Because this team ain't getting an at large, even winning regular season BE title.
Quote from: MUDish on December 21, 2013, 10:20:03 PM
Because this team ain't getting an at large, even winning regular season BE title.
I'm down on them too... but that part is really, really dumb.
Yep, no quality non-con wins
Quote from: jesmu84 on December 21, 2013, 10:24:06 PM
except for GW...
For now...that RPI will likely fall big time come March
I know Derrick Wilson is good and a tough player, but I am for giving duane the keys to this team when he gets healthy. Not that I don't like derrick but in late game situations we need a guard who can shoot. So much time goes off the clock trying to find someone open because the man guarding Derrick can lay off him.
Quote from: MUfan12 on December 21, 2013, 10:22:10 PM
I'm down on them too... but that part is really, really dumb.
Name one quality non conference win. I'll wait...and wait...and wait.
Likely a good time to consider who can redshirt. This team doesn't have it. Go .500 in league play and play a few games after the season in NIT or something similar and build from there.
Quote from: MUDish on December 21, 2013, 10:26:35 PM
Name one quality non conference win. I'll wait...and wait...and wait.
GW is top-50 RPI. Your wait is over.
Quote from: hilltopper03 on December 21, 2013, 10:26:26 PM
I know Derrick Wilson is good and a tough player, but I am for giving duane the keys to this team when he gets healthy.
Or redshirting him. Just don't put him in to play 4 mpg the rest of the way.
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 21, 2013, 10:31:59 PM
GW is top-50 RPI. Your wait is over.
And the BE isn't a one bid league. The champ will get a bid.
It's okay, we all say dumb stuff. I'll wait for you to admit it.
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 21, 2013, 10:31:59 PM
GW is top-50 RPI. Your wait is over.
Still waiting...
I agree with Glockner on twitter.
"1-5. Not good."
Quote from: MUDish on December 21, 2013, 10:20:03 PM
Because this team ain't getting an at large, even winning regular season BE title.
A bit extreme. Let's see how good the conference is. Also hoping Duane Wilson is all he is cracked up to be. Oh, and maybe the guys and coaching improves.
Quote from: MUfan12 on December 21, 2013, 10:38:23 PM
And the BE isn't a one bid league. The champ will get a bid.
It's okay, we all say dumb stuff. I'll wait for you to admit it.
Where is MU getting enough quality wins from in conference? If this was the old Big East, ok. This Big East? No way.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on December 21, 2013, 10:40:50 PM
A bit extreme. Let's see how good the conference is. Also hoping Duane Wilson is all he is cracked up to be. Oh, and maybe the guys and coaching improves.
7-5 out of conference, no quality wins. Where in conference are these wins coming from? Nova and Creighton are quality. Xavier, G-Town...Meh.
Opportunity presented itself, didn't work out. We are what our record says we are.
Quote from: MUDish on December 21, 2013, 10:41:07 PM
Where is MU getting enough quality wins from in conference? If this was the old Big East, ok. This Big East? No way.
You're too dense for me to continue arguing with.
Quote from: MUDish on December 21, 2013, 10:43:44 PM
7-5 out of conference, no quality wins. Where in conference are these wins coming from? Nova and Creighton are quality. Xavier, G-Town...Meh.
Opportunity presented itself, didn't work out. We are what our record says we are.
I do not disagree with you, but that's why I am hoping there is coaching improvement, a burst of energy from Taylor and Duane and hopefully some better results. We'll see how it goes, certainly disappointing thus far.
Quote from: MUfan12 on December 21, 2013, 10:47:59 PM
You're too dense for me to continue arguing with.
Fantastic, have yourself a swell Christmas.
Dish, I feel bad too, but if they win the BE season they will get abid.
Mind you, I do not think that is going to happen.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on December 21, 2013, 10:48:26 PM
I do not disagree with you, but that's why I am hoping their is coaching improvement, a burst of energy from Taylor and Duane and hopefully some better results. We'll see how it goes, certainly disappointing thus far.
The conference is what it is. There's no UConn, Cuse, Ville to go steal a real quality win from this year.
Not to you Chicos, but I never said it was a one bid league. I said MU doesn't have enough opportunities to build their resume. That door was open, now it's not.
Let's be realistic - IF we win 12 games in the BE, is that enough? Probably not. As much as we all loved the new big east split thing, the lack of Cuse and Lville, etc... is going to ruin any chance we have of covering for a poor a Non con showing...
13-5 in the Big East, as long as a couple of those wins are against whatever teams end up having the highest RPIs, will probably get 'er done.
It's hard to envision this team winning 13 league games, but I only thought last year's team would go 9-9 in a much more stout BE, so I'm reserving judgment for now.
This starting back court is not going 13-5 in the Big East.
The Big East is currently ranked as the 4th best conference in the nation. The top four teams will get bids at very least. If Marquette is in that top four, they will be in.
We need to stop underestimating our own conference. Yes we no longer get the chance for victories over the top 10 but there are no bad teams in our conference. Every team will be in the RPI top 150. Those wins start to add up.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on December 22, 2013, 01:34:05 AM
The Big East is currently ranked as the 4th best conference in the nation. The top four teams will get bids at very least. If Marquette is in that top four, they will be in.
We need to stop underestimating our own conference. Yes we no longer get the chance for victories over the top 10 but there are no bad teams in our conference. Every team will be in the RPI top 150. Those wins start to add up.
That's more a reflection of the lack of a truly bad team than overall conference strength.
Take a hypothetical comparison of two 5-team conferences with the following team ranks:
Conference A:
58, 59, 60, 61, and 62: Average rank of 60th
Conference B:
1, 2, 3, 4, and 300: Average rank of 62nd.
Under the same logic that makes us the 4th best conference, in this example, Conference A is ranked a better conference than Conference B. Yet conference B would easily have 4 NCAA at large bids, and A would have none
That's why nobody here should care about conference rankings--teams get bids, not conferences.
And the reality is that there are only two teams right now who have RPIs that fall within the traditional range of NCAA at-large selections--Villanova (11th) and Butler (30th).
Georgetown is 72nd. Xavier is 86th. Creighton is 57th. St. Johns is 67th. Providence is 64th. MU is 99th.
The only team that would create something for the Selection committee to talk about is if we beat Villanova.
If this team goes .500 in conference, obviously we have problems. I tend to think it will be something between 11-7 and 14-4. This team is pretty good, just hasn't executed in close games on the road yet. They will continue to develop and be dancing come March, but a good portion of their margin for error has now evaporated.
Quote from: MUDish on December 21, 2013, 10:38:34 PM
Still waiting...
I agree with Glockner on twitter.
"1-5. Not good."
No, you're not. You said one. I gave you one. You agree with Glockner, who also said one.
I'm not saying I'm happy with one. I'm not saying it's ideal. I'm saying you asked for one, we have one, so there's really nothing more to discuss regarding that point. You can say one isn't good enough, one won't get us into the Dance, or we need 14+ Big East wins to get in as an at-large, but you can't say we don't have one. We do. Not that complicated.
Losing this one was big. However, this does not mean we have to win the BE tourney to get in. If we don't win the BE Tourney the following must occur:
- Go at least 13-5 in conference
- Get at least one big road win (e.g. Villanova, G'Town, Creighton, Xavier)
- No bad losses at home (e.g. Seton Hall, DePaul, Samford)
- Make a good showing in the BE Tourney. One and out with even above may not be good enough
Let's assume 2-1 in the BET and 13-5 in conference. That would be 23-11. Given above, that is definitely good enough to get an at-large bid.
Anything less than this and we could be in trouble.
Quote from: MarquetteDano on December 22, 2013, 12:12:25 PM
Losing this one was big. However, this does not mean we have to win the BE tourney to get in. If we don't win the BE Tourney the following must occur:
- Go at least 13-5 in conference
- Get at least one big road win (e.g. Villanova, G'Town, Creighton, Xavier)
- No bad losses at home (e.g. Seton Hall, DePaul, Samford)
- Make a good showing in the BE Tourney. One and out with even above may not be good enough
Let's assume 2-1 in the BET and 13-5 in conference. That would be 23-11. Given above, that is definitely good enough to get an at-large bid.
Anything less than this and we could be in trouble.
This. Necessary win total might be +/-1, but this analysis makes sense.
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 22, 2013, 11:08:25 AM
No, you're not. You said one. I gave you one. You agree with Glockner, who also said one.
I'm not saying I'm happy with one. I'm not saying it's ideal. I'm saying you asked for one, we have one, so there's really nothing more to discuss regarding that point. You can say one isn't good enough, one won't get us into the Dance, or we need 14+ Big East wins to get in as an at-large, but you can't say we don't have one. We do. Not that complicated.
Agree to disagree.
Quote from: MUDish on December 22, 2013, 12:55:22 PM
Agree to disagree.
I agree that we disagree, but your entire argument is based on a fallacy. As of this point in time, GW is a good win. The (admittedly unreliable) season projections concur that GW will continue to be a good win.
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 22, 2013, 02:06:20 PM
I agree that we disagree, but your entire argument is based on a fallacy. As of this point in time, GW is a good win. The (admittedly unreliable) season projections concur that GW will continue to be a good win.
I think there's a difference between the absolute definitions as compared to the qualtative discussions the committee will have at the end of the year.
By the strictest definitions of "good win", George Washington is in the top 100.
But I don't think anyone considers GW at a level where a win over them gives you the same creditiblity as a win over #38 Memphis or #40 New Mexico, even though mathematcially Memphis, GW and New Mexico are very similar.
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 22, 2013, 02:06:20 PM
I agree that we disagree, but your entire argument is based on a fallacy. As of this point in time, GW is a good win. The (admittedly unreliable) season projections concur that GW will continue to be a good win.
GW is 68 in Ken Pom. That screams quality win, you are right, my bad.
Yeah, I am sure that lone GW win will undoubtedly impress the selection committee. Maybe they will like that Southern win too.
l
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 21, 2013, 10:31:59 PM
GW is top-50 RPI. Your wait is over.
Quote from: madtownwarrior on December 22, 2013, 05:00:31 PM
Yeah, I am sure that lone GW win will undoubtedly impress the selection committee. Maybe they will like that Southern win too.
That's not the point. The point is he said one quality win. Generally, top-50 RPI is considered a quality win. I said myself that I'm not happy with it, but that doesn't change that it's on our resume.
Quote from: MUDish on December 21, 2013, 10:41:07 PM
Where is MU getting enough quality wins from in conference? If this was the old Big East, ok. This Big East? No way.
What are you talking about? 7 of the 10 Big East teams are in the Top 60 in KenPom.
Villanova (4)
Creighton (18)
Georgetown (32)
Marquette (41)
Xavier (47)
Butler (54)
St. John's (55)
Marquette will play the other 6 of those teams at least twice. So right there, that's 12 opportunities for a quality win.
Quote from: Buzz Williams' Spillproof Chiclets Cup on December 22, 2013, 05:45:30 PM
What are you talking about? 7 of the 10 Big East teams are in the Top 60 in KenPom.
Villanova (4)
Creighton (18)
Georgetown (32)
Marquette (41)
Xavier (47)
Butler (54)
St. John's (55)
Marquette will play the other 6 of those teams at least twice. So right there, that's 12 opportunities for a quality win.
And MU is going 12-0, right? XU, BU, Johnnie's...meh.