Can the MU Offense Be Good Again Soon?
I was throwing out some info on twitter (https://twitter.com/CrackedSidewlks), and decided to make it a little more long-form.
I've been running some numbers, and the #mubb offense may not be that far from being good. Hear me out. I think the MU offense is pretty close to being fixable instead of the train wreck it's been.
First, a quick recap of the Four Factors and their importance: Offense is about 50% eFG%, 24% Turnovers, 22% OR%, and 4% FTR. eFG% is by far the most important aspect of an offense (or defense). In Marquette's average games (about 1.06 ppp), and also generally over the past 10 games, the eFG% has been showing signs of life. Of course, this doesn't reflect the game at Creighton. However, the #mubb average eFG% in November was (44.9%) but it improved in December to 51.2%.
If eFG% can stay in the 51-52% range, then it's really just a matter of some improvement on either OR% or TORate for #mubb. How much? Honestly, it's not that much improvement. It could be as little as 2-4 more ORs per game or 2-3 fewer turnovers.
I really think #mubb is that close to being solid offensively again. But there's a challenge. The best offensive rebounding lineup for #mubb isn't close to the best ball protection lineup. However, Buzz is smart. The lineup getting the most minutes for #mubb lately? His top Offensive Rebounding lineup. The lineup getting the #2 amount of minutes? His top ball protect lineup. Again, Buzz knows what he's doing. Really, none of this should be a surprise. Buzz knows how to make an offense work. It's just taking a little longer.
Here are some numbers to note: Assuming #mubb can keep the eFG% up, 12-14 offensive rebounds per game and 13 turnovers or less per game are the target. Of course, this all assumes that #mubb has the eFG% on track <cough -="" creighton="">. Because if the eFG% stays at the current ranking/level (around 49%), there is virtually zero chance the offense improves</cough>
The key is the mediocre offensive performances. #mubb's TO% has been around 20% in those. Improving to 17% is about two TOs. That's it. The eFG% has been legit in those games. Keep the eFG% at a good level and then it's just some tinkering on ORs or TOs to turn the corner. For example, had Marquette protected the ball at an average rate vs DPU, the efficiency would have been 1.20 ppp.
Am I saying that Marquette will be awesome or win the BE title? No. All I am saying is that the #mubb offense may be better than we think sooner than we think. A few more ORs or a few less TOs would make the difference between #mubb having a #110 offense and a Top 50 offense.
Source: Can the MU Offense Be Good Again Soon? (http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2014/01/can-mu-offense-be-good-again-soon.html)
Someone else slurping my Kool-Aid, soon I'll have to be making more.
One key point here to recap. If the eFG% stays at the current ranking/level where it is listed on Pomeroy (about 49%), it will be practically impossible for MU's offense to get better. Everything hinges on the eFG% improving.
Quote from: LittleMurs on January 08, 2014, 02:37:48 PM
Someone else slurping my Kool-Aid, soon I'll have to be making more.
Pour me another! And a double for my friend Willie!
Good again? Only if the Best players-play, 32 to 35 min, DG,Mayo and Jamil. The rest is all crap. And don't tell me about Def.,Mayo is the best defender on the team,with Devante and Jamil being average but with the rest of their game, should always be on the floor. If Devante doesn't get 30 min we will lose to all top 20 teams.
Offense? We don't need no stinking offense! We defend the 3 really well!
Quote from: Henry Sugar on January 08, 2014, 02:42:24 PM
One key point here to recap. If the eFG% stays at the current ranking/level where it is listed on Pomeroy (about 49%), it will be practically impossible for MU's offense to get better. Everything hinges on the eFG% improving.
I am skeptable about it improving much. However, cutting down on turnovers and get more offensive rebounds would improve the offense. Shooting better at free throw line would also help.
Quote from: muchamps on January 08, 2014, 04:58:21 PM
Good again? Only if the Best players-play, 32 to 35 min, DG,Mayo and Jamil. The rest is all crap. And don't tell me about Def.,Mayo is the best defender on the team,with Devante and Jamil being average but with the rest of their game, should always be on the floor. If Devante doesn't get 30 min we will lose to all top 20 teams.
Who is Devante?
Quote from: newsdrms on January 08, 2014, 08:28:05 PM
Who is Devante?
Pretty sure Devante plays up front with O'tule.
Quote from: muchamps on January 08, 2014, 04:58:21 PM
Good again? Only if the Best players-play, 32 to 35 min, DG,Mayo and Jamil. The rest is all crap. And don't tell me about Def.,Mayo is the best defender on the team,with Devante and Jamil being average but with the rest of their game, should always be on the floor. If Devante doesn't get 30 min we will lose to all top 20 teams.
Davante will struggle when on the floor with Derrick Wilson against a team that knows what it is doing (hint: not DePaul). DePaul guarded Derrick Wilson relatively closely and did not cheat with Thomas' man, allowing Gardner to go one on one. DePaul sometimes doubled with Derrick's man, but waited until Gardner got the ball. Derrick alertly went (or Buzz alertly sent him) to the opposite side of the floor to make the defender go further to double, giving Gardner the time he needed to make his move. Gardner is tough to stop with one guy in college. If our opponent cheats off of Derrick like they should and doubles Davante immediately on the catch or before the catch if it comes from Derrick, it is tough for Davante to operate.
Buzz keeps trying to find ways to hide Derrick. Our best hope is to run into stubborn teams who "play defense the way we play defense," preferably tight man to man, and don't change their philosophy much based on their opponent. Using Derrick's man to play a one man zone has been very effective against us and we haven't really had a great answer. I think in those cases we should try using Derrick (who has to play unless we are willing to use Dawson or Mayo at PG) as a screener for Thomas so Gardner has a kick-out passing option.