Thru the magic of Excel and this website: http://warrennolan.com/
here are some key
end-of-year stats on Teams that got
At-Large Bids in 2013 to the NCAA tourney:
So, except for Louisville, subtract 1 from the losses column to get the pre-tourney loss total. Also need to subtract tourney wins from the Wins column...didn't have that.
The key idea here is that Marquette has a high bar to get in with 13 losses...but its possible.
Note: Villanova's website says 20 wins but I think they're counting a non-div1 game.
| Name | Wins | Losses | RPI Rank | SOS Rank | AP Poll | Coaches Poll | Seed in Region | |
| Villanova | 19 | 14 | 54 | 20 | | | 9 | |
| Minnesota | 21 | 13 | 30 | 5 | | 40 | 11 | |
| Illinois | 22 | 13 | 38 | 11 | | 34 | 7 | |
| Oklahoma | 20 | 12 | 44 | 27 | | | 10 | |
| Colorado | 21 | 12 | 43 | 24 | | | 10 | |
| California | 21 | 12 | 52 | 34 | | 30 | 12 | |
| Cincinnati | 22 | 12 | 49 | 23 | | | 10 | |
| Wisconsin | 23 | 12 | 31 | 13 | 18 | 22 | 5 | |
| Iowa State | 23 | 12 | 41 | 33 | | 32 | 10 | |
| Boise State | 19 | 11 | 50 | 59 | | | 13 | |
| San Diego State | 21 | 11 | 35 | 21 | | | 7 | |
| Missouri | 23 | 11 | 42 | 50 | | | 9 | |
| North Carolina | 24 | 11 | 19 | 9 | 27 | 29 | 8 | |
| North Carolina State | 24 | 11 | 37 | 36 | | | 8 | |
| UNLV | 24 | 10 | 29 | 22 | 28 | | 5 | |
| Temple | 24 | 10 | 40 | 53 | | 36 | 9 | |
| La Salle | 24 | 10 | 34 | 54 | | 24 | 13 | |
| UCLA | 25 | 10 | 32 | 25 | 24 | 39 | 6 | |
| Notre Dame | 25 | 10 | 39 | 48 | 23 | 40 | 7 | |
| Syracuse | 30 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 4 | |
| Oklahoma State | 24 | 9 | 28 | 41 | 17 | 27 | 5 | |
| Colorado State | 24 | 9 | 20 | 32 | 34 | 35 | 8 | |
| Pittsburgh | 24 | 9 | 46 | 66 | 20 | 36 | 8 | |
| Michigan State | 26 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 3 | |
| Marquette | 26 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 3 | |
| Butler | 26 | 9 | 21 | 28 | 29 | 26 | 6 | |
| Virginia Commonwealth | 27 | 9 | 26 | 35 | 26 | 23 | 5 | |
| Wichita State | 30 | 9 | 18 | 39 | 35 | 4 | 9 | |
| Kansas State | 26 | 8 | 23 | 44 | 12 | 20 | 4 | |
| Arizona | 27 | 8 | 16 | 19 | 21 | 14 | 6 | |
| Florida | 29 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |
| Michigan | 30 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 2 | 4 | |
| Georgetown | 25 | 7 | 15 | 18 | 8 | 17 | 2 | |
| Saint Mary's College | 27 | 7 | 25 | 73 | 32 | 33 | 11 | |
| Indiana | 29 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | |
| Middle Tennessee | 28 | 6 | 33 | 128 | | | 11 | |
| Duke | 30 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |
Thanks for the perspective on last year.
Pretty typical that only three at large bids went to teams with an RPI in the 50's. MU has some work to do there, but fortunately, every opponent remaining on our schedule except DePaul is ahead of us in RPI standings. Gotta go to work.
Please update this analysis using adjusted win-loss
No way with 13 losses.
No key OOC wins will pop this MU bubble if they get that high in the L's.
Quote from: 77ncaachamps on February 13, 2014, 09:31:13 PM
No way with 13 losses.
No key OOC wins will pop this MU bubble if they get that high in the L's.
13 losses (aka 5-2 finish) means MU would have added 4 more quality wins (pick 4 from X, Gtown, @prov, creighton, @nova). You should familiarize yourself with the other bubble teams. Lot of flaws and bad losses.
Wouldn't 13 losses be a 4-3 finish?
Gotta get RPI into the 40's.
Can anyone calculate what that will take based on our remaining opponents?
Is it possible?
Quote from: WarriorFan on February 13, 2014, 10:52:16 PM
Gotta get RPI into the 40's.
Can anyone calculate what that will take based on our remaining opponents?
Is it possible?
Already been done in several threads.
http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=41143.msg567196#msg567196
Quote from: chris006 on February 13, 2014, 10:45:07 PM
Wouldn't 13 losses be a 4-3 finish?
People assuming a loss in the BET. If we don't lose in the BET, we are in the tourney anyways.
Quote from: Jay Bee on February 13, 2014, 06:03:26 PM
Please update this analysis using adjusted win-loss
Jay Bee, you're right about that....I was hoping to easily get
pre-ncaa-tourney numbers...that gives the best feel. Could only find the end-of-year numbers that were easily cut/paste/reformat to the table and I don't have the time to remove tourney wins for every team.
I can say the RPIs are pretty right-on and the point is (if you subtract 1 from the Losses column) that its pretty darn hard to get in with 13 losses....if you assume 1-loss in the BET and 2 losses left in the regular season....we're in real trouble unless our RPI zooms up...and others have calculated that won't happen.
We've got to beat Xavier and Creighton.
Go 5-2 puts at 19-12 with an RPI in low 50's. Won't get in with that, unless we win two in BEast tourney and then will be iffy. Of course with such a huge soft bubble this year, according to some "experts" with about 50 teams in that softie, who knows?
Quote from: willie warrior on February 14, 2014, 11:28:03 AM
Go 5-2 puts at 19-12 with an RPI in low 50's. Won't get in with that, unless we win two in BEast tourney and then will be iffy. Of course with such a huge soft bubble this year, according to some "experts" with about 50 teams in that softie, who knows?
Win 1 in BET with that and we are in and I don't think it is even the play in game.
Look at the bubble right now. Look at the records and RPI's of some that Lunardi has in front of us now.
Quote from: HaywardsHeroes32 on February 14, 2014, 11:34:16 AM
Win 1 in BET with that and we are in and I don't think it is even the play in game.
Look at the bubble right now. Look at the records and RPI's of some that Lunardi has in front of us now.
I like positive predictions...I'm hoping you are right. Still scared of two losses....will be at Xavier game and hope to make the Creighton game...got to get wins in both.
Quote from: willie warrior on February 14, 2014, 11:28:03 AM
Go 5-2 puts at 19-12 with an RPI in low 50's. Won't get in with that, unless we win two in BEast tourney and then will be iffy. Of course with such a huge soft bubble this year, according to some "experts" with about 50 teams in that softie, who knows?
Every time you assess the merits of a team making the tourney you have to consider its competition. You can't assess a team's chances in a vacuum then assess them again with the backdrop of this year's "bubble." The latter must necessarily be considered with the former. You should consult our guy, Einstein, he's a cool dude.
Quote from: HaywardsHeroes32 on February 14, 2014, 11:34:16 AM
Win 1 in BET with that and we are in and I don't think it is even the play in game.
Look at the bubble right now. Look at the records and RPI's of some that Lunardi has in front of us now.
Sorry Hayward, cannot agree--winning one BEast game means we also lose one--giving us a 20-13 record(based on going 5-2 in regular season). If you are right, great. Just cannot seeing getting in at 20-13. Many bubble teams out there.
Quote from: willie warrior on February 14, 2014, 01:54:44 PM
Sorry Hayward, cannot agree--winning one BEast game means we also lose one--giving us a 20-13 record(based on going 5-2 in regular season). If you are right, great. Just cannot seeing getting in at 20-13. Many bubble teams out there.
Many bubble teams out there and many of them aren't better than MU.