed.
Quote from: The Equalizer on March 01, 2014, 03:02:51 PM
Not including friday's PC/Seton Hall game, ESPN they had
Xavier at 48, Providence at 61, St. Johns at 62, and Georgetown at 65.
Realtime RPI (as of Saturday) has
Xavier at 46, Providence at 53, St. Johns at 61, Georgetown at 63
NCAA has
Xavier at 41, Providence at 60, St John's at 62 Georgetown at 65
CBS (as of Saturday)
Xaver at 46, Providence at 54, St. Johns at 61 and Georgetown at 65.
LiveRPI.com (3 PM Saturday)
Xavier at 42, Providence at 56, St. Johns at 61 and Georgetown at 63
ESPN's numbers were from before Friday's Providence/Seton Hall matchup, which would explain why they had the worst ranking on Providence.
Thus, I'm not seeing how ESPN is "all f***ed up" and not even close. They're in the same range as every other site--including the NCAA themselves.
There is one correct answer and they should all be able to get there. ESPN's basics are so horrendous that it's impossible they'd get to the correct answer. It's absurd how they could be as f'd up as they are.
The end result "isn't too far off", but with some of their errors they can not possible get it to be correct at any given time. It's horrible and sad. Errors that are inexcusable. You don't realize or understand what the errors are.. you only look the 'end result' at a given point in time..
Marquette beat Georgetown 75-73. For you, if ESPN said, "University of Marquette beat beat Washington State 76-72", you'd say, "well, close enough... pretty good."
I find it SICKENING.
GO ILLINI!
We absolutely have to beat providence and St. John's. Those are must wins.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on March 01, 2014, 02:08:00 PM
I'd keep my eye on dance card site. We have a LOT of work to do.
It boils down to tomorrow. Lose and our only way in will be winning the BE tourney. To may folks living in fantasyland. We have to beat a Top 20.
Quote from: willie warrior on March 01, 2014, 12:31:57 PM
Which is why we need at least 21, probably 22 with 2 signature wins. If you want to count GW for us as a signature, then we need likely 5 more wins which mean sweeping regular season and 1 win in tourney, or 3-1 regular season and play in tourney finals. We will not get in with 20 wins, and likely not 21.
That's a little pessimistic. If we get Nova, then we'll have 3 top 50 wins and our RPI jumps to the the 50s. Even with a loss at Providence. Not to mention that our numbers will also jump in the other rating formulas (BPI, KenPom, Sagarin) where we are already in the 50s.
Agree I don't think 20 does it though. Some rando team in a 1-bid league is going to screw this up (not Wichita St winning). 21 with a win over Nova is getting close or 2-1 down the stretch with two wins in the BET.
This is the way I am seeing it.
Lose to Villanova and beat Providence and St. John's results in Big East getting only three bids. Creighton, Villnova and Xavier.
Beat Nova and St. John's and Big East gets 5 bids. The above three plus MU & Providence.
Must wins for Big East to get 5 bids.
MU over Villanova
Providence over MU.
St John's could get in, if we beat Nova & Providence and lose to St. John's.
Quote from: bilsu on March 01, 2014, 08:40:11 PM
This is the way I am seeing it.
Lose to Villanova and beat Providence and St. John's results in Big East getting only three bids. Creighton, Villnova and Xavier.
Beat Nova and St. John's and Big East gets 5 bids. The above three plus MU & Providence.
Must wins for Big East to get 5 bids.
MU over Villanova
Providence over MU.
St John's could get in, if we beat Nova & Providence and lose to St. John's.
Hmm. Interesting logic.
Quote from: bilsu on March 01, 2014, 08:40:11 PM
This is the way I am seeing it.
Lose to Villanova and beat Providence and St. John's results in Big East getting only three bids. Creighton, Villnova and Xavier.
Beat Nova and St. John's and Big East gets 5 bids. The above three plus MU & Providence.
Must wins for Big East to get 5 bids.
MU over Villanova
Providence over MU.
St John's could get in, if we beat Nova & Providence and lose to St. John's.
I think we get at least four. Don't forget that a non-lock could win the BET
Quote from: Aughnanure on March 01, 2014, 08:13:46 PM
That's a little pessimistic. If we get Nova, then we'll have 3 top 50 wins and our RPI jumps to the the 50s. Even with a loss at Providence. Not to mention that our numbers will also jump in the other rating formulas (BPI, KenPom, Sagarin) where we are already in the 50s.
Agree I don't think 20 does it though. Some rando team in a 1-bid league is going to screw this up (not Wichita St winning). 21 with a win over Nova is getting close or 2-1 down the stretch with two wins in the BET.
We have 3 games left. If we go 2-1, that takes us to 19-12. Still believe we would have to play in tourney final to be considered, and if we lost we would be 21-13. I just see that it would be difficult for committee to put us in with that record, and all those other about 10-15 bubble teams out there. If we beat Villanova, that will be a big step, but IMO opinion we need to run table in remaining BEast regular season games. The real problem is that even if we beat Nova today--very difficult--we still are hanging on for each remaining game. Almost that all are must wins.
Quote from: jesmu84 on March 01, 2014, 04:44:09 PM
right. i guess i just don't agree with that being evidence as to why Zaga should not have been a 1 seed.
They shouldn't have been a 1 seed because they weren't one of the top 4 teams in the country.
Please beat NOVA!
- All Creighton fans
Quote from: Jet915 on March 02, 2014, 09:27:33 AM
Please beat NOVA!
- All Creighton fans
Need a little help there for that championship now? ;)
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on March 02, 2014, 09:44:03 AM
Need a little help there for that championship now? ;)
Yep--what a crazy finish to this league it is turning out to be. The Jays kick Vanillanova's butt twice but are on the verge of not winning the Conference. So we will be more than happy to help the Jays out.
Then Xavier who we split with handily beats Creighton at home, who we received two ass kickings from.
GTown, who we swept kicks Xavier's butt about a week ago. Other than Vanilla and the Bluejays, you can't get a gauge on the rest of the league on who is any good. Believe that Xavier will get an invite to the dance, but after that, all the rest are dicey.
We absolutely must win today, but IMO Villanova probably wants to win just as much. What a crap shoot.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on March 02, 2014, 09:19:52 AM
They shouldn't have been a 1 seed because they weren't one of the top 4 teams in the country.
Again, your opinion that has little to back it up...the committee of experts also disagreed with you.
Quote from: forgetful on March 02, 2014, 09:55:38 AM
Again, your opinion that has little to back it up...the committee of experts also disagreed with you.
Agree, my opinion just many things on a message board are opinions by folks. I was glad to see it worked out so very well in my bracket...where a bit of my expertise could kick in. ;) Having them out early along with FGCU knocking off G'Town did wonders for my bracket.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on March 02, 2014, 10:02:03 AM
Agree, my opinion just many things on a message board are opinions by folks. I was glad to see it worked out so very well in my bracket...where a bit of my expertise could kick in. ;) Having them out early along with FGCU knocking off G'Town did wonders for my bracket.
Where did you have I4 losing?