Analyzing Marquette in late-game situationsMarquette has played some of the best defense in the country this season. Ken Pom ranks the Golden Eagles as the 42nd most efficient defensive group, their 0.785 PPP-against entering Thursday ranked in the 92nd percentile nationally and opponents are making just 42 percent of their 2-pointers, the 20th best mark in the nation. Thanks [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=painttouches.com&blog=28348875&post=10236&subd=painttouches&ref=&feed=1" width="1" height="1" />
Source: Analyzing Marquette in late-game situations (http://painttouches.com/2014/01/10/analyzing-marquette-in-late-game-situations/)
I hate to bump my own stuff, but I think this might offer some clarity on who's taking late-game shots and why Jamil fouling out was such a big deal last night. Also, the defense surprisingly been awful down the stretch. Interested to hear thoughts.
Getting outscored down the stretch in close games generally leads to losses...? ;)
PT, thanks for the analysis ... as always, it is good stuff.
In your last graph, you state J. Wilson is a "go to guy." He will may be. However, it would appear from your numbers that he might not be a very dependable "go to guy" - as in, "that guy is really inconsistent."
The only dependable offensive player down the stretch appears to be Gardner. But, without the guard strength (driving and dishing off) getting the ball into Gardner becomes "iffy" at the end of a game - as in, the other team will do anything to keep it out of his hands.
Regardless, one way, or another, with the exception of ASU, the offense seems to, more or less, get the job done in the final six minutes.
As to the defense being the ultimate cause of the close game losses, I ask you why?
What are the Warriors doing/not doing down the stretch that allows a team to outscore them? Could it simply be the Warriors having to play catch-up and not being able to snatch a lead as they did against the Blue Demons? And, as they failed to do against Xavier? Is it because Coach Williams has his best offensive players on the court at the end? Have the Warriors tired themselves out in catching-up, and become a half-step slower in their defensive ball rotation? Do they change defenses at games end?
The numbers you provide are insightful and thought provoking. It would be helpful, especially regarding lack-luster defense, to try and get closer to the "why."
Thank you for all your fine work.