Currently we sit at #57... I wonder how much this will change over the rest of the year. Our adjusted tempo is lower than normal, but not surprising because our strength is our frontcourt, and we shouldn't be a transition team. Also our Luck is extremely low (313 of 351 teams), which basically means we are performing well below Ken's model's expectations.
Quote from: Hards_Alumni on January 30, 2014, 07:47:39 AM
Currently we sit at #57... I wonder how much this will change over the rest of the year. Our adjusted tempo is lower than normal, but not surprising because our strength is our frontcourt, and we shouldn't be a transition team. Also our Luck is extremely low (313 of 351 teams), which basically means we are performing well below Ken's model's expectations.
Not going to do it now, but I could get into where the changes will likely be in the model from here to the end of the year. What is interesting to me is how people often refer to advanced stats without considering the specifics.. the story is usually far deeper than what it may seem on the surface... anyway...
a few other comments on your specific assertions...
- "Adjusted tempo is lower than normal" - Need to be careful with your words here - difficult to tell what you're trying to say. MU's tempo lower than the average of all D-I teams, but up from last year (although this year will trend toward last year because of slower tempo in conference play). At seasons end I'd expect the average tempo of all D-I teams to be up a bit from last season due to more fouls being called. Ironically this has hosed up what many would call 'tempo', but in the context of tempo = possessions it's added to it.
- Now, is MU's tempo lower than average because "our strength is our frontcourt, and we shouldn't be a transition team"?... MU's transition attempts are up this year compared to last season.. this year will continue to trend downward, but season to date vs. all of last year, we're up by a good margin... last year it was Van & Junior.. this year it's everyone, led by Jamil, Toddler and Davante. The bad is that we're converting attempts at a lesser rate. The piece that has increased the most is quick strikes after an opponent scores on us.. we're doing this more often in 2013-14 than we did last year.
- MU's tempo is in a fine spot for their make up. Their offensive possessions are actually not the reason for pace being as "low" as it is - it's defense and that's mostly a good thing. The Warriors have chopped their late possession (last 5 seconds of the shot clock) FGA's down by about 50% this year. We had a ton of late possession prayers hoisted last season. Doing much better at limiting those this year.
- " Also our Luck is extremely low (313 of 351 teams), which basically means we are performing well below Ken's model's expectations."... again it's difficult to tell what you're trying to say... if you're trying to say "our win-loss record is worse than what the model would have expected" then I'm with you... i.e., "our performance suggests our win-loss record would be expected to be better than it actually is"
Quote from: Jay Bee on January 30, 2014, 08:17:03 AM
Not going to do it now, but I could get into where the changes will likely be in the model from here to the end of the year. What is interesting to me is how people often refer to advanced stats without considering the specifics.. the story is usually far deeper than what it may seem on the surface... anyway...
a few other comments on your specific assertions...
- "Adjusted tempo is lower than normal" - Need to be careful with your words here - difficult to tell what you're trying to say. MU's tempo lower than the average of all D-I teams, but up from last year (although this year will trend toward last year because of slower tempo in conference play). At seasons end I'd expect the average tempo of all D-I teams to be up a bit from last season due to more fouls being called. Ironically this has hosed up what many would call 'tempo', but in the context of tempo = possessions it's added to it.
- Now, is MU's tempo lower than average because "our strength is our frontcourt, and we shouldn't be a transition team"?... MU's transition attempts are up this year compared to last season.. this year will continue to trend downward, but season to date vs. all of last year, we're up by a good margin... last year it was Van & Junior.. this year it's everyone, led by Jamil, Toddler and Davante. The bad is that we're converting attempts at a lesser rate. The piece that has increased the most is quick strikes after an opponent scores on us.. we're doing this more often in 2013-14 than we did last year.
- MU's tempo is in a fine spot for their make up. Their offensive possessions are actually not the reason for pace being as "low" as it is - it's defense and that's mostly a good thing. The Warriors have chopped their late possession (last 5 seconds of the shot clock) FGA's down by about 50% this year. We had a ton of late possession prayers hoisted last season. Doing much better at limiting those this year.
- " Also our Luck is extremely low (313 of 351 teams), which basically means we are performing well below Ken's model's expectations."... again it's difficult to tell what you're trying to say... if you're trying to say "our win-loss record is worse than what the model would have expected" then I'm with you... i.e., "our performance suggests our win-loss record would be expected to be better than it actually is"
Yes, that is what I'm trying to say.
Quote from: Jay Bee on January 30, 2014, 08:17:03 AM
Not going to do it now, but I could get into where the changes will likely be in the model from here to the end of the year. What is interesting to me is how people often refer to advanced stats without considering the specifics.. the story is usually far deeper than what it may seem on the surface... anyway...
a few other comments on your specific assertions...
- "Adjusted tempo is lower than normal" - Need to be careful with your words here - difficult to tell what you're trying to say. MU's tempo lower than the average of all D-I teams, but up from last year (although this year will trend toward last year because of slower tempo in conference play). At seasons end I'd expect the average tempo of all D-I teams to be up a bit from last season due to more fouls being called. Ironically this has hosed up what many would call 'tempo', but in the context of tempo = possessions it's added to it.
- Now, is MU's tempo lower than average because "our strength is our frontcourt, and we shouldn't be a transition team"?... MU's transition attempts are up this year compared to last season.. this year will continue to trend downward, but season to date vs. all of last year, we're up by a good margin... last year it was Van & Junior.. this year it's everyone, led by Jamil, Toddler and Davante. The bad is that we're converting attempts at a lesser rate. The piece that has increased the most is quick strikes after an opponent scores on us.. we're doing this more often in 2013-14 than we did last year.
- MU's tempo is in a fine spot for their make up. Their offensive possessions are actually not the reason for pace being as "low" as it is - it's defense and that's mostly a good thing. The Warriors have chopped their late possession (last 5 seconds of the shot clock) FGA's down by about 50% this year. We had a ton of late possession prayers hoisted last season. Doing much better at limiting those this year.
- " Also our Luck is extremely low (313 of 351 teams), which basically means we are performing well below Ken's model's expectations."... again it's difficult to tell what you're trying to say... if you're trying to say "our win-loss record is worse than what the model would have expected" then I'm with you... i.e., "our performance suggests our win-loss record would be expected to be better than it actually is"
If you have the time, could you get into more specifics on the comment that I bolded? This seems to be at odds with the numerous claims that our transition offense is abysmal this year (usually used as a condemnation of DW).
We're unlucky? Where are the defenders of all that is right and holy? Get out your pitchforks and go after this Pomeroy guy - he's nothing but an excuse makin', blue and gold glasses wearin', Buzz lovin' slurper.