Why I believe winning three of four gives MU a bid - but why that is so uphill
At the midpoint of the season, I said Marquette could sneak into the tournament with a 7-2 second half. Since then MU has gone 4-1, meaning three more wins in four (tough) games could be enough. See the post just below on which players should be on the court more (http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2014/02/marquette-keeps-pulse-alive-for-madness.html) according to Value Add, but here are the combination of factors I see.
First and foremost, I believe it would be quite a feat for Marquette to win three of the last four. Obviously visiting Villanova would seem almost impossible, and winning at Providence or against a St. John's team that so thoroughly destroyed us seems tough. The only game in which MU looks like a (slight) favorite is at home against Georgetown, so the chance of winning that and pulling upsets in at least two of the other three seems daunting. So the premise of this piece is whether or not MU should expect a bid IF they win 3 of these 4.
1. HOT TEAM. I believe Marquette would benefit subjectively from the last three years, and from the fact that in this first symetrical Big East season, MU could claim to have gone 4-5 the first half and then 7-2 in the second half. The consideration for how good a team is at the time of the tournament gives us a big edge.
2. WINS OVER TOP 25 TEAMS. If MU beats everyone but Villanova to finish up the season, the biggest obstacle is that MU likely would have ZERO wins over RPI Top 25 teams. The last chance to pick up another top 25 win by the end of the regular season ended tonight when George Washington missed two potential game-tying three-pointers in the last minute at No. 10 St. Louis. If GW had won, they had three pretty easy games to close out the season that could have left them in the RPI Top 25 and thus given MU another Top 25 win in addition to the one shot at Villanova. GW could still get into the Top 25 with a good showing in the Atlantic 10, so MU has an outside shot at up to two RPI Top 25 wins, but most likely end up with ZERO. Based on RPI Forecast, 79 teams should end with at least one win over an RPI Top 25, so not being in the top 79 in that category would hurt. Even one win would put MU in with most bubble teams. Here is the expected breakdown:
a. Teams expected to have 6 wins over RPI Top 25 - 1 Wisconsin
b. 4+ wins over top 25 - 6 total teams (counting Wisconsin)
c. 3+ wins over top 25 - only 13 total
d. 2+ wins over top 25 - only 36 total (theoretically possible with win over Nova AND a GW run in A10 to put them in Top 25)
e. 1+ wins over top 25 - 79 teams - so at least 10 teams will get at-large bids with only 1 win over RPI top 25
3. WINS OVER TOP 50 TEAMS. Marquette could theoretically end with anywhere between 1 and 8 wins over the RPI Top 50.
a. Only 37 teams end up with 4+ wins over RPI top 50 teams, so logically if MU can get to four that is a huge RPI Top 50 wins.
b. Another 20 teams have exactly 3 wins over RPI Top 50 teams - so basically 3 wins is a strong bubble team as it would include the 38th to 57th team and just over half of those would make the tournament so three helps MUs case.
c. Anoother 21 teams are forecast to have exactly 2 wins over the RPI Top 50, so if MU ends up there as they are now then that would be a little shaky - that puts them in with the 58th through 78th best teams in that category, so a slight negative.
d. It is possible MU could end up with only the George Washington win, if Xavier (currently projected to finish 45th before the loss to Georgetown today), Georgetown (67th before win over Xavier), Providence (64th) and even potential victim St. John's (55th) could all end up missing the Top 50 to leave MU with only the one win over GW, which would likely kill any hope since that would leave 78 teams in front of us with at least two Top 25 wins.
However, keep in mind that some combination of those teams could end up in the Top 50, so MU could also pick up two Top 50 wins against Georgetown or Providence to double up, so if MU does win three of the last four then there is a good chance MU could end with three, four or even five Top 50 wins - at which point I believe MU is in the tournament.
4. MU is projected to finish in the Top 50 in strength of schedule - 48th is the actual projection. So keep rooting for MU's opponents in their other games to assure MU could go in as a hot team (7-2 second half) with a Top 50 SOS, and if some combination of Georgetown, Xavier, Providence and St. John's win their other games MU could easily finish with 3-5 wins over Top 25 teams by the end of the regular season.
I believe all of this adds up to a bid IF MU wins three of the last four to complete a 7-2 second half.
Now the hard part. The odds at www.kenpom.com give MU a 12% chance of beating Georgetown, Providence AND St. John's. So if MU loses at Nova, those are the odds.
Yes, I believe MU gets into the tournament winning three of the last four - but the team would have earned it.
Otherwise, we go into the Big East Tournament having to win out at Madison Square Garden to make the tournament.
Source: Why I believe winning three of four gives MU a bid - but why that is so uphill (http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2014/02/why-i-believe-winning-three-of-four.html)
The committee no longer explicitly cares about the 'hot team.' Only the overall body of work:
Q: I was wondering if you could restate your committee's policy on whether more emphasis is placed on the last 10 or 12 games a team plays or if all of the season has equal emphasis?
Smith: As you know, most people know, for a period of time we had the last 10 or the last 12 on nitty gritty sheets. We decided a couple years ago to eliminate that consideration. We leave that to each individual committee member to determine if that's an important criteria for them.
It's not an important criteria for the entire committee that we focus on it like we did for that short period of time. Each committee member takes it into consideration in their own way.
http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/tag/_/name/ncaa-tournament-selection-committee
19-12 without any quality/signature wins will not get us in the dance. If we go 3-1 and beat Vanillanova, IMO opinion we would need to play in conference tourney final and that might "slip" us in. A resume for us with only 1 signature win without playing in BEast final will not get us in. That would put us at 21-13, which still could be dicey.
If we win three of the last four I still think we would need at least one win in the BE tourney as well. Our only impressive away from home wins would be GW, Georgetown, and Providence (assumed in winning last three of four).
If we go 2-2 but get to the BE tourney final we may have a shot as well. Have to win four more games somehow.
We do not play in a vacuum. Whether or not we get in depends on the other teams on the bubble. And right now...they are bad. It is the softest bubble I have ever seen. I think 3-1 gets us in (with a tourney win) but that is making a lot of assumptions about other bubble teams.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on February 24, 2014, 11:28:11 AM
We do not play in a vacuum. Whether or not we get in depends on the other teams on the bubble. And right now...they are bad. It is the softest bubble I have ever seen. I think 3-1 gets us in (with a tourney win) but that is making a lot of assumptions about other bubble teams.
Plus bids that go away due to upsets in conference tournaments, which always happens.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on February 24, 2014, 11:28:11 AM
We do not play in a vacuum. Whether or not we get in depends on the other teams on the bubble. And right now...they are bad. It is the softest bubble I have ever seen. I think 3-1 gets us in (with a tourney win) but that is making a lot of assumptions about other bubble teams.
This. Speculation is fun regarding this subject, but there are so many variables to account for. That being said, everyone is so gung-ho about these signature wins, but it is ONE factor in assessing a resume. Yes, I know it's weighed heavily compared to others, but a lack of them can be overcome.
How does our resume compare to Xavier, Providence, St. John's, and Georgetown? Just as a quick check I checked ESPN and he had 3 of the 4 in, with GU being #6 out.
We are right there in the standings and our overall record is comparable especially if we manage to go 3-1. I just don't know the specifics of how their resumes compare to our admittedly soft resume.
I know that it's not that simple and just because one of those teams falls out doesn't mean we get to replace them, I'm just wondering about the comparison.
Right now, IMO opinion, at best only two of the four you listed will get in--likely St. John's, and possibly Providence, but that is very dicey. I think it is realistic that only 3 from BEast get in, with a 4th possible.
I beleive that four will get in. The top 3 and the winner of the 4 vs 5 game.
Quote from: TJ on February 24, 2014, 12:08:12 PM
How does our resume compare to Xavier, Providence, St. John's, and Georgetown? Just as a quick check I checked ESPN and he had 3 of the 4 in, with GU being #6 out.
We are right there in the standings and our overall record is comparable especially if we manage to go 3-1. I just don't know the specifics of how their resumes compare to our admittedly soft resume.
I know that it's not that simple and just because one of those teams falls out doesn't mean we get to replace them, I'm just wondering about the comparison.
I've been thinking this for weeks now. X, Gtown and PC have been counted ahead of MU for weeks without a real big difference in our resumes, and with the head to head (so far) in our favor. I think it comes down to this; it's more difficult to play your way out of consideration, than it is to play your way in – at least when it comes to the weekly bracket projections.
Those 3 were all safely "in" at some point, and they have slowly leveled out, but it hasn't really caught up to their tourney projections yet. Whereas with MU, they basically have amassed the same record/credentials, but since they are "out", are in need of some kind of statement to leapfrog those other teams.
For the record I don't think MU has a tournament resume yet, but can get there with 4 more wins – one of which being over Nova. Also, in addition to the 3 BEast teams mentioned, the entire bubble is ridiculously soft.
First things first – take care of biz against G Town this week...
This is all well and good, but we are not going 3-1.
Quote from: TJ on February 24, 2014, 12:08:12 PM
How does our resume compare to Xavier, Providence, St. John's, and Georgetown? Just as a quick check I checked ESPN and he had 3 of the 4 in, with GU being #6 out.
We are right there in the standings and our overall record is comparable especially if we manage to go 3-1. I just don't know the specifics of how their resumes compare to our admittedly soft resume.
I know that it's not that simple and just because one of those teams falls out doesn't mean we get to replace them, I'm just wondering about the comparison.
All of them have better schedules (except Xavier...basically same), all have better wins than us, and as of today, all have better RPIs than us.
Here are the comparisons
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/XAVIER/MARQET
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/STJOHN/MARQET
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/GTOWN/MARQET
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/PROV/MARQET
Quote from: PuertoRicanNightmare on February 24, 2014, 01:49:55 PM
This is all well and good, but we are not going 3-1.
Thanks for opening up my schedule over the next few weeks.
I'm looking to trade in the Dow. Any tips?
Quote from: windyplayer on February 24, 2014, 02:26:10 PM
Thanks for opening up my schedule over the next few weeks.
I'm looking to trade in the Dow. Any tips?
HEMP
CANV
NVLX
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on February 24, 2014, 02:12:17 PM
All of them have better schedules (except Xavier...basically same), all have better wins than us, and as of today, all have better RPIs than us.
Our non-conference scheduling of cupcakes is really coming back to haunt us. I hope more time and effort is put into this next year. Literally, we'd be looking at an RPI 20 spots higher if we'd played teams in the 175-250 range in the RPI instead of 250+. Obviously with some teams it is tough to guess where they'll land RPI-wise, but the likes of Grambling, IUPUI, Samford, Ball State and New Hampshire are killing us. That said, the committee is made up of people that are supposed to understand this, in fact, a committee member has even explained that they will consider "intent" in schduling, meaning they realize how the system can be gamed, and well, in the opposite case, how the system can game a team's RPI. MU game been gamed by the RPI this year. In all fairness though, if we had beaten one of ASU, SDSU, or New Mexico, this wouldn't be a problem.
I think people are way to optimistic on our finish.
I think most people agree that winning at Vill is going to be a monumental task and that beating Georgetown at home represents our "easiest" chance at a victory.
But beating Prov on the road is going to be very difficult. They are battling for a spot in the dance like we are and are very talented. As we know, winning on the road is tough.
And I am beginning to feel like I am the only one who thinks we have little chance of beating SJU at home. They are such a terrible match up for us at every position and they are seemingly playing well. I just don't see us having much of a chance at all in that one, but others seem to think differently.
My optimistic thought is that we will finish 2-2.
Quote from: IrwinFletcher on February 24, 2014, 03:21:51 PM
I think people are way to optimistic on our finish.
I think most people agree that winning at Vill is going to be a monumental task and that beating Georgetown at home represents our "easiest" chance at a victory.
But beating Prov on the road is going to be very difficult. They are battling for a spot in the dance like we are and are very talented. As we know, winning on the road is tough.
And I am beginning to feel like I am the only one who thinks we have little chance of beating SJU at home. They are such a terrible match up for us at every position and they are seemingly playing well. I just don't see us having much of a chance at all in that one, but others seem to think differently.
My optimistic thought is that we will finish 2-2.
Our remaining schedule cuts both ways. Yes, it's a really difficult finish and there is potential for a less than desirable finish. However, because our schedule is so difficult, we still have the opportunity to play our way into the tournament. So ultimately, it's a blessing that we're faced with this daunting stretch...and at this point, what can we be, but optimistic. It's that time of the year.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on February 24, 2014, 03:17:47 PM
Our non-conference scheduling of cupcakes is really coming back to haunt us. I hope more time and effort is put into this next year. Literally, we'd be looking at an RPI 20 spots higher if we'd played teams in the 175-250 range in the RPI instead of 250+. Obviously with some teams it is tough to guess where they'll land RPI-wise, but the likes of Grambling, IUPUI, Samford, Ball State and New Hampshire are killing us. That said, the committee is made up of people that are supposed to understand this, in fact, a committee member has even explained that they will consider "intent" in schduling, meaning they realize how the system can be gamed, and well, in the opposite case, how the system can game a team's RPI. MU game been gamed by the RPI this year. In all fairness though, if we had beaten one of ASU, SDSU, or New Mexico, this wouldn't be a problem.
No. Losing all our quality non conference games is coming back to haunt us.
Playing cupcakes in the 175-200 range while going 0-5 against Wisconsin, Ohio State, New Mexico, ASU, and San Diego State would put us in no better position than we are right now. We'd still lack a signature win. We'd still be stuck with a 16-11 overall record.
Had we gone 5-0 against those five teams this year, we'd be safely in right now with a 21-6 record. Not a single person on earth would be arguing we don't belong becuase we played too many cupcakes.
Quote from: windyplayer on February 24, 2014, 04:13:21 PM
Our remaining schedule cuts both ways. Yes, it's a really difficult finish and there is potential for a less than desirable finish. However, because our schedule is so difficult, we still have the opportunity to play our way into the tournament. So ultimately, it's a blessing that we're faced with this daunting stretch...and at this point, what can we be, but optimistic. It's that time of the year.
I agree that having a difficult finish presents us with opportunities, but that wasn't my point.
My point is that people on this board are really undervaluing Providence and St Johns. Providence is a real solid team and we have to play them on the road. St Johns is a very talented team that presents the ultimate in mismatches for Marquette.
They are fast, they are quick, they are athletic and they are long. All things that we are not and they can exploit against MU. The really embarrassed us at The Garden and think they will do the same in Milwaukee.
3-1 and I'd be feeling pretty decent.
edit: with the 1 L being at Nova
Quote from: The Equalizer on February 24, 2014, 05:32:26 PM
No. Losing all our quality non conference games is coming back to haunt us.
Playing cupcakes in the 175-200 range while going 0-5 against Wisconsin, Ohio State, New Mexico, ASU, and San Diego State would put us in no better position than we are right now. We'd still lack a signature win. We'd still be stuck with a 16-11 overall record.
Had we gone 5-0 against those five teams this year, we'd be safely in right now with a 21-6 record. Not a single person on earth would be arguing we don't belong becuase we played too many cupcakes.
I think the game @ butler will be the one that really hurts us in the standings. We would be in very good shape had we not imploded in that game.
I think we need to win all four games plus two wins in the BET to have an outside chance at making the tournament. That would put us at 22-12 and position us to be a 13 or 14 seed that no one wants as a first round opponent.Does anyone know if the NCAA has historically taken into account potential match ups when filling out the field? It would appear that they do based on past practice, but I don't really know.
This has some info re: Adjusted Winning Percentages & more... some rough AWP's... Adjusted Winning Percentages of #9 & worse at-large seeds (http://latenighthoops.com/ncaa-tourney-talk-awp-minnesota-gophers/#.Uwv8zfldVPI)
...but, MU's isn't good right now. .5739.
If they go 3-1 with the one loss being on the road... and then
0-1 in BET: .5809
1-1 in BET: .5957
2-1 in BET: .6096
3-1 in BET: .6225
Just win 3 of 4 and then 2 in the BEast tourney and we're in OK shape! ;)
Quote from: 79Warrior on February 24, 2014, 07:11:03 PM
I think the game @ butler will be the one that really hurts us in the standings. We would be in very good shape had we not imploded in that game.
Providence lost to Seton Hall at home and St. John's lost to DePaul. However, we would be looking very good, if we had won the overtime game against Butler or Villanova.
Quote from: Chris Columbo on February 24, 2014, 08:20:43 PM
I think we need to win all four games plus two wins in the BET to have an outside chance at making the tournament. That would put us at 22-12 and position us to be a 13 or 14 seed that no one wants as a first round opponent.Does anyone know if the NCAA has historically taken into account potential match ups when filling out the field? It would appear that they do based on past practice, but I don't really know.
I heard once they try to avoid first weekend rematches of the past few years NCAA tournaments and try to avoid conference mates playing each other too early.
Quote from: Chris Columbo on February 24, 2014, 08:20:43 PM
I think we need to win all four games plus two wins in the BET to have an outside chance at making the tournament. That would put us at 22-12 and position us to be a 13 or 14 seed that no one wants as a first round opponent.Does anyone know if the NCAA has historically taken into account potential match ups when filling out the field? It would appear that they do based on past practice, but I don't really know.
Probably not. 22-12 is at least a 10 seed. And no at large teams will be 14 seeds.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on February 24, 2014, 10:11:34 PM
Probably not. 22-12 is at least a 10 seed. And no at large teams will be 14 seeds.
You never know...there are a lot of good conference leaders in the mid majors. SF Austin, Toledo, Harvard, etc. Some of them may sneak into the 11/12 seed range and bump some at large bids. Like I keep saying, its a REALLY soft bubble
Quote from: Chris Columbo on February 24, 2014, 08:20:43 PM
I think we need to win all four games plus two wins in the BET to have an outside chance at making the tournament. That would put us at 22-12 and position us to be a 13 or 14 seed that no one wants as a first round opponent.Does anyone know if the NCAA has historically taken into account potential match ups when filling out the field? It would appear that they do based on past practice, but I don't really know.
Need more attention?