So here's the updated total win shares when you factor in a player's entire offensive and defensive contributions for the season. Our total win shares add up to 17.4 which rounded down equals our 17 actual wins on the season. The next list is a player's win share's per 40 minutes. The average is right around .100 (10%) nationally. Thought I'd offer up this info for the board to digest.
Gardner 4.3
J Wilson 2.5
Thomas 2.0
Mayo 1.9
D Wilson 1.8
Otule 1.5
Burton 1.2
Anderson 1.0
Johnson 0.7
Taylor 0.3
Dawson 0.2
Flood 0.0
Gardner .232
Burton .144
Mayo .132
J Wilson .129
Otule .123
Anderson .106
Johnson .106
Thomas .101
D Wilson .084
Taylor .046
Dawson .036
Flood .001
The interesting thing to me which is confirmed in the breakdown per 40 minutes that 4 of our team's 5 most positively impactful players are in the front court. It's a guard oriented sport these days and it's no wonder we're struggling this year. Hopefully with the influx of new recruits and the development of our youngters we have now these numbers will look differently the next few years. That's not to say a good front court is not important, just that we need playmakers on the perimeter.
Thank you for your numerous data posts. I realize that the "eye-ball" test prevails on this board (unfortunately), but your data continues to be an excellent reflection of the reality of the 2013-14 Warriors.
And, yes, you are correct. Basketball has been a guards game since the 1980's, and if you don't have guards, you just don't have it.
We all realize that Coach Williams plays favorites, but I think he rewards "character" players because his goal is to protect and reinforce the culture of the Warriors. In short, he is committed to long term. This, I believe, in world of immediate gratification, is the correct philosophy to follow.
Nonetheless, as your data proves, measured over the season our guard play - offense and defense - is not very good.
Is a per 40 win share really a good stat though?
I mean, JJJ hasn't played very much, and has racked up a lot of minutes against bad teams, so his "per 40" is going to be inflated right? It's not as though he's going to be able to hold that up against BE opponents over longer stretches of playing time.
Quote from: The Sultan of Slurpery on February 28, 2014, 03:55:12 PM
Is a per 40 win share really a good stat though?
I mean, JJJ hasn't played very much, and has racked up a lot of minutes against bad teams, so his "per 40" is going to be inflated right? It's not as though he's going to be able to hold that up against BE opponents over longer stretches of playing time.
Sultan,
There is no perfect stat, and in this case you're correct because it will weigh more heavily both positively and negatively when players play less. I could have posted just the conference numbers but I think it's more fitting to show the entire season including our preseason tough games along with the bad teams we beat. Our starters did play in those games as well.
We have three guys that top both lists (Gardner, J Wilson, Mayo) and one who's 5 on the first and 6 on the second in Otule. It makes sense for the guys who are our most positively impactful players who do so most efficiently to see as much time as possible. These numbers are a combination of both offensive and defensive contributions. I think Buzz has moved the rotations as such to his credit. Both Wilson and Dawson need a lot of minutes to impact wins, which is unfortunate because it is a key position in CBB. That said, Wilson is the more efficient player. Jake's numbers are going to be skewed somewhat as he does play a lot and I think for the first season and a half since transferring he's had a mental shooting block which negatively impacted his numbers. The kid has a great looking shot but I think he was afraid to pull the trigger as nothing seemed to fall for him when he first got here. He'll move up his per 40 minute numbers if he keeps shooting.
Based on the data I think Buzz is around 80-85% effectively utilizing his line up. Not perfect but neither is this year's team. And that number has been trending up of late as our key contributors have seen the floor much more regularly over the last 6 games.
Really nice work. A co-worker and I were tinkering around trying to figure out the best way to calculate this stat and got pulled off of it to do actual work. Well done.
Quote from: UticaBusBarn on February 28, 2014, 03:51:58 PM
Thank you for your numerous data posts. I realize that the "eye-ball" test prevails on this board (unfortunately), but your data continues to be an excellent reflection of the reality of the 2013-14 Warriors.
And, yes, you are correct. Basketball has been a guards game since the 1980's, and if you don't have guards, you just don't have it.
We all realize that Coach Williams plays favorites, but I think he rewards "character" players because his goal is to protect and reinforce the culture of the Warriors. In short, he is committed to long term. This, I believe, in world of immediate gratification, is the correct philosophy to follow.
Nonetheless, as your data proves, measured over the season our guard play - offense and defense - is not very good.
uh.. sure.. we'll go with that thought.
Even if they "eyeball test" does prevail around here, why does that matter? Buzz is an advanced stats guy. And plays his team to those stats. So he's running the team the way you seem to prefer. So why does it matter what prevails around here? Buzz seems to agree with you. Isn't that all that matters?