I see alot of "experts" currently show PC as in. Is the win over Creighton really the sole justification for that? They have a solid conference record but have mostly beaten the lower end teams in conference.
Our OOC cupcakes are going to hurt us all the way through this year. Even if we win out (Not including the BEast Tourney) I don't know about our chances if PC is in and we are squarely out at the momnent
Quote from: Clam Crowder on February 17, 2014, 01:30:51 PM
I see alot of "experts" currently show PC as in. Is the win over Creighton really the sole justification for that?
The Creighton win is important, of course, but the "Ed Cooley Hair" factor is pretty damned compelling in its own right.
Quote from: Clam Crowder on February 17, 2014, 01:30:51 PM
I see alot of "experts" currently show PC as in. Is the win over Creighton really the sole justification for that? They have a solid conference record but have mostly beaten the lower end teams in conference.
Our OOC cupcakes are going to hurt us all the way through this year. Even if we win out (Not including the BEast Tourney) I don't know about our chances if PC is in and we are squarely out at the momnent
That'd give us two wins over providence, a win @Nova and a win over Creighton and likely in sole possession of 3rd place so not a chance they'd deny us.
Quote from: BagpipingBoxer on February 17, 2014, 01:37:59 PM
That'd give us two wins over providence, a win @Nova and a win over Creighton and likely in sole possession of 3rd place so not a chance they'd deny us.
Likely sole possession of 3rd? Unless Xavier also won out..we would have 3rd lol.
With sweeps of gtown and prov. if that somehow happens. Were talking 6 seed barring first round BET flub.
Quote from: HaywardsHeroes32 on February 17, 2014, 01:40:17 PM
Likely sole possession of 3rd? Unless Xavier also won out..we would have 3rd lol.
With sweeps of gtown and prov. if that somehow happens. Were talking 6 seed barring first round BET flub.
but then Nova and Creighton would each have 4 losses and us and X would each have 5 sooo...
Quote from: BagpipingBoxer on February 17, 2014, 01:43:08 PM
but then Nova and Creighton would each have 4 losses and us and X would each have 5 sooo...
Forgot that Creighton owns the tiebreaker over Nova
Quote from: BagpipingBoxer on February 17, 2014, 01:37:59 PM
That'd give us two wins over providence, a win @Nova and a win over Creighton and likely in sole possession of 3rd place so not a chance they'd deny us.
A lot of ifs in that, Piper.
Quote from: BagpipingBoxer on February 17, 2014, 01:43:08 PM
but then Nova and Creighton would each have 4 losses and us and X would each have 5 sooo...
Ya I'm saying winning out is more than likely 3rd place. It's almost impossible not to get 3rd.
Quote from: willie warrior on February 17, 2014, 01:46:09 PM
A lot of ifs in that, Piper.
I wasn't the one who said even if we win out I'm just arguing that if that were to happen there's no chance they take Providence over us.
Xaviers remaing schedule is brutal
Quote from: BagpipingBoxer on February 17, 2014, 01:48:17 PM
I wasn't the one who said even if we win out I'm just arguing that if that were to happen there's no chance they take Providence over us.
Are you honestly worried about missing the tournament if we win out? Geez.
Quote from: windyplayer on February 17, 2014, 02:04:41 PM
Are you honestly worried about missing the tournament if we win out? Geez.
ok people like you need to take what I'm saying for what I'm saying and stop attempting to twist my words. I'm not worried about missing the tournament read my comments I'm defending that we'd get in why are you questioning me? Read and think beforehand.
Quote from: HaywardsHeroes32 on February 17, 2014, 01:40:17 PM
Likely sole possession of 3rd? Unless Xavier also won out..we would have 3rd lol.
With sweeps of gtown and prov. if that somehow happens. Were talking 6 seed barring first round BET flub.
We're not even on the bubble yet and you're talking a 6 seed? You passin' some money under the table or what.
Quote from: brandx on February 17, 2014, 02:17:27 PM
We're not even on the bubble yet and you're talking a 6 seed? You passin' some money under the table or what.
Dude you really need to learn how to read. Like seriously it does wonders just learning simple comprehension.
The OP said IF we won out. So I BASED my response off of that notion.
Got it yet? Probably not. But we can hope.
Quote from: BagpipingBoxer on February 17, 2014, 02:10:12 PM
ok people like you need to take what I'm saying for what I'm saying and stop attempting to twist my words. I'm not worried about missing the tournament read my comments I'm defending that we'd get in why are you questioning me? Read and think beforehand.
OK, but that fact that you're even asserting that there's no way the committee can take Providence over us if we win out leads me to think that it's not so obvious to you that we would be in with a decent seed--regardless of what the hell happens to Providence. I guess I'm confused as to why you made the statement in the first place.
The original poster said this:
Quote from: Clam Crowder on February 17, 2014, 01:30:51 PM
Our OOC cupcakes are going to hurt us all the way through this year. Even if we win out (Not including the BEast Tourney) I don't know about our chances if PC is in and we are squarely out at the momnent
That's what BagpipingBoxer and HaywardsHeroes32 were responding to. Not that hard to understand.
Quote from: River rat on February 17, 2014, 01:49:10 PM
Xaviers remaing schedule is brutal
Yeah, I think a 2-4 finish for them is likely.
Quote from: windyplayer on February 17, 2014, 02:30:39 PM
OK, but that fact that you're even asserting that there's no way the committee can take Providence over us if we win out leads me to think that it's not so obvious to you that we would be in with a decent seed--regardless of what the hell happens to Providence. I guess I'm confused as to why you made the statement in the first place.
Ok let me state this very simply: I believe if we were to win out that we'd be in solidly. The original poster here said that we'd have trouble getting in over Providence even if we won out. I am defending that if we were to win out that we would be in solidly and definitely in over Providence. So I'm confused what you're having trouble getting...
The criteria for getting in has nothing to do with where we finish in the Big East.
Look at:
Won-Loss
RPI
What the selection Committee did the last couple of years.
Consideration:
add 1 loss for the BET (0-1,1-1,2-1) ... of course 3-0 its academic. (4 games? If we're seeded lower than 6...we're already toast)
History:
14 losses - no way
55+ RPI - no way
13 losses - incredibly special case from very-strong conference (BE not strong)
so last 6 we need
1. 5-1 minimum
or
2. 4-2 (2-1 BET), 55- RPI and special consideration.
On other threads, some have done RPI predictions and I think 4-2/2-1 will generally get us under 55 depending on who we play....not sure. "In a position to be in a position."
This thread makes my head hurt
Quote from: jsheim on February 17, 2014, 03:29:35 PM
The criteria for getting in has nothing to do with where we finish in the Big East.
Look at:
Won-Loss
RPI
What the selection Committee did the last couple of years.
Consideration:
add 1 loss for the BET (0-1,1-1,2-1) ... of course 3-0 its academic. (4 games? If we're seeded lower than 6...we're already toast)
History:
14 losses - no way
55+ RPI - no way
13 losses - incredibly special case from very-strong conference (BE not strong)
so last 6 we need
1. 5-1 minimum
or
2. 4-2 (2-1 BET), 55- RPI and special consideration.
On other threads, some have done RPI predictions and I think 4-2/2-1 will generally get us under 55 depending on who we play....not sure. "In a position to be in a position."
Good post, but I gotta dispute a couple things.
1) "55+ RPI = no way" is false. See stat at the bottom.
2) "14 losses - no way". It's been done as well, see the bottom.
3) "BE is not strong" is false. This Big East is a strong conference. Right now, 7 of 10 teams are in contention for bids... that's highly unusual for a 10-team league. Current Lunardi has 5 teams in with Georgetown as the first team out. The record-breaking 2011 Big East with 11 teams had 68% of the teams getting in... if Big East gets 6 teams in (completely possible scenario), it's an incredible 60% of the teams.
4) In today's 68 team format, 13-loss at-large teams are not considered "incredibly special cases." They are usually double-digit seeds, however. Last year's Nova (20-13) as a 9-seed is the exception.
Here's a link with great history on the RPI and tournament selection... Note that these stats do NOT include last year's tournament, so there are probably more examples.
http://www.collegerpi.com/subs/rpitrivia.html
(http://www.collegerpi.com/subs/rpitrivia.html)
Here are some of the relevant stats...
"The lowest rated teams to get at-large bids (ALB): #67 USC, #64 Marquette (2011), #63 NC State (2005), #63 Stanford (2007)."
"Most losses to get an At Large Bid: 14 (Arizona - 2008, five teams in 2011)."
"Worst record to get an ALB: 18-14 .563 (Arizona - 2008, Michigan St - 2011)"
I'm not saying whether MU's resume will equal those teams, but your facts aren't correct. With the weak bubble this year, I'd be very surprised if a 13-loss team isn't in the field.
Quote from: wardle2wade on February 17, 2014, 03:54:27 PM
Good post, but I gotta dispute a couple things.
1) "55+ RPI = no way" is false. See stat at the bottom.
2) "14 losses - no way". It's been done as well, see the bottom.
3) "BE is not strong" is false. This Big East is a strong conference. Right now, 7 of 10 teams are in contention for bids... that's highly unusual for a 10-team league. Current Lunardi has 5 teams in with Georgetown as the first team out. The record-breaking 2011 Big East with 11 teams had 68% of the teams getting in... if Big East gets 6 teams in (completely possible scenario), it's an incredible 60% of the teams.
4) In today's 68 team format, 13-loss at-large teams are not considered "incredibly special cases." They are usually double-digit seeds, however. Last year's Nova (20-13) as a 9-seed is the exception.
Here's a link with great history on the RPI and tournament selection... Note that these stats do NOT include last year's tournament, so there are probably more examples.
http://www.collegerpi.com/subs/rpitrivia.html
(http://www.collegerpi.com/subs/rpitrivia.html)
Here are some of the relevant stats...
"The lowest rated teams to get at-large bids (ALB): #67 USC, #64 Marquette (2011), #63 NC State (2005), #63 Stanford (2007)."
"Most losses to get an At Large Bid: 14 (Arizona - 2008, five teams in 2011)."
"Worst record to get an ALB: 18-14 .563 (Arizona - 2008, Michigan St - 2011)"
I'm not saying whether MU's resume will equal those teams, but your facts aren't correct. With the weak bubble this year, I'd be very surprised if a 13-loss team isn't in the field.
Good post....I like the collegerpi link where it looks like you got a lot of your facts. It gives me more hope that 2 losses (Creighton+Nova) we can still get in. I looked at the last two years of RPI and losses....but 2011 I did not and 4 teams with 13 losses in 2011 is a surprise....so good point....more hope :).
But generally you quote outliers...."No Way" is not absolute but its reality. The BE is not strong....don't get me wrong...its not mid-major but a lot of the teams play at that level this year....and MU has played like that some times. The conf RPI isn't bad but we're not outstanding like the old BE.
If we go 4-2 I will be biting my nails at bubble time....but with a bit more hope thanks to your post.
Quote from: Clam Crowder on February 17, 2014, 01:30:51 PM
I see alot of "experts" currently show PC as in. Is the win over Creighton really the sole justification for that? They have a solid conference record but have mostly beaten the lower end teams in conference.
Our OOC cupcakes are going to hurt us all the way through this year. Even if we win out (Not including the BEast Tourney) I don't know about our chances if PC is in and we are squarely out at the momnent
It's the only justification.
PC's non-con schedule wasn't all that impressive and they didn't beat a single surefire Tournament team. But go on a five game win streak in a horrendously terrible year of college basketball and people take notice, especially when one of the wins came against an illness-afflicted Creighton squad.
It'll be amazing to see a 10-8 PC squad with sweeps of Butler and DePaul along with a split of Hall to make up half of their wins dancing in the NCAAs. Marquette really screwed the pooch this season.
Quote from: Golden Avalanche on February 17, 2014, 04:48:00 PM
Marquette really screwed the pooch this season.
Actually, what I'm hearing is that if there was a year to not live up to expectations and still dance, it's this year. And considering MU still has a fair chance to make the tourney this year, not sure you can make these kinds of proclamations just yet. But keep hedging...
Quote from: windyplayer on February 17, 2014, 07:51:38 PM
Actually, what I'm hearing is that if there was a year to not live up to expectations and still dance, it's this year. And considering MU still has a fair chance to make the tourney this year, not sure you can make these kinds of proclamations just yet. But keep hedging...
It's interesting that there has been a debate of sorts going on the last 5 years or so about college basketball being watered down, or the quality being poor...and there being a "soft bubble," etc. What I feel has really taken place is that there is just so much parity in college hoops...that it is really hard to distinguish the best teams from say 25-75....the margins are getting to be razor thin. All the training, AAU basketball, kids trending toward "specializing" in a sport..in my view make the disparity in talent very little at these Top 25-75 programs. Perhaps more than ever before, many teams will have an argument they should have gotten in, given who else got in...due to the parity taking place in college hoops.
Quote from: Golden Avalanche on February 17, 2014, 04:48:00 PM
It's the only justification.
PC's non-con schedule wasn't all that impressive and they didn't beat a single surefire Tournament team. But go on a five game win streak in a horrendously terrible year of college basketball and people take notice, especially when one of the wins came against an illness-afflicted Creighton squad.
It'll be amazing to see a 10-8 PC squad with sweeps of Butler and DePaul along with a split of Hall to make up half of their wins dancing in the NCAAs. Marquette really screwed the pooch this season.
I'd be surprised to see PC get in. It's one of the reasons why I think 4 teams max from the Big East.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on February 17, 2014, 08:10:31 PM
I'd be surprised to see PC get in. It's one of the reasons why I think 4 teams max from the Big East.
It is tough to see MU, Gtown, and SJU getting invites--given their match-ups with each other and the difficulty of their schedules--unless the less-than-impressive team down the stretch wins the BEast Tourney.